Snow has descended upon the New York metropolitan area, and the local games are scheduled early enough that any cancellations should be reported prior to lineup lock for the five-game main slate, which could transition into a three-game slate. It all begins at 7pm ET.
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas: 215 over/under, Cavs -7.5
These teams played last Thursday, and the Pistons won 106-101. While the Cavs were strictly a two-man barrage, the Pistons’ production was more evenly spread, and it helped that they were at home, where they are at least competent this season.
Since the All-Star break, the Cavs have ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 27th in rebound rate. Andre Drummond may not be the most expensive center on the slate, but after his performance last week (20 points, 16 rebounds, and four assists!!), investing a few GPP shares against a porous defense with a depleted frontcourt isn’t a bad idea despite his dreadful splits on the road, and especially against the Cavs the past two seasons.
Despite not practicing on Monday, Tobias Harris is expected to play and remain in the starting lineup. He’s adjusted well to the promotion, and he’s one of four Pistons projected starters with a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent on FanDuel. It’s a good sign that he played 41.3 minutes against the Cavs last week, as coach Stan Van Gundy utilized a nine-man rotation, and among the power forwards on FD priced below $7,000, he provides the highest projected ceiling and second-highest projected floor.
Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith are back on the table as cheap point guard options strictly due to the favorable matchup. Coach Van Gundy continues to give Jackson the first six minutes of each quarter and Smith the last six minutes of at least the first, second, and third quarters. If Jackson is playing well — and he has lately — he’ll stay on the court the final six minutes of the fourth quarter, giving him the higher floor since 24 minutes is the most Smith can expect to play. Jackson possesses a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FD, as well as the best Opponent Plus/Minus at his position.
LeBron James and Kyrie Irving lead the Cavs in Consistency (100 percent) and Upside over the past month, and they’ve shouldered the offensive burden in Kevin Love‘s absence. They remain the only two players worth heavily considering from the Cavs. Channing Frye hit five 3-pointers against the Pistons last week on seven attempts while grabbing nine rebounds. If you need to go deep-sea diving at power forward, Frye isn’t exactly cheap, but he outperformed the Pistons’ Jon Leuer, who costs the same on FD ($4,300) and $400 more on DraftKings.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
Irving has been a quintessential cash-game play over the past month (image below). During last Thursday’s win, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was unable to contain him, and when Ish Smith was assigned to Irving, he was bullied in the post repeatedly. Deron Williams‘ playing time has begun to increase over the past two games, yet Irving and James have remained above 35 minutes in both games of the back-to-back, and when James is on the court with Williams and no Irving, his assist rate leads the team at 45.2 percent. Perhaps they are slowly acclimating Williams into his new role, but he’s mainly been a spot-up shooter in the second unit.
Larry Sanders will spend time in the D-League, delaying his Cavs debut. Don’t expect to see him until closer to the playoffs.
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
Vegas: 210 over/under, Pacers -3
These teams have played three times this season. The second game was a blowout, and minutes and production in that game are non-representative of today’s three-point spread. The Pacers have struggled on the road this season, and the Knicks have struggled regardless of venue, but they have been more competitive at Madison Square Garden.
Here’s how the Pacers fared in the past meetings:
Al Jefferson has dominated the Knicks’ second unit, but he was a DNP-CD on Sunday. He won’t pop in the models, but at minimum salary on FD and DK, 15 minutes against the Knicks’ second unit may be all he requires. That, of course, depends on his standing in the rotation.
Myles Turner has a sprained finger on his shooting hand, and he expects to play tonight. If he’s ruled out, Jefferson will certainly gain traction as a value play. Jefferson has averaged a 29.1 percent usage rate against the Knicks this season, up from his yearly mark of 25.8 percent. Turner has been the most productive Pacer in the three games against the Knicks, and it’s not surprising considering centers facing the Knicks this season have been among the most solid plays:
Thaddeus Young is dealing with a left wrist injury that has curtailed his production and minutes recently. For that reason, I’m fine disregarding his success against the Knicks this year when constructing cash-game lineups. Over the past nine games, he’s averaged a -3.16 DK Plus/Minus. However, his salary is among the cheapest at power forward on DK, clearing the way for GPP shares.
