The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Merry Christmas! The Christmas day slate features five games and starts at 12 pm ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, we’ll go game-by-game. For more coverage, make sure to check out our Ultimate Christmas NBA Betting and DFS Guide.
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks (-2.5) – 210 total
Everything the 76ers do on both ends of the court revolves around Joel Embiid. Luckily for them, he returned to the lineup Saturday and is fully expected to play on Christmas. He has one of the biggest pricing discrepancies of the day between the two sites, owning a $9,500 salary on DraftKings and a $10,800 salary on FanDuel. That results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on the former, where Embiid leads all center-eligible players with 11 Pro Trends. Historically, centers with comparable salaries, Bargain Ratings, and number of Pro Trends have provided awesome value:
He may not be a priority option on a slate loaded with star power, but he offers as much upside as anyone.
Ben Simmons hasn’t been nearly as productive recently as he was early in the season, averaging a Plus/Minus of -4.62 over his past 10 games. That said, his $9,400 salary does make him somewhat intriguing on FanDuel. Among the nine priciest options on the slate, he’s the only one with a Bargain Rating above 13 percent:
J.J. Redick is also questionable for this contest, and Simmons has seen a usage increase of approximately three percent with Redick off the court this season:
No one else on the team really stands out as having a great matchup or price point, but they could see a boost in appeal if Redick doesn’t play. Robert Covington has led the team with an average of 35.8 minutes per game in three games without Redick, while Dario Saric has led the team with a Plus/Minus of +9.1 on FanDuel.
The Knicks’ matchup with the 76ers represents a significant pace-up spot, with New York ranking 19th in pace and Philly ranking third. The Knicks have also been markedly better at home this season, averaging 107.8 points per game at MSG compared to just 98.2 per game on the road.
The Knicks are still without Tim Hardaway Jr., which will put even more offensive responsibility than usual on the shoulders of Kristaps Porzingis. He leads the team with a usage rate of 34.5 percent with THJ off the court this season, which represents an increase from his already sky-high usage rate. The matchup with the 76ers has the potential to be a good one for him, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.91.
Courtney Lee seems a bit underpriced on DraftKings, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. His minutes have been a bit up and down recently, but Lee has been an excellent value this season when comparably-priced:
The X-factor for the Knicks in today’s game could be Michael Beasley. He was a monster during the games Porzingis missed recently, but he’s reverted to more of a bench role since the star big man has returned to the lineup. Beasley played just 13 minutes in the Knicks’ last game, which has resulted in a salary decrease of $1,800 on FanDuel for this matchup with the 76ers. That could make him an intriguing buy-low candidate: His average of 1.07 fantasy points per minute over the past month means he doesn’t need to play a ton to return value at his reduced salary.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-5) – 218 total
There are a lot of great games on today’s slate, but this one is the clear headliner. These teams have met in each of the past three NBA Finals and feature two of the top-three teams in the league this season in offensive efficiency. The Warriors’ implied team total of 113.25 is the top mark on the Christmas slate, while the Cavs’ implied team total of 108.25 ranks third. This game will likely feature some of the highest average ownership levels on the slate, but it’s probably a game you want some exposure to nonetheless.
The Cavs have been largely a two-man team for DFS purposes this season, which makes them an easy team to target. LeBron James has been playing arguably the best basketball of his career this season, and the Cavs coaching staff have had no problems playing him big minutes early in the season. His average of 1.66 fantasy points per minute over the past month is the top mark on a slate filled with MVP-caliber talents, and his average of 37.3 minutes per game ranks second in the league. He’s posted a ridiculous 100 percent Consistency Rating and 85 percent Upside Rating over the past month, and his $11,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He has a solid matchup against the Warriors, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.98, although his track record against the Warriors during the regular season isn’t great: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations just once in his past four meetings, although the lone exception did come on Christmas day last season.
Kevin Love has been incredibly productive on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.41 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The only reason he hasn’t averaged more fantasy points overall is the lack of minutes he’s been playing, seeing 30 or less in eight of his past 10 games. That said, at his current salary, the amount of minutes he ultimately plays might not really matter: His $7,500 price tag on DraftKings is its lowest point in nearly a month.
After LeBron and Love, the options for the Cavaliers get dicey at best. Jeff Green has been a decent source of value recently, but he hasn’t really shown the upside necessary for GPPs when the team is at full strength. One potentially intriguing option could be Dwyane Wade. He’s exceeded value in two straight games and has a reputation for stepping up his play in big games.
