The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday presents a three-game slate that begins at 8pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
Russell Westbrook costs $14,200 on DraftKings and $14,700 on FanDuel — the highest salaries for any player on both sites in our database. He’s recorded three straight triple-doubles and played at least 38 minutes in three straight games for the first time all season. In an elimination game, Westbrook may be forced to play close to 45 minutes even though the Thunder have resisted playing him in 12-minute intervals this season. The Thunder have been road underdogs against the Rockets on four occasions this season, and here is how Westbrook fared on FanDuel in those spots (per our Trends tool):
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
With Blake Griffin off the court this postseason, Chris Paul has led the Clippers with a 38.3 percent usage rate, a 61.5 percent assist rate, and 1.56 DraftKings points per minute (per the On/Off tool). Paul has also ranked second on the Clippers with a 17.2 percent rebound rate. His postseason rates are similar to Westbrook’s regular season rates, and Paul costs $3,900 less on DraftKings and $4,300 less on FanDuel.
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
On Sunday’s slate, Westbrook and Paul were two of the four highest-owned players in DraftKings guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on a slate with LeBron James, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and James Harden (per the DFS Ownership Dashboard). Paul is considerably underpriced and profiles well in all formats as the primary scorer and distributor on the Clippers sans Griffin. Westbrook’s unprecedented salary is justified and long overdue based on his production, but his historic salaries create a salary cap dilemma. Westbrook will continue to be an elite GPP option, and one who will likely be highly-owned.
Value
Raymond Felton has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games on DraftKings, and with Griffin off the court, Felton has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute. The Clippers have played at a pace of 97.77 possessions per 48 minutes during that time, which is an improvement from a team pace of 91.17. Austin Rivers said he’ll play tonight, but coach Doc Rivers confirmed that his son will be on a strict minutes limit. Felton costs $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel, and in both cases, his projected ownership is zero to one percent. If coach Rivers keeps Felton in a similar role as he was in Game 4, Felton will be in a position to at least meet salary-based expectations.
Fast Break
Mike Conley: In eight games against the Spurs this season, Conley has averaged 40.03 DraftKings points. His salary-implied point total tonight is 37.65 DraftKings points, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the first four games of the series. With Andrew Harrison on the court with Conley, the All-Star point guard has led the Grizzlies with a +5.6 percent usage rate differential. Conley may go overlooked due to the presence of Westbrook, Paul, and Harden, creating a potential ownership advantage.
Conley: DFS Scouting Report
Shooting Guards
Stud
James Harden suffered an ankle injury during Game 3, and it limited his productivity in Game 4. He registered 35.25 DraftKings points and seven free throw attempts in 39.3 minutes.
In eight games against the Thunder this season, Harden has averaged 46.95 FanDuel points. His FanDuel salary-implied point total today is 52.74. Harden costs $10,600 on DraftKings — a very enticing salary given his year-long production. However, if the ankle continues to limit his mobility, Harden’s field goal and free throw attempt rates may not warrant the expenditure. The dropoff from Harden to the next most expensive shooting guard is cavernous in terms of projected points, floor, and ceiling. His floor is similar to his production in Game 4 and more than double the floors of the rest of the shooting guards on the slate. Should Harden maintain his 1.38 DraftKings points per minute postseason pace tonight, he’ll be on track to exceed his salary-based expectation of 50.65 points.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Eric Gordon and Lou Williams have propped up the Rockets’ bench unit, and since coach Mike D’Antoni has utilized a strict eight-man rotation, Gordon and Williams are solid bets for 27-34 minutes a night. Gordon has played more minutes than Williams in this series, but Williams has averaged more DFS points per minute and the second-highest usage rate on the Rockets at 25.0 percent. Williams is cheaper on FanDuel, where he’s recorded a position-high 100 percent Consistency Rating and 69 percent Upside Rating over the last month. Gordon is cheaper on DraftKings, and neither costs more than $5,400 on either site.
Fast Break
Victor Oladipo: He is the second-most expensive shooting guard on the slate, and after a lackluster Game 1 performance, Oladipo has exceeded salary-based expectations in three consecutive games. Shooting guards facing the Rockets this season and projected to play more than 20 minutes have averaged a +3.16 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 62.0 percent Consistency — the second-highest marks in both categories this year.
Jamal Crawford: He exploded for 29.2 FanDuel points in 31.45 minutes in Game 4, and his salary has decreased $500 since then. He didn’t hit a 3-pointer in the first three games, and he’s extremely scoring-dependent, which reduces his utility in cash games. Nonetheless, he’s produced only one dud over the last month, and with Griffin off the court in this series, Crawford has ranked second on the team with a 25.2 percent usage rate.
