I toss the word “uncertainty” around a lot. I think it’s most apt when describing tonight’s seven-game main slate.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook ranks second among projected starting point guards in DraftKings Opponent Plus/Minus. With all the uncertainty swirling around the slate, Westbrook may be the most stable option on the board. The Hornets defense has tapered off in the past two weeks, and they’ve dropped to 19th in Defensive Rating over the past 10 games. After three straight games of scoring fewer than 60.0 FanDuel points, Westbrook has generously been listed at $11,800. Aside from scoring 25.0 FanDuel points and being ejected last Thursday, Westbrook has been able to consistently exceed 50 FanDuel points over the past nine games. That’s his target tonight, and if he attempts 28 shots and 11 free throws like he did on Monday, he’ll easily meet expectations.
Values
Malcolm Brogdon, Michael Carter-Williams, and Darren Collison: All three cost less than $5,000 on FanDuel. Carter-Williams and Collison each cost $4,500 on DraftKings, whereas Brogdon has been marked up to $5,300.
Matthew Dellavedova has been listed out in the Bucks’ game notes, but we’ll likely receive confirmation from coach Jason Kidd in his pregame availability. Brogdon has started the past three games and averaged 28.3 FanDuel points in 34.7 minutes per game. His average production is skewed because of the triple-double he recorded two games ago, but he’s been a steady force and even produced as a reserve. Now that he’s been afforded starter’s minutes, he’ll remain the top value play at the position.
Ty Lawson didn’t play last night because of a broken blood vessel in his right eye. I assume he’ll sit tonight, and if he does, Collison will be the lone point guard available for the Kings. He produced 38.9 FanDuel points in the easiest matchup for a point guard last night, and his 36 minutes are a viable target again if Lawson is out. That said, Lawson warmed up before the game last night with the intent to play, and he was originally probable on the injury report. Because the game doesn’t begin until 3.5 hours after the main slate locks, Collison provides slightly more risk than Brogdon does.
Rajon Rondo may not be in the rotation, Dwyane Wade is a game-time decision, and Denzel Valentine didn’t travel with the team. Carter-Williams has been promoted to the starting point guard role, but he’s not the primary playmaker. That distinction belongs to Wade and Jimmy Butler. Carter-Williams will be the safe play on DraftKings until we learn Lawson’s fate.
Leverage Plays
The Kemba Walker–Elfrid Payton parlay won’t be a popular pairing. Westbrook and Brogdon will likely claim that crown. Nonetheless, deviating from the norm is a good way to differentiate yourself in GPPs.
Walker faces a team that has allowed opposing point guards projected to play at least 18 minutes to average a +4.93 FanDuel Plus/Minus, and Payton’s opponent, the Hawks, allowed him to scored 50.6 FanDuel points last month. The blemish for Walker is his $8,400 FanDuel salary, and the problem with Payton is his inconsistency. Evan Fournier will be a game-time decision, and over the past five games without him, Payton has scored anywhere between 46.1 and 14.6 FanDuel points.
Allow me to remind you how Mike Conley fared against the Clippers in the two previous matches:
He had his two best DFS performances against them. Chandler Parsons could sit on the second night of a back-to-back set, and Marc Gasol is dealing with a sprained left ankle. The Grizzlies don’t play until 10:30pm ET, and Conley’s projected ownership on both sites is five to eight percent. If you’re going to fade Westbrook and the highly-owned cheap guys, flirting with Conley is an option in case both Parsons and Gasol don’t suit up.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Of the seven shooting guards with the highest projected ceilings on FanDuel, Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t tagged as questionable to play or stuck with a negative Opponent Plus/Minus. He does, however, lead his position in Projected Plus/Minus and projected ownership in FanDuel GPPs. He’s played at least 40 minutes in consecutive games, and he’s projected for 39 more tonight. I can confirm that players who are projected to play at least 30 minutes when facing the Knicks average a +5.47 FanDuel Plus/Minus, the fourth-highest mark allowed this season.
Values
J.J. Redick benefited greatly from the three-guard lineup coach Doc Rivers used against the Suns on Monday. In what may have been his best game without Chris Paul, Redick provided 24.8 FanDuel points in 34 minutes. Should Rivers continue to use the Felton-Redick-Rivers combination, Redick will offer reliability at a cheap price.
Victor Oladipo dropped to $5,400 on FanDuel, and he leads all shooting guards in Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings. In two games since returning from a sprained right wrist, Oladipo has exceeded 23 DraftKings points. His price is a happy medium between the higher-priced shooting guards and the cheap punt plays.
Leverage Play
In two games against the Trail Blazers this season, Ian Clark has made 17-of-19 shots and averaged 34.0 DraftKings points per game. Patrick McCaw may not be available because of an illness, and Shaun Livingston is dealing with a hip and elbow contusion. Clark costs the minimum salary on FanDuel and DraftKings, and the Warriors are currently implied to score a slate-best 119.75 points as 16-point favorites. Clark will benefit from the extra playing time in the event of a blowout, and judging on his projected ownership, he’ll be an afterthought.
Small Forward
Studs
LeBron James did not attend morning shootaround, and he may be dealing with an illness. His status for tonight’s game is up in the air, yet he leads all small forwards in Projected Plus/Minus and Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Kevin Durant is the other stud small forward option, and he’s $100 less than James on FanDuel. He previously recorded 60.75 DraftKings points against the Trail Blazers. In this instance, because Durant is close to a lock to play and James is ailing, Durant profiles as the cash play to James’ tournament profile. The Cavaliers may be without Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love, but there’s also a chance James rests.
