Tuesday offers a small three-game slate that begins at 7pm ET.
Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets
Vegas: 219 over/under, Hornets -10.5
The pace in the previous three meetings between these teams is a good indication of how this game might flow:
• November 4th: 105.4 possessions
• December 26th: 101.8 possessions
• January 21st: 101.6 possessions
On the first leg of a back-to-back set, who will coach Kenny Atkinson rest? The game starts early enough that we can adjust if Brook Lopez sits. Caris LeVert and Quincy Acy have already been ruled out due to injuries.
Sean Kilpatrick leads the Nets with a +13.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus in three games against the Hornets this season. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson provided a +9.20 Plus/Minus and Bojan Bogdanovic added a +8.90 Plus/Minus. Combined, they’ve achieved 88.9 percent Consistency against the Hornets on FD. It will probably be difficult to construct a lineup without one of these three as a cheap shooting guard or small forward option.
Lopez could face the Hornets sans Cody Zeller. He could also be given the night off. Lopez is the most expensive option at center, but he’s also the most essential to his team on this three-game slate. His projected usage rate is seven points higher than the next closest center’s, and he’ll gain a bump if Zeller is ruled out, as the Hornets’ Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) drops to 108.1 when he’s on the bench.
The Nets remain first in pace and last in road defensive efficiency, allowing 112.5 points per 100 possessions away from the Barclays Center. The Hornets’ defensive rebound rate in three games against the Nets this season is an impressive 88.4 percent.
Zeller is officially questionable to play, and even if he’s cleared, his minutes could be monitored following six games on the sideline with a right quad contusion. Frank Kaminsky played well as the starting center during Saturday’s loss before fouling out. He didn’t provide sufficient tertiary stats, but he attempted the second-most shots (15) on the team in 31 minutes. If Zeller is unavailable, Kaminsky will start (per coach Steve Clifford), and based on the matchup he’ll qualify as a serviceable value play.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is significantly more productive when the Hornets are favored.
As is Nicolas Batum:
In nine games against the Nets since the start of the 2014-15 season, Kemba Walker has averaged 32.78 DK points and a -3.10 DK Plus/Minus. Alternatively, Batum has recorded at least 44.25 DK points in consecutive games against the Nets. Walker’s track record at home (+4.77 DK Plus/Minus on 70.6 percent Consistency) the last two seasons, combined with the Nets’ defense against opposing point guards (+5.22 FD Plus/Minus on 70.8 percent Consistency), necessitates cash-game shares, but his poor history against them is at least mildly concerning.
Here’s how all positions stack up against the Nets on DK this season (projected 18 minutes minimum):
Focusing on Walker, Batum, Kidd-Gilchrist, and even Marvin Williams in cash games may be the popular move. Williams is insanely cheap on DK at $4,800, and now that Kaminsky has temporarily relocated from backup power forward to starting center, Williams’ minutes should remain high unless Zeller is cleared to play.
Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets
Vegas: 223 over/under, Rockets -11.5
In their first game on January 6th, the Magic crossmatched and had Aaron Gordon guard James Harden, Serge Ibaka guard Trevor Ariza, and Evan Fournier stick Ryan Anderson. They also did a ton of switching on the perimeter to help contain 3-point shooters. The Rockets played it straight up at the beginning before eventually moving Harden onto Gordon, and Harden didn’t attempt a free throw until the 2:47 mark of the third quarter.
Gordon played 36 minutes in the first game, and he committed only one foul when defending Harden. He also recorded a career-high seven assists. He’s played at least 36 minutes seven times all season, and barring foul trouble, this game looks like one in which Gordon will receive plenty of run. His salary has been driven down sufficiently enough that double-dipping in cash games and GPPs for an inconsistent player may be the prudent path. He’s been so underwhelming lately that his salary has dropped to $4,600 on FD and DK.
Power forward can be a trouble spot on this three-game slate. Ibaka is the most expensive option on FD, but the top-seven players listed by salary cost between $5,200 and $5,900. Nikola Vucevic is the second-most expensive center on both platforms, and he’s a worthy pivot off Brook Lopez due to the similarities in their peripherals. Ibaka can be maddeningly inconsistent, but compared to the field, he has the highest ceiling and floor at a few extra hundred dollars.
