Wednesday brings an 11-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
The Toronto Raptors seemingly have an enemy in the NBA scheduling office, as they’ll face the Warriors tonight on a back-to-back after getting the defending champion Cavaliers last night. The Raptors hung tough against the Cavs but ultimately fell 117-121. More important for tonight, though, is the fact that Kyle Lowry played nearly 40 minutes and used a high number of possessions. And now he has to deal with Stephen Curry, who has now hit salary-based expectations in five of his last six games. Steph has found his shot again and now has 29 3-pointers in his last four games, which is ridiculous. He’s only $9,000 on FD, where he owns 11 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. The Raptors have allowed a high +1.8 Plus/Minus to opposing PGs this year, which seems odd, given what we know about Lowry as a defender, but that trend could continue today if the Raptors are winded.
Russell Westbrook is expensive as usual ($11,900 DK, $11,500 FD), but tonight he gets a Houston team that currently ranks 22nd on defense this year, allowing a poor 105.7 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets have been a little above average against PGs this season — they’ve allowed a +0.2 Plus/Minus on FD — but they’ve faced only one PG above $8,000 in John Wall. Westbrook is a problem they’ve yet to see. He’s been on a ridiculous tear as of late, scoring at least 50 FD points in each of his last four games. Interestingly, he’s put up really high rebound totals recently: He’s grabbed 15, 12, and 14 boards in his last three games. The Rockets are fourth in rebound rate (52.6 percent) but only 16th in defensive rebound rate (76.7 percent). Westbrook has 13 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating on FD, where he’s projected for high 26-30 percent ownership.
Value
Emmanuel Mudiay really struggled last game, putting up only 8.4 FD points in 29.5 minutes on 3-of-16 shooting from the field. The 20-year-old is still learning and developing his jump shot; those games will happen. Tonight is a really nice bounceback spot, however: He’s facing the Suns, who play at the fastest pace in the league (105.1) and have a bottom-10 defense. This game has the highest Vegas total of the night at 221, and the Nuggets are currently implied for a high 112.5 points. Gary Harris has been ruled out for a month and Will Barton is still questionable with an ankle injury; Mudiay, along with Jameer Nelson and rookie Jamal Murray, could see big minutes if Barton can’t go and the guard depth is thin. Mudiay might be a little too volatile to use in cash games, but the Suns have allowed 1.1 FD points above salary-based expectations to PGs this year, and Mudiay is only $5,700 DK and $5,600 FD.
Leverage Play
On the other side of this game, Eric Bledsoe has struggled the last two games, scoring ‘only’ 31.8 and 35.0 FD points in games in which he played a tick under 30 minutes. Tonight, he should play 30-plus minutes again and face what has been the best matchup for PGs this year. Per our Trends tool, the Nuggets haven’t just been generous to PGs on FD; they’ve essentially doubled up every other team:
Bledsoe has to split usage and time with fellow ball-dominant guards Brandon Knight and Devin Booker, but all of these guys could hit value tonight in this high-total game versus a poor Nuggets defense. There’s some risk here, but Bledsoe is projected for only five to eight percent ownership on FD, which makes him a prime GPP candidate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden continues to hit value despite having high price tags: He’s put up at least 50 FD points in each of his last seven games. Saying that Harden has a 40-point floor seems a little ridiculous, but he currently is the only player in the league to average double-digit assists (12.6), and he’s fourth in the league in scoring (30.3). Tonight’s matchup is tough against an Oklahoma City defense that currently ranks seventh in the league, but Harden just posted back-to-back 50-point games against Kawhi Leonard and a superior San Antonio defense. Not many matchups bother him, given his 35.6 percent usage rate and stellar play. He’s the highest-priced player in tonight’s slate at $12,200 DK and $11,500 FD, but he still is projected to be owned in 41-plus percent of FD contests — the highest mark in the slate among all players. He’s a very scary fade right now.
