Wednesday brings a 10-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas: 219.5 Total, Clippers -5.5
This game boasts the slate’s highest Vegas total at 219.5 points, and both teams are gearing up for the playoffs. These teams played first in mid-December, and we actually had all the players healthy: The Clippers’ Big 3 each played at least 35 minutes, and John Wall and Bradley Beal went for 36 and 38 minutes. The Wizards won that game at home 117-110, and Beal notably put up 41 real points on 13-of-23 shooting.
Beal (53.75 DraftKings points), Wall (43.75), and Markieff Morris (46.25) all put up big games in that first meeting, and they are all better values on DraftKings today: They come with Bargain Ratings of 75, 97, and 81 percent. Beal and Morris have been poor of late, averaging Plus/Minus values of -1.74 and -2.85 over their last 10 games. Morris’ salary has dropped as a result: He has a Monthly Salary change of -$900, while Beal is now $400 more expensive. Wall, on the other hand, has been outstanding lately — he’s gone for over 61 DraftKings points in his last two games — and his salary has dropped $800 on DraftKings over the past month. Granted, his last two games did come against terrible defenses in the Lakers and Cavaliers, but he had 46 shot attempts in those two games. That’s incredible usage, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll be less aggressive tonight.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Here’s how the Clippers did against the Wiz in their first meeting:
- Blake Griffin: 46.25 DraftKings points, +6.1 Plus/Minus
- Chris Paul: 40.50 DraftKings points, -1.7 Plus/Minus
- DeAndre Jordan: 39.25 DraftKings points, +8.1 Plus/Minus
No other Clipper scored more than 20 fantasy points, and while they remain top-heavy in terms of minutes and usage they’ve really all just sucked as DFS assets lately. Look at Griffin’s recent production: He hasn’t exceeded 30 DraftKings points in four straight games:
They seem to be collapsing as a team and somehow blew an 18-point lead during the last five minutes against the lowly Kings. None of the Big 3 are safe enough for cash games, although Austin Rivers could enter that conversation if J.J. Redick (questionable with a sprained right ankle) is ruled out again. In Redick’s absence on Sunday, Rivers put up 24.8 FanDuel points in 42.5 minutes. That is terrible efficiency, but he’s also just $4,200; he needs only 16.3 points to hit value. Per the NBA On/Off tool, Jamal Crawford has seen the largest usage bump (+4.0 percentage points) in four games sans Redick this year, but Rivers has seen 6.3 more minutes.
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
Griffin: DFS Scouting Report
Jordan: DFS Scouting Report
Point Guards
Stud
Russell Westbrook has gone for 65-plus FanDuel points in each of his last two games and now faces an Orlando team that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.6 points per 100 possessions on the season. They played earlier this year in November, and Westbrook absolutely eviscerated them, putting up his best DFS performance of the year: 83.5 DraftKings points on a line of 41 points, 16 assists, and 12 rebounds. The most incredible thing about that performance is that somehow the Thunder lost 117-119. It’s probably not realistic to expect Westbrook to put up 83.5 DraftKings points again, but in the 34 games in which Westbrook has had a positive Opponent Plus/Minus this season he’s averaged 70.18 DraftKings points (per our Trends tool):
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Malcolm Brogdon remains cheap at only $5,100 on DraftKings and faces a Boston team that has been below-average against opposing PGs this season, allowing a +3.07 Plus/Minus on 57.3 percent Consistency. That is mostly because of the poor defensive play of Isaiah Thomas, who ranks literally last (by a mile, too) out of 460 NBA players this season with a -4.25 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Brogdon has seen consistent minutes of late — he’s gone at least 29 in each of his last four games — and he’s coming off an impressive 14-10 double-double against the Hornets last night. They’re on a road back-to-back, but that’s actually the situation in which Brogdon has been at his best this season:
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder: Has averaged a +5.25 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 and faces a Philly team that has defended at a league-worst rate this season without Joel Embiid on the floor
Mike Conley: Has a poor -2.34 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus but has averaged a 30.4 percent usage rate in 37.7 minutes per game this season without Marc Gasol, who is out with a strained left foot
Shooting Guards
Stud
Of the high-priced studs at the position today, they’ve either been very poor lately (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Beal) or have tough matchups (DeMar DeRozan and Klay Thompson). Beal has the best history versus his competition, as noted above, but Giannis still boasts the position’s highest projected ceiling. He posted just 37.2 FanDuel points in their only meeting this season, and he’s been awful as a large dog this season, posting a -7.04 Plus/Minus in nine games when he’s been a seven-point or larger dog (they’re eight-point dogs currently) — but this is a ‘pace-up’ game, and he’s posted a +4.28 Plus/Minus in games this season in which he’s had a pace differential (paceD) of at least two possessions per 48 minutes. Again, there’s risk with all of these guys, so you might as well shoot for the guy with the highest ceiling, right?
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Thompson: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Victor Oladipo was certainly overshadowed by Westbrook and Serge Ibaka in that first Magic-Thunder game, finishing with only 17.2 FanDuel points. That said, that was within the first two weeks of the year — he was adjusting to his new team — and he’s been excellent lately, averaging a +3.24 Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games. He’s shown a very narrow range of shot attempts — he’s been between 13 and 15 in each of his last nine games — and remains affordable on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with a 75 percent Bargain Rating. He has averaged 27.17 FanDuel points on 63.6 percent Consistency as a road favorite this season, and he will likely be a popular value play today given his consistency of late and the #RevengeGame narrative.