Harden has averaged 63.1 DK points over the past month. That’s 23.6 points better than that of the next closest player in this slate. However, it pains me to reveal Harden’s historical average against the Magic (image below). He played at least 40 minutes in both games against them last season and topped out at 46.75 DK points. In their first meeting this season, Harden notched his second-worst DFS performance (38.25 DK points). He costs $13,300 on DraftKings, the highest salary for any player in our database, and $12,700 on FD, the highest salary for anyone not named Russell Westbrook this season. Rostering Harden on this small slate because he possesses the highest ceiling and floor in the player pool is justifiable. However, Harden has two duds on his ledger over the past four contests, and this slate is littered with landmines. Going Harden doesn’t preclude you from targeting the mid-tier guys you’re going to have to roster anyway, but he stands out so much on a three-game slate that he’ll likely be the popular play in GPPs.
Nene practiced Monday and should be available despite dealing with a sore groin. In the first meeting, coach Mike D’Antoni nearly matched all of Nene’s minutes with Vucevic’s. At that point, however, Clint Capela was still injured and Vucevic was coming off the bench for the Magic. The Rockets have had three days off since their last game, and with Vucevic shooting 1-of-11 with Nene on the court in the first meeting, I’m curious if D’Antoni will start with Nene over Capela.
If Capela starts, I like him as a cash play because of his home/road splits (image below). If Nene starts, he’ll offer substantial savings on DraftKings at $3,100. Both will have a favorable matchup, as centers facing the Magic have averaged a +4.47 FD Plus/Minus when projected to play at least 18 minutes.
Eric Gordon, Patrick Beverley, and Trevor Ariza are in the mix in cash games with the Rockets presently favored by at least 10 points. The chart below notes how the Rockets have performed under such circumstances on FD. Harden is priced slightly below his average salary-implied point total on FD, and Ryan Anderson gets dinged because the Rockets are at home and he has recorded 41 percent Consistency as a double-digit favorite. Beverley has provided 70 percent Consistency on DK at home this season, and in the first meeting against the Magic, he produced a team-best 38.0 DK points.
Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks
Vegas: 205.5 over/under, Blazers -1.5
The pace for the previous three meetings between these teams is a warning sign:
• November 4th: 98.1 possessions
• December 21st: 93.2 possessions
• February 3rd: 92.5 possessions
The pace will be an issue, but this is the only game that profiles as a competitive venture. It also claims the lowest Vegas total, which reduces its appeal to GPPs.
Damian Lillard is officially probable with a sprained right ankle. After Monday’s practice, he said to the media, “I’m pretty sure I’m playing.”
Lillard has been underwhelming this season, lacking a viable GPP ceiling outside of a few games against the Nuggets. C.J. McCollum is in the same boat, but he’s been more consistent, even when Lillard has been healthy. McCollum posted 47.75 DK points against the Mavs last Friday, and Lillard chimed in with 34.75 DK points in 38 minutes. Lillard and McCollum are two of the five most-expensive players on the main slate, and while the matchup will help to ensure their typical allotment of minutes, it will also drive down their possessions.
Deron Williams is officially doubtful to play for the third straight game, and he didn’t play in the past two contests. Yogi Ferrell produced 39.9 FD points against the Blazers last Friday in 39.1 minutes, but the Mavs were missing Devin Harris, which helped boost Ferrell’s playing time. The Blazers switched up their defensive scheme in the second half against Ferrell, who made a career-high nine 3-pointers. If Williams is ruled out, Ferrell instantly becomes viable at point guard. Ferrell has posted at least 25.5 DK points in five straight games, and his salary-implied point total resides at 27.65 DK points for tonight.
Wesley Matthews has enjoyed plenty of success against his former team, averaging a +7.81 DK Plus/Minus in six games. He’s going to guard Lillard and McCollum for stretches while beasting Allen Crabbe in the post. He’s not cheap compared to the rest of the field, but he’s solid against the Blazers.
Four of Dwight Powell’s highest-scoring DFS games have come on the second leg of a back-to-back set. In each case, Powell provided more than 30 DK points. Salah Mejri has averaged 26.15 DK points and a +12.10 Plus/Minus in five games against the Blazers since last season. Both are in consideration because of the small slate and because of Dirk Nowitzki.
Nowitzki has made 6-of-25 shots on zero days rest while recording a 20.8 percent usage rate in 21.4 minutes per contest, and here’s how he’s fared on the second leg of a back-to-back:
Neither Mejri nor Powell offers a floor worthy of cash-game consideration, but you can say that about a ton of players on this slate. If Nowitzki is given the night off for rest, Mejri and Powell immediately jump in the value play discussion.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
