Wednesday brings a 10-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Timberwolves at Nuggets
In today’s NBA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, we broke down the Kings-Blazers and Raptors-Warriors games. Let’s focus on another juicy game here: The Timberwolves at the Nuggets. This game has the second-highest Vegas total of the day at 217 points, and the Nuggets are currently four-point home favorites.
The four main guys for Minnesota — Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns — are elite plays, even in cash games, because of their high minute totals: All of them are projected for at least 33 minutes, and the latter three have been playing 38-plus under new head coach Tom Thibodeau. Rubio has the best matchup of the four, as Denver has been the worst team in the league against PGs:
At just $5,800, Rubio is currently the No. 1 PG in the Phan Model for FanDuel, where he has a massive +5.58 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Wiggins is probably the second safest of the four, and he’s been incredibly consistent despite his reputation: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and averaged a +4.46 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s also cheap on FD, where his $6,300 salary comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating. LaVine is a similar play, although the value provided by guys like Jamal Crawford and C.J. McCollum make him more of a tournament play. Still, he’s the No. 3 option in the Phan Model for FD, and he owns a robust +3.10 Opponent Plus/Minus.
KAT is definitely more of a tournament play with DeMarcus Cousins facing the Blazers, but he’s an elite tournament option for that reason and is currently projected for 17-20 and nine to 12 percent ownership on DraftKings and FD. He’s especially cheap on the former site, where his $8,700 salary comes with a position-high +5.35 Projected Plus/Minus and 13 Pro Trends. He’s projected for 37.1 minutes and a 27.15 usage rate.
For the Nuggets, Will Barton and Nikola Jokic are the most intriguing tournament options. Barton is coming off of a 41.6-point FD outing against the Clippers and is projected for only five to eight percent ownership. The Nuggets are implied to score 110.5 points — the fourth-highest mark tonight — and Barton is projected for 32.8 minutes. Jokic is finally appropriately priced at $6,400 DK and $7,000 FD, which makes him less of a cash-game lock and more of a tournament consideration. He still has a high projected ceiling of 47.5 DK points and is projected for only five to eight percent ownership. The Wolves own the 25th-ranked defense, allowing a poor 108.0 points per 100 possessions. A lot of people will be on the two games we discussed on the podcast, but this is a sneaky one to target and could shoot out.
Point Guard
Stud
This is definitely a night to pay down at PG, but, if you’re paying up, perhaps Stephen Curry can break out of his slump and show his GPP-winning upside again? He’s down to $8,100 on DK and is coming off probably his worst game of the year, scoring only 28.75 DK points in 37.3 minutes against the rival Cavaliers. He’s projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership. He’s risky because of his current offensive role, but he has a nice matchup against the Raptors: Although Kyle Lowry is known by reputation as an elite PG defender, the Raps have been the third-worst team in the league defending the position this season. Per our Trends tool:
The Warriors are favored at home by 9.5 points, which seems high, but the Warriors have actually played in only six games with less than an 8.5-point spread. They’ve never been dogs in the current Steph-Kevin Durant era. This game could stay close and there’s a chance Kerr and company could finally get the two-time MVP rolling again.
Value
Whoever gets the start as the Clippers’ PG tonight — Austin Rivers or Raymond Felton — will be the chalky cash-game play. In the last two games without Chris Paul, they’ve flip-flopped value: Felton put up 35.0 FD points in 37.6 minutes in the first game, and Rivers had 27.1 FD points in 42.3 minutes on Monday. They should both play 30-plus minutes, and currently Rivers is projected for a higher 35.2 minutes and thus has a higher +6.04 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, where he comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating. The Pelicans have allowed a mediocre 104.7 points per 100 possessions, although it is noteworthy that the Clippers are currently implied for a slate-low 99.5 points. Still, both Rivers and Felton are too cheap on both sites: They need only 18.06 and 15.86 FD points to hit value.
