Wednesday brings an 11-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers
The three highest-total games of today’s slate — Clippers/Rockets, Bucks/Nuggets, and Celtics/Cavs — all have spreads within 2.5 points. In fact, out of the 11 games tonight, only one (Pacers at Spurs) has a spread of 10-plus.
As we’ve discussed in many recent breakdowns, the Rockets are (from a DFS perspective) frustratingly deep. Take a look at how they performed on Monday against the Pacers (via our Trends tool):
Lou Williams continues to excel on his new team: He hit five of his 10 3-pointers on Monday and finished with 28 real points in 28.4 minutes. His high usage hurt the production of James Harden in their first two games, but Harden bounced back with a 56.8-point DraftKings performance on Monday with 17 field-goal attempts and 17 free throws. Instead, it was Eric Gordon who played only 26.2 minutes and finished with 13.3 DK points on 3-of-11 shooting. That will be a concern tonight, but Gordon’s also dipped below $5,000 DK for the first time since November. He’s enticing as an option in guaranteed prize pools.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
The big men continue to split minutes, and Nene will be an intriguing play at his low $3,500 price point. The matchup against the Clippers doesn’t seem ideal, but they’ve actually been below average this season against centers . . .
. . . and they’ve been especially bad of late:
Nene has absolutely crushed lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 games and averaging a massive +8.68 DK Plus/Minus over that time.
Blake Griffin has quietly been one of the best DFS assets in the league lately:
He’s averaged a robust +8.15 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, and he exploded for 69.5 DK points on Sunday versus Charlotte on 43 real points, 10 rebounds, and five assists. He also played well in the game before that versus the Spurs, which is coincidentally the game in which Chris Paul returned to the lineup. Griffin and CP3 have positive correlation this season . . .
. . . and they make for an interesting stack in GPPs against a Houston team that ranks third in pace, averaging 102.0 possessions per 48 minutes, and has struggled to defend big men.
Both Blake and CP3 are nice on DraftKings, where their salaries of $9,100 and $8,900 come with 12 and 11 Pro Trends (accessible by Pro subscribers in our Player Models) and Bargain Ratings of 97 and 95 percent. And don’t forget about DeAndre Jordan, who put up 55.3 DK points on Sunday and also has a large 93 percent DK Bargain Rating.
Griffin: DFS Scouting Report
Point Guards
Kyrie Irving is expensive at $8,700 DK and $9,100 FD, but he’s still been able to hit value of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games and averaging a +4.37 FD Plus/Minus over that time:
Without Kevin Love this year, he has increased his usage rate by a whopping 3.7 percent (per our On/Off tool) and has averaged 42.2 DK points in 35.0 minutes per game in those 10 contests. His salary continues to increase to account for Love’s absence, but tonight he gets a Boston team that’s defensively below average, allowing 106.1 points per 100 possessions on the year. There’s a solid chance that Avery Bradley could move onto Irving so the Celtics can hide Isaiah Thomas on Iman Shumpert, but Irving can win even that battle. Plus, during the minutes Shumpert is replaced by Kyle Korver and the Cavs have five legitimate shooters on the floor, it will be hard for Bradley stay on Irving.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
Speaking of Thomas: He’s an excellent GPP option in his own right. The Cavs have been the second-worst team defending PGs this season:
Since 2017 began they’ve been easily the worst in that category, allowing an average DK Plus/Minus of +8.4. Thomas has torched them in two meetings this year . . .
. . . and his price has come down lately: He’s only $8,500 on DK, where he has 11 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
The difference between Jrue Holiday‘s play before the All-Star break and after is stark:
As you know, the difference in Holiday’s pre- and post-ASB play is primarily due to the Pelicans’ addition of high-usage All-Star big DeMarcus Cousins, who is suspended tonight after receiving his 18th technical of the season on Sunday. In the 25 minutes that Holiday has played with Boogie this year, his usage rate has dipped by 1.7 percent, and his assist rate has dropped by 6.2 percent. Because his salary has dropped over the last couple of games, he now represents a value at $6,900 on DK, where he has 10 Pro Trends and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Another important note: The Pelicans are playing on three days rest, whereas the Pistons are on the second leg of a road back-to-back.
Shooting Guards
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a tough player to analyze of late: He’s either been really good or really bad.
He absolutely busted on Monday against the Cavs after dominating them earlier in the year, scoring only nine real points and 28.4 FD points in his most recent outing. That said, he can clearly put up huge games, and he’s back at home tonight, where he’s on the right side of his splits:
Further, he’s facing a Denver team that ranks sixth in pace, averaging 100.7 possessions/48, and dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.7 points/100.
On the other side of that game sits Gary Harris, who continues to play big minutes and has been an incredible DFS asset lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging an impressive +6.35 FD Plus/Minus over that time. Oddly, his salary has barely budged: He’s still only $5,500 on FD, where he has nine Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. The Bucks have slipped to a bottom-10 defense over the new year, now allowing 106.9 points/100, and Harris will definitely be able to find some room against Tony Snell, who owns a below-average -0.90 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM).
At a similar price point is Seth Curry, who has played huge minutes since the All-Star break, especially since the Mavericks released Deron Williams.
In 19 games this year without Deron, Seth has led the team with a usage rate increase of 2.6 percentage points and a +2.5 DK Plus/Minus differential.
