Wednesday brings a 13-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
The Sacramento Kings own the league’s worst defense, giving up a miserable 108.4 points per 100 possessions. Tonight, they welcome Russell Westbrook. Russ has been his usual ridiculous self, hitting salary-based expectations on FanDuel in each of his eight games despite being priced between $11,400 and $11,800 in all of them. He’s scored at least 49.9 FD points in each of his last eight games, which is right around where he needs to finish to hit value (48.79 points, to be exact). He’s priced at $11,600 on FD, where he owns 12 Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He’s in play in all contest formats yet again if you can afford him.
Value
Isaiah Thomas is currently the highest-rated PG in the Phan Model, likely because of his high Projected Plus/Minus values of +4.65 on DraftKings and +5.64 on FD. He gets the Brooklyn Nets, who have been the third-worst team in the league versus PGs this year, allowing a nice +2.6 Plus/Minus on DK. Thomas has been great lately, hitting value in seven of his last nine games and averaging +3.93 FD points. He’s still managed to score at a high rate — he’s dropped 29 and 24 points in his last two games — even with Al Horford and Jae Crowder returning to the lineup. Thomas is projected for 33.1 minutes and a hefty 33.62 usage rate tonight. He’s recorded at least 20 field goal attempts and nine free throws in his last two games.
Leverage Play
Save for a few minor blips, Kemba Walker has crushed value lately:
In his last nine games, he’s hit value in six of them, averaging +7.14 FD points. He has a tough matchup today against the Spurs, who currently rank eighth defensively this year, but perhaps the matchup isn’t really that bad. Per our free Trends tool, the Spurs have allowed opposing DK PGs to score 0.1 points above salary-based expectations this season, which is right around average. Guards against Tony Parker have done even better, outperforming their DK expectations by 1.1 points over the past year. Parker has a poor -0.9 Defensive Real Plus/Minus and is definitely the weak link of that defense. Kemba’s salary has dipped quite a bit over the last two games: He’s now only $7,800 FD, down from $8,200 last game and $8,500 the game before. He’s $400 less than Thomas and could be a contrarian pivot down from that value play.
Shooting Guard
Stud
In James Harden‘s 11 games in November, he has scored 70-plus FD points once, 60-plus twice, 50-plus seven times, and below that (40.9 points against the Thunder) just once. As shown by his ridiculous 37.6-point projected floor, there aren’t many safer plays in DFS than Harden. Tonight he will face the Raptors, who have really taken a step back defensively, ranking 22nd overall and allowing 106.1 points per 100 possessions. They have held opposing SGs to a poor -3.0 DK Plus/Minus, but we have a better Opponent Plus/Minus metric in our Player Models. It is adjusted for positional splits, and Harden therefore has a positive mark of +2.55. He’s a matchup problem for anyone, and he’ll likely not have to defend DeMar DeRozan (with Trevor Ariza likely taking that role), which means that, unlike SGs who go against DeRozan two ways, Harden should be fresher on offense. This game has the second-highest Vegas total at 216.5 points, and the Rockets are implied to score a hefty 110.25 points.
Value
Victor Oladipo seems like he’s finally getting settled in with his new team: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games and has played huge minutes in those contests. He’s played 39.2, 37.8, 36.1, and 40.2 minutes in his last four games, and he’s projected for 36.4 tonight against the worst defense in the league in the Kings. Despite the increased play, his salary ($5,900) hasn’t moved up very much on FD, where he owns 10 Pro Trends, a position-high +5.64 Projected Plus/Minus, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. The Thunder are actually 2.5-point road dogs in this game, but this total has moved up three points since opening and now sits at a nice 211.5 mark. Dipo is a really nice bet to hit value given his low price tag and minutes load.
Leverage Play
Tony Allen is probably the least sexy DFS play possible, but he’s incredibly cheap if you want to be a bit contrarian and fade Harden or Dipo. He’s especially cheap at $3,300 on DK, where he owns six Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s listed as questionable to play tonight, but he played a season-high 31.5 minutes last game against the Hornets and we’re projected him for 30.3 tonight. The Grizzlies have been amazing defensively with him on the court, allowing a ridiculous 98 points per 100 possessions during that time. With Chandler Parsons and James Ennis out again tonight, there’s a good chance that the Grizz sell out to that defensive identity again and give Allen a lot of minutes on the wing. He gets the 76ers tonight and needs only 14.15 DK points to hit value.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard has a projected FD ceiling of 57.0 points that sits right between Kevin Durant‘s mark of 54.5 and LeBron James‘ position-high mark of 60.8. They’re close in that regard. What makes Kawhi stand out so much is that he is so much cheaper: At $8,200 DK and $8,500 FD, he’s least $1,300 cheaper than either player on both sites. As such, he has superior Projected Plus/Minus values of +4.75 and +6.02. Kawhi has been Kawhi-etly excellent lately [Editor’s Note: #NailedIt], hitting salary-based expectations in each of his last four games and scoring at least 20 real points in that span. Tonight he will get a Hornets defense that is very tough overall, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency on the season, but the Hornets have been less stellar specifically against opposing SFs: They’ve allowed a +0.5 DK Plus/Minus on a minuscule average ownership of 3.6 percent this season. Kawhi is an elite tournament play, especially with Durant playing against the Lakers in a game that currently boasts a juicy 231 Vegas total.
