The Hawks are the only team competing for playoff seeding tonight. The only other playoff team in action tonight is the Thunder, and they have nothing to gain by playing their starters regular minutes. Tuesday offers a five-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
The Nuggets are facing a Mavs team that has focused on developing their younger players, and over the last four games, they have ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency and 20th in pace. The small sample can skew the data, but it coincides with the games when veterans were either taking whole games or the entire second half off. The Mavs’ second-half defensive efficiency of 117.3 over the last four games is five points per 100 possessions worse than that of the Lakers’ league-worst overall defensive efficiency since the All-Star break.
Jamal Murray will likely see extensive minutes and usage with Jameer Nelson, Will Barton, Danilo Gallinari, and Kenneth Faried all ruled out. Emmanuel Mudiay is presently questionable with a sprained right ankle, and if the Nuggets decide to rest Mudiay, Murray will instantly become the chalk. His salary-implied point total is less than 19 FanDuel points — a number he has exceeded in each of the last four games.
Values
Hornets coach Steve Clifford didn’t tax his starters last night, and on the second night of a back-to-back, it’s unlikely they see extended run despite playing a team competing for a postseason spot. Brian Roberts and Briante Weber shared point guard minutes and combined for three total assists. They both cost the minimum on DraftKings, and if Nicolas Batum is rested, Roberts will likely assume more facilitating responsibilities in the first unit.
Yogi Ferrell is a point guard facing the Nuggets. He ranks second on the entire slate in Opponent Plus/Minus, and per our Trends tool, points guards projected to play 18 minutes against the Nuggets this season have supplied a +5.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus on a league-best 72.2 percent Consistency. There is very little that is certain about this slate, but coach Rick Carlisle is clearing the runway for the younger players to get more minutes, and Ferrell qualifies as one of those younger players. When Ferrell faced the Nuggets on February 6th, he recorded 28.9 FanDuel points, which is 10 points more than today’s salary-implied point total.
Fast Break
Tyler Ulis: In the two games Devin Booker has missed since the All-Star break, Ulis has averaged 39.65 FanDuel points and a +13.3 assist rate differential in 41.6 minutes. Over the last 10 games, Ulis has produced a +7.21 FanDuel Plus/Minus despite a now-elevated salary.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Nicolas Batum played 30 minutes last night and led the Hornets with eight assists. It’s the final Hornets game of the season, which could lead to potential rest. If Batum is cleared to play — and we should know before the slate locks — he may provide the safest floor in his 30 minutes. If Batum is given the night off, Jeremy Lamb will become the popular value option. When Kemba Walker has been off the court this season, Batum has recorded a team-best 1.11 DraftKings points per minute and a +7.4 assist rate differential.
Values
When Russell Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Taj Gibson, and Doug McDermott have been off the court this season, Victor Oladipo has led the Thunder with a +8.8 percent usage rate differential and a +8.8 assist rate differential. Over the last 15 games. the Timberwolves have ranked last in defensive efficiency, allowing 116.3 points per 100 possessions. Regardless of whether Semaj Christon or Norris Cole get the start, Oladipo figures to lead the offense as the primary initiator.
Nicolas Brussino went for an 11-5-5 line in the last game as the backup playmaker. He costs the minimum on DraftKings, and point guards have performed quite well against the Nuggets this season. Even though Brussino isn’t built like a point guard at 6-foot-7, that’s his role when Ferrell is on the bench late in the game and J.J. Barea and Devin Harris are done for the night.
Fast Break
Jordan Crawford: He’s attempted at least 16 shots and played at least 29 minutes in two straight games. Over the last 10 games, he’s averaged a +6.31 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency. He will likely have to compete with E’Twaun Moore, Quinn Cook, and Axel Toupane for minutes in the backcourt, but his recent form has been solid enough to provide value on FanDuel at $3,700 against a Lakers team that has ranked last in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break.
Small Forwards
Studs
Andrew Wiggins has averaged 24.47 FanDuel points in three games against the Thunder this season and converted 35.7 percent of his shots (15-of-42) when sharing the court with Andre Roberson, who will rest tonight. Wiggins hasn’t played less than 37 minutes in the last three games, and he’s attempted at least 20 shots in seven straight games, which has helped him exceed salary-based expectations each time on DraftKings. Now that Roberson has been ruled out, Wiggins will likely become a lock in all formats. Per our Matchups page, he’s projected to be guarded by Jerami Grant.