Value
When Kristaps Porzingis isn’t on the court, Carmelo Anthony averages 42.2 FanDuel points per 36 minutes. Porzingis is hopeful to play tonight, but coach Jeff Hornacek doesn’t believe that will be the case. Anthony is in a slump, making 36.1 percent of his shots over the past five games. It may be a culmination of a sore knee and shoulder, but he’s not producing up to his career norms. Despite the downturn in overall production, Anthony is reasonably priced on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he leads all projected starting small forwards in Opponent Plus/Minus. Otto Porter, Andrew Wiggins, and Jimmy Butler all recorded at least 47 FanDuel points against the Bucks last week, and if Porzingis and LeBron are unable to go, Anthony will be the obvious value play at small forward.
Leverage Play
Wade will be a game-time decision for a game that tips 60 minutes after the main slate locks. Doug McDermott will start if Wade doesn’t play, but Jimmy Butler stands to gain the most value with Wade off the court and Rondo out of the rotation. The image below represents the Bulls’ per-36 minute production when Wade and Rondo don’t play, per the On/Off tool. Butler leads the Bulls with a 38.3 percent usage rate and a 30.6 percent assist rate. He’s implied to score 42.65 DraftKings points today, and that’s 13.05 points below his per-36 minute average sans Rondo and Wade.
Power Forward
Studs
Kevin Love and Kristaps Porzingis may not play tonight, and both veer closer to leverage plays due to their uncertainty. Love reportedly lost 10 pounds over the weekend and still managed to record a double-double on Monday. He was a partial participant in the morning shootaround, and there’s a chance he’ll play without LeBron and Kyrie. Porzingis was held out of the past two games because of a sore left Achilles, but he’s hopeful to play tonight. Coach Jeff Hornacek sounded less optimistic at Tuesday’s practice.
That leaves Draymond Green as a safe alternative at a similar salary. The Warriors have played the Blazers twice this season, and they outscored the Blazers 262-194 in those contests. In the wins, Green scored a total of nine actual points and averaged 11.0 assists and 10.0 rebounds in 29.3 minutes. He’s been consistent, which may not hold much water in GPPs, but the dire condition of the position warrants a little exposure in both formats. Green has proven he can be productive in limited minutes against the Trail Blazers this season, and if they unleash their second-ranked defense over the past four games without Damian Lillard (97.8 points allowed per 100 possessions), Green will be privy to his normal allotment of minutes.
Values
JaMychal Green suffered a facial injury in last night’s game, and his status for tonight’s game has not been updated. If he’s ruled out, Zach Randolph immediately steps into a larger role, and he’ll provide enough cap relief at power forward to utilize in cash games. He hasn’t scored less than 17.8 FanDuel points or more than 33 FanDuel points over the past 15 games. And when Parsons and Gasol are off the court, Randolph leads the Grizzlies with a 31.8 percent usage rate and 1.2 DraftKings points per minute.
If Porzingis doesn’t play, Lance Thomas may start and Carmelo could shift up to power forward as he did the previous two games. Anthony hasn’t committed to the defensive end, and he’ll likely guard Jabari Parker tonight. That’s a good thing for Parker, who is currently implied to score less than 30 points — something he’s done twice in the past 11 games. Anthony ranks 77th out of 80 small forwards with a Defensive Real Plus/Minus of -1.74. Parker leads all power forwards on the slate with 93 percent Consistency on DraftKings and FanDuel over the past month.
Leverage Play
In the last nine games against the Magic, Paul Millsap has recorded 41.35 DraftKings points and a +4.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He reminded everyone that he can dominate a game with his 56.75-point DraftKings performance on Sunday, and he’ll likely be overlooked until Love and/or Porzingis are deemed unavailable to play. Millsap costs $100 more than Draymond on DraftKings, and both offer similar ceilings and floors.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins will likely face a Heat squad missing Hassan Whiteside, and the last time he played them Cousins compiled 42.4 FanDuel points in an overtime loss. He also fouled out in the fourth quarter and Rudy Gay led the Kings in DFS scoring. Gay is dealing with a hip injury, and Cousins is the offense when Gay doesn’t play. The Heat allowed the Suns’ Tyson Chandler to grab 20 rebounds last night, and they’ll likely be as generous tonight. Cousins has plateaued around 50 FanDuel points since his explosion against the Trail Blazers two weeks ago, and if the Heat are limited to eight healthy players again, they’ll be no match for Cousins in the post.
Value
Willie Reed had a career night (22 points, 18 rebounds, two blocks) against the Suns on Tuesday, and he’ll have the chance to duplicate it as the likely starting center tonight. Whiteside, upon last check, is still in Miami after suffering a right eye contusion. The Heat had only eight available players last night, and most of them played over 30 minutes. James Johnson could throw a wrench into this plan since he’s the backup center with Whiteside unavailable. Johnson didn’t play last night because of an illness, and that allowed Reed the opportunity to play 32 minutes.
Leverage Play
Marc Gasol is the second-most expensive center-only option on both sites, and he expects to play on the second night of a back-to-back set despite dealing with a sprained left ankle. The game tips off at 10:30 pm ET, and we likely won’t know his status until after the pregame warmups. In the previous two games against the Clippers this season, he provided 41.8 and 42.4 FanDuel points.
Good luck!
News Updates
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