Tuesday brings a six-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards
Vegas: 231 over/under, Warriors -6
As of yesterday, Steve Kerr plans not to rest any of the Warriors on either side of their back-to-back set. The only starter not to play at least 33 minutes last night was Zaza Pachulia, so we’ll see if Kerr sticks to his original edict.
The Warriors are single-digit Vegas favorites for the 18th time this season. Here’s the rundown on the previous instances (via our Trends tool):
A closer spread portends a solid base for minutes. None of the Warriors’ key cogs have provided much Upside in such situations, save for Andre Iguodala. Kevin Durant is priced below his average production on DraftKings, and he’s provided a Consistency worth chasing in cash situations. I’m worried about Iguodala on the second night of a back-to-back set, as this season he’s shot 5.5 percentage points below his average in that situation.
Stephen Curry missed all 11 3-point shots last night. The first time he missed all his 3-point attempts this season, he responded with 13 3-pointers in the subsequent game. The second time he was held without a 3-pointer, he followed up with a 3-of-9 performance from deep. Over the past 10 games, he’s made 33.5 percent of his 3-pointers, and it’s possible he’s just running cold.
John Wall is under the weather, and his status for the game remains unclear. If he doesn’t play, Bradley Beal will inherit a larger share of the offense, but the line may move to a double-digit spread quickly. Wall has typically been a no-brainer option at home, but when the Wizards are underdogs, he loses his appeal:
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Trey Burke or Tomas Satoransky will likely step into the starting lineup if Wall is unable to go, but Beal will handle a majority of the distribution.
Portland Trail Blazers at Detroit Pistons
Vegas: 214 over/under, Pistons -4.5
Shooting guards have collectively registered a -0.73 DK Plus/Minus when facing the Pistons this season, but that doesn’t include C.J. McCollum‘s 35-point, six-assist, three-rebound effort on January 8th because the game was originally postponed and not included in the following slate. Going into double-overtime, the game inflated McCollum’s stats with 50.6 FanDuel points. However, he had that production primarily against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Guaranteed prize pools shares are preferred.
Given the negative correlation they exhibit, Damian Lillard is likely a leverage play on McCollum, as Lillard will probably face the opposing point guard (rather than Caldwell-Pope) for most of the night.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
Jusuf Nurkic has played three games with the Blazers, and he showed his downside in the most recent contest, posting 16.8 FD points in 21 minutes while losing two teeth. It wasn’t a game in which coach Terry Stotts used a center all 48 minutes, but the Pistons have the size that could force Stotts’ hand. Nurkic picked up two fouls in the first six minutes and three fouls in the first half of the previous game, limiting his playing time. His salary has risen to the point where it’s difficult to roster him on DK, but his 95 percent Bargain Rating on FD at a difficult position is attractive.
Every Piston projected to play at least 20 minutes possesses a Bargain Rating of at least 68 percent on FD. Based on the Trail Blazers’ Defensive Rating (108.9), exposure is warranted. The Reggie Jackson/Ish Smith conundrum remains, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope offers a cheap GPP option. He’s so cheap that he currently has the second-highest projected ownership in the slate. (Pro users can see our ownership projections in the Player Models. Also, be sure to monitor ownership via our DFS Ownership Dashboard after lineups lock.)
Andre Drummond has averaged more points against the Blazers than any other team since the 2014-15 season. He’s the second-most expensive center on both platforms, and because paying up at center isn’t necessary he’ll likely go under-owned in GPPs.
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
Vegas: 222 over/under, Bulls -2.5
Kenneth Faried is out for the second straight contest, and Wilson Chandler will likely start at power forward. In the previous game sans Faried, coach Michael Malone utilized a nine-man rotation with Jamal Murray as the backup point guard.
Gary Harris remains a credible cash play on FD at $5,500. Over the past 10 games, he’s averaged a +5.83 FD Plus/Minus while exceeding salary-based expectations nine times. Nikola Jokic has struggled in the three games coming out of the All-Star break, and he’s complained about being tired after the non-stop workload over the summer. The recent slump has dropped his salary down to $8,900 on DK, and at that price tournament shares are acceptable.