In six games against the Knicks since last season, Paul George has averaged 37.88 DraftKings points and met salary-based expectations twice. He maxed out at 46.25 DraftKings points in the most recent game, and we still need to be aware of the Pacers’ negative road splits:
George: DFS Scouting Report
Conversely, here’s how the Knicks have performed in three games against the Pacers:
The Knicks have fully committed to the triangle offense, severely limiting Carmelo Anthony‘s production recently. Although he’s performed well against the Pacers this season and has been much more viable at home, we don’t know if he’ll stick within the triangle system or resort to isolation basketball. If debating between Anthony and George at small forward, the salaries are close enough that paying up for George’s floor is the more prudent move in cash games. Anthony wasn’t exactly stymied by George when both shared the court earlier this season — he converted 24-of-47 attempts — and should his recent decline in usage scare off the field, pivoting from George to Anthony in GPPs is one way to take advantage of a potential discrepancy in ownership.
Anthony: DFS Scouting Report
Kristaps Porzingis immediately stands out on FD at $6,600. His recent success has been buoyed by 11 combined blocks in the last two games, but even before that, he was very underpriced, meeting salary-based expectations in six of the past seven games. Even if he doesn’t smash value, he’s shown the ability to provide consistent production worthy of cash-game consideration.
Do the Knicks start Willy Hernangomez or Lance Thomas? They started the former for the past three games, but Hernangomez was limited to four second-half minutes during Sunday’s loss while Thomas started the third quarter. The Knicks could go with Thomas and stick him on George, which would cushion Thomas’ playing time if that’s his main assignment and coach Jeff Hornacek aligns their minutes. If Hernangomez starts, he’ll offer solid value on DK at $5,300, but considering he just allowed the Nets’ Brook Lopez to hit five 3-pointers in the first quarter of Sunday’s loss, Turner should have a field day with Hernangomez on the perimeter. That also increases Hernangomez’s downside, as we’ve already seen Hornacek bench him in favor of Thomas.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets
Vegas: 224.5 over/under, Thunder -6
I expected Russell Westbrook to cost at least $14,000 today. It didn’t happen, and since he recorded 30 points, 13 assists, and 10 rebounds in 34 minutes against the Nets in November, a repeat performance seems reasonable. He costs $13,400 on DK and FD, the highest salary on either site in our database (tying himself), and in nine games since the All-Star break, he’s averaged 73.0 DK points while failing to match salary-based expectations just once. Even when the Thunder were up 20 points on the Spurs late in the fourth quarter last Thursday, Westbrook was still on the court after Spurs coach Gregg Popovich pulled his starters. It’s fine to be worried about the potential of a blowout, but since the Nets are at least at home, they stand a good chance of keeping the margin tight enough for Westbrook to play solid minutes. And if Westbrook doesn’t play the fourth quarter, it’s either because the Nets are ahead by an insurmountable lead or Westbrook already recorded his triple-double in less than 30 minutes.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
The Thunder have performed poorly on the road this season, losing seven straight away from Chesapeake Energy Arena. Since the start of 2017, their 100.4 road offensive efficiency ranks 29th in the league, but the Nets are as welcoming as a defense can be. The Nets rank first in home pace over the same time frame, and their home offensive efficiency comes in at dead last with 98.8 points scored per 100 possessions.
Every position is firmly in the green when facing the Nets this season, and when the Thunder beat the Nets on November 18th, Victor Oladipo contributed 38.0 FD points in 36 minutes, and Westbrook’s final tally was 61.7 FD points. Steven Adams ranks second among all projected starters in DK Opponent Plus/Minus, and despite poor recent form, the plus matchup and projected ownership of only nine to 12 percent boosts his value in GPPs.
Sean Kilpatrick and Jeremy Lin are the only Nets to record at least 20.0 DK points over the past five games, and it appears Lin’s minute restriction has loosened. Brook Lopez recorded five blocks two games ago and hit six 3-pointers on Sunday while playing less than 30 minutes in each contest. He doesn’t receive a favorable matchup, and with Lin on the court since the All-Star break, Lopez has averaged 1.03 DK points per minute. The Nets aren’t exactly GPP-friendly because of the team-wide minute limitation, but Kilpatrick offers a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FD, and Lin’s salary is sub-$6,000 on both platforms.
Trevor Booker has met salary-based expectations in nine of the past 10 games on DK, and he’ll likely match up against former teammate Enes Kanter. He had some less-than-flattering things to say when Kanter returned to Utah two seasons ago when Booker was still with the Jazz. If you were able to follow all of that, there may be some #NarrativeStreet angles in play tonight.
Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas: 216 over/under, Pelicans -4
Since the All-Star break, the Pelicans have ranked last in offensive efficiency, scoring 98.5 points per 100 possessions. Conversely, the Blazers have ranked second over the same time frame, averaging 113.2 points per 100 possessions.