The Warriors offense has not been the same since the loss of Stephen Curry, and they’re coming off a loss on Saturday in which they scored just 81 points against the Denver Nuggets. However, this matchup with the Cavs could be just what the doctor ordered, as Cleveland ranks 28th in the league in defensive efficiency this season.
Kevin Durant has been amazing since the injury to Curry, averaging a usage rate of 35.9 percent and 57 DraftKings points per game:
The Cavs also represent a phenomenal matchup for him, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.75. He costs $500 less than LeBron on DraftKings, and the combination of reduced salary and better matchup could swing the ownership in his favor on this slate.
Outside of Durant, no one on the Warriors has been able to consistently take advantage of their increased role without Curry. Klay Thompson has posted an average Plus/Minus of just +0.44 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, but his current $6,400 salary is as cheap as it’s been all season. He’s seen a usage bump of 2.4 percent in games without Curry this year, which makes him an intriguing buy-low option given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.61.
Durant and Thompson aren’t the only Warriors with good matchups: Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, and a variety of role players all have Opponent Plus/Minus marks above +4.0:
Iguodala, in particular, could be an appealing value option. He’s averaged 28.5 minutes in games without Curry and has been priced all the way down to $3,900 on DraftKings.
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics (-4.5) – 206 total
This game features the least appealing DFS options of all the Christmas games. Both of these teams rank in the top-10 in defensive efficiency, and Boston combines their elite defense with the seventh-slowest pace in the league. The resulting total on this game is nearly 10 points lower than any other game.
The Wizards are finally back at full strength with Otto Porter rejoining the rotation on Friday against the Brooklyn Nets, although it’s unclear how many minutes he or John Wall will ultimately play against the Celtics. Wall was limited to just 16 minutes on Friday on the front leg of a back-to-back and played only 31 minutes in a game that became a blowout on Saturday. Given that this match against the Celtics is an island game – meaning they have a day of rest on the day before and the day after – it could make Wall an intriguing contrarian option for GPPs. He should have significantly lower ownership than some of the other top PGs, and his current price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel represents a significant discount compared to his typical salary.
Bradley Beal is underpriced on DraftKings at just $7,000 and has historically been a solid value with a comparable salary:
He should have minimal ownership on this slate given that he’s failed to return value in each of his past two games and has a difficult matchup against the Celtics.
The same can be said of Porter assuming he’s not on any sort of minute restriction. He’s shown the ability to post a GPP-winning ceiling and has seen a salary decrease of $1,100 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel over the past month.
The big man rotation for the Wizards has been a mess recently, with not a single option looking like a lock to play 30 minutes. Mike Scott has been very productive recently but seems like one of the top candidates for regression moving forward: He’s shot a ridiculous 69.1 percent from the field and 50 percent from 3-point range over his past five games.
The Celtics are the anti-Cavs: They have a deep roster of players capable of going off in any game. Kyrie Irving is their clear lead dog and a rightful MVP candidate, but he’s actually averaging fewer shots and points per game than in his last season with the Cavs. He does have a solid matchup against the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.91, and Irving has shown what he can do in big, primetime spots (#NarrativeStreet). The Christmas day games would certainly qualify as that, and Irving torched the Warriors for 63 DraftKings points in this situation last season.
Outside of Irving, no one on the Celtics really stands out in this matchup. Marcus Morris could return from an extended absence, which would likely impact the minutes for guys like Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Marcus Smart. Al Horford could have some added appeal on FanDuel, where he’s one of the only top tier centers with a Bargain Rating above 50 percent.
Houston Rockets (-2.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder – 216.5 total
The Rockets feature two of the biggest injuries to monitor heading into the Christmas slate. Both Chris Paul and Clint Capela are questionable, and their absences could create huge opportunities for other members of the team. The biggest beneficiary would of course be James Harden, who has seen a significant bump in usage and has averaged 56.03 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Paul off the court:
He’s crushed in each of his past two games without Paul, scoring over 70 DraftKings points and posting a usage rate of at least 39.7 percent in both. The one big concern with Harden is his matchup with the Thunder. They rank third in defensive efficiency this season, and they feature two elite perimeter defenders in Andre Roberson and Paul George. Last season, OKC was one of the few teams able to actually limit The Beard:
If Capela also misses this contest, Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon should see a nice bump in production. Both players saw at least 40 minutes of playing time in the only contest this year that both Capela and CP3 were inactive. P.J. Tucker and Ryan Anderson could also serve as potential value options, with Anderson in particular owning significant upside at his current price point.