Value
Devin Booker has not been very good this year after posting an excellent rookie season. This is interesting:
It feels weird that Devin Booker is shooting 27.5% from 3-point range.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) November 14, 2016
He did shoot 28.7 percent after the All-Star break last year (per ESPN’s Kevin Pelton), which is a little surprising and suggests that he’s having a little trouble adjusting to a new lead role in the offense. That said, he projects as a great shooter and will likely see some 3-point regression at some point. Perhaps tonight is the spot to target him: He’s $6,500 FD and is facing a Nuggets team that ranks as a bottom-10 defense this season. The Suns are currently implied for 108.5 points, which is the fourth-highest mark in the slate. He’s getting 30-plus minutes and is projected for a high 28.7 usage rate. If Barton is ruled out, he could see quite a bit of 34-year-old Jameer Nelson, who is only 6’0″ and not known as a defender. As is the case with Bledsoe, there’s risk here, but this is as prime of a spot as any for Booker to get it going.
Leverage Play
Klay Thompson is projected to be owned in 26-30 percent of FD lineups tonight, but that could be reduced a bit if people go heavy on Steph instead, given his low $9,000 price tag against a Raps team on the second leg of a brutal back-to-back. Klay’s shooting has come back around recently: He’s shot 12-of-19 in the last three games from the 3-point line after putting up miserable numbers over the first couple of weeks. He’s very cheap tonight on FD ($5,800), where he comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. The Raptors have been solid against SGs this season, but the most expensive one they’ve faced has been Nicolas Batum (who hit value, by the way). Klay should match up against DeMar DeRozan, who is using a ton of energy on the offensive end and isn’t a great defender anyway, as shown by his poor -2.5 Defensive Real Plus/Minus over the past year.
Small Forward
Stud
After scoring fewer than 30 FD points in back-to-back games, Kawhi Leonard bounced back nicely against the Heat last game, putting up 40.4 points in 34.6 minutes. His price has dropped after the mini-slump and he’s now only $8,500 on FD, where he owns a slate-high 13 Pro Trends and 86 percent Bargain Rating. Of SFs above $6,300, he’s the only player with a Bargain Rating 70 percent or higher, which makes him definitely viable in cash games. He has a really nice matchup tonight facing a Sacramento team that currently ranks 26th defensively and allows a poor 107.1 points per 100 possessions on the year. Kawhi is projected to be owned in 21-25 percent of FD contests, which is lower our projections for other high-priced SFs such as LeBron James — on a second leg of a back-to-back — and Kevin Durant. He currently has a position-high +8.02 FD Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Carmelo Anthony has a tough matchup tonight against a Detroit team that currently ranks third defensively and has held opposing SFs to 0.9 points below salary-based expectations this year. That said, he’s still only $7,900 on FD, which gives him an implied point total of 32.54 points — a number he’s hit in five of his last six games (the one he missed was the ejection game). He’s cheaper on DK at $7,500 and holds 12 Pro Trends and a 66 percent Bargain Rating there. This matchup is really interesting: Andre Drummond is questionable tonight, which will put backup center Aron Baynes back in the starting role if he’s out. That should hurt the Pistons’ defense, although they surprisingly held the Thunder to just 88 points in Drummond’s first game out. It seems that Vegas thinks that the Knicks can do better, as they’re currently 3.5-point favorites and implied to score 103.3 points. Melo should be a little overlooked in this spot and is definitely worth some shots in guaranteed prize pools.
Leverage Play
I’m always curious about how teammates affect each other’s ownership levels in tournaments. If Steph Curry tonight is popular, that in theory should limit the ownership levels of his teammates, but Kevin Durant might be the exception here, as he’s only $9,500 DK and $9,600 FD. He’s projected for 31-35 percent ownership on FD, which is the highest projection among SFs. That seems right, especially against a Raptors team playing on a second leg of a back-to-back. Note that DeMarre Carroll should play tonight after resting last night, which makes this individual matchup a little tougher: Carroll has held opposing SFs to 3.6 DK points below salary-based expectations over the past year. That said, the Warriors are implied for a slate-high 113.25 points currently, and Durant’s price tags are just way too cheap to fade him.
Power Forward
Stud
If you looked at Anthony Davis‘ Plus/Minus graphs, you’d think he has been average lately:
Then you look at his game logs and you see that he has scored at least 47 FD points in each of his last six games. Such is the life of a high-priced DFS player. He’s expensive again at $10,900 DK and $11,400 FD but has an awesome matchup against an Orlando team that currently ranks 24th in the league defensively, allowing 106.7 points per 100 possessions. This is a ‘pace-down’ game for the Pelicans — they’re ranked eighth in pace versus 26th for the Magic — but Brow should still see a ton of minutes (he’s projected for 37.9) and usage (33.1). He will match up against Serge Ibaka, who has a nice defensive reputation but has actually posted an average +0.9 Defensive Real Plus/Minus over the past year and has allowed 2.1 DK points to opposing PFs over that same time frame. Brow can beat this matchup, and if he gets to play a little center and face Nikola Vucevic that’s even better. Davis is projected for a massive 41-plus percent ownership on FD.
