The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday presents a two-game slate that begins at 8pm ET. The Jazz are the only team implied to score less than 100 points, and they’re presently 13-point underdogs (per the Vegas dashboard). Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
John Wall and Stephen Curry are the most-expensive players on the slate. Wall costs $1,100 more than Curry on DraftKings and $500 more on FanDuel.
For the third straight game, the Wizards are road underdogs implied to score less than 108 points. Prior to the postseason, Wall had averaged a -3.14 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 34.1 percent Consistency in such settings (per the Trends tool). In the postseason, Wall has averaged 52.38 DraftKings points in 38.7 minutes per game in the same situations.
The Wizards could be without Markieff Morris, who is dealing with a sprained left ankle. When Morris has been off the court this postseason, Wall has averaged a +9.8 percent assist rate differential, a +3.5 percent rebound rate differential, a 34.9 percent usage mark, and 1.42 DraftKings points per minute (per the On/Off tool).
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Curry and the Warriors haven’t played since April 24th, and when Curry has received at least two days of rest this year, he’s been terrific:
Alternatively, when Curry has faced a top-six team in defending point guards this season, he’s averaged 44.82 DraftKings points and met salary-based expectations half the time in 14 chances.
Curry has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in 14 straight games, many of which occurred with Kevin Durant sidelined. The Jazz present a pace differential of -8.6, and when the Warriors have faced teams with a negative pace differential between -10 and -6.5, the results have been underwhelming and slightly below Curry’s salary-implied point total tonight:
Chris Paul recorded at least 47.0 DraftKings points in the first six games against the Jazz in the first round, and he was also required to play at least 38 minutes in the final four games sans Blake Griffin. We can use Paul’s success as a proxy for Curry in this case, and while Curry hasn’t performed well against slow-paced teams, he possesses positive indicators heading into tonight’s matchup.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Terry Rozier has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of six playoff games. He costs less than $3,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings, but his minutes have been uneven and mostly limited to garbage time of blowouts. Coach Brad Stevens has used three-guard lineups with Rozier, Isaiah Thomas, and Marcus Smart — a trio that has recorded a 28.3 Net Rating this postseason in 21 minutes. Relying on Rozier to duplicate his eight-rebound effort from Sunday may be foolhardy, but his performance this postseason may warrant more playing time and a dart in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fast Break
Isaiah Thomas: After losing a tooth in Game 1, Thomas missed practice on Monday for significant dental work. Missing walkthrough prior to Game 1 didn’t negatively impact his performance, and after struggling from the 3-point line in the first round, he converted 5-of-9 3-pointers on Sunday. Thomas is cheaper than Curry and Wall on both platforms, and the same trend from Sunday applies: He’s averaged a +5.41 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 75.0 percent Consistency when the Celtics have been favored at home and implied to score at least 110 points.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Bradley Beal and Wall rank seventh in minutes per game this postseason, and Beal ranks in the top-seven in points and field goal attempts per game. Beal leads all shooting guards on the slate in Consistency over the past month at 90 percent, and in the minutes he has spent on the court sans Wall this postseason, he has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute, a +6.3 percent usage rate differential, and a +5.6 percent assist rate differential as a primary playmaker alongside Brandon Jennings. Beal has played without Wall for roughly 6.5 minutes per game, which is enough time to provide roughly a third of his salary-based expectation tonight based on his per-minute production sans Wall.
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Rodney Hood is the lone shooting guard in a team’s primary rotation that costs no more than $4,000 on FanDuel or DraftKings. Due to Hood’s inconsistent performance this postseason — potentially due to lingering knee soreness — Avery Bradley may best qualify as a value option at shooting guard despite his price tag of $6,400 on DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s recorded at least 33.0 FanDuel points in four of the last five games, yet his salary-implied point total rests at 25.96 points today.
Fast Break
Marcus Smart: He started ahead of Gerald Green at the start of the third quarter on Sunday, and he was one of five Celtics to play at least 31 minutes. Green played seven minutes total in Game 1, and Smart was used as a primary defender on Wall, which allowed Thomas to hide on Otto Porter. Smart could get the nod ahead of Green tonight, especially if Kelly Oubre starts for an injured Morris. Smart offers an 86 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings and a +3.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus against teams with a positive pace differential this season.
