Tuesday presents a three-game slate that begins at 7pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Stud
Isaiah Thomas plans to play tonight, and he was sensational in Game 1. He played 38-plus minutes for the eighth time all season, and in the previous seven instances, he scored at least 34 actual points and attempted at least 10 3-pointers each time. Thirty-four is significant since Thomas’ salary-implied point total tonight is 35.18 DraftKings points, and he would have provided value with just his scoring category in those previous outings. He is presently projected for the highest ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at his position — a number that can be tracked in the Ownership dashboard once the games begin — and the Celtics are presently implied to score a slate-best 106.75 points (per the Vegas dashboard).
Value
Malcolm Brogdon is the cheapest projected starting point guard on the slate. He no longer has a minutes limit after missing extended time with a sore back. The Bucks are presently implied to score a slate-low and season-low 92.75 points, and the Bucks-Raptors series ranks second-to-last in pace at 90 possessions per 48 minutes. Brogdon has led the Bucks with a +2.5 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 88 percent Consistency over the last month. His salary ranged between $4,800 and $5,100 during that span, and he costs $5,200 tonight, placing him firmly in cash-game consideration.
Fast Break
George Hill: He played 37 minutes in Game 1 but was limited to 23.8 FanDuel points. He costs $100 more than Brogdon on FanDuel, which improves his case as a pivot option. He may still be hampered by a groin injury that forced him to miss six games late in March, but with the Clippers’ Luc Mbah a Moute containing Gordon Hayward, Hill may be a solid leverage play.
Kyle Lowry: After a poor showing in Game 1, it’s likely his ownership numbers drop, creating a potential edge in GPPs due to recency bias. He’s a candidate for a bounce-back game, and he costs no more than $7,600 on FanDuel for the sixth time all season.
Lowry: DFS Scouting Report
Shooting Guards
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo confirmed that the Raptors did not guard him differently on Sunday than they did during the regular season. Raptors coach Dwane Casey confirmed that DeMarre Carroll will remain in the starting lineup — a matchup that benefited Antetokounmpo in the first game of the series. When Carroll was the court, nine of Antetokounmpo’s 10 attempts occurred within five feet of the rim. He did deal with some foul trouble, which was an issue during the regular season, but he’s averaged 46.82 FanDuel points in five games against the Raptors this year. Compared to his salary-implied point total, Antetokounmpo doesn’t provide much room for error, but his projected floor and projected playing time should be considered solid when compared to the rest of the options at his position.
DeMar DeRozan started out well against the Bucks in Game 1, and then he fizzled out in the second half, converting 1-of-8 shot attempts. DeRozan offers the highest projected floor at his position, especially on DraftKings where Giannis is not shooting guard-eligible. Because the Bucks limited the Raptors to an 89.7 Offensive Rating in the first game, many of the Raptors carry significant risk. DeRozan leads them all in projected usage rate, minutes, and ownership, and his success in the first half of Game 1 aided his ability to exceed salary-based expectations in 39 minutes. DeRozan was on track for 40 minutes before coach Casey benched his starters for the final two minutes.
Values
Value at shooting guard is hard to find in this slate, leaving the position top-heavy. Matthew Dellavedova possesses point guard- and shooting guard-eligibility on DraftKings, where he costs $2,800. He had an integral role in the rotation on Saturday, playing 31.5 minutes. He and Tony Snell are among the cheapest players available projected to play close to 30 minutes. Due to the lack of suitable value plays at shooting guard, DeRozan and Antetokounmpo will likely be highly-owned once again.
Fast Break
Dwyane Wade: The Bulls had one day of rest between the first two games of the series, and rest has been a key component to Wade’s success. He doesn’t offer a high ceiling for GPPs, but with the value market bare at shooting guard, Wade provides a solid floor worthy of cash games.
