Wednesday brings an eight-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets
This game has the highest Vegas total of the night at 228.5 points and includes two teams that have struggled to defend of late: Since the All-Star break over a month ago, Cleveland and Denver rank 21st and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.5 and 110.4 points per 100 possessions. Further, both teams boast top-five offenses during that time span, scoring 111.0 and 109.8 points per 100 possessions. There could be some points scored tonight.
Despite what LeBron James‘ minute load should be, he’s been playing a ton of minutes all season:
In turn, he’s been remarkable against all foes, averaging a +6.67 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
LeBron has been at his best in close games (per our Trends tool), and the Cavs are currently only 3.5-point road favorites tonight:
James: DFS Scouting Report
Not much needs to be said about Kyrie Irving. The Nuggets remain the worst team in the league versus opposing PGs this year . . .
. . . and Kyrie scored 40.3 FanDuel points against them in their first meeting this season. He’s also coming off a game on Sunday in which he dropped 49.9 FanDuel points on 46 real points. At $9,000 FanDuel, he needs just 37.37 points to hit value today.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
Most of the other Cavs are more likely to played in guaranteed prize pools than cash games due to their minutes: J.R. Smith, Tristan Thompson, and Kevin Love have been getting between 25-30 minutes over the last couple of games. Love and Thompson both exceeded salary-based expectations in their first meeting against the Nuggets, and Thompson was particularly valuable, putting up a +12.53 FanDuel Plus/Minus. They should both be low-owned tonight given their recent volatility.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
On the other side of the ball, Jameer Nelson and Nikola Jokic put up good games against the Cavs in their first meeting:
That said, this Nuggets team is different now and will certainly be affected by a couple fluid injury situations. Darrell Arthur is “on track” to play tonight after missing three games with a sore left knee, Wilson Chandler is questionable with a right groin contusion, and Danilo Gallinari is doubtful with a left knee bone bruise. Without those guys this season, a lot of value has opened up: Gary Harris, Will Barton, Jameer Nelson, and Juancho Hernangomez have all averaged DraftKings Plus/Minus values of at least +6.0 in those contests (per our NBA On/Off tool).
Arthur’s probable status likely doesn’t affect things too much — he’ll see reduced minutes with Jokic, Kenneth Faried, and Mason Plumlee all vying for frontcourt minutes — but Chandler’s status is important. When he’s been off the court this year, Hernangomez has averaged 15.1 more minutes and 11.1 more DraftKings points per game. Hernangomez could still start in Gallo’s place (per our Matchups tool) . . .
. . . but he would be less of a slam-dunk cash-game option at $3,800 on FanDuel if Chandler is able to go.
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook has missed value in each of his last two games, but he’s still averaging a ridiculous +6.01 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
The Thunder are large (11-point) favorites over the 76ers, but Westbrook has been safe this season even in high-spread games, averaging 64.71 FanDuel points and a massive +13.17 Plus/Minus on 90.9 percent Consistency in 11 games as an eight-point or more favorite:
In their first meeting this year, Westbrook put up 57.9 FanDuel points; he needs 54.93 to hit value today.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
A potential pivot, John Wall has an excellent matchup against the Hawks, who have been the third-worst team in the NBA against opposing PGs this season, allowing a +4.68 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 67.8 percent Consistency:
That is especially impressive considering that, overall, the Hawks have an excellent defense: They rank fourth in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing just 103.7 points/100. The reason, of course, is that Dennis Schroder is one of the league’s worst defenders: He ranks 443rd out of 458 eligible NBA players with a -2.75 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM). Wall has struggled against the Hawks this year . . .
. . . but two of those games were within the first two weeks of the season. He’s a better value on DraftKings, where his $9,300 salary comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and 11 Pro Trends (available to Pro subscribers in our Player Models).
Rajon Rondo is an intriguing PG option today: He put up 46.0 FanDuel points last night against a great Raptors defense, but he struggled a bit in the first two games sans Dwyane Wade (elbow) and Cameron Payne (foot).
He’s had three tough matchups in a row, and today won’t be any easier against a Detroit team that ranks 24th in pace, 97.0 possessions/48, and ninth in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.0 points/100. That said, PG is definitely the position to attack the Pistons . . .
. . . and Rondo remains cheap, especially on FanDuel, where his $5,400 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guards
Victor Oladipo profiles more as a cash-game play — he’s had a very narrow range of outcomes — but he’s been a great one of late, with 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games . . .
. . . and he gets a bad Philly team that ranks fifth in pace this season, averaging 101.1 points/100. That said, he really struggled in his first meeting against Philly this season . . .
. . . and he should be guarded by Robert Covington, who ranks first among all SFs this season with a +3.66 DRPM. That said (again), the Thunder have a nice team total of 114.5 points, and Dipo has averaged 34.16 DraftKings points and a +5.51 Plus/Minus in similar situations. He’s the same price ($6,100) as Gary Harris on FanDuel, and that will certainly be a tough choice tonight.
Kent Bazemore and Paul Millsap will be out again tonight, which means that Tim Hardaway Jr. and Ersan Ilyasova should slide into starting spots.
