Wednesday brings a nine-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: New York Knicks at Boston Celtics
The Knicks’ shortened rotation certainly creates a lot of value plays in the slate. Looking at the projected lineup on our NBA Matchups tool, there are two starters in Ron Baker and Mindaugas Kuzminskas who are $3,400 and $4,300 DK. Further, Joakim Noah didn’t participate in shootaround because of a sore left ankle, and if he’s unable to go more center minutes would be available for likely starter Kyle O’Quinn ($4,100 DK) and even Guillermo Hernangomez ($3,000 DK). Neither of those two centers are playable if Noah suits up, but with Kristaps Porzingis and Lance Thomas already ruled out this rotation could be incredibly thin. Given their price points, just about all the starters are intriguing in cash games, although Baker is the one guy who likely doesn’t have 30-minute upside or the efficiency to put up a huge game in only 20 minutes.
On the other side of the ball, Kelly Olynyk remains the cash-game option on this squad: He’s put up back-to-back 32.8- and 42.1-point FD outings against the Hornets and the Hawks, and the Knicks have no player — regardless of whether it’s Noah or O’Quinn — who can stretch out and defend him on the perimeter. He’s hit six of his seven 3-point attempts over the past two games and is likely to have many opportunities tonight. He’s only $4,300 on FD and a solid option in all formats if you don’t want to pay all the way up for DeMarcus Cousins.
The PG position is loaded today at the top with Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, and Kyle Lowry, and Isaiah Thomas actually has the slate’s second-highest salary at $9,700 FD. That’s a high price, especially in a game that could get out of hand: The Celtics are currently eight-point Vegas favorites at home, but the line could move to double digit once all of the Knicks injuries are confirmed. That said, Thomas will likely carry low ownership compared to the other studs, and he has upside against a Knicks team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing a poor 108.0 points per 100 possessions.
There are a few intriguing value SFs in the slate, and Jae Crowder is right up there with them. He’s posted FD Plus/Minus values of +9.89, +7.11, and +11.69 over his last three games and has benefited from a safe minutes floor. He is projected for 32.5 minutes against the Knicks and is only $5,600 on FD, where he has a 75 percent Bargain Rating and a low five to eight percent projected ownership.
Al Horford is the last guy I’ll mention from this game. He’s also projected for low five to eight percent ownership (on DK) despite having an elite +3.81 Opponent Plus/Minus. If Carmelo has to play at lot of PF opposite Horford because of the Knicks’ lack of depth, Horford could certainly take advantage, as Melo rarely guards big men in pick and rolls.
Point Guard
Studs
Stephen Curry has been on a roll lately, posting at least 43 DK points in each of his last six games and averaging a +4.94 Plus/Minus over his last nine. Klay Thompson is currently questionable to play. In his first game out this year, Steph led the Warriors with 49.8 DK points, a +8.7 Plus/Minus, and a high 32.3 percent usage rate.
The Warriors are currently 13-point favorites implied for a slate-high 121.5 points against the Thunder, who will be without their best defender in Steven Adams. Steph is currently the No. 3 overall player in the Phan Model for DK, where his reasonable $9,000 salary comes with a +4.85 Plus/Minus and 13 Pro Trends.
Value
Mike Conley stands out as a great value against a below-average Washington defense, but we’ll dip below his $7,500 price tag and talk about Patrick Beverley, who will likely be low-owned because of the studs and a value guy like Baker but is still worthy of rostering in cash games. Ryan Anderson is questionable with an illness and Eric Gordon has been dealing with a toe injury. Both Bev and James Harden could see extended run with a shorter Houston rotation. The Rockets are currently seven-point favorites implied for 116.75 points — the second-highest total on the slate — against a Milwaukee team that has been very poor defensively lately. Beverley is projected for 32-plus minutes and is only $5,300 on FD, where he owns an 81 percent Bargain Rating and is projected for low five to eight percent ownership.
