Wednesday brings a 10-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall is coming off back-to-back games of 50-plus DraftKings points, and he now gets a Charlotte team that has struggled against opposing PGs this year. Wall has a massive +3.05 Opponent Plus/Minus, which is a big reason why he’s currently No. 1 in the Phan Model for DK, where he’s oddly $400 cheaper than he’s been during the past three games. He’s only $8,600, and he comes with a position-high +8.95 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for a position-high 37.5 minutes, and the Wizards are implied for 106.75 points — the sixth-highest Vegas mark in the slate. There will be chalk.
Value
Garrett Temple will likely approach 30 minutes in the absence of Ben McLemore and Rudy Gay. He played 30.9 minutes on Monday after McLemore exited the game in the second half, and he finished with 21.25 DK points on 16 real points. There’s risk here — Temple doesn’t fill up the box score — but he’s only $3,200 DK and he’s facing the Rockets, who rank 19th defensively, allowing 105.1 points per 100 possessions. At that price, he needs only 13.65 points to hit value. If his 0.66 DK points per minute holds up, he’ll be a fine punt play at 29.6 projected minutes.
Leverage Play
Chris Paul is $100 more expensive than Wall on DK and $100 cheaper on FanDuel. Wall is projected for a chalky 31-35 percent ownership on both sites, which means Paul at his price will go (relatively) overlooked: He’s projected for 17-20 and 13-16 percent DK and FD ownership. CP3 has scored 54.3 and 65.3 DK points in his last two games, and he’s currently projected to outperform his salary-based expectation by 5.25 DK points. He’s a much better value on DK, where his $8,700 salary comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. After peaking with a defensive rank of third, the Magic have since dropped back to 14th on the season, allowing 104.1 points per 100 possessions. Paul is an elite tournament pivot down from Russell Westbrook and the chalky Wall.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is coming off a 36-8-11 performance (62.1 FD points) and is projected to play 37.1 minutes and use 35.85 percent of his team’s possessions while on the floor. With Gay and DeMarcus Cousins ruled out for the Kings, there is a large blowout risk: The Rockets are currently 9.5-point favorites at home, but that line will likely move to double digits soon. That said, Harden’s 62.1-point performance last game was versus the Brooklyn Nets, against whom the Rockets were even bigger favorites. Harden is easily the highest-priced SG on the slate at $12,000 DK and $11,700 FD, but he’s still the No. 2 option in the Phan Model for FD, where he comes with a huge +8.17 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for a slate-high 41-plus percent ownership, which definitely makes him a worthy fade in tournaments.
Value
With LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love ruled out for Wednesday’s game in Memphis, the Cavs will start a lineup of DeAndre Liggins, Iman Shumpert, JR Smith, James Jones, and Tristan Thompson. Of those players, Smith should likely be the offensive focal point: He’s projected for 33.9 minutes and a 25.09 usage rate. Kyrie didn’t play last night, and Smith was able to put together a 33-point FD performance on 23 real points and six 3-pointers. He’s currently the No. 1 option in both the DK and FD Phan Models, and he leads all SGs with massive Projected Plus/Minus values of +10.05 and +9.47. At just $3,500 on both sites, he should be a chalky cash-game option.
Leverage Play
There are so many starters resting today that value is perhaps too easy to find on the slate. Harden is expensive, but he’s fairly easy to roster because of guys like Smith, Shumpert, Temple, and even mid-range values like Lou Williams. Because of the value options, DeMar DeRozan will likely have minuscule ownership despite the fact that he’s facing the 6-18 Philadelphia 76ers, who have allowed 104.9 points per 100 possessions on the season. DeRozan isn’t really a value at $8,400 FD — especially considering the cheap options today — but he has the second-highest projected ceiling (53.3 FD points) and will likely have single-digit ownership in an elite matchup.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard has played very well lately, scoring at least 41 FD points in each of his last three games and exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last five. He’s only $8,300 FD, and he’s projected for a position-high 32.12 usage rate in his 33.1 projected minutes. His individual matchup versus Jae Crowder isn’t great, but Kawhi will likely have to be the offensive force for the Spurs without LaMarcus Aldridge, who has already been ruled out. Per our NBA On/Off tool, Kawhi has increased his usage rate by a ridiculous 6.9 percentage points in the two games Aldridge has missed this season. Kawhi is currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where he has 12 Pro Trends and a +3.70 Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
I’m guessing Matt Barnes will be owned more than teammate Omri Casspi on DK, mostly because he’s $700 cheaper at $3,700. And Barnes is a fine play: He’s currently the No. 1 option in the DK Phan Model, and he’s second among SFs with a +4.15 Projected Plus/Minus. That said, Barnes is an incredibly volatile player:
He’s an excellent tournament option at his salary, but Casspi likely provides a safer floor for cash games. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last six games, scoring over 25 DK points in his two most recent outings. He’s projected for 30.4 minutes and a 20.77 usage rate, and he currently leads the position with a +4.15 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
Gordon Hayward is only $200 cheaper than Kawhi, and he has a much worse matchup against the Thunder, who currently rank eighth in defensive efficiency and have allowed 102.1 points per 100 possessions on the season. Further, Rodney Hood will return to the lineup, which should lower Hayward’s ownership. Hayward has been excellent lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 7.71 FD points in each of his last eight games. It’s been 10 games since he’s been below 35 FD points, and he needs to hit only 33.42 to reach his salary-implied total. He’s the No. 3 option right now in the Phan Model for FD, where his $8,100 salary comes with a +4.08 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin is the PF stud in the slate merely because of the pricing dynamics at the position: He’s $9,100, which is a whopping $2,600 more than the next guy in Derrick Favors. Griffin is in a tough matchup against Serge Ibaka, who has held opposing PFs to 0.10 DK points below salary-based expectations over the past year. Blake is coming off a nice game, scoring 51.5 DK points in 40 minutes, but that was against the awful Portland defense. This Magic frontcourt is a different animal, and Blake has a poor -0.09 DK Opponent Plus/Minus. That said, he’s still worth rostering in tournaments, as his 55.0-point projected ceiling on FD is nearly 12 points higher than that of any other PF.
