Tuesday brings a three-game main slate at 8pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas: 221.5 over/under, Thunder -6.5
The Blazers and Thunder have played three times this season. I authored the breakdown for the past two meetings, and they were quite similar. They played against each other as recently as last Thursday, and the home team has won all three games.
Damian Lillard rested the entire All-Star break (per The Oregonian), and he hasn’t recorded fewer than 43 DK points in the subsequent five games. In three games against the Thunder this season, he’s averaged 43.92 DK points. It also helps to have a screen-setter like Jusuf Nurkic, who is second in the NBA with 6.0 screen assists per game since the All-Star break, per NBA.com. Nurkic has also contested the most two-point attempts on a per-game basis over the same span, which helped him record five blocks against the Thunder last week.
Both Lillard and Nurkic profile as highly-owned players at their position this evening. Nurkic is the most expensive center on both sites, and Lillard is the third-most expensive player on either platform.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
C.J. McCollum has largely been guarded by the Thunder’s Andre Roberson in the previous three meetings. His field goal percentage of 36.4 percent when sharing the court with Roberson (8-of-22 overall) captures his struggles. His usage rate drops from his yearly mark of 27.8 percent to 21.7 percent with Roberson on the court, and his assist rate declines from 17.7 percent overall to 9.9 percent. It’s an unenviable matchup that has seemingly resulted in McCollum receiving fewer touches.
Maurice Harkless has played at least 30 minutes in five straight games, and when the Blazers faced the Thunder last Thursday, he recorded 22.8 FD points. Based on the small forward options, Harkless has just as much intrigue as any of them. Al-Farouq Aminu is in the same situation among the power forwards, and he provided 30.7 FD points against the Thunder the last time out.
Russell Westbrook costs $13,400 on DraftKings — the highest salary in our database going back to the 2014-15 season. The four most-expensive players on DraftKings and FanDuel are point guards. Every small forward, power forward, and center costs less than $7,000 on both sites.
When the Thunder are home favorites, Westbrook averages 68.69 DK points on 84 percent Consistency, and when the Thunder are implied to score at least 107 points, Westbrook averages 70.97 DK points on 86.7 percent Consistency. He certainly carries the vitals to be the most owned player on the slate. The problem lies with surrounding him with value plays, of which there are few.
In three games against the Blazers this season, Westbrook has averaged his worst DK Plus/Minus, and in the previous home game against the Blazers, he missed salary-based expectations by 4.15 points at $12,800.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Steven Adams or Enes Kanter? Adams played 24 minutes against the Blazers last Thursday and Kanter played 28 minutes. Adams recorded the worst DFS performance of the season with 10.0 DK points, as he struggled to defend on the perimeter when paired with Kanter. After clearing at least 22.0 DK points in eight straight games against them, he tanked. Kanter, on the other hand, was on the court nearly the entire second half with Taj Gibson, and he produced 33.0 DK points in extended time. While Adams previously had the track record against the Blazers, coach Billy Donovan opted to run with Kanter against Nurkic. Adams doesn’t offer a ceiling akin to that of Kanter, and since they cost roughly the same salary, Kanter will offer more value on a three-game slate.
Victor Oladipo and Alex Abrines both practiced Monday. Abrines should be fine; Oladipo will be a game-time decision. Oladipo recorded 52.75 DK points against the Blazers earlier this season, and that’s one reason to consider him as a GPP dart. It’s unclear if he’ll have a minute limitation, but since the game is the first on the docket, we’ll know his status before lineups lock.
It’s time to dust off the Andre Roberson home/road splits because they matter on a three-game slate.
He’s highly correlated with Westbrook, who leads all players in average Plus/Minus at home this season, and when the Thunder are implied to score at least 108 points, Roberson hasn’t recorded less than 17 DK points since November 25th — a stretch of 18 straight games.
Gibson played 33 minutes to Domantas Sabonis’ 10 minutes last Thursday, and Gibson has played more minutes than Sabonis in the last five games. He’s still sub-$4k on DK, and he notched 33.0 DK points against the Thunder last week. Consider him a dire punt play.
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks
Vegas: 205 over/under, Mavs -10
In the previous three games this season, the Mavericks averaged 110.67 points and the Lakers averaged 85.33 points. In the most recent meeting, Brandon Ingram started at point guard for the injured D’Angelo Russell and the Lakers lost 122-73.
The overall pace of 91.27 possessions per 48 minutes between these teams displays how well the Mavericks controlled the tempo. Their Defense Rating leveled out at 94.6 points allowed per 100 possessions and their Offensive Rating topped out at a season-high 121.1 points scored per 100 possessions. Both marks are roughly seven points better than the season leader in each category.
Although the Mavs have ranked last in rebound rate this season (46.5 percent), their rebound rate against the Lakers has been their second-best mark (55.4 percent). Since Tarik Black moved into the starting lineup ahead of Timofey Mozgov, the Lakers have ranked 29th in rebound rate and last in Offensive Efficiency, scoring 100.2 points per 100 possessions over the past nine games.