Small Forwards
Stud
The Warriors are presently favored by 13 points, yet they’re pegged for their lowest Vegas total when favored by that many points at home this season. When the Warriors have been favored at home by at least 10 points but no more than 15, Kevin Durant has led the team in average DraftKings production and Plus/Minus:
In the six total games against teams that have allowed the lowest average DraftKings Plus/Minus to opposing small forwards this season, Durant has averaged 50.79 DraftKings points, which is 8.14 points above his salary-based expectation tonight. He might still be dealing with lingering calf issues, but on April 10th against the Jazz, Durant missed a triple-double by four assists and recorded 42.5 DraftKings points in less than 33 minutes.
Value
Otto Porter found himself guarded by the Celtics’ Thomas at times in Game 1, and once Morris left with an injury, Porter’s rebounding rate improved from 5.4 percent to 14.9 percent. Even if Porter struggles with his shot, he’s a capable enough rebounder to justify the $4,900 salary for the second straight game on FanDuel. When Morris has been off the court, Porter has recorded the second-best usage rate differential on the team at +3.3 percent, and over the past four games, Porter has exceeded salary-based expectations at a salary sub-$5,000 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Jae Crowder: He ranks first among small forwards with 83 percent Consistency on DraftKings over the past month, but he may have overachieved in Game 1 with 24 actual points and 6-of-8 3-point shooting. The small forward player pool is comprised of the most players presently projected to play at least 30 minutes (per the Player Models), and Crowder’s projected ownership is among the lowest on FanDuel at his position.
Power Forwards
Stud
With Morris and Derrick Favors injured and potentially limited today, Draymond Green holds the mantle as the power forward with the safest floor. In the first meeting against the Jazz this season, Green missed out on a triple-double by two assists, and he recorded a combined nine steals in the first two games. Durant was the only starter to play more than 30 minutes in the third and final meeting — his second game back from a hyperextended left knee in a game that was meaningless for the Warriors. Green is one of two power forwards on the slate that is averaging at least 30 minutes per game this postseason, and his salary has dropped to $7,900 on DraftKings.
Green: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Kelly Oubre was the first reserve off the bench in Game 1 and started the second half after Morris suffered a sprained left ankle. Even if Morris plays, he will likely be limited after suffering what he called the worst ankle sprain of his career. Reports indicated the ankle swelled up to the size of a softball, and Morris had this to say:
I got to pass the protocol for the team. That’s final. It’s nothing doctors can say to me to not be able to play. Got an X-Ray and I can see clearly it wasn’t broken so give me leeway for my decision.
Coach Scott Brooks confirmed that Oubre will start if Morris is ruled out. Oubre will spend time guarding the Celtics’ Thomas, and in the opener, he split time with Bojan Bogdanovic, who was exposed defensively throughout the game.
Oubre is listed as a power forward on FanDuel and a small forward on DraftKings, and in both cases he costs no more than $3,500.
Fast Break
Kelly Olynyk: He was one of the many Celtics players to take advantage of Bogdanovic’s inadequate defense. Based on Game 1’s rotations, Olynyk is ahead of Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko in the pecking order, and when Johnson has been off the court in the postseason, Olynyk has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute — the second-highest mark on the Celtics.
Centers
Stud
Al Horford is one of six players averaging at least eight rebounds and seven assists per game in the playoffs. He leads all players in the group with 62.7 percent accuracy from the field, and he’s made half his 3-point attempts. He also ranks in the 100th percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man, per player tracking data from NBA.com. With Johnson off the court this postseason, Horford leads the Celtics with 1.18 DraftKings points per minute, and his ability to orchestrate the offense acts as a solid base for cash games.
Values
Ian Mahinmi has already been ruled out, Jason Smith was dealing with a calf injury heading into the second round, and Marcin Gortat appeared to suffer an ankle injury during the second half of Game 1; after posting 14 points and 10 rebounds in the first half, Gortat was limited to two points and three rebounds the rest of the game. Smith may be a dart worth considering, as he’ll benefit if Morris is ruled out, and Smith’s ability to navigate the Celtics’ Thomas-Horford pick-and-roll could increase his playing time. If Morris and Gortat are limited, Smith may provide incredible value at $2,700 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert: He dealt with a knee and ankle injury to his left leg during the first round, but with Favors diagnosed with a sore back, Gobert may be forced to play well over 30 minutes. Otherwise, Jeff Withey will become an integral character tonight, and that may still be the case as the Jazz are presently double-digit underdogs. In three games against the Warriors this season, Gobert made 76.9 percent of his shots and averaged 17.3 rebounds per game. Gobert is predictably projected for the highest ownership at his position on DraftKings.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