Value
It is only December 14th, and David Lee is currently the No. 1 PF option in both the DK and FD Phan Models. He leads all PFs with Projected Plus/Minus values of +7.65 on DK and +8.13 on FD, and he’s projected to start for the Spurs with Aldridge out. According to the On/Off tool, in the two games without Aldridge this season Lee has averaged 25.3 DK points with a Plus/Minus differential of +10.5. Even at only 24.3 projected minutes, he should use enough possessions (18.37 usage rate projection) and grab enough boards to pay off his $3,600 FD price tag. Boston is awful rebounding the ball, ranking 26th in the league with a 47.8 percent rebound rate.
Leverage Play
The worst team against PFs this season has been the Brooklyn Nets, which means that Julius Randle has a large +2.92 Opponent Plus/Minus. Brooklyn is always a team to target in DFS, as the Nets play at the league’s fastest pace — they average 104.1 possessions per game — yet they have the second-worst defense, allowing an embarrassing 109.7 points per 100 possessions. These two teams (the Lakers and Nets) are actually the league’s fastest in pace and worst in defensive efficiency. That’s why this game easily has the slate’s highest Vegas total at 228.5 points. The Lakers are implied to score 113.5 points and Randle will look to bounce back from an awful game, scoring only 13 DK points against the Kings. He’s currently the No. 2 PF option in the Phan Model for DK, where his $5,900 salary comes with a +2.55 Projected Plus/Minus and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has finally made it to the $7,000 range on FD. Despite the salary bump, he’s still an excellent play: He’s currently the No. 1 center in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a +6.81 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He has a nice matchup against a Raptors defense that has allowed a mediocre 104.5 points per 100 possessions on the year and has struggled against opposing centers: Embiid has a high +2.71 Opponent Plus/Minus. He hasn’t double-doubled in two straight games, but he’s a solid bet to hit that mark tonight against a Raps team that ranks 26th in defensive rebound rate, grabbing only 74.3 percent of the available boards.
Value
Kosta Koufos scored 26.4 FD points in 31.8 minutes last game, and he projects to be the chalky cash-game option tonight without DeMarcus Cousins. Boogie hasn’t missed a game yet this year, but we do have a sizable sample from last season: In 17 games with Boogie, Koufos led all Kings with a +10.1 DK Plus/Minus differential. There were only two games last season without both Boogie and Gay, and Kouf exceeded salary-based expectations by 11.2 DK points in those instances. It’s safe to say that at $3,100 DK and $3,700 FD, he’s the easy cash-game lock. He’s currently the No. 1 center in the DK Phan Model, and he leads all players across all positions with a massive +10.55 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
Most centers will go under-owned tonight because of Kouf, which makes a guy like Brook Lopez incredibly intriguing in guaranteed prize pools. He’s only $6,800 DK, and he has an elite matchup against the Lakers, who currently own the league’s worst defense, allowing 109.8 points per 100 possessions. The Nets are currently implied to score a slate-high 115 points, and Lopez is projected for 29.2 minutes and a 28.79 usage rate. In his first game against the Lakers this season — and this was before they fell off a cliff defensively — Brook dropped 55.5 DK points in 31.1 minutes of action. He’s currently the No. 2 C in the Phan Model for DK, where he has a +3.95 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, a 93 percent Bargain Rating, and a high +6.91 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s projected for only 13-16 percent DK ownership. Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