Here’s your daily reminder that FD has seemingly capped Maurice Harkless‘ salary, depreciating it to $4,500 tonight. He was benched during the final 16 minutes of Sunday’s win, but his recent production and minutes warrant additional consideration. His salary has been so cheap that he exceeded salary-based expectations in 12 straight prior to Sunday’s dud.
DeMarcus Cousins has averaged 4.5 fouls per game since joining the Pelicans, and Jusuf Nurkic ranks second on the list with 4.3 fouls per game since the All-Star break. Nurkic is the much cheaper option, and his production as a Trail Blazer cements him as more of an elite cash play, while Cousins’ drop in salary to a season-low $9,000 on FD creates an opportunity in GPPs.
Cousins’ inability to stay on the court and mesh with Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday has resulted in uneven production. With both Davis and Holiday on the court, Cousins has averaged 1.29 DK points per minute and a 28.9 percent usage rate; when both are off, Cousins still doesn’t measure up to his Kings stats, but he improves to 1.4 DK points per minute and a 34.7 percent usage rate.
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Jordan Crawford costs the minimum on FD, and over the past three games, he’s attempted the third-most field-goal attempts on the roster and tallied the second-most assists. He’s knocked starting shooting guard Hollis Thompson and backup point guard Tim Frazier out of the primary rotation, but coach Alvin Gentry continues to say that he plays the guys who are playing well — the hot-hand theory. Crawford has scored 19 actual points in two of his first three games with the Pelicans, and based on the lack of depth in the backcourt, Crawford will likely receive plenty of minutes. That could change if Thompson, Frazier, or E’Twaun Moore can knock down open shots, but the best way to treat this situation is as if Crawford is the primary sixth man who leeches touches from Cousins in the second unit.
Over the last two games, Frazier played the fourth quarter ahead of Holiday, and Dante Cunningham, who is officially questionable tonight, played the fourth quarter and overtime ahead of Cousins. The one staple has been Davis, and everyone else is at the mercy of Gentry’s rotations.
Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors
Vegas: 219 over/under, Warriors -16.5
These teams met on February 27th, and the Sixers kept the game competitive enough that Zaza Pachulia was the only Warrior starter to play fewer than 33 minutes. Jahlil Okafor committed seven turnovers and Stephen Curry missed all 11 of his 3-point attempts in the Warriors’ 11-point victory.
Robert Covington was upgraded from out to questionable after attending shootaround. If he can suit up, his past success against the Warriors requires attention:
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot may make his third straight start if Covington is ruled out. Over the previous two games, he’s recorded a cumulative 20.2 DK Plus/Minus while playing 33.2 and 27.5 minutes. He costs the minimum on DK, and at 0.64 DK points per minute since the All-Star break, he’d require 20 minutes to pay back his salary. Since much of this slate may be spent trying to find value around Westbrook, Luwawu-Cabarrot will likely be the first place to start on DK.
Dario Saric held his own against a full-squad Warriors team two weeks ago, missing out on a triple-double by three rebounds and three assists in 35 minutes. He proved the seven assists he tallied that night weren’t a fluke, as he recorded eight assists two games later.
Because Okafor was basically laughed off the court by Pachulia in the previous meeting, Richaun Holmes becomes a fine pivot at $700 cheaper than Okafor on FD. He’s met salary-based expectations in 10 straight games while averaging a +7.51 FD Plus/Minus in 22.9 minutes per game. Now that Justin Harper has been released, Holmes and Okafor will have one less player with which to share center minutes.
Stephen Curry‘s five-game sample against the Sixers the past three seasons isn’t great:
His worst DK Plus/Minus is a combination of low minutes or poor performances when playing normal minutes. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have been the beneficiaries of the Sixers matchup previously, and in the most recent tilt, Pachulia registered 29.25 DK points in 14.5 minutes. It’s easy to fade the Warriors when they are presently favored by 16.5 points. When they’ve been favored by at least 10 points this season, Thompson has carried the mantle with a +5.28 DK Plus/Minus on 75 percent Consistency. He’s close to properly priced now that Kevin Durant is sidelined, and coach Steve Kerr is set on giving Ian Clark more minutes.
I’ll add this wrinkle:
Join us in wishing @StephenCurry30 of the @warriors a HAPPY 29th BIRTHDAY #NBABDAY #DubNation pic.twitter.com/cZfNy7sLh5
— NBA (@NBA) March 14, 2017
Curry’s stats on his birthday aren’t impressive over the past two season, so I’m probably grasping at straws with this narrative.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
