Tuesday brings an eight-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets
This game has the highest Vegas total at 216 points, and both of these teams own bottom-seven defenses.
There are quite a few plays in this game, but the one everyone is excited about is Nikola Jokic versus DeMarcus Cousins. Jokic has crushed value lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games and averaging a +7.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the last nine. He’s done this with relatively volatile minute loads:
Part of that is on him, though: He’s averaging a high 4.8 fouls per 36 minutes. And that’s a shame, because when he’s on the floor, he’s dynamic — even against an elite Warriors defense . . .
He’s certainly in play on both sites, but he has underappreciated risk: He could draw the Boogie defensive assignment at some point.
Cousins is an elite option, especially at $11,200 on FD, where he has 11 Pro Trends, an 86 percent Bargain Rating, and a +2.31 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s set to start opposite the Nuggets’ Wilson Chandler, who has essentially no chance of stopping Boogie in the post:
The Denver wing trio of Chandler, Gary Harris, and Will Barton all collectively hit value last game, which hasn’t been the norm so far this season (per our NBA correlations study):
It’s probably wise to pick your poison here, and Chandler currently leads the group with a +3.55 Projected Plus/Minus and 38.8-point projected ceiling.
Danilo Gallinari will likely be popular: He posted 39.5 DK points against the Warriors last game and has averaged a +6.44 Plus/Minus over his last nine games. That said, he’ll start opposite Rudy Gay, who has been surprisingly solid as a defender this year despite his reputation: Gay ranks ninth among all SFs in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (+1.72) this season, ahead of guys like LeBron James and Jae Crowder. There’s probably some noise in the early-season sample, but the point remains that it’s not an easy matchup to target. Still, Gallo is fine at his low $5,900 price point for guaranteed prize pools.
Finally, Denver has been the worst team in the league versus opposing PGs this season, and one of Ty Lawson or Darren Collison could be intriguing in tournaments depending on afternoon news. Lawson has been getting more minutes ahead of Collison, but he’s currently questionable to play with a sinus fracture. If he’s in, he’s the guy for GPPs. If he’s out, Collison is a nice target at $4,100 FD with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and a +5.57 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Point Guard
Stud
If you want to pay up for PG today, be aware that you’re paying up for guys with awful fantasy matchups:
Most of these negative values have a lot to do with pace: John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, and Eric Bledsoe all face teams that average over five possessions per game less than their teams. Kyle Lowry has the best Opponent Plus/Minus of the top four guys, and that’s despite facing perhaps the best actual defense in the Spurs, who rank fourth and are allowing a stingy 101.6 points per 100 possessions. Lowry has been incredible lately . . .
. . . and he’s coming off a game in which he dropped 58.3 FD points and 41 real points against the Lakers. He could have a tough game if he draws more of Danny Green and if Kawhi Leonard slides down onto DeMar DeRozan, but if the Spurs don’t trust Tony Parker on a bigger wing like DeMarre Carroll and choose to keep him at PG, Lowry could eat. Parker at this stage of his career has struggled to defend PGs in the pick-and-roll:
Value
T.J. McConnell is in line for another start for the injured Sergio Rodriguez. According to our NBA On/Off tool, McConnell has averaged 36.6 minutes, 35.1 DK points, and a +21.8 Plus/Minus in the two games sans Rodriguez.
He’s used 16.5 percent of the 76ers’ possessions, averaged an impressive 66.3 true-shooting rate, and assisted 34.0 percent of Philly’s baskets in those games. At $4,300 DK and $4,600 FD against a Timberwolves team that ranks 26th defensively in the league, McConnell is an easy (though chalky) punt play.
Leverage Play
The PG position is oddly tough today: All of the top options have negative matchups and mid-tier guys with good matchups like Ricky Rubio, Goran Dragic, and Mike Conley have minute concerns. In that case, let’s look at how the ‘Studs’ do in terms of beating tough matchups. Wall does very well:
In 19 games this season with FD Opp Plus/Minus values no higher than zero, Wall has exceeded salary-based expectations in 73.7 percent of contests, averaging 46.08 FD points and a +6.84 Plus/Minus. The individual matchup versus Deron Williams isn’t scary — DWill has a poor -1.0 DRPM this year — and if Wall can be efficient offensively to counteract the pace concerns he could have a solid fantasy day.
