I’m not saying you should completely ignore this slate. I am offering necessary caution on a night in which two of the slowest-paced teams face off against two of the fastest. Also, good luck finding a power forward on either site. You might as well hope for a trade that happens early enough for the players to pass their physicals and be on the court in time for tip-off. We’re looking at four games and a handful of injuries tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics
Vegas: 197 over/under, Celtics -7
These two teams met last week, and Isaiah Thomas scored a career-high 44 points in the Celtics’ overtime win. The Grizzlies looked disjointed in last night’s loss, ceding 68 points in the first half to the offensively-inept Magic, who were missing Evan Fournier. Although the Grizzlies are ranked 28th in pace and first in defensive efficiency, their road defense increases to 104.3 points allowed per 100 possessions — the 11th-best mark in the league.
Marc Gasol leads all players in average road Plus/Minus (minimum six road games) with a +8.35 mark on DraftKings, and he’s hit value 75 percent of the time at 3.6 percent average GPP ownership. If you’re going to target a Grizzly — which is preferred in tournaments as a contrarian move given their slate-low Vegas implied point total of 96.75 points — Gasol is the leading candidate. The center position runs at least three deep on both sites, which suppresses Gasol’s projected ownership.
When you find the hot hand, you keep going back until it cools down. That’s the gamble with Thomas tonight. He’s dipped below $8,000 on FanDuel for the first time in December, and his recent stretch will likely inflate his ownership. The Celtics overall are fascinating because, the last time they faced the Grizzlies, they were held to 31 points in the first half. I don’t expect a dud of those proportions, but their final point total of 112 could be the aberration here. Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley have each provided 93 percent Consistency on both sites over the past month, and they’ll remain plays in cash games at their positions. Shooting guards projected to play at least 18 minutes when facing the Grizzlies have averaged a +3.85 Plus/Minus on 60.7 percent Consistency — the sixth-highest mark in the league.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat
Vegas: 205 over/under, Thunder -2
There have been 10 instances of a player priced at $13,000 on FanDuel. Here are the results:
Russell Westbrook has been the only player to meet the criteria, and he’s priced up to $13,000 again today. Despite the salary hike, Westbrook has solidified himself in the tournament conversation in perpetuity. He leads all players with an average of 50.97 FanDuel points on 80.6 Consistency this season, and over the past five games with Anthony Morrow in the starting lineup, he hasn’t posted less than 60 FanDuel points while making 48.4 percent of his field goals and 40 percent of his 3-pointers. He fits any game: cash games, GPPs, games of skill, games of chance, Game Boys, etc.
Enes Kanter is the only available power forward to post at least 29 FanDuel points in the past three games, and he’s been the focal point of the second unit with Victor Oladipo sidelined. Over the past three games, he’s second on the team with a 23.8 percent usage rate and third with 29.0 minutes per game. As long as the minutes remain consistent (which is hopeful thinking against the Heat’s small frontcourt), Kanter will offer some semblance of stability at power forward. His center-only eligibility on DraftKings and 90 percent Bargain Rating makes it easier to deploy him in cash games, as he and Steven Adams rank second and third among centers in Opponent Plus/Minus.
The Heat offer more questions than solutions. Goran Dragic, Wayne Ellington, and Rodney McGruder are questionable to play. The latter two have missed the past three games and will warm up with the intent to play. During their absence, Justise Winslow, Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson, and Dragic have averaged at least 36.9 minutes per game. Additional bodies on the wing will curtail the playing time of Winslow and Richardson, and the latter may fall out of the starting lineup to make way for Ellington’s floor-spacing.
If you’re going to play a position against the Thunder, it’s point guard. Tyler Johnson has averaged 32.8 minutes per game over the past four games, and he could be in line for even more run if Dragic is unable to play or suffers a setback during the game. Point guards projected to play at least 18 minutes when facing the Thunder have averaged a +5.15 DraftKings Plus/Minus — the second-highest mark this season. Dragic will be limited to tournaments as he deals with back spasms, but Johnson will work in all formats if Dragic is ruled out prior to lock.
Whiteside is the elite GPP play at center in today’s slate. His recent production has vacillated, but he hasn’t posted less than 40 DraftKings points over the past eight games. You’ll read later why I’d prefer to fade him, but take this excerpt from the South Florida Sun Sentinel for now:
“I’ve been banged up some games. Some of my worse games I’ve been more hurt than others. I think that’s the one thing fans don’t understand, that guys are playing through injuries. It’s been a lot of days I haven’t been feeling well. I tried to go out there and outdo myself last game, which is not easy.”
He’s injured, yet he’s been consistently productive. I have no qualms relying on him as my center in tournaments, but he does lead the position in projected ownership. The downside of fading him is if Dragic is ruled out and the offense runs completely through him. But when Dragic has been off the floor this year, the Heat’s pace has dropped to 93.4, which is about three possessions below their average.
