Wednesday brings a six-game main slate at 7:00pm ET. Let’s jump in.
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas: 209.5 over/under, Knicks -1.5
In a sample size that is growing too large, Carmelo Anthony has averaged 47.12 DraftKings points in games after being ejected this season. Ignoring the three games Anthony left early this season — two ejections and one second half rested because of a sore knee — he’s averaged 38.29 DraftKings points on the road. In his last six games against the Sixers, he’s averaged a -3.35 DK Plus/Minus and met salary-based expectations a third of the time. Combine a sore shooting shoulder with a matchup against the Sixers’ Robert Covington, and it’s easy to see why Anthony profiles more as a GPP play, especially if Derrick Rose gets benched at any point in the game.
Coach Jeff Hornacek said the plan is to start Rose. He didn’t say anything about the fourth quarter, where Ron Baker leads all players over the past three games with an on-court +41 plus-minus in 36 minutes. Rose has provided 50 percent Consistency on FD and DK in road games this season, and two of his three highest-scoring DFS games came in two contests Anthony left early. As a whole, the Knicks are too volatile to trust in cash games at the moment, Rose chief among them.
Jahlil Okafor has played 10 minutes over the past four games, and in that time, the Sixers’ Defensive Rating has bubbled up to sixth overall at 102.1 points allowed per 100 possessions and their 103.0 pace ranks second. Okafor thinks he’ll be able to play vs. the Wizards on Saturday, which signifies Nerlens Noel is entrenched in the rotation for at least the next two games.
Against the Knicks this season, centers have produced a top-three Plus/Minus on both sites and power forwards rank in the top eight for those who were projected to play at least 18 minutes. In seven career games against the Knicks, Noel has averaged a career-best 36.96 DK points and a +8.06 DK Plus/Minus, his best mark against any team. He’s played at least 24 minutes in consecutive games, but he’s played a total of six minutes with Joel Embiid on the court over the past four games. The Knicks’ frontcourt may allow coach Brett Brown to utilize more Embiid-Noel pairings, and Noel costs less than $5,000 on FD and DK. Assuming Brown runs similar rotations, Embiid and Noel will require consideration in all formats with such a great matchup.
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas: 202.5 over/under, Thunder -5
Mike Conley and Victor Oladipo didn’t play in the Grizzlies’ 114-80 win over the Thunder on December 29th.
The Grizzlies are one of two teams presently implied to score less than 100 points. Chandler Parsons will likely play all of his allotted minutes in the first half, and when Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are both healthy, they tend to cannibalize each other on offense. Gasol is cheap enough on DK to explore rostering in cash games, but he’s undercut by the Wizards’ Marcin Gortat by $800. Since returning from an ankle injury, Gasol has maxed out at 43.0 DK points and blocked one shot. Conley gets one of the best matchups for a point guard this season, and he’s compiled at least 36.5 DK points in three straight games alongside Gasol. They have a low correlation number, but Conley’s correlations with Zach Randolph and James Ennis, who typically starts the second half for Parsons, puts him in a better GPP position.
Russell Westbrook was ejected when these teams met two weeks ago, dropping his DK Plus/Minus to -9.79 in his last seven games against the Grizzlies. Aside from not recording any assists or potential assists (per SportVU player tracking) in 23 minutes and shooting 6-of-19 from the floor, Westbrook turned the ball over six times in the first eight minutes and averaged 1.27 DK points per minute, well below his year-long mark of 1.87 DK points per minute.
Westbrook leads all players this season with a +9.60 DK Plus/Minus in home games, and his salary has been driven below $12,000 for the first time since December 14th and fourth time overall at home this season. The Grizzlies did a good job frustrating Westbrook last time, but he’s too cheap (relatively) to flat out ignore in GPPs. He’s done well to exceed 50 FD points in 11 of the past 13 games, improving his standing in cash games as a near lock to hit that mark.
Westbrook and Andre Roberson are highly correlated, and you can imagine Roberson’s home/road splits this season given Westbrook’s dominance. At $3,800 on FanDuel, and with such obvious choices at small forward, Roberson really draws interest only as a punt play.
Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas: 218 over/under, Rockets -3.5
The Rockets are playing their fifth game in seven nights and won’t have the services of Eric Gordon. Zach LaVine is unlikely to play for the Timberwolves, and he’ll warm up prior to the game to see if he can go.