Shooting Guard
Stud
And here we are again:
Of the top guys, Zach LaVine has a very safe playing time floor: He’s gotten at least 30 minutes in each of his last 15 games. He has averaged a +2.39 FD Plus/Minus during his last nine, and he has the best matchup of the top four, facing a 76ers team that ranks 21st defensively and has allowed 106.2 points per 100 possessions on the season. He struggled in an easy matchup last game, scoring only 18.1 FD points in 35.7 minutes against the 29th-ranked Portland defense, but he’s also only five games removed from posting a 50-burger at home versus the Kings. He’s a fine option at $6,500 on FD, where he has a +3.0 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
There isn’t a ‘safe’ play at SG today, so let’s look for cheap guys with high upside. Rodney Hood fits that bill: He’s hit salary-based expectations in each of his last three games after struggling at the end of December with a couple non-basketball related illnesses. He’s currently projected to play 30.3 minutes, and the Jazz are currently 5.5-point dogs at Boston. The Celtics could be without Marcus Smart, who is dealing with a non-basketball related illness of his own, which means that Hood will have to deal with only the defense of Avery Bradley. Gordon Hayward is usually the Jazz player to own without George Hill, who has already been ruled out tonight, but he’s struggled in his last three games opposite his college coach:
A couple of factors need to break right for Hood to have a huge DFS game, but that’s the case for pretty much any SG in the pool today.
Leverage Play
Devin Booker has been better lately after a disappointing start to his sophomore campaign: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and averaged a +5.80 Plus/Minus during that time. He has a mediocre matchup versus the Heat, who rank 12th defensively and have allowed 104.0 points per 100 possessions, but he’s managed to exceed value recently despite awful matchups over his last four versus the Clippers, Jazz, Raptors, and Spurs — three of which were on the road. He’s back at home tonight and has an individual matchup versus Josh Richardson that isn’t completely disastrous for Booker’s game:
He’s currently the No. 2 SG in the Phan Model for FD, where his 6,000 salary comes with a +3.30 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Stud
I’m sensing a trend:
Gordon Hayward has the #NarrativeStreet game against his former college coach in Brad Stevens — and, as shown above, his splits aren’t amazing against the Celtics lately — but he also has positive data points with Hill out of the lineup. Per the On/Off tool, Hayward leads the Jazz with an average of 37.2 DK points and a +1.2 Plus/Minus in the 21 games sans Hill.
Those numbers are actually a bit of a dip from where Hayward has been with Hill, but Hayward in an extreme pace-up game is still worth rostering given the SF player pool. He’s a better value on FD, where his $8,000 salary comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 75 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Luol Deng has struggled over his last two games, scoring 8.6 and 8.9 FD points in 30.1 and 33.7 minutes after scoring at least 20 FD points in his prior 11 games. Even with those two recent duds, however, he has a solid +4.76 Plus/Minus over his last nine:
The Lakers are currently three-point home favorites against the Grizzlies, who own the league’s top-ranked defense, allowing 100.5 points per 100 possessions on the season. That said, the SF spot has been one of the best positions with which to target Memphis, as Chandler Parsons is still working his way back from injury and has allowed above-average shooting marks to opposing players.
Deng currently leads all SFs on FD with a +4.98 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
Of the top-priced options, Andrew Wiggins currently leads the group with a +1.64 Opponent Plus/Minus versus Philadelphia, who has allowed a poor 106.2 points per 100 possessions. Wiggins’ matchup against Robert Covington isn’t ideal — Bob owns the seventh-highest DRPM (+1.90) among SFs this season — but his one-on-one defense gives a bit more room for a nice game:
Like the other Wolves starters, Wiggins has minutes safety: He’s been above 36 in each of his last three games and is currently projected for 37.7 minutes. He’s the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where he owns a +4.05 Projected Plus/Minus and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Power Forward
Stud
I swear this isn’t a joke:
Jokic is the best option of this group, but let’s discuss LaMarcus Aldridge since we discussed Jokic above. Aldridge has been sneaky-good lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games and averaging a robust +7.18 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine. He put up 49.6 FD points last game against the Hawks and has now gone for 43-plus FD points in four of his last five outings. He’s the most expensive option on the board today, but he’s a nice tournament pivot up from Jokic, who will likely carry high ownership on both sites. The Spurs are slate-high 5.5-point favorites implied for 106.5 points against the Raptors, who have been below average defensively this year, allowing 104.8 points per 100 possessions.
