Tuesday brings an 11-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
The Nuggets continue to be the most generous team to opposing PGs, as shown by Chris Paul‘s massive +5.27 Opponent Plus/Minus. CP3 has struggled lately, missing salary-based expectations in each of his last three games and scoring fewer than 37 FanDuel points in each contest. That said, he’s back home from his east coast road trip and will start opposite Emmanuel Mudiay, who owns an awful -1.64 Defensive Real Plus/Minus — the 74th-highest mark among 85 qualified PGs. Paul is currently the No. 1 DraftKings and FD PG in the Phan Model, sporting high Projected Plus/Minus values of +6.25 and +5.99. He’s playable in all contest formats and is projected for a chalky 17-20 percent ownership on FD.
Value
Goran Dragic has crushed value recently, scoring over 42 DK points in four of his last five games. He’s using a ton of possessions for the Heat — he had 31 points, 21 shots, seven assists, and five turnovers last game against the Celtics — and he’s projected for a 31.19 usage rate, which is higher than the marks of guys like Paul, Stephen Curry, and Kemba Walker. Dragic is the Heat offense right now and a value at $7,500 FD even in a mediocre matchup versus the Magic: He owns a position-high +6.91 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s currently the No. 3 PG in the Phan Model for FD, where he has 13 Pro Trends and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
The Charlotte Hornets are currently implied by Vegas for 111.25 points — the third-highest mark in the slate — yet Kemba Walker is projected for only five to eight percent ownership on FD. He’s $500 more than Dragic, but he has an elite matchup against the Lakers, who currently own the league’s second-worst defense on the season, allowing a poor 109.6 points per 100 possessions. Kemba has been a bit up-and-down over the past month, but he’s scored 34-plus FD points in back-to-back games, and he’s projected for 33.5 minutes and a 29.57 usage rate against a truly awful defensive team. It’s difficult to ignore Kyle Lowry against the Brooklyn Nets, but he should be chalky along with CP3 and Dragic. Kemba should be lower-owned in an equally juicy matchup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
We won’t completely ignore the Raptors and their slate-high 119.0-point implied team total. DeMar DeRozan has posted back-to-back 42-plus FD outings against the Magic and the Hawks, and he now faces the third-worst defensive unit in the league. The Nets have allowed a miserable 109.1 points per 100 possessions on the season. DeRozan has a position-high +3.32 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD, where his reasonable $8,600 salary comes with a +3.98 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 68 percent Bargain Rating. We’re currently projecting him for a massive 37.57 usage rate — the second-highest mark in the entire slate — but that’s actually lower than his 38.7 percent rate over the last two games. He has massive upside for guaranteed prize pools.
Value
Gary Harris has a rough -2.35 FD Opponent Plus/Minus against the Clippers, who boast the league’s fifth-best defense this season and have allowed only 101.9 points per 100 possessions. That said, Harris is too cheap on FD, where his $4,800 salary comes with a +6.17 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in all three games since returning to the lineup, scoring 33.4, 24.6, and 37.8 FD points in those outings. He needs only 19.9 FD points to hit value at that salary, and he’s currently projected for 31.1 minutes and a 17.93 usage rate. There’s some risk here, but Harris’ salary is just too low to ignore in cash games.
Leverage Play
Speaking of brutal matchups: James Harden faces Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs tonight. Harden’s been very poor over the last three seasons versus the Spurs:
In the 10 games he’s faced them, he’s averaged a devastating -9.51 DK Plus/Minus, hitting salary-based expectations in only two games. That said, those two games were played this season: He put up 60.3 and 64.5 DK points in successive games a month ago. With this being Harden’s first year in head coach Mike D’Antoni’s system, those two games are likely most representative of what we should expect tonight. Harden is the most-expensive option tonight at $11,000 FD, but he’s still the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model and owns a position-high +6.65 Projected Plus/Minus.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is easily the highest-rated SF in the Phan Model for DK, where his $10,400 salary comes with a position-high +9.85 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a +2.12 Opponent Plus/Minus. (He’s also the No. 1 in the FD Model, but it’s close with Kawhi Leonard.) Kevin Love has been ruled out for the Cavs, and LeBron takes over essentially all play-making duties for the Cavs when Love is out: LeBron’s usage rate increases by a whopping 6.0 percent (per our NBA News feed). He’s scored at least 45 DK points in each of his last seven games and is projected for 38.7 minutes and a high 33.51 usage rate against the Bucks. He will likely slide up to PF with Love out, which means he should see a bit more of Jabari Parker rather than an entire game’s worth of Giannis Antetokounmpo. LeBron owns the position’s highest projected ceiling at 73.2 DK points.