Small Forwards
Stud
Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker are the only Spurs to average a positive DraftKings Plus/Minus in the postseason, and Leonard leads the Spurs’ rotation players with a 33.4 percent usage rate, an 18.7 percent assist rate, and 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. He’s the elite option at small forward, but his salary may impede your ability to stack Paul, Westbrook, or Harden. Leonard provides a 95 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and in the first two home games in the series, he exceeded tonight’s salary-based expectation. The Spurs are presently favored by 10 points (per the Vegas dashboard), and when that has been the case during the regular season, Leonard has struggled to offer value:
The trend didn’t hold true in Game 1 when Leonard provided 53.25 DraftKings points in 40.37 minutes, and since Gordon Hayward is dealing with food poisoning and has been poor as a road underdog this season (-4.80 DraftKings Plus/Minus), Leonard’s stability as the premier cash-game small forward may be magnified on this slate.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Andre Roberson costs a season-high $5,800 on FanDuel and season-high $5,700 on DraftKings. His home/road splits are concerning heading into Game 5 in Houston, but Roberson was able to provide 39.25 and 32.0 DraftKings points in the first two games on the road. All of his minutes have been tied to Harden’s, except for a two-minute span in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss. It’s unclear what psychological impact Roberson felt after being intentionally fouled repeatedly and missing 10-of-12 free throws in Game 4’s loss.
Joe Ingles exceeded expectations in Game 4, when he produced 38.90 DraftKings points in 38 minutes, but that may have been assisted by the absence of Hayward for all but nine minutes. Ingles’ salary-implied point total on FanDuel is lower than his production in each of the last three games — all games in which he failed to score more than nine actual points. He leads the Jazz with a 21.9 percent assist rate this postseason, and he’s played the second-most minutes on the team through four games.
Fast Break
Trevor Ariza: He leads all players on this slate with 38.6 minutes per game during the postseason. He’s also attempted the fewest shots per game among the top-50 players in minutes played at 6.5. Ariza reemerged in Game 4 for 31.75 DraftKings points in 42.77 minutes, and he played extensive time at power forward. His salary has increased to $5,100, and when the Rockets have been at home this season, Ariza has responded with a +2.91 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 62.8 percent Consistency.
Power Forwards
Studs
Zach Randolph and LaMarcus Aldridge are the two most-expensive power forwards on the slate.
With Randolph on the court, Aldridge has made 44.8 percent of his shots with Randolph as the primary defender. With Randolph off the court, Aldridge has converted 56.3 percent of his shots with JaMychal Green as the primary defender. Since Randolph will likely remain in the starting lineup, Aldridge may continue to struggle offensively.
Randolph costs $400 more than Aldridge on DraftKings and $600 less than Aldridge on FanDuel. Each is projected to be higher-owned on the site where they cost less than the other player, which creates a potential leverage route. The power forward position isn’t stocked with elite options, which lessens the need to load up on Randolph or Aldridge, who are the only power forwards presently projected to play more than 30 minutes.
Values
JaMychal Green possesses a team-best 126.6 Offensive Rating. He struggled with foul trouble in the first two games of the series, but he has posted 19.5 DraftKings points in the last two games as a reserve. His salary has decreased to $3,300 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and despite coming off the bench in the last two games, he has played at least 23 minutes both times and has produced at least 15.2 FanDuel points.
David Lee costs $3,200 on FanDuel, and he started for the sick Dewayne Dedmon in Game 4’s loss. It’s unclear if coach Gregg Popovich will return to Dedmon in the starting lineup, but Dedmon failed to play more than 11 minutes in Games 2 and 3 before missing Game 4 with an illness. Lee is cheap enough on FanDuel to potentially warrant consideration as a value play, and in three of the four games in this series, he has exceeded 10 FanDuel points.
Fast Break
Davis Bertans: He’s played 21.5 total minutes over the past two games. There’s no guarantee he gets any playing time tonight, especially with Dedmon available. Bertans costs $1,500 on FanDuel and $2,000 on DraftKings, and if coach Gregg Popovich does something unexpected (like extend the leash for Bertans due to his ability to space the floor), Bertans will likely need no more than eight minutes to meet salary-based expectations. It’s more of a Hail Mary than a punt play.
Centers
Stud
Marc Gasol‘s salary is $7,100 on DraftKings, and he’s the third-most expensive center on FanDuel and DraftKings. Only one center on FanDuel claims a Bargain Rating greater than 44 percent, and that’s Dedmon. Gasol would have failed to meet salary-based expectations in Game 4 had it not gone into overtime, but he’s been consistent, steadily producing at least 35 DraftKings points in three of the four games of the series. Conley and Randolph have consumed most of the offensive possessions over the last two games — that coincides with Randolph joining the starting unit — and Gasol ranks third out of the trio with 0.85 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Nene has converted 46-of-55 shots in eight games against the Thunder this season. He hasn’t played more than 26 minutes in any game against the Thunder, and he’s averaged a +7.82 DraftKings Plus/Minus against them. He costs a season-high $5,200 on FanDuel, and he may be underpriced on DraftKings at $4,400. Since Clint Capela has struggled over the past two games, it’s likely Nene continues to play more minutes than Capela, but neither is expected to receive more than 26 minutes. Nene will likely be the chalk play of the slate, especially after recording 45.0 DraftKings points in Game 4 in less than 26 minutes.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan: He’s the second-most expensive center on the slate, and since it’s likely Rudy Gobert will have a minutes restriction, that leaves Jordan with the highest projected floor at his position. Jordan costs $100 less than Gobert and $800 more than Gasol on DraftKings, and he’s presently projected to be the highest-owned center in GPPs. While Nene will likely be another popular option, Jordan could end up playing more minutes than any center on the slate.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