Of course, both Paul and Capela could play in this contest, and, if they do, most of the Rockets are likely overpriced. Paul has a fair price tag at $9,000 on DraftKings, but the Rockets could exercise some caution with him coming off an injury.
Russell Westbrook has dominated for the Thunder recently, owning an average Plus/Minus of +6.13 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He’s returned value in a variety of ways over that time frame, but his calling card recently has surprisingly been his efficiency: He’s shot a combined 61.8 percent from the field over his past four games. While that number is not sustainable – he’s a career 43.2 percent shooter – he can likely make up for it fantasy-wise by increasing his volume. The Rockets have historically been one of Westbrook’s favorite opponents; he’s averaged a ridiculous +8.51 Plus/Minus over his past 15 meetings against them:
It’s hard to give any one stud the edge over the others, but it’s hard to argue against Westbrook’s combination of recent production and matchup.
Both Paul George and Carmelo Anthony have been priced down quite a bit recently, which makes them intriguing mid-range options. That said, the matchup against the Rockets isn’t nearly as good as it seems on paper: Houston currently ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, and neither option has an Opponent Plus/Minus of greater than +2.08 on FanDuel.
Steven Adams might actually be the most appealing non-Westbrook option on the Thunder at $5,500 on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 32.9 minutes in this contest, which would be more than enough for him to return value given his average of 0.95 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Minnesota Timberwolves (-4) at Los Angeles Lakers – 216 total
The last game of the night could offer a lot of fantasy goodness. The Timberwolves have been one of the worst teams in the league in defensive efficiency this season, while the Lakers are currently playing at the fastest pace. That combination could lead to a lot of points scored on both ends of the court.
Karl-Anthony Towns has had a down season after dominating as a sophomore, thanks mostly to a decrease in usage of 4.5 percent. He has picked up his play recently, however, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.81 over his past 10 games. His matchup against the Lakers is one of the best of the day regardless of position, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.67. If he sees the ball on a consistent basis – which unfortunately isn’t always a guarantee – he could be in line for a massive day.
The main reason for Towns’ decline in usage has been the additions of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague, two players who also need the ball in their hands on offense. Butler got off to a slow start this season but has been among the best assets in fantasy over his past 10 games:
He comes at a significant discount from LeBron and KD at the SF position on FanDuel.
Teague has the best matchup on the team outside of Towns, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.22 on DraftKings, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He should enjoy the pace-up spot against the Lakers: He’s historically been a solid value in games with a pace differential (paceD) of at least +3.0:
Andrew Wiggins has been horrid recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.13 over his past 10 games, but his lack of production can be explained by some dreadful shooting numbers over that time frame. He’s shot just 36.3 percent from the field in the month of December; some positive regression in that department could result in nice value at his current depressed salary.
The Lakers look like one of the best sources of value on the Christmas slate. Lonzo Ball seems to have turned a corner with his shooting numbers recently, which has resulted in a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in six of his past seven games. Given his production with assists, rebounds, and steals, any sort of offensive contribution from Ball could mean a huge Christmas night performance.
Brandon Ingram has also been a major contributor for the Lakers recently, but he faces two major problems in this contest. The first is his health: He’s currently questionable for this contest after missing Saturday’s game. The second is his matchup with Butler, who has done his best to limit opposing wing players throughout his whole career. Still, at just $6,300 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel, he might be too cheap to pass up if active given the amount of minutes he’s been playing recently.
Of course, the big story with the Lakers recently has been Kyle Kuzma, who has been playing close to 40 minutes per game since the injury to Brook Lopez. His salary has jumped way up across the industry, but he’s shown the ability to score 50-plus fantasy points. Julius Randle hasn’t seen nearly the same amount of minutes as Kuzma, but he’s much more affordable and has actually been more effective on a per-minute basis this season. Against a Minnesota team that usually employs two traditional big men, he could see toward the high end of his minute range.
Finally, if Ingram is inactive, look for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to see a nice bump in production. So far this season, he’s led the team in Plus/Minus and averaged 35.9 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Ingram off the court:
Good luck and Merry Christmas!
News Updates
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