Leverage Play
In two games without Evan Fournier, Magic PG Elfrid Payton has averaged a team-high 38.6 DK points and exceeded value by an average of 11.2 points. He’s played only 27.6 minutes per game in those contests, but there’s a chance that he could get back into the starting role over D.J. Augustin. Elf has exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 7.51 FD points in his last nine games, and he gets an elite matchup tonight versus the Hornets. PGs projected for at least 15 DK points have exceeded salary-based expectations by 3.79 points and have come with low 8.5 percent ownership. Elf is projected for even lower than that because of the multitude of PG options: Five to eight and two to four percent on DK and FD.
Shooting Guard
Stud
In seven games without Damian Lillard over the past two seasons, C.J. McCollum has averaged 43.4 DK points and a +10.5 Plus/Minus. He’s played an average of 36.4 minutes and used 31.4 percent of the Blazers’ possessions while on the floor. He could potentially be the chalkiest player in the entire slate, and it makes some sense to use him as your PG on DK, where he has PG/SG dual eligibility. These two teams played just last week, and C.J. had 36 points and four assists in 38.5 minutes of action, and that was with Lillard playing. He’s currently the No. 2 SG in the Phan Model for FD, where his $7,400 salary comes with a +7.25 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
The only reason McCollum is No. 1 in the models is because Jamal Crawford is $5,000 and playing without Chris Paul. We have a large enough sample at this point to be confident about Crawford’s role in this situation:
In 10 games without CP3 this season and last, Crawford has averaged 35.4 DK points and exceeded expectations by an average of 17.1 points. He’s averaged 33.7 minutes and a massive 31.0 percent usage rate in those contests, and he put up 41.5 DK points on Monday without CP3. He’s cash-viable on both sites at $5,400 DK and $5,000 FD, and he leads all players in the slate with a +9.89 Projected Plus/Minus on the latter site. He’s projected for high 21-25 percent ownership on FD, but it’s certainly warranted.
Leverage Play
Nicolas Batum has put up at least 40 FD points in five of his last six games, and he’s averaged a high +6.09 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine:
Batum should see a small bump with Marco Belinelli out of the rotation: He played 38.8 minutes and scored 43.0 DK points last game without Marco. Batum has been one of the most consistent DFS assets lately, and he’s especially cheap tonight on FD, where his $7,600 salary comes with a +5.87 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for 13-16 percent ownership there, which is certainly lower than Crawford’s projection, and Batum could also dip a bit more if Jeremy Lamb — who has a team-high +12.1 DK Plus/Minus in Belinelli’s absence — becomes a chalky punt play at the position.
Small Forward
Stud
The Warriors are currently 9.5-point favorites over the Raptors, but that’s been the norm for Kevin Durant and company. In 27 games this season as a favorite of at least 7.5 points, Durant has averaged 50.08 DK points and hit value 70.4 percent of the time:
Durant has been consistent this season no matter the situation, and he’s projected for 35.8 minutes and a 30.79 usage rate tonight. He has a poor -1.22 FD Opponent Plus/Minus, but negative matchups haven’t really bothered Durant:
Durant is looks like the ideal cash-game player.
Value
Elf wasn’t the only Magic player to benefit from Fournier’s absence: In those two games, Aaron Gordon averaged a team-high 28.9 minutes and posted a +8.4 average DK Plus/Minus. He scored 30.1 DK points in those contests and increased his usage rate by 2.8 percent. He’s coming off an excellent game in which he scored 30 real points and made 11-of-15 shots from the field against the league’s best defense in the Grizzlies. He’s only $4,300 tonight on FD, where he comes with a +3.96 Projected Plus/Minus and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He needs only 16.74 points to hit value.
Leverage Play
Jimmy Butler is too risky for cash games — the Bulls are nine-point favorites over the awful Brooklyn Nets — but he makes an elite pivot in tournaments down from Durant. It’s been a while since Butler has flashed elite upside — he had back-to-back games of 50-plus FD points a couple weeks ago — but he certainly has that potential in this matchup. Brooklyn plays at the league’s fastest pace, averaging 104.4 possessions per game, and the Nets also own the third-worst defense, allowing a miserable 109.0 points per 100 possessions. Butler has a position-high +3.55 Opponent Plus/Minus, and he’s projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership on both sites.