Small Forwards
Stud
Jimmy Butler played half his minutes with Wade and Rajon Rondo on the court Sunday and was limited to 0.92 DraftKings points per minute, a 26.1 percent usage rate, and a 16.7 percent assist rate (per the On/Off tool). When either Wade or Rondo was off the court in the other 20 minutes, Butler recorded 1.54 DraftKings points per minute, and that was aided by a stretch in the fourth quarter when Rondo was benched in favor of Jerian Grant. In the 14 minutes Butler played sans Rando, he produced 1.84 DraftKings points per minute and a 37.3 percent usage rate. As long as coach Fred Hoiberg finds intervals in which to stagger the minutes for Butler, Wade, and Rondo, Butler should continue to provide elite production.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Since the beginning of February, Joe Johnson has averaged 23.36 FanDuel points and a +8.75 FanDuel Plus/Minus when receiving at least two days of rest. During the season, Johnson converted 53 percent of his attempts and 50 percent on 3-pointers when given at least two days off. Conversely, he made 40.7 percent of his shots on zero or one day of rest this season. He and Joe Ingles are expected to play significant minutes in Game 2 following a two-day break, and both cost less than $5,000 on FanDuel and $5,100 on DraftKings. Johnson scored a team-high 21 actual points in the Game 1 win, and Ingles provides value on DraftKings due to his shooting guard-eligibility.
Khris Middleton is the cheapest player presently projected to play at least 40 minutes in the Player Models. He crossed that minute threshold in Game 1 and still failed to meet salary-based expectations on DraftKings despite recording a game-high nine assists. He continues to struggle with his shot, but due to the crossmatching in this game, Middleton was guarded by Cory Joseph sporadically and took advantage of the smaller guard in the post, which led to double teams and kick outs to wide-open 3-point shooters.
Fast Break
Jae Crowder: He picked up two fouls early in the first half of Game 1 and was limited to 31 minutes. If he can avoid foul trouble — a tall order considering Jimmy Butler ranks fifth in the NBA in personal fouls drawn per game — Crowder’s playing time should increase closer to last season’s postseason levels when he played at least 34 minutes.
P.J. Tucker: He could play more minutes than DeMarre Carroll for the second straight game simply due to Tucker’s relative success guarding Antetokounmpo. Tucker’s production was limited during 29 minutes on Saturday, but with the news that Serge Ibaka is a game-time decision, Tucker could slide into the starting lineup and match Antetokounmpo minute-for-minute.
Power Forwards
Stud
Blake Griffin ranked second in total touches in the first game of the postseason, slotted behind teammate Chris Paul. Griffin was noticeably stymied by Joe Johnson in the second half on Saturday, but he played 42.7 minutes and currently ranks seventh in postseason usage rate. His salary has declined to $7,600 on DraftKings, and that comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating there. The Clippers offense revolved around Griffin and Paul in the opener, and players projected for a usage rate between 25 and 30 percent and minutes between 37 and 43 have been solid options when favored at home this season, eclipsing Griffin’s salary-implied point total today of 35.65 points:
Griffin: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Derrick Favors is expected to start at center with Rudy Gobert unavailable. Favors’ production may wax and wane due to lingering knee soreness, and he admitted that he’s not in peak physical condition after missing a large portion of the season. However, Favors is priced similarly to Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis, both of whom are ultimate GPP plays and aren’t expected to receive playing time similar to that of Favors. Based on the relative options at power forward, Favors stands out as the value play on the slate.
Fast Break
Serge Ibaka: He suffered an ankle injury during the first game of the series, and he admitted that he would have struggled to play if Game 2 was on Monday. Ibaka has been solid when given at least one day of rest this season, averaging a +2.53 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool), and he’s officially a game-time decision. His condition may reduce his ownership in GPPs, but if he plays, he’ll likely be counted on to play significant minutes.
Centers
Stud
Al Horford is the second-most expensive center on the slate, and he missed a triple-double by three rebounds and two assists in the series opener. That game also marked the first time all season that Horford played at least 40 minutes in a game. He and DeAndre Jordan are the only centers on the slate that could legitimately challenge for 40 minutes tonight, and Jordan has consistently averaged close to 34 minutes during the postseason. Jordan costs $600 more than Horford on FanDuel and DraftKings, and Horford has produced a solid track record when claiming a positive Opponent Plus/Minus:
Values
Robin Lopez secured eight offensive rebounds in the first game of the series, and all of his production came from scoring or rebounding. He costs $5,100 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and aside from two duds over the past 10 games, Lopez has provided solid value recently:
Fast Break
Greg Monroe: Coach Jason Kidd condensed his rotation in the second half of Game 1, relying on eight core players and prioritizing Monroe as the primary center off the bench. The plan worked, which leads me to believe Kidd will employ a similar strategy. A limited Ibaka bodes well for the Bucks’ interior offense, and in the last three games that Monroe played at least 20 minutes, he averaged 33.3 FanDuel points.
News Updates
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