That was the prelude to a bleak contest with the lowest implied point total.
Ivica Zubac is officially questionable, and Larry Nance was cleared to play. On Sunday, Black was assessed two fouls in the first five minutes, keeping in line with his reputation since he averages 6.1 fouls per 36 minutes. Assuming he plays less than 20 minutes again because of foul trouble and Zubac is out, Julius Randle will likely be tasked with additional minutes.
Randle has been underwhelming in the previous three games against the Mavs, and he hasn’t been the only one:
Based on positional production, power forwards have struggled the most against the Mavs (projected 18 minutes minimum):
Despite the -4.97 FD Opponent Plus/Minus, Russell deserves consideration as a PG2 on FD due to the 97 percent Bargain Rating and lack of alternatives in his price range. He’s played at least 29 minutes in five straight games since the All-Star break, and he ranks 16th in usage rate during that span. The Lakers’ offense has been atrocious since Lou Williams was traded, but a solid chunk of his usage diverted to Russell.
While taking a stroll on #NarrativeStreet, I found out that Dirk Nowitzki is 20 points shy of 30,000. If he reaches that milestone at home, he’ll likely meet or exceed salary-based expectations on DraftKings and FanDuel. To further enhance the narrative:
This is the T-shirt that are in the seats at American Airlines Center for tonight's game against the #Lakers. #Dirk #30K pic.twitter.com/8PdlDkGegl
— Dwain Price (@DwainPrice) March 7, 2017
At a shallow position like power forward, investing in Nowitzki may actually be the safest option. The Mavs don’t play again until Friday, and when Nowitzki has scored at least 18 actual points in a game the past month, he’s exceeded 32.0 DK points. This logic is resting on the foundation that Nowitzki goes for 20 points tonight rather than spread it out and wait until Friday, when the team will hand out identical shirts.
Seth Curry leads all guards on the slate with 100 percent Consistency on FD and DK. His salary has crept above those of Devin Booker and Oladipo, and the primary concern I hold is in regard to Curry’s minutes. With Wesley Matthews back in the fold, Nerlens Noel came off the bench the previous game. The matchup is solid enough to rely on Curry in cash games, as he’s scored at least 21 actual points in five of the six games since the All-Star break.
Washington Wizards at Phoenix Suns
Vegas: 228 over/under, Wizards -5
John Wall averages 36.7 minutes per game. In the two games Brandon Jennings has been available, Wall has played 38 and 37 minutes. His minutes have increased with coach Scott Brooks relying on an eight-man rotation, and the only concern heading into tonight’s game is that it is the first of a four-games-in-five-nights venture. When the Wizards have been road favorites, Wall has been up to the task:
Point guards have been extremely successful against the Suns this season.
The Thunder also populate the list, lending credence to Lillard on DK given his 95 percent Bargain Rating. Wall counters with a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FD, and both are quality pivots when fading Westbrook.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Ever since Bojan Bogdanovic and Jennings arrived in Washington, Markieff Morris’ production has suffered. Morris made his bones being the primary option with the second unit. That’s no longer his role. But if we’re extending our stay on #NarrativeStreet, Morris benefits with a revenge game: The first time he faced the Suns following a trade to the Wizards, he recorded 44.75 DK points. In the sequel, he was held to 15.75 DK points. He grabbed two total rebounds on Sunday as he played through a thigh contusion, and as the most expensive power forward on both sites, he’s easy to overlook.
Marcin Gortat’s minutes have decreased as Ian Mahinmi‘s have risen. Morris has also played at center intermittently, drastically reducing Gortat’s value. He’s failed to meet salary-based expectations in seven of the past eight games, and his salary has dropped to a season-low $5,200 on DK. Mahinmi fits the bill in terms of punt plays on DK at $3,000. He’s averaged 16.4 DK points in 17.8 minutes per game over the past five games while exceeding salary-based expectations each time.
Devin Booker v. Bradley Beal
Beal is on the correct side of this matchup. However, he costs $2,000 more than Booker on FD and $1,500 more than Booker on DK. Since the All-Star break, Booker’s playing time and usage has decreased as coach Earl Watson has given other players more minutes. Conversely, Beal is averaging 37.3 minutes per game and has seen a slight increase in usage over the same time frame. Booker carries more risk, which lends itself kindly to GPPs.
Alan Williams is the primary center on the team even though he comes off the bench. Over the past three games, he’s played at least 24 minutes while Alex Len has been limited to no more than 16 minutes. Williams is the second-most expensive center on DraftKings, reducing his relative value, but at $5,500 on FanDuel, he’ll likely be the chalk in all formats.
Tyler Ulis played a season-high 33 minutes on Sunday and registered over 30 DK points for the second straight game. He was bailed out by Booker’s foul trouble, which limited him to 27 minutes, and the presence of Isaiah Thomas, a player of similar stature. How much time Ulis gets tonight will impact the minutes for Eric Bledsoe and Booker, and it makes it difficult to rely on either of the starting guards.
T.J. Warren has been solid over the past 10 games and remains underpriced on FD:
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