Value
I guess we’re going heavy on the Warriors tonight, as Draymond Green seems to be quite a nice PF value play. He’s only $8,300 FD, where he owns 11 Pro Trends and a 68 percent Bargain Rating. At that price, he needs 34.3 points to hit value — a number he’s exceeded in nine of his 10 games this year. His scoring has bumped up a little recently — he has 14, 13, and 16 points in his last three games — and he’s still contributed a bunch of rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Given his versatility, he’s a fairly safe play even if his shot isn’t falling. He leads all PFs on FD tonight with a +5.5 Projected Plus/Minus and will match up against Raptors PF Pascal Siakam to start the game, although he’s been playing only 15-20 minutes after starting. Green is projected for 13-16 percent ownership on FD, but that could dip a little if people go heavy on Steph and Durant and don’t want to stack a team on a large 11-game slate.
Leverage Play
Kevin Love is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, but he’s been so darn consistent this year:
He’s exceeded value in eight of his last nine games by an average of 5.39 FD points per game. He has recorded a double-double in each of his last five games and gets a Pacers team tonight that has the fifth-worst rebound rate (47.7 percent) in the league. Indiana has improved its defense this season — the Pacers currently rank 17th, allowing 105.1 points per 100 possessions after being a bottom-five team to start the year — but Love’s matchup against Thaddeus Young is certainly one he can beat. Young has allowed opposing PFs to score 2.8 points above salary-based expectations in the past year. Love is still just $7,500 on FD, where he holds 12 Pro Trends and a high 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s certainly viable in cash games even on the back-to-back set.
Center
Stud
Tonight might be a time to pay down at the center position, as DeMarcus Cousins faces a top-10 Spurs defense that has held opposing Cs to 1.5 FD points below salary-based expectations this year. Andre Drummond is questionable and has minutes risk even if he does suit up. And Dwight Howard is now questionable with a left quad contusion. Those are the only centers priced above $7,000 on FD. If you’re going to pay up for a center, Cousins is probably the best bet, as he’s at least guaranteed his 30-plus minutes tonight. We’ve seen big games against the Spurs — from Hassan Whiteside, notably — and Boogie himself put up 58.2 FD points in 37.2 minutes against the Spurs in the second game of the season. He’s projected for nine to 12 percent ownership on FD, which is quite low in comparison to other high-priced studs such as Westbrook, Harden, and Brow. He’s worth GPP exposure for sure.
Value
Per our NBA News feed, Al Horford put in a full practice Tuesday and is questionable for tonight’s game. They haven’t rushed him back this year and it seems like he’s truly up in the air as to whether he’ll play tonight. If he’s out again, I think it’s certainly fine to go back to Kelly Olynyk despite his bust in the last game: He scored only 14.1 FD points against the Pelicans. However, there are some positive indicators: He played 35.4 minutes and shot the ball terribly: 1-of-8 from the field and 1-of-7 from the 3-point line. If he gets 30-plus minutes in Horford’s absence again and his shot regresses back to form, he could easily hit value at a silly $3,900 price tag on FD, where he holds a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
With Joel Embiid ruled out tonight, a lot of people will go to Jahlil Okafor, who is getting the start in his place. However, Jah still won’t see more than 25 minutes. While he’s using a solid percentage of possessions (29.6 projected usage rate tonight), there’s some risk here. On the other side of this matchup is a guy who has been very consistent and probably will be overlooked, given Jah’s presence in the slate: Marcin Gortat. Gortat has hit salary-based expectations in seven of his last games (the one he missed was by 0.7 points, by the way), and he put up 37.8 FD points last game against the Bulls. John Wall will play, which gives Gortat his pick-and-roll partner. The Wizards are currently implied for 106.3 points. Gortat is projected to be owned in only five to eight percent of lineups on FD and represents a really nice cash-game option in a slate with risky centers.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