The Rockets haven’t lost the second game of a back-to-back this season, and they’ve provided the best Plus/Minus and Consistency in such games.
Trevor Ariza has been consistent but not explosive in the last eight games against the Timberwolves. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations seven times, and he’s scored anywhere between 21 and 31 FanDuel points. His salary on both sites prices him in that range. He leads all small forwards with 93 percent Consistency on FanDuel over the past month, and he may have to log heavy minutes with Gordon unavailable.
James Harden was so incredible last night that his salary has exceeded Westbrook’s salary and risen to a yearly high of $12,400 on FanDuel. When perusing the other available shooting guards, it quickly becomes a discussion of Harden’s ceiling vs. salary cap relief to spend elsewhere. Many of the expensive options are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, and Harden’s projected ownership is nearly three times higher than that of the next closest shooting guard on DK. Based on the player pool at point guard and shooting guard, the optimal play may be to select Harden over Westbrook just due to the gap in ceiling and floor between the two and the alternatives.
It’s unclear if Montrezl Harrell will start, but that hasn’t mattered much lately, as he’s played at least 25 minutes in nine of the past 10 games. Since it’s the second night of a back-to-back, Nene will likely have his minutes limited, and at 0.92 FD points per minute, Harrell should play enough minutes to clear his salary-implied total of 18.93 FD points.
The handy Karl-Anthony Towns decision tree has presented itself. Is Towns playing at home? If yes, play him. He had the second-best DK Plus/Minus in home games in the chart above, and when the Rockets and Timberwolves played on December 17th, he posted 62.5 DK points in an overtime loss. In the last meeting, the Rockets used Ryan Anderson as the nominal center because Clint Capela was hurt. As a result, Towns was guarded by Anderson with Harden ‘guarding’ Gorgui Dieng or Nemanja Bjelica down the stretch. That’s a potential matchup worthy of exploitation in all formats.
As Mears pointed out yesterday, Ricky Rubio has some gnarly home/road splits as well. And now that LaVine may not play, dabbling in a few tournament shares on DraftKings, where he carries a 66 percent Bargain Rating and projected ownership of only five to eight percent, is one way to get off the field.
When LaVine is off the court, Andrew Wiggins dominates the ball. Per 36 minutes, he has the best FD Plus/Minus differential on the team. Right behind him are Rubio and Shabazz Muhammad, who may start if LaVine doesn’t suit up. The last time LaVine missed a game, Bjelica started and played 40.7 minutes. Muhammad wasn’t available in that game, and because coach Tom Thibodeau relies almost completely on his starters, whoever gets the nod next to Wiggins will be the more attractive value play. Wiggins, who has an extremely negative correlation when LaVine is on the court, has suffered a dip in salary worthy of a must-play if LaVine is ruled out.
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics
Vegas: 217.5 over/under, Celtics -6.5
When these teams played on November 9th, Al Horford and Jae Crowder were injured, Bradley Beal injured his hamstring, and John Wall was ejected. The game became the ‘Otto Porter Show,’ as he erupted for a career-best 72.5 DK points. Both teams are playing on the second night of a back-to-back set tonight.
Since the beginning of the 2014-15 season, Wall has produced a -2.22 DK Plus/Minus on the second night of road back-to-backs with a 37.9 percent Consistency Rating. Among his peers, it’s the second-worst Plus/Minus and third-lowest Consistency with at least 19 such games. As a road underdog on the second night of a back-to-back over the last two seasons, he’s averaged a +2.60 DK Plus/Minus. He possesses the best Opponent Plus/Minus among guards on the slate, a number that is nearly double than that of the next closest point guard, and in two instances earlier this season, Wall averaged 47.12 DK points. He played over 40 minutes in two of the past three games, and as long as he’s not subjected to a minute limitation, Wall’s salary has dropped enough to consider deploying in GPPs.
Al Horford leads the Celtics in average home Plus/Minus (+7.70) and Consistency (83.3 percent) this season. He failed to exceed salary-based expectations three times when blessed with a positive Opponent Plus/Minus, and on the second night of a back-to-back, he’s second on the team with 35.79 DK points on average. Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Smart have led the Celtics in minutes in the three games Bradley has missed this season, and if Bradley is unable to play again, Smart deserves recognition on FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Thomas’ salary and projected ownership in DK GPPs places him in that in-between area as a tournament pivot from some of the cheaper options.