Power Forward
Stud
It’s hard to justify spending $11,100 DK or $11,300 FD on Anthony Davis with Cousins in the slate, but Davis is in a nice spot. The Pelicans are currently 5.5-point favorites over the CP3- and Blake Griffin-less Clippers, and they’re implied for 105 points. Brow has been above 50 FD points in each of his last four games, and he currently leads all FD PFs with a +6.43 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s the No. 1 PF in the FD Phan Model, and he’s projected for a massive 72.8-point ceiling. He also has a high 31-35 percent projected ownership, but that could dip if people go heavy on Boogie. Don’t be afraid of this matchup: DeAndre Jordan‘s rim protection metrics haven’t lived up to his current reputation.
Value
Serge Ibaka has been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and averaging a +6.96 Plus/Minus during that time. He’s currently the No. 4 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where his reasonable $6,300 salary comes with a +5.78 Projected Plus/Minus and 10 Pro Trends. Charlotte has been tough defensively this season, allowing a stout 103.0 points per 100 possessions, but Ibaka’s matchup isn’t dire: Marvin Williams has allowed 43.3 percent shooting in the mid-range this season. Ibaka has shot an elite 47.8 percent from there, and he’s also posted ridiculous marks of 58.7 percent in the paint and 70.0 percent in the restricted area. At only five to eight percent FD ownership, Ibaka is in play in all contest formats.
Leverage Play
Al-Farouq Aminu played 30 minutes for the first time since November 6th last game, and he turned that time into 24.1 FD points and an +8.68 Plus/Minus. He’s projected for 32.0 minutes and is only $4,100 on FD, where he comes with a high +4.14 Projected Plus/Minus and five Pro Trends. The Blazers have seen some line movement today, even with Lillard out of the lineup: They opened as three-point dogs, but the spread has moved up 1.5 points. They’re currently implied for 103.25 points, and it remains to be seen who will pick up the statistical load other than McCollum. Aminu is currently the No. 3 PF in the FD Phan Model, and he’s projected for 13-16 percent ownership. This game went for 247 points last week, and it certainly has shootout potential again.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins went for 55 real points and 82.25 DK points last week against the Trail Blazers. Portland owns the worst defense in the league this season, allowing an embarrassing 110.5 points per 100 possessions, and the Blazers also rank 25th in rebound rate, grabbing only 48.4 percent of the available boards. Boogie has a massive +4.29 on DK Opponent Plus/Minus and is projected to outperform salary-based expectations by 4.65 points. He’s an even better value on FD, and he’s currently the No. 1 center there in the Phan Model, where his $11,000 salary comes with a position-high +8.65 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He’ll be played in lots of contests.
Value
We’ll keep mentioning Cody Zeller as long as his price stays low and he keeps crushing value:
Over his last nine games, he’s hit value in every contest and averaged an FD Plus/Minus of +6.36. He has a nice +3.37 Opponent Plus/Minus against Orlando, which has been quite shaky defensively this season despite starting two above-average defenders in Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo. The Hornets are currently 3.5-point favorites implied to score 104 points over the Magic, and Zeller is currently projected for 28.3 minutes. He’s the No. 3 center in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $5,200 salary comes with a +3.91 Projected Plus/Minus and only two to four percent projected ownership. If you need to pay down for a center, Zeller is a fine option in cash games.
Leverage Play
Boogie wasn’t the only player to explode for a big DFS game in that last Blazers-Kings matchup. Mason Plumlee went for 57.75 DK points in 36.47 minutes of action. He’s had volatile minute totals, but Boogie destroys all other Blazers big men, especially Meyers Leonard, and Plumlee has some nice minutes upside tonight, even if his current 26.9 projection is on the lower end. He’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership tonight on DK, where his $5,700 salary comes with a +3.25 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. If you’re doubling down on this Kings-Blazers game, it’s not a horrible idea to go with two Cs on DK and roll with the Plumlee-Boogie game stack.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