Leverage Play
Kyle Lowry is only $400 cheaper than Steph on FD and has a tougher matchup if T.J. McConnell and Joel Embiid play for the 76ers (both are questionable). The 76ers have been a top-10 defense with those two players on the floor, and their overall team defense has moved up to 12th in the NBA. They’ve allowed 104.9 points per 100 possessions on the season. That said, if they’re out, Lowry can certainly dominate this matchup: He’ll face Sergio Rodriguez, who ranks 66th out of 86 eligible PGs with a -1.61 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM). Lowry has underwhelmed lately after dropping 60.8 and 51.7 FD points in back-to-back games against the Bulls and Jazz, but his salary has also dropped. He’s now only $8,500 DK and $8,800 FD and makes for an excellent play in all formats.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden are the two highest-priced SG options on FD at $10,600 and $11,800. They face each other today, and they will probably draw different matchups. It’s likely that Giannis will guard Harden, while Trevor Ariza — who has struggled with guys who can get to the rim — should take Giannis on the defensive end.
Both Giannis and Harden come with sky-high Projected Plus/Minus values of +7.60 and +8.34, and Giannis is projected for slightly lower 21-25 percent ownership, compared to 31-35 percent for Harden. Giannis has the higher Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.77, compared to Harden’s mark of -2.68, and his $1,200 savings is likely the optimal route in cash games if you’re paying up for a SG.
Values
There aren’t many value plays at SG, but Kent Bazemore has scored 33 DK points in back-to-back games and is only $4,400 DK. He has a brutal -4.14 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Pistons, but that is a bit misleading considering Detroit’s best defender in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been ruled out for this game. Bazemore will instead start opposite Reggie Bullock, who is just two games back from a torn meniscus that held him out for the previous 25 games. Bazemore is projected for only five to eight percent ownership on DK, where he has a +2.95 Projected Plus/Minus. This game has easily the lowest Vegas total on the slate at 201.5 points, and the Hawks are implied for only 101.75 points. That should further reduce Baze’s ownership, which is intriguing given the lack of value at the position.
Leverage Play
C.J. McCollum and the Trail Blazers had a brutal game last outing against the Wizards, although it was an early East Coast game. He played only 22.5 minutes in that game, which means he’s essentially had five days of rest since their last real game against the Magic last week. He’s projected for 33.0 minutes and a 29.31 usage rate against the Hornets, who have allowed a +1.92 DK Plus/Minus to SGs over the past year. McCollum is an elite pivot down from the chalky top studs in Giannis and Harden at only five to eight percent projected ownership. He’s especially intriguing at $7,300 on DK, where he has 10 Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant missed value in Klay’s first game out this season, but he still put up 44.5 DK points and increased his usage rate by 3.9 percent. If he plays 36.6 minutes and posts a 31.0 percent usage rate again tonight, he should be a solid bet to hit value. He’s playing against his former team in the Thunder, who struggle defensively without Adams in the lineup but have an elite defender on the wing in Andre Roberson. He’ll certainly guard Durant in this tilt, but these two players know each other so well that it’s hard to analyze this matchup. There’s certainly a lot to like about this game: Even though the over has received only 31 percent of the bets, the total has shot up by three points.
Durant is currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for DK, where his $9,900 salary comes with a position-high +6.15 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
DeMarre Carroll has averaged a robust +6.08 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine games . . .
. . . and yet remains only $4,200, which contributes to his nice +5.60 Projected Plus/Minus and huge 99 percent Bargain Rating. With Patrick Patterson likely out again with a sore left knee and the fact that Lucas Nogueira left last night’s game with an eye injury, Carroll could see extended minutes at the SF and PF spots. The Raptors are currently five-point favorites implied for 109.75 points against the 76ers, who could take a massive hit defensively if Embiid is ruled out. Carroll is currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD and is projected for 32.6 minutes.