Value
Matt Barnes is another unsexy play but, like Allen, he’s a guy who is going to give you 30-plus minutes at a very cheap price tag. Barnes has played 36.3 and 30.0 minutes in his last two games and taken at least 10 shots and six 3-pointers in those. That’s a really solid minute load and usage for a guy who is only $4,000 on both sites. He’s projected for 30.9 minutes tonight, and he leads the position with Projected Plus/Minus values of +6.05 and +6.18 on DK and FD. The Kings are implied to score 107 points against the Thunder, who have lost their last two games against average Lakers and Pacers teams. The Thunder allowed 111 and 115 points in those two affairs. Again, Barnes isn’t an exciting guy to roster in DFS, but sometimes you have to take the unsexy values to get the high-ceiling studs.
Leverage Play
Andrew Wiggins is the definition of a GPP play.
Here are his last five games in terms of DK points: 19.5, 13.0, 57.0, 39.5, and 58.5. He had a 52.0-point outing three games before that, too. The young wing is almost entirely reliant on scoring the basketball, which is why his fantasy production is so volatile. He’s shot 5-of-18 and 2-of-11 in the last two games, but also dropped 47 real points five games ago. Given his volatility, Wiggins is a GPP-only play, but he’s a really nice one at $6,800 DK and $6,700 FD: What other guy below $8,000 has that high of a ceiling in any game? Wiggins should play heavy minutes with a high usage rate: He’s projected for 38.7 and 28.32, and he gets a Pelicans squad that has allowed 1.1 DK points above salary-based expectations this year. He’s projected to be owned in 13-16 percent of FD lineups tonight.
Power Forward
Stud
It’s not truly NBA season until Anthony Davis exits a game in the first half and tilts all of NBA DFS Twitter. He’s probable to play tonight and is projected to be owned in a position-high 17-20 percent of lineups. However, I’m curious where that number will actually end up: Our ownership projections are based off an algorithm developed by much smarter people than me, but that algorithm currently doesn’t include the very real ‘Brow Tilt Factor.’ Perhaps he’ll be underowned because of last game. And that would definitely be intriguing in tournaments, as Brow’s 73.5-point projected FD ceiling is a whopping 16.9 points higher than the that of the next PF in Blake Griffin. The Pelicans are currently one-point favorites against the visiting Timberwolves, and Brow is projected for 36.9 minutes and a high 32.41 usage rate.
Value
Kevin Love missed value for the first time in November last game, scoring only 25.1 FD points against the Pistons. However, that wasn’t due to poor play. In fact, it was the opposite: The Cavs blew out the Pistons 104-81, and Love had to play only 27.0 minutes. Even factoring that in, he’s still exceeded salary-based expectations in his last 10 games by an average of +5.78 points on FD. Tonight he gets a brilliant matchup against a Portland team that has been awful defensively this year: They currently rank 29th, allowing 108.3 points per 100 possessions. There is a blowout risk again, as the Cavs are 11-point favorites at home. That could make Love a GPP-only option, but if this game stays close then Love has a really nice shot at hitting value. He’s only $7,800 on FD, where he comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 68 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
The Pacers have been the seventh-worst team against PFs this year, allowing 1.0 DK points above salary-based expectations. Interestingly, because of how poor the PF position has been in DFS this year, only 11 of the 30 teams have allowed positive Plus/Minus values to PFs. Millsap missed value last game, scoring only 25.6 FD points in 22.9 minutes against the Pelicans. That was a very odd game: As mentioned above, Davis missed most of the game but came back during the 4th quarter, when the Pelicans were somehow blowing out the Hawks 95-71. Millsap has a nice bounce-back opportunity and is projected for 34.7 minutes and a 22.48 usage rate. He’s projected to be owned in only nine to 12 percent of FD lineups and could be a contrarian GPP play after posting a dud last night.
Center
Stud
I don’t want to be dramatic here, but Hassan Whiteside GOATside might be the best basketball player ever to play the game. He’s absolutely crushed value lately despite consistently being one of the most expensive center options:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations on FD in eight of his last nine games, averaging 8.39 points. On Monday night, he dropped 32 points, 13 rebounds, and two blocks in 32.8 minutes of action. He’s had double-digit rebounds in every game this year and has missed a double-double in only one game. Just for fun, I looked up the most points/rebounds double-doubles in a single season since 1983 (as far as we have stats on Basketball Reference): Kevin Garnett had 71 in the 2003-2004 season. The fact that I’m even typing this blurb is ridiculous considering that Whiteside was a D-League call-up just two years ago. Anyway: Whiteside is the highest-rated center in the Phan Model for both sites and leads the position with +6.25 and +7.05 Projected Plus/Minus values on DK and FD.
Value
Clint Capela has been getting more and more minutes lately and has responded with excellent DFS outings:
He’s hit salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games by an average of +9.76 FD points. He has scored at least 13 real points in each of his last four games and has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last two. Tonight he gets a really nice matchup against a Raptors squad that has really struggled to defend centers this year: Capela has a juicy +5.20 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD tonight. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus value (+5.81) on FD, where he comes with a low $5,700 price tag, eight Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. If you don’t roster Whiteside, Capela is a nice punt play.
Leverage Play
Al Horford has hit the ground running since returning to the Celtics lineup two games ago, scoring 42.7 and 47.7 FD points in those outings. Tonight he gets the Brooklyn Nets, who have allowed opposing centers to score 1.1 points over salary-based expectations in the past year. And, again, because our Opponent Plus/Minus value is positionally-adjusted in our Models, that actually undersells Horford, who has played nearly 15 percent of his minutes at PF and can definitely switch between positions on the fly. Horford is very cheap at $7,100 DK and $7,200 FD, and he’s currently the second-highest rated C in the FD Phan Model. He’s projected for 33.5 minutes tonight and only five to eight percent ownership on FD. He’s a nice pivot down from Whiteside in tournaments.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