Washington has a top-10 offense since the All-Star break, but they’ve continued to struggle defensively: The Wizards rank 18th in defensive efficiency during that time, allowing 106.1 points/100. Hardaway has been solid lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging a +5.24 FanDuel Plus/Minus over that time. That said, he did struggle in the first game sans Bazemore and Millsap, scoring just 14.7 FanDuel points in 33.3 minutes:
The Hawks played at a slow pace in that contest: When Hardaway was on the floor, they averaged just 89.79 possessions, which would be the slowest pace in the league by four full possessions per 48 minutes extrapolated out across the season. Still, it is hard to argue with 33.3 minutes at a low $5,400 price tag on FanDuel.
If you want to pay up at SG today, your options are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bradley Beal, both of whom have struggled mightily of late, each missing expectations in their last four games.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Instead, it might be wise to pivot to another mid-tier option like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Evan Fournier. KCP has hit value in each of his last two games but could be in a pace-down game today: The Bulls actually play slower without Wade in the lineup this year.
Fournier might be an intriguing option: He’s hit salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, and he’s put up a lot of 3-pointers of late.
Today, he gets a Hornets team that ranks dead last in the NBA in 3-pointers allowed per game (31.5), and Fournier is one of their only 3-point shooters.
Small Forwards
Sometimes DFS can be easy: Lots of people are likely to play Jimmy Butler without Wade in the lineup. Butler has averaged 49.8 FanDuel points and a massive +12.6 Plus/Minus in 38.8 minutes per game in 11 games this year sans Wade.
Wade has been out the last three games, and, as you might expect, Butler has been amazing, even in brutal matchups:
Detroit isn’t a cakewalk — the Pistons rank ninth in defensive efficiency on the year — but 38 minutes and a 30 percent usage rate is hard to fade no matter the matchup. Butler’s averaged 40.87 FanDuel points on perfect Consistency this season against the Pistons; his $8,900 salary requires just 36.93 points to hit value. (Pro subscribers can see the ownership for Butler and all other players in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.)
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Paul George and Gordon Hayward are right below Jimmy and LeBron in price point, and they’ll likely be low-owned as a result, but they’re both in excellent spots. George has been much more aggressive of late: He’s taken at least 19 shots in four of his last five games . . .
. . . and has averaged a +6.13 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10:
George: DFS Scouting Report
Hayward is coming off a 47.6-point FanDuel outing on Monday against PG and finally returns home for the first time in five games. He’s averaged a 28.8 percent usage rate this season without Derrick Favors on the floor.
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Power Forwards
Ersan Ilyasova hasn’t seen huge minutes of late . . .
. . . even though he started the last game for the injured Millsap. He’ll likely get the starting nod again, and even at around 27-28 minutes, he’s in play against a Washington team that ranks bottom-10 in points allowed per shot (1.25). The power forward position isn’t loaded today, and Ilyasova is one of the highest-rated players in the Phan Model for FanDuel, where his $4,500 salary comes with five Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. As mentioned recently in breakdowns, players with high Bargain Ratings have been very valuable this season:
Without Wade, Taj Gibson (traded), or Robin Lopez (could be suspended), the Bulls could be very thin, especially if Cristiano Felicio is ruled out after sitting out part of the second half last game with a back injury. Without those first three guys on the court this year, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis have posted usage rates of 23.3 and 23.4 percent as well as 0.92 and 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. They are both incredibly volatile options — they could see anywhere from 15 to 30 minutes — but they’re also very cheap at $4,400 and $4,000 on FanDuel.
If you want to pay up outside of Jokic, your options are limited to Love, Dario Saric, or Kristaps Porzingis. The latter is the cheapest of those guys at $6,500 on FanDuel, and he’s also been the most productive DFS asset recently, averaging a nice +6.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
He does have a brutal matchup against the Jazz, who rank last in pace, averaging 93.7 possessions/48, and third in defensive efficiency, allowing 102.2 points/100, but he’s shown he can overcome that matchup:
Centers
Dwight Howard has pulled down double-digit rebounds in each of his last 12 games, his usual backcourt mate in Millsap is out again tonight, and he’s facing a Washington team that ranks 25th in defensive rebound rate on the season, grabbing just 75.4 percent of the available boards. He’s been a nice DFS asset of late, averaging a +3.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10:
Further, he’s already played well against the Wizards three times this year (and that was with Millsap active):
Howard is likely to be a popular option at $6,800 on FanDuel, where he has 10 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Nikola Vucevic has absolutely dominated lately, posting a robust +7.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
He has put up some big totals, and he could do so again against a Charlotte team that hasn’t been great defending big men this season, as evidenced by Vuc’s +1.57 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s averaged 35.46 FanDuel points and a +6.45 Plus/Minus this season in games in which he’s had a positive Opponent Plus/Minus.
Rudy Gobert will likely be chalky. He’s just $7,700 on DraftKings and playing without his frontcourt mate in Favors. He has averaged 38.55 DraftKings points and a +7.3 Plus/Minus in 35.4 min/game this season without Favors:
Further, he’s facing a Knicks team that ranks dead last in defensive rebound rate and has allowed a +3.85 Plus/Minus to opposing centers on the season. He is projected for 21-25 percent ownership there.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
Good luck!
News Updates
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