In three games against the Kings this year, T.J. Warren averaged 32.1 FanDuel points, and in the most recent game, he supplied 41.3 FanDuel points. In the two games Booker has missed since the All-Star break, Warren has averaged 38.5 DraftKings points in 42.3 minutes. Based on the dearth of present value at small forward, pairing Wiggins and Warren on FanDuel may be the optimal route.
Values
The value at small forward is close to non-existent. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could qualify at $4,300 on FanDuel, but he played a team-high 32 minutes last night. If coach Steve Clifford opts to tone down Kidd-Gilchrist’s minutes in favor of Treveon Graham, Kidd-Gilchrist will likely be unable to meet salary-based expectations. Brandon Ingram may remain on a minutes restriction, but he was allowed to play 29 minutes in the last game. Dante Cunningham will likely remain in the starting lineup for the injured Anthony Davis, but Cunningham was limited to 11.8 and 12.0 FanDuel points in the last two starts.
Among small forwards cheaper than $5,000 on FanDuel, Ingram’s minutes may be the most stable. As mentioned in Sunday’s breakdown, Ingram’s usage rate this month (25.3 percent) is higher than his usage rate on the season (16.5 percent). He’s attempted at least 10 shots in nine of the last 11 games, and when D’Angelo Russell has been off the court since the All-Star break, Ingram has recorded 0.84 DraftKings points per minute (per our On/Off tool).
Fast Break
Wilson Chandler: Chandler looks like the only vet that may actually get minutes for the Nuggets tonight. However, with the other ones receiving the night off, it’s unclear how many minutes Chandler will get now that the Nuggets are eliminated from the postseason.
Power Forwards
Stud
Paul Millsap is the most expensive power forward on DraftKings. The Hawks have clinched a playoff birth but not a seed, and they are playing their fourth game in six nights. Millsap’s ownership could be dragged down due to the plethora of value plays at his position (his ownership can be viewed in our Ownership dashboard a few moments after the contests begin). Power forwards facing the Hornets this season have provided the highest Consistency rating in the league, which mirrors Millsap’s potential today; he has a good chance at seeing solid minutes given their circumstance.
Values
Dwight Powell will likely continue to get force-fed minutes. Over the last two games, he’s supplied 23.5 and 37.25 DraftKings points while receiving at least 25 minutes each time. He costs $3,800 on FanDuel and $3,700 on DraftKings, and he ranks third at his position in Opponent Plus/Minus.
Juancho Hernangomez is expected to see an increase in playing time, per coach Michael Malone, with Gallinari and Faried ruled out tonight. He costs the minimum on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the Mavs’ last three opponents have all scored at least 100 points.
Fast Break
Larry Nance Jr.: He will likely continue to start at center for the Lakers, but his minutes can’t be relied upon with the power forward and center minutes going to Julius Randle, Tarik Black, and Thomas Robinson. With D’Angelo Russell off the court since the All-Star break, Randle has averaged a team-high 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and a +6.1 percent usage rate differential; Nance’s rebound rate differential of +3.0 percent leads the team in that situation.
Centers
Studs
Since the Timberwolves were eliminated from the postseason, Karl-Anthony Towns has played 38.5, 27.6, 39.0, 31.7, and 41.2 minutes. Due to the cheaper options on the slate, Towns may get glossed over. However, his projected floor on FanDuel is more than double that of the next closest center, per our Player Models. The Thunder won’t have Taj Gibson at their disposal, and Towns is the most expensive option on a slate filled with value options. His minutes appear safe enough to ride in cash games, and his ceiling is beyond compare on this slate.
Value
Alexis Ajinca, should he start, gets the best matchup of the night with a +5.86 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus. The Lakers have actually ranked in the top-10 in defensive efficiency over the last five games, but centers have continued to give the Lakers trouble. In the last two games, Ajinca has provided 27.25 and 26.0 DraftKings points in roughly 27 minutes each time. He’ll likely be the chalk on both sites at center.
Enes Kanter leads the Thunder in usage rate (31.2 percent) and DraftKings points per minute (1.28) when Westbrook, Roberson, Gibson, and McDermott are off the court. Since the All-Star break, those numbers have improved to a 35.5 percent usage rate and 1.48 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Mason Plumlee: He’ll step into more minutes with Faried sidelined, and he costs $4,400 on DraftKings. In the last three games Plumlee played at least 25 minutes, he produced 28.25, 34.25, and 26.25 DraftKings points.
Dragan Bender: He played 35 minutes on Sunday. He has center eligibility on DraftKings, where he costs the minimum. It’s unclear if the Suns will scale his minutes down again, but he’s on the radar now as a punt play.
News Updates
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