Fast Break
Rodney Hood: Has averaged 26.76 FanDuel points and a +6.0 Plus/Minus in 31.5 minutes per game without Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks this season; faces a Kings team that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.9 points/100
Josh Richardson: Has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games and has played at least 31 minutes in each of his last six; faces a Knicks team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.6 points/100
Small Forwards
Stud
I’m going to keep riding the Playoff Paul George train until it dies. He continued his aggressive ways last night, putting up 55.4 FanDuel points in 39.5 minutes against the Timberwolves, who rank 10th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break. He put up 37 real points and even complained about not getting the ball more after the game; it’s safe to say the Pacers should continue to feed him tonight. He’s been an incredible DFS asset of late . . .
. . . and his -0.6 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus today is certainly misleading: Memphis has ranked 26th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, allowing a poor 109.9 points/100, and they’ll be without Gasol (their defensive anchor) again. He leads the position with 13 FanDuel Pro Trends, which Pro subscribers can access in our Player Models.
George: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Taurean Prince has played 35.9 and 38.5 minutes over the last two games, and he’ll likely have to play a lot again tonight with Paul Millsap and Thabo Sefolosha out again for the Hawks. Kent Bazemore should be back tonight and will likely get the starting nod over Prince (that actually might help him avoid Robert Covington‘s stellar defense), but Prince should still see about 30 minutes against a Philadelphia team that has allowed a league-worst Defensive Rating without Embiid this season. Prince has four steals and three blocks over his last two games, and he has a lot of defensive upside in this matchup, as Philly ranks dead last in turnover rate, coughing up the ball on 15.0 percent of their possessions. Prince remains way too underpriced on FanDuel, where his $3,800 salary comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Kawhi Leonard: Has put up back-to-back games of 46-plus FanDuel points and has his highest Plus/Minus average this season against the Warriors, with 53.5 fantasy points against them in his one meeting
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Carmelo Anthony: Just $6,700 on DraftKings, which is his second-lowest salary ($6,500 last game) recorded for him in our database
Anthony: DFS Scouting Report
Power Forwards
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis went off for 48.1 FanDuel points on Monday against the Pistons, hitting 10 of his 16 shots for 25 points and eight rebounds. He’s increased his shot attempts lately — he got up to 21 just three games ago against the Blazers — and it’s translated to nice consistency: He’s averaged a +7.48 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, one of which is due to his being a home underdog: The Heat currently sit as three-point favorites over the Knicks. In 15 such instances this season, Kristaps has averaged 34.07 FanDuel points and a +5.60 Plus/Minus:
He is especially cheap on FanDuel, where his $7,200 salary comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Gasol was out for the Grizzlies on Monday, and Zach Randolph went off for 39.0 FanDuel points thanks to 17 points and 15 rebounds in 31.7 minutes. He has averaged 2.6 more minutes without Gasol in the lineup, although he has been less efficient, scoring at a rate of 0.97 FanDuel points per minute during that time. Still, he’s only $5,600 and gets an Indiana team that ranks 26th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 48.4 percent of the available boards. He has a 98 percent Bargain Rating and a huge Projected Plus/Minus: Players this season with a Bargain Rating at least 90 percent and a FanDuel Projected Plus/Minus of at least +7.0 have hit value 75 percent of the time and have hit the “Upside” threshold 11 percent of the time.
Fast Break
Ersan Ilyasova: Has averaged a +4.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games; has averaged 30 minutes and a +9.0 Plus/Minus in six games this season starting for Millsap
Anthony Davis: Just dropped 75.25 DraftKings points against the tough Utah Jazz defense, has at least 12 rebounds in each of his last six games, and faces a Dallas team today that ranks dead last in rebound rate on the year
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
Centers
Stud
DraftKings finally raised the price of Rudy Gobert up to $8,600, which was certainly warranted, as he’s been elite over his last 10 games:
A +13.3 Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency is just ridiculous, and he’s likely still underpriced: His salary requires just 40.65 fantasy points, and he’s been way above that over his last six games; he put up 58.25 DraftKings points in 39.5 minutes on Monday against Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. He has a much easier matchup today against a Sacramento team that ranks 25th in offensive efficiency since the All-Star break, scoring just 102.3 points/100, and 28th in rebound rate over that same time frame, grabbing just 47.4 percent of the available boards. In similar situations (games against the worst three rebounding teams), Gobert has averaged 43.08 points and 100 percent Consistency.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Myles Turner has been fantastic of late, averaging a +5.63 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency. He has posted at least two blocks in each of his last five games, and he’ll face a Grizzlies team today without Marc Gasol. Again, they’ve been poor defensively with or without Gasol since the All-Star break — they rank 26th on defense during that time, allowing 109.9 points/100 — and their Defensive Rating of 107.3 without Gasol all year would rank bottom-10. Turner is on the road today, and he admittedly has negative home/away splits this year:
- Home: 35.31 DraftKings points, +6.1 Plus/Minus
- Away: 28.30 DraftKings points, -1.2 Plus/Minus
That said, he’s inexpensive at $6,400 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel, and he put up 32.0 DraftKings points this season against Memphis with Gasol.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic: Leads all FanDuel centers with 12 Pro Trends and has averaged a +7.59 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games
Guillermo Hernangomez: Has a +2.84 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus against the Heat; has averaged 32.23 FanDuel points in 27.7 minutes per game over the last three games without Lance Thomas
Hassan Whiteside and Dwight Howard: Both boast massive FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus marks of +5.24 and +6.00; Howard has averaged 37.08 FanDuel points in six March games sans Millsap, Whiteside put up 49.3 FanDuel points in his first meeting against the Knicks this year
Whiteside: DFS Scouting Report
Good luck!
News Updates
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