Leverage Play
If Jon Leuer is ruled out for Detroit, Marcus Morris remains a solid play at only $4,900 on FD, where he comes with a +3.03 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He put up a nice game last outing, scoring 36.3 FD points in a massive 42.6 minutes against the Lakers, and he’s averaged a +5.75 Plus/Minus over his last nine games. He’s currently projected for 34.1 minutes and a 19.75 usage rate against the Hawks, who struggled against a depleted Knicks team in their last outing. At only five to eight percent projected ownership, Morris is a nice GPP contrarian option away from the chalky cash-game options of Carroll, Crowder, Kuz, and even Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis burned everyone again last game, leaving early with multiple injuries and scoring only 24.1 FD points in 23.4 minutes against the Pacers. He’s playing tonight, but combining the recency bias and the presence of elite studs in the slate means that Brow will likely be underowned in tournaments. He has an elite +3.77 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Magic, who have solid defenders down low but still have been surprisingly bad defensively: They rank 21st in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.2 points per 100 possessions on the year. Brow’s 69.6-point FD projected ceiling is the third-highest mark of the slate, but his projected ownership is very low.
Value
Enes Kanter disappointed last game without Adams, scoring only 20.5 FD points in 22.6 minutes against the Clippers. That said, he’s posted an excellent +6.84 Plus/Minus over his last nine games and is projected for 27.2 minutes and a 25.87 percent usage rate against the Warriors, who are absolutely rolling right now. Kanter could see some garbage time, which perhaps lowers his floor but raises his ceiling: His 47.2-point projected ceiling is the highest among all PFs priced under $7,500. He’s averaging a robust 1.15 fantasy points per minute over the last year and can certainly be efficient against Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGee, or whichever other big man he’s up against in the second unit.
Leverage Play
Zach Randolph is in the same salary range as Kanter and Tobias Harris, who could be a chalky play if Leuer plays and he gets his reserve role back. For that reason, he’s projected for low nine to 12 percent ownership despite averaging an impressive +6.54 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine games. He’s scored at least 35 FD points in four of his last five outings and got 32.6 minutes last game against the Bulls. He’ll remain in his bench role, but he’s projected for a massive 29.16 percent usage rate against a Wizards team that has struggled defensively lately and has allowed a +2.51 Plus/Minus to PFs over the past year. Z-Bo is currently the No. 2 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $6,100 salary comes with a +5.06 Projected Plus/Minus and 10 Pro Trends.
Center
Stud
If you can pay up for DeMarcus Cousins, you probably should. He’s easily the No. 1 center in the Phan Model for both sites, where he comes with elite Projected Plus/Minus values of +4.35 and +5.96 on DK and FD. He faces an Indiana team that has been average defensively, allowing 105.6 points per 100 possessions on the season, but that undersells the matchup. They rank 26th in rebound rate, grabbing only 48.0 percent of the available boards, and they’ve been particularly poor against big men: Boogie has an elite +3.20 FD Opponent Plus/Minus in this matchup. He’s pricey at $10,700 FD, but he’s also projected for only five to eight percent ownership with a massive 65.7-point projected ceiling.
Value
Cody Zeller is $800 more than Olynyk on FD, but he’s also projected to play about six more minutes. There’s a lot of safety with Zeller today. He faces a Portland team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions, and has really struggled to rebound the basketball, grabbing only 48.7 percent of the available boards on the season. He’ll match up versus Mason Plumlee, who ranks 51st out of 69 eligible centers with a +0.61 DRPM. Zeller is certainly a fine option in cash games if you want a safer minute projection than Olynyk’s. He’s currently the No. 4 center in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a +4.35 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a huge +4.29 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
If Bebe is out for the Raptors, Jonas Valanciunas is a great pivot up from the values of Olynyk and Zeller. Val disappointed last game, scoring only 19 FD points in 29.3 minutes against the terrible Brooklyn Nets, but that should further reduce his ownership. He’s averaging 0.96 FD points per minute over the last year and has a nice ceiling for his price. At only two to four percent projected ownership, he has huge upside in this matchup, especially if Embiid is ruled out and bad defender Jahlil Okafor gets the start. The Raptors are currently implied for 109.75 points — the fifth-highest total in the slate — and the total has already increased 4.5 points since this morning.
Good luck!
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