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas: 208.5 over/under, Clippers -10.5
When these teams played on December 14th, Nikola Vucevic and Luc Mbah a Moute were injured. Less than a month later, Blake Griffin won’t play and Serge Ibaka and Elfrid Payton are officially questionable to play.
Aaron Gordon scored a career-high 33 points when the Magic lost to the Clippers on December 14th. He was guarded by the trio of Austin Rivers, J.J. Redick, and Chris Paul.
One thing I’ve tracked independently is how small forwards have performed against the Clippers since Gordon had a career night against them. Mbah a Moute is still feeling the effects of the shoulder injury he suffered, and coach Doc Rivers has slid him up to power forward in Griffin’s absence. That has left Rivers, Wes Johnson, and sometimes Redick to guard opposing small forwards. Recent returns have been solid, and Gordon will likely be guarded by Rivers again. He’s much cheaper on FD, where GPP shares are warranted based on his previous performance.
If Elfrid Payton doesn’t play, D.J. Augustin will likely fall into a large sum of minutes as the lone point guard on the roster. C.J. Watson will also get ball-handling duties, but Augustin’s increased role and salary will shift him to prime real estate as the value play at point guard.
DeAndre Jordan hasn’t scored less than 35.5 DK points in the last four games against the Magic. He’s presently implied to score 32.65 DK points based on his salary, and his Opponent Plus/Minus is the second-best mark among projected starters. He made 12-of-18 free throws against the Magic last month, and when Ibaka is off the court, opposing teams average 48.0 rebounds per game.
Jamal Crawford could be in line for substantial minutes if Rivers is unable to play, but even if Rivers suits up, Crawford can’t be glossed over as a cheap shooting guard option. He’s played at least 30 minutes in seven of the past nine games with varying results. His 25 percent Dud rate nearly excludes him from cash-game consideration, but he has the same Consistency and Upside as Redick over the past month at a much cheaper salary.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas: 220 over/under, Cavs -5
The Cavs and Blazers had trouble flying into Portland last night because of the snowstorm. As it was reported, the Cavaliers arrived around 2am local time and the Blazers landed in Seattle roughly an hour later. The game will reportedly be played, but I don’t know what type of performance we’ll get from either team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back with unusual travel delays.
When these teams played on November 23rd, Kevin Love scored 34 points in the first quarter with Al-Farouq Aminu unable to play. Aminu will likely suit up tonight, and he’ll attempt to limit Love’s production.
Damian Lillard has averaged 44.83 FD points and a +8.73 Plus/Minus in four games against the Cavaliers in our database. The only concern at the beginning of the game is which guard the Cavaliers’ DeAndre Liggins will take at the start. Liggins will usually guard opposing point guards to help hide Kyrie Irving, but there’s no hiding Irving against the duo of Lillard and C.J. McCollum. It’s a fleeting roadblock since Liggins doesn’t typically play more than 24 minutes in a game. Lillard has been capped at 40.0 FD points since returning from a sprained left ankle, and his presence hasn’t largely affected McCollum’s recent production.
Tristan Thompson has exceeded salary-based expectations in 14 of 16 road games this season on FanDuel. Opposing centers projected to play at least 18 minutes have averaged a +4.77 FanDuel Plus/Minus. I’ve talked about the likes of Horford, Gortat, and Jordan as the mid tier centers. If you’re finding it difficult to squeeze the rest of your lineup around them, consider sliding down to Thompson, since the Cavaliers have been worse on the road this season and required more playing time from their starters. Thompson also has the third-best Opponent Plus/Minus for projected starters at his position.
LeBron James, Love, and Irving will all play tonight on the second night of a back-to-back. Amidst the options at small forward, James is the safest option available, and because the Cavaliers are shakier on the road almost regardless of opponent, James is averaging 38.5 minutes per game on the road, which is two minutes more than he plays at home. Love is nearly in the same boat in terms of his position, but it’s unlikely he’ll be guarded by Ed Davis to start the first quarter again, and Irving is a solid tourament pivot at his deep position in case James or Love is given the night off.
News Updates
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