In just the last three games since the All-Star break, Curry has an impressive +10.3 DK Plus/Minus sans Deron.
Curry remains a solid cash-game option on both sites, especially against a Hawks team that has struggled against guards this year, as evidenced by Curry’s +2.45 DK Opponent Plus/Minus.
Small Forwards
Kyrie has been great without Love this season, but LeBron James hasn’t been too shabby, either:
He has averaged a 51.6 DK points and a +2.5 Plus/Minus in 37.5 minutes per game without Love this year, and he gets a Celtics team tonight that has been a disappointing defensively this season, allowing a mediocre 106.1 points/100. In their first two meetings this year, the Celtics have struggled to defend LeBron:
LeBron has had to play 37-plus minutes in each of the last two games, and he’ll likely have to go the distance in this one as well: The Cavaliers opened as one-point road favorites, but they’ve since moved to one-point dogs. The Celtics sit four games back of the Cavs for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.
James: DFS Scouting Report
Terrence Ross might’ve been a throw-in in the Serge Ibaka-to-Toronto trade, but he’s now starting for Orlando . . .
. . . and already playing a ton of minutes:
His salary has not adjusted to his new starting role, which means he remains an elite value play at only $4,400 FD, where he has eight Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He gets a Knicks team tonight that ranks 25th defensively on the year, allowing 108.7 points/100, and has been the worst team in the league this season against opposing SGs, allowing an average DK Plus/Minus of +4.56.
While Gordon Hayward has nonexistent home/away splits . . .
. . . he does have noticeable favorite/underdog splits:
Oddly, he’s been excellent in both legs of back-to-backs this year.
He also posted a +5.4 Plus/Minus in 2H back-to-backs last season, so this may be a significant trend. He’s an excellent play at only $7,600 on DK, where he has 11 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating against a subpar Minnesota defense.
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis is expensive on FD at $11,600, but he’s much more reasonable on DK, where his $10,400 salary comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Over the last two games, Davis has reasserted himself as the dominant usage player in New Orleans, taking a combined 62 shots and scoring 77 real points. That’s a good sign moving forward, and it’s especially intriguing today now that he’ll have essentially no competition for shots with Boogie suspended, Jrue in a slump, and his old shooting guard in Buddy Hield on the Kings. Davis will certainly be popular tonight and could have massive Upside against Andre Drummond, who could struggle to keep up with the quicker Davis, especially if Brow stretches out the offense to the perimeter.
After lineups lock, be sure to review the ownership of Davis and other elite players in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
The Miami Heat have played excellent basketball over the last couple months, especially on the defensive end: They now rank sixth in defensive efficiency, allowing only 104.1 points/100 on the year. That’s bad. Here’s something good:
Dario Saric has absolutely crushed lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games and averaging a silly +12.08 FD Plus/Minus over that time. On Monday, he dropped 39.9 FD points on a 21-7-7 line against Draymond Green and the Warriors, who are even stingier than the Heat. Saric has been an incredible value in the last three games without Joel Embiid (injured), Nerlens Noel (traded), and Ersan Ilyasova (traded):
His salary will catch up to his production at some point, but now is not that point.
Willie Cauley-Stein is only $5,400 on FD and is actually averaging the exact same FD points per minute (0.85) as Saric this season. He played 34.2 minutes on Monday against the Timberwolves, and he’ll likely play 30-ish minutes off the bench again tonight against the Nets. As you might know, centers projected to play 30-plus minutes versus Brooklyn have crushed, averaging a +6.24 DK Plus/Minus, and WCS plays 76 percent of his minutes at center despite his DFS position:
Cauley-Stein put up an impressive line of 29-10 in the first game after the All-Star break sans Boogie, and he now gets a Brooklyn team that ranks first in pace, averaging 103.9 possessions/48, 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.4 points/100, and 27th in rebound rate, grabbing only 47.9 percent of the boards.
Centers
Kristaps Porzingis will likely return to the lineup tonight, but Guillermo Hernangomez will be out with a sprained left ankle, and of course Joakim Noah remains out following knee surgery. That means that Kyle O’Quinn will likely start at center and get a solid amount of minutes. He’s dominated this Magic team twice already this season . . .
. . . and he can certainly do so again against Nikola Vucevic, who isn’t a rim protector.
O’Quinn is one of the top FD players in the Phan Model, and his low $4,700 salary comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
It seems like Hassan Whiteside has been awful for a while now, but that actually hasn’t been the case:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games and has averaged a +2.97 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He has scored 43 FD points in back-to-back games and has actually gotten heavy minutes: 38.3 and 37.0. He has a massive +5.08 DK Opponent Plus/Minus today against a Philly team that has been awful defensively without Embiid: Per nbawowy.com, the 76ers have allowed 111.5 points/100, which would easily be the worst mark in the league. They’re one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, grabbing only 48.7 percent of the available boards. Whiteside has massive upside.
Whiteside: DFS Scouting Report
Nikola Jokic is somehow only $8,800 on DK tonight. He was $10,500 one week ago. He put 60.5 DK points with a ridiculous 19-16-10 triple-double last night in 32.7 minutes against the Bulls. It was encouraging to see him finally play over the newly-acquired Mason Plumlee, and if that continues tonight he could crush value at that low price point. Jokic is one of the most skilled offensive centers in the entire NBA . . .
. . . and he can take advantage of a Bucks team that has struggled to defend the rim this year:
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