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks
Vegas: 210.5 over/under, Rockets -6.5
The Rockets and Mavericks have played three times this season. The number of possessions in those games were as follows:
• October 28th: 96.10
• October 30th: 95.52
• December 10th: 88.42
James Harden averaged 46.03 FanDuel points in those three games, with his best performance coming in the most recent game — a 22-point win in which he played 40 minutes and mustered 52.8 FanDuel points. He hasn’t exceeded 60 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he claims the second-worst Opponent Plus/Minus for projected starters on the slate. I have to hit Harden with the high-top fade in cash games. His outlook in tournaments isn’t much more appealing, but a Harden/Westbrook pairing provides a lot of upside and a unique roster build, as they are the only players priced above $9,000 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel.
The Rockets lead all teams with a Vegas implied total of 108.75 — their 12th-lowest total this season. They are also playing on the second night of a back-to-back, which has been the time to target them: The Rockets easily lead all teams with a +5.53 FanDuel Plus/Minus. The concern for Houston is the potential absence of Patrick Beverley, who exited Monday’s win in the second half because of a thigh injury. If Beverley doesn’t play, Eric Gordon or Corey Brewer may slide into the starting lineup, and Harden would likely be forced to play additional minutes as the primary ball-handler.
Since joining the starting lineup, Montrezl Harrell has averaged 25.43 FanDuel points in 26.2 minutes per game. He’ll be the chalk center option on FanDuel with Nene’s minutes likely to be limited, and the latter’s restriction will allow Ryan Anderson to sneak in a few minutes as the third-string center. Harrell serves an additional purpose: He’s power forward-eligible on DraftKings on a night when power forward is a position you want to avoid. His price has escalated to a season-high $4,800, which could come in handy if Nene is ruled out on the second night of a back-to-back set.
Coach Rick Carlisle said Andrew Bogut could return later this week, and the Australian center has been upgraded to questionable to play in advance of tonight’s contest. Dirk Nowitzki’s status won’t be updated until later, which could shift Salah Mejri back into the starting lineup. However, he was played off the court in the last meeting with the Rockets, and his recent production has been uninspiring. Dwight Powell, who will probably come off the bench, flashed 20-point DFS production against the Mavericks earlier this month. Based on the thin power forward position, Powell will enter the discussion as a punt play should Bogut and Nowitzki get ruled out.
Deron Williams has mastered the cash-game profile: He’s averaged 32.71 DraftKings points on 92.9 percent Consistency on DraftKings in 14 December games. He hasn’t dipped below 22 DraftKings points over that stretch, and he’s presently implied to score 25.65 DraftKings points. However, his lowest point total occurred against the Rockets when Beverley was healthy. Williams should be relied upon only if the aforementioned Beverley is ruled out.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas: 204 over/under, Jazz -5
The Jazz and Lakers have played on two occasions this season, and Quin Snyder did not coach the second contest for the Jazz because of an illness.
Shelvin Mack is going to be the value play for point guards on FanDuel. He’s projected to start with George Hill and Dante Exum sidelined, and over the past eight games, he’s averaged 21.33 FanDuel points in 30.3 minutes per game. Mack leads all point guards in Opponent Plus/Minus, and the Lakers rank fourth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency.
Rodney Hood has battled an illness over the past week, and his recent production suffered because of it. He was limited to 10 minutes on December 20th because of gastric distress and 13 minutes on December 23rd, and his salary has depreciated because of the dire performances. He’ll be the value play at shooting guard on FanDuel now that he’s overcome the illness, and the Jazz have had three days between games.
Rudy Gobert’s salary has risen to season-highs on both platforms, and it’s warranted considering his position-leading Opponent Plus/Minus and 100 percent Consistency over the past month. Projected GPP ownership for Whiteside is higher than Gobert’s on both sites, but when Whiteside’s Opponent Plus/Minus has been no greater than zero, he’s produced a -1.55 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 53.8 percent Consistency. His two highest-scoring games against teams with a negative Opponent Plus/Minus came against the Hawks when Dwight Howard left the game early because of a thigh injury and against the Celtics without Al Horford.
This may be a spot to pivot off Whiteside, save a little green, and leverage Gobert in tournaments. His game log shows at least 10 rebounds in each of the last 15 games, and his highest-scoring DFS game over that time came at the expense of the Lakers. Gobert doesn’t possess the ceiling of Whiteside, but his matchup is much more favorable.
The Jazz are ranked 29th in pace and fourth in defensive efficiency — the inverse of their counterparts. They’ve also had three days between games. Loading up on Lakers will probably be the fastest trip to the bottom of the standings, but it’s also the least likely strategy to be employed. On a four-game slate, embracing uncertainty could be a profitable move.
The power forward position is so dreary that Julius Randle actually makes sense despite the obvious warning signs. He’s averaged a career-low 19 DraftKings points per game in six career games against the Jazz, all of which have occurred in 2016. In the two previous games against the Jazz this season, he averaged 24.38 DraftKings points, roughly two points below today’s implied point total. Because of his projected chalkiness — he leads all power forwards with projected ownership of at least 41 percent on FanDuel — fading him is the easiest way to differentiate your lineup. The problem is finding a serviceable alternative.
Good luck!
News Updates
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