The Bulls will be without Michael Carter-Williams and Paul Zipser. Jerian Grant will start at point guard with the best matchup at the position. However, Cameron Payne is expected to play more minutes than he did in his debut, and he’ll rival Grant for overall playing time. Additionally, Rajon Rondo averaged more minutes than those two combined over the past two games, and Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade are the primary facilitators, eating up usage and assist rates. Rondo nearly had a triple-double against the Nuggets in November, and both Butler and Wade flirted with one on Saturday: Butler was successful and Wade was not. Payne offers punt value on DK at $3,200, but Rondo will probably claim most of the point guard minutes in a three-man rotation.
When Nikola Mirotic has been on the court over the past two games, as opposed to Bobby Portis, Wade, Butler, and Rondo have all averaged 1.2 DraftKings points per minute. Butler stands out the most since he recorded 35 points, seven rebounds, and five assists in the first game against the Nuggets, a team ranked last in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions, and over the past 15 games that mark has worsened to 114.1. Butler costs $9,300 on DK and FD, and pairing Mirotic and him in GPPs is a solid maneuver because they are highly correlated, although Mirotic in cash games is quite tilting.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Wade has averaged a +7.93 DK Plus/Minus over the past 10 games, and when he gets at least one or two days between games he records a +4.32 DK Plus/Minus, making him a solid option at shooting guard.
Trying to figure out which reserves will outplay which starters is a futile exercise. If Mirotic is knocking down his shots, Portis will stay glued to bench. If coach Fred Hoiberg prefers Cristiano Felicio, Robin Lopez takes a hit in playing time. Now that Joffrey Lauvergne and Anthony Morrow have practiced with the team, they may end up playing tonight. All I can say is “Godspeed.”
Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas: 210 over/under, Grizzlies -9
Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight are out of the rotation since the All-Star break in what coach Earl Watson has called a fluid situation. For now, expect Tyler Ulis, Alan Williams, Derrick Jones Jr., Leandro Barbosa, and Jared Dudley to populate the second unit.
Alex Len has averaged his highest Plus/Minus against the Grizzlies. Two of his three highest-scoring DFS games occurred against the Grizzlies, but he’s been thoroughly outplayed by backup center Williams over the past two games. Punting on center is a viable strategy, and now that Williams costs more than Len on both sites pivoting to Len is quite the leverage play.
The Suns have been the second-worst road team on FD in terms of Plus/Minus and Consistency this season:
Eric Bledsoe has struggled against the Grizzlies this season. In fact, he’s recorded the worst overall Plus/Minus for any point guard projected to play at least 18 minutes:
There are a ton of negative indicators for the Suns. However, T.J. Warren has averaged a +6.66 FD Plus/Minus over the past 10 games, and he stands out significantly in the Phan Model. (Pro users can review the top players in our NBA Models.)
The Grizzlies have yet to be double-digit favorites this season, nor have they been implied to score 110.5 points. We’re in uncharted waters. In two previous games against the Suns, they scored 115 and 110 points. In those wins, they averaged a season-best 63.4 percent true shooting, which is roughly 10 points higher than the league average. Over the past 15 games, the Suns have ranked third-to-last in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions, improving the Grizzlies’ stock.
Mike Conley has been his best against the Suns since the 2014-15 season.
The concern for Conley, Marc Gasol, and Zach Randolph is minutes. They’ve handled the Suns fairly easily this season, and once it gets into garbage time Devin Booker and Bledsoe are more likely to be in the game than Conley or Gasol.
Point guards projected to play at least 18 minutes when facing the Suns have recorded a +4.91 FanDuel Plus/Minus, the second-highest mark overall. Conley has ventured into boom-or-bust territory lately, but the 65.5-point DK performance against the Suns on January 30 in 32.8 minutes stands out significantly.
There are also hints from coach David Fizdale that the starting lineup could change. Chandler Parsons may be the odd man out, but since James Ennis was handed a DNP-CD in the last game Troy Daniels and Vince Carter may be the ultimate beneficiaries. Daniels is presently the minimum on DK and FD.
Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas: 204.5 over/under, Jazz -2
Here’s how the Jazz do when they’re implied to score at least 100 points:
Rudy Gobert has recorded a double-double in seven straight games, and Gordon Hayward has recorded a +6.26 FD Plus/Minus over the past 10 games. Hayward loses appeal quickly since he’ll be guarded by Andre Roberson, and when the two shared the court in the previous two meetings Hayward converted 8-of-23 shots.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Targeting anyone from the Jazz in what projects to be a low-scoring affair isn’t cash-game optimal, but attempting to find leverage plays off Hayward could prove sharp in GPPs. Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors each cost no more than $5,000 on FD, and if Victor Oladipo is unable to suit up for the Thunder then Alex Abrines may be the primary assignment on Hood. However, in the 11 games in which the Jazz have been road favorites Hood has recorded a -3.29 DK Plus/Minus on 36.4 percent Consistency. Conversely, Gobert has notched a team-best +9.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus when the Jazz are road favorites, and he faces a team that gets blocked 5.5 times per game.
In two games against the Jazz, Russell Westbrook recorded 38.7 and 69 FD points. Both games were in Utah, and when Westbrook has played in Chesapeake Energy Arena this season he has averaged 61.42 FD points on 90.3 percent Consistency. Something has to give because it’s a terrible matchup but Westbrook has been extremely consistent at home. In the last game against the Jazz, Westbrook made one shot inside the paint and still scored 38 points. Overall, Westbrook has made 18-of-54 shots against the Jazz while averaging a season-high 53.0 percent usage rate. Westbrook clearly offers the highest ceiling and floor at the position, and on a night when his salary has been priced down to $12,100 on DK it’s easy to see why he’s projected to be the highest-owned player in GPPs. On the other hand, the Jazz rank third in Defensive Efficiency and pace, and if Westbrook’s jumper isn’t falling he becomes a liability.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas: 215 over/under, Hornets -4
Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams have been listed as questionable. That’s an improvement for Zeller, who’s missed the past six games. However, Williams is a new addition to the injury report. If neither is cleared to play, Jeremy Lamb or Christian Wood may be pressed into the starting lineup. Wood has emerged as the backup center to Frank Kaminsky, whose salary remains attractive on FD ($5,900) thanks to the +5.33 Opponent Plus/Minus. If Wood starts, he becomes more of a flyer than a value play. He’s not even priced on FD to consider rostering. Lamb played more minutes than Marco Belinelli in the previous game, but that wasn’t the case in the game prior. He’s still cheap on DK at $3,400, and based on the alternatives, he’s in the mix in all formats, especially for the savings.
Since Brandon Ingram and Tarik Black moved into the starting lineup on February 6, the Lakers have ranked third in pace, averaging 103.95 possessions per 48 minutes — a solid mark for rostering Hornets players. Their offense and defense have ranked in the bottom 10 over that span, and when Lou Williams is off the court their Offensive Efficiency deflates to 98.5 points per 100 possessions, which would rank last in that time frame — a concerning number.
The Hornets allow the most 3-point attempts per game. The last time the Lakers faced them, Nick Young shot 5-of-10 from deep and Jordan Clarkson converted 7-of-9 3-poiners. Young costs $3,900 on DK, and Clarkson costs $5,200 on DK and FD. A flyer on either can help at the shooting guard spot on DK.
A post-Williams roster has led to more stable minutes for Clarkson, Ingram, and D’Angelo Russell. Only Ingram has provided consistent production, but he’s been anything but consistent this season. Ivica Zubac could enter the starting lineup soon. Tarik Black as struggled with foul trouble of late, playing no more than 16 minutes in any of the past three games, which will open up playing time for Zubac, Larry Nance Jr., and Julius Randle.
EDIT: Coach Luke Walton will stick with the same starting lineup, but his bench rotation may change.
Luke keeping with same starters tonight, but suggested bench rotation will be different. Luke: "Tune in and see."
— Mark Medina (@MarkG_Medina) February 28, 2017
News Updates
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