Value
If you remove Jon Leuer‘s last game, in which he scored only 9.1 FD points in 27.9 minutes versus the Heat, he’s been excellent lately:
He had exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last eight games prior to his most recent one, and he’s still averaging a +4.36 Plus/Minus over the sample. The Pistons are currently five-point favorites implied to score 104.75 points against the Pacers, who have allowed a mediocre 104.6 points per 100 possessions on the season. Paul George is an elite defender, but the Pacers’ other two frontcourt spots are much weaker with Myles Turner and especially Thaddeus Young, who has allowed opponents to score 2.7 DK points over expectations in the past year.
Leverage Play
Let’s get risky for a moment. Zach Randolph is projected to play only 22.5 minutes tonight, but he’ll do so against a Lakers team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing an embarrassing 110.2 points per 100 possessions. ZBo has been surprisingly excellent lately, averaging a +3.30 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine contests and exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last five. He leads all PFs with a +3.02 Opponent Plus/Minus, and in the second unit he’ll likely face Thomas Robinson, who ranks 83rd out of 94 eligible PFs with a -0.58 DRPM. ZBo is obviously risky with his low minute projection, but he’s averaging an impressive 1.12 fantasy points per minute over the past year and could put up a stellar game in only 25 minutes in this dream matchup.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid will remain on his 28-minute restriction for now, although that has not hurt his DFS value. He put up 42.7 FD points last game in 28.5 minutes against the Nuggets and has averaged a +4.04 Plus/Minus over his last nine outings. His matchup with Karl-Anthony Towns is certainly exciting, and Embiid definitely has the talent to hold his own. Minnesota has been disappointing defensively this season: The Wolves currently rank 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing a poor 108.0 points per 100 possessions. Gorgui Dieng, who will actually match up mostly with Embiid, has shown that he’s a great shot-blocker but not a particularly great one-on-one or team defender:
Dieng is allowing an awful 63.9 percent shooting rate in the restricted area, which is bad news against a future Hall-of-Famer like Embiid.
Value
Hassan Whiteside did not travel with the team to Phoenix, which means that Willie Reed will get the start for Miami and become the uber-chalk tonight. He’s only $3,900 DK and $3,500 FD, and he gets a Phoenix team that plays at the league’s second-fastest pace (103.2 possessions per game) and owns a bottom-10 defense, allowing 107.4 points per 100 possessions. This is an extreme pace-up game for the Heat — the Suns average 6.3 more possessions — which means that Reed will have ample opportunity to hit value. Tyson Chandler has been atrocious defensively this year . . .
. . . and Reed posted an impressive 112.8 Offensive Rating in his first game without Whiteside. He’s easily the No. 1 option currently in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a position-high +6.67 Projected Plus/Minus and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Andre Drummond posted 55.5 DK points in 36.1 minutes last game versus the Heat, and he’ll face an Indiana team that has given up a whopping 4.85 points over salary-based expectations to starting centers this season. Drummond is projected for only 13-16 percent ownership on DK, largely because Reed is projected to be a chalky value play. The Pistons are currently five-point favorites implied for 104.75 points against the Pistons, and Drummond has been slightly better since the return of pick-and-roll partner Reggie Jackson: He’s averaged a +0.8 DK Plus/Minus differential in those contests. Drummond is currently the No. 1 center in the Phan Model for DK, where his reasonable $7,300 salary comes with a +2.35 Projected Plus/Minus and 10 Pro Trends.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
