Wednesday brings a 12-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks host the Nuggets in what is currently the highest-total game of the slate at 220 points. Despite having only the 25th most-efficient offense in the league, Atlanta is projected for 113 points — the slate’s second-highest mark — against a Denver defense that now ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing a miserable 110.2 points per 100 possessions on the year.
These two teams have met one time this season already, and here’s how the Hawks performed (per our Trends tool):
If you’ve been reading these breakdowns regularly, you’ll know that it’s no surprise Dennis Schroder was the highest-scoring Hawk in that game. The Nuggets continue to be the worst team in the league versus opposing PGs.
That said, the Nuggets have been generous to a lot of positions over the past month and a half:
With Thabo Sefolosha questionable again with an ongoing groin injury, Tim Hardaway Jr. will be an intriguing low-owned option in guaranteed prize pools if Thabo is out, even at his now-inflated $5,600 FanDuel salary.
Paul Millsap is a concerning play given the above data, especially considering his oddly poor results of late:
That said, he’s facing the worst defense in the league: If you can’t roster Millsap in tournaments today, when can you?
Regarding Dwight Howard, everything I said about Millsap pretty much applies to Dwight. They’ve been essentially the same (bad) player lately. Dwight’s ceiling actually might be lower than the public realizes: The Nuggets rank first in the league in rebound rate, grabbing 53.8 percent of the available boards.
As usual, the Nuggets roster is littered with injury concerns: Emmanuel Mudiay is questionable with a back injury, Danilo Gallinari remains out with a strained left groin, and there’s been no word on Kenneth Faried, who missed Monday’s game for a personal reason. Looking back at their first performance against the Hawks this year, there’s little to be excited about, especially since they had yet to realize Nikola Jokic was good at basketball.
The Hawks are a tough matchup: They rank fifth in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions. However, the Nuggets offense has been incredible with Jokic in the lineup — it now ranks eighth in the league — and the Nuggets are implied for a solid 109 points. Given the Hawks’ poor play over the last month, this isn’t a terrible spot to take some Nuggets in GPPs:
Per our NBA On/Off tool, Jameer Nelson and Gary Harris have led this current group of Nuggets with 34.1 and 32.5 minutes per game in Mudiay’s absence. They’ve outpaced their salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric) by 3.6 and 6.8 points in those affairs and will likely lead the Denver backcourt in minutes again tonight.
Wilson Chandler has been volatile lately . . .
. . . but he does have a lot of upside in this matchup if Atlanta’s elite wing defender in Sefolosha is out again.
Finally, it’s hard not to have some shares of Jokic in tournaments, even though he hasn’t hit value in his last two games since returning from a hip issue. For what it’s worth, he put up 31.3 FD points in only 24.4 minutes last game against the Mavericks on 13 points, four rebounds, and nine assists. On a per-minute basis, that’s the same ‘ol Jokic we’ve come to expect.
Point Guards
Alert: John Wall, who is one of the most devastating transition point guards in the world, is facing the Brooklyn Nets tonight, who rank first in pace, averaging 104.0 possessions per 48 minutes, and 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions. He’s faced them twice already this year and put up over 50 DK points each time. The Wizards are implied for a slate-high 115.5 points. Nothing more needs to be said.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Isaiah Thomas remains pricey at $10,000 DK and $10,400 FD, but he’s averaged an impressive +6.61 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and gets his former team in Sacramento, who oddly let him go. #NarrativeStreet
He has dropped 51.0 and 47.0 DK points in his last two games versus the Kings, and he could be a fairly low-owned option given his pricing proximity to Wall.
There are limited value options currently at the PG position. The Sacramento duo of Ty Lawson (who dropped 36.3 FD points in 34.6 minutes last game) and Darren Collison would be intriguing, but they are too volatile and cannibalize each other’s minutes. Instead, perhaps look at Raymond Felton, who has been unspectacular yet very consistent, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 contests and averaging a +5.28 FD Plus/Minus over that time frame.
The Clippers are currently 1.5-point road favorites implied for 111 points against the Knicks, who rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.1 points per 100 possessions.
I’ll give one more potentially low-owned GPP option. Jrue Holiday has absolutely crushed value lately . . .
. . . but he’s facing a Jazz team that ranks third in defensive efficiency. However, Utah has sneakily been the third-worst team since January 1st against opposing PGs, allowing an average of 32.93 DK points and a +5.48 Plus/Minus.
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal exploded for 59.0 FD points on Monday against the Cavs thanks to 41 real points and eight assists on 28 field-goal attempts. And now he gets a Brooklyn team that is first in pace and bottom-five in defensive efficiency. He’s a little pricey at $7,100 DK and $7,400 FD, but he also owns the position’s third-highest projected floor despite being considerably cheaper than the two guys ahead of him. (For reference, his floor is only 0.6 points lower than that of Giannis Antetokounmpo.) Beal exceeded salary-based expectations on FD by 5.65 points in his first meeting against the Nets this season.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been volatile lately:
However, today he faces a Lakers team that ranks sixth in pace, averaging 100.4 possessions per 48 minutes, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing a miserable 110.1 points per 100 possessions. Detroit plays at a slow pace — the Pistons average only 96.8 possessions/48 — and when KCP is in a ‘pace-up’ game of at least 3.5 possessions he is quite good.
Wayne Ellington and Rodney McGruder of the Heat are unsexy plays, but they are intriguing values at a bad position, especially Ellington at $3,600 FD and McGruder at $3,400 DK. Dion Waiters has been listed as doubtful with a sprained left ankle, and that means that his 30-plus minutes per game will likely be distributed to Ellington, McGruder, and perhaps Tyler Johnson. This season Ellington has led the team in six games without Waiters and Josh Richardson with a +6.7 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 35.1 minutes per game. He likely won’t play that many minutes tonight, but McGruder certainly could: He put up 30.8 DK points in 38.6 minutes on Monday versus the Timberwolves. Ellington and McGruder are near min-price punt plays who are likely to receive solid minutes.
Small Forwards
Of the high-priced SFs today, all of whom are excellent defenders (when they want to be), four of the five face each other.
It’s hard to fade LeBron James when he’s playing this well . . .
. . . but if you want to take the SF with easiest matchup look toward Kawhi Leonard, who is on track to play after missing Monday’s game. He gets a 76ers squad that will be without Joel Embiid, who essentially is the difference between their being one of the league’s best defenses and the absolute worst one: When Embiid is off the floor, Philly allows 112.0 points per 100 possessions. Not even the Nuggets are that bad:
Kawhi has a fairly tough one-on-one matchup against great wing defender Robert Covington, who ranks first among all eligible SFs this season with a +3.54 Defensive Real Plus-Minus, but Kawhi is also cheap on DK, where his $8,300 salary comes with 13 Pro Trends (in our Player Models) and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
And the fun of NBA DFS: As I’m writing this, Jimmy Butler has been ruled out and Dwyane Wade is a game-time decision. Michael Carter-Williams has been the play sans Butler over the past two games, but if both Butler and Wade are out, this game will likely turn into a blowout quickly:
Matt Barnes jumped from $3,800 on Monday to $5,200 today, but it’s easy to see why:
He has an FD Bargain Rating of 97 percent, which suggests he’s still not appropriately priced despite the hike for this slate. At that price, he needs only 20.69 fantasy points to hit value, and he’s hit 34.3 and 33.8 points in 33 minutes per game over his last two contests. At only five to eight percent projected ownership against a Boston team that has allowed a below-average 106.1 points per 100 possessions on the year, going back to the Barnes well isn’t a terrible option.
Gordon Hayward is an intriguing pivot down from the high-priced guys, and he’s been excellent over the last three games:
He has a solid matchup tonight against an uninspiring group of Pelicans wings.
The Jazz are currently 3.5-point road favorites implied for 101.25 points against the Pels. He’s been at his absolute best this year as a road favorite:
Power Forwards
Blake Griffin sure looked like he was back and healthy on Monday, scoring 55.7 FD points thanks to an impressive triple-double of 26 real points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists versus the Raptors. The Clippers continue their Eastern Conference road trip tonight against the Knicks, who will likely be without Joakim Noah yet again. They’ll probably start a frontcourt rotation of Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle O’Quinn, which isn’t exactly a formidable defensive duo: The Knicks rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.1 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers are currently 1.5-point favorites implied for 111 points, and Blake is a big part of that expected offensive output.
Kevin Love exploded for 59.9 FD points in 41.7 minutes thanks to 39 real points and 12 rebounds against the Wizards on Monday, and he gets an even easier matchup against a Pacers team that will likely start Lavoy Allen at PF yet again with Thaddeus Young ruled out tonight.
Myles Turner has come around as a rim protector for the Pacers, but they’ll likely want to keep him in that role against LeBron and the Cavs, so he’ll matchup solely against Tristan Thompson, which means that Love will run Allen ragged around the perimeter. Further, Indiana has really struggled to rebound the ball this season: The Pacers rank 27th in rebound rate, grabbing only 47.8 percent of the available boards. Coach Ty Lue said that LeBron could be rested tomorrow if he plays high minutes today, but there’s also a chance that they let him take it easy tonight so he can play both. Either way, Love is an elite option, especially at $8,200 on FD, where he has 10 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Markieff Morris has struggled over his last two games but has still averaged an impressive +4.55 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10:
The two recent games came in tough matchups versus LeBron and Anthony Davis, and tonight he gets a dream matchup against the Nets, who (again) are the fastest team in the league and one of the three worst defensive teams as well. Kieff averaged a +4.48 FD Plus/Minus in two games against the Nets earlier this year, and this is an excellent spot for him to bounce back after this two-game mini-slump. We’re projecting him to start against Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who is a solid young defender but is better suited to play SF than defend PFs.
Morris is a fine pivot candidate down from Love at only five to eight percent projected ownership.
Centers
We’ve been fairly matchup-heavy in today’s breakdown, and let’s continue that now with Andre Drummond.
Tarik Black has been a better defender than Timofey Mozgov this year, but overall this Lakers frontcourt has been absymal on defense, as you can see above in their rim protection numbers. Drummond had 16 points and 17 rebounds on Monday versus the 76ers and has been on an impressive rebounding tear over the last couple of weeks.
The Pistons big man legitimately has 20-20 upside in this matchup, and he’s only $8,300 on FD, where he has 10 Pro Trends, a 90 percent Bargain Rating, and an absurd +6.40 Opponent Plus/Minus.
DeMarcus Cousins will serve his suspension tonight, which means that Anthony Tolliver and Kosta Koufos will get the start in the frontcourt against Boston. In 18 games without Boogie over the past two seasons, Koufos has averaged 27.4 DK points and a +10.0 Plus/Minus in 28.3 minutes per game. His usage has gone up by 2.8 percentage points and the Kings have played 2.4 possessions/48 faster.
The Kings are currently 8.5-point home dogs implied for 101.5 points without their stud big man, but Kouf is still an elite value at only $3,600 DK.
Karl-Anthony Towns is on the right side of his ridiculous home/road splits this season:
He’s been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +6.70 DK Plus/Minus over that time frame. He dropped 51.0 DK points last game against the Heat, and he has a really nice matchup against whoever tries to guard him, whether it’s the small Patrick Patterson or poor rim protector Jonas Valanciunas. KAT is much cheaper on DK at $9,800, where he has 13 Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Good luck!
News Updates
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