Value
Kawhi Leonard really struggled last game against the Pelicans, scoring only 19.4 FD points in 24.5 minutes of action. However, he hadn’t scored fewer than 39 FD points in his five previous games and is currently projected right at that mark tonight against the Rockets. Houston averages 4.3 more possessions per game than the Spurs, and they also own a mediocre 104.1 defensive rating. Kawhi has averaged 1.16 FD points per minute over the last year — the third-best mark among SFs — and is currently projected to play 33.1 minutes and use possessions at a 28.72 percent rate tonight. He’s currently the No. 2 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $8,400 salary comes with a +4.36 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Paul George has been hot lately, scoring at least 20 real points in eight of his last nine games and averaging a +3.06 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s currently the No. 4 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $8,100 salary comes with a +2.98 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating. What makes him especially intriguing is that he’s projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership compared to LeBron’s 31-35 percent. James is the better cash-game option with Love out, but George boasts the superior matchup against the Knicks, who rank 25th defensively on the season and have allowed 108.1 points per 100 possessions. George has the lowest projected ownership among the four $8,000-plus studs.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has been awful recently, scoring 19.3 and 28.5 FD points in his two most recent games against the Spurs and Rockets. However, don’t think recency bias will diminish his ownership: He’s currently projected for massive 36-40 percent ownership on FD in a matchup versus the 7-20 Philadelphia 76ers. Davis has used very few possessions lately, but he’s projected for 36.2 minutes and a high 31.91 usage rate tonight. This is an obvious bounceback spot for Brow. Still, $11,500 FD is a high price to pay in cash games and he’s projected to outperform that salary by only 1.95 points. That said, his 68.1-point projected FD ceiling is 18.1 points higher than that of any other PF. He’s not a lock for cash games, but he should definitely be popular in tournaments.
Value
You know what this picture means?
It means that the Nuggets have finally realized something painfully obvious: Nikola Jokic is their best player. FanDuel hasn’t caught up to this fact in its pricing: After posting 55.5 points thanks to 27 real points, 15 rebounds, and nine assists last game against the Mavericks, Jokic’s price increased by . . . $0. He’s still $5,900 and has a position-high +8.04 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. The matchup against the Clippers is a poor one, but so was the matchup last game versus the Mavs. Given his 28.0 projected minutes and a $5,900 salary, his matchup probably doesn’t matter much anyway. He’s a chalky cash-game play yet again.
Leverage Play
Among PFs projected for at least 20 minutes, Kristaps Porzingis owns the position’s highest Opponent Plus/Minus at +3.64 on FD. He faces an Indiana team that ranks a mediocre 16th defensively, allowing 104.5 points per 100 possessions. Porzingis is coming off of a 38.9-point FD outing against the Nuggets, and he dropped 50-plus points in back-to-back games just a couple games prior to that. He’s projected for 13-16 percent ownership, which is much lower than our projections for Davis and Jokic. He’s currently the No. 2 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $7,800 salary comes with a +3.80 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating.
Center
Stud
Portland owns the worst defensive rating in the NBA, allowing an embarrassing 110.3 points per 100 possessions. And now the Trail Blazers have to deal with DeMarcus Cousins, who is projected for 35.6 minutes and a slate-high 37.73 usage rate. Boogie has missed salary-based expectations in each of his last two games, but he’s shown 60-point upside in several games over his last 15. Per our NBA Matchups tool, Boogie will start opposite Noah Vonleh, who is substantially smaller and has allowed opposing players to score 4.2 points above expectations over the past year. Cousins has a massive +4.98 Opponent Plus/Minus and should eat regardless of whether Rudy Gay and Omri Casspi play.
Value
Joel Embiid put up 53.5 FD points last game against the Nets and remains a value on FD, where his $7,200 salary comes with a +3.33 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. Center is tough tonight because so many players have elite matchups, and Embiid is no exception: He owns a +4.73 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Pelicans, who have allowed a below-average 104.6 points per 100 possessions this season. They rank third-worst in defensive rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 47.6 percent of the available boards. Embiid is a solid bet for a double-double tonight and could see slightly reduced ownership because of the other, cheaper value plays in the slate.
Leverage Play
Myles Turner has been impressive lately:
Over his last nine games, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven and averaged a +5.23 FD Plus/Minus. He has an elite +4.63 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Knicks, who have allowed 108.1 points per 100 possessions on the year. Turner is currently the No. 3 center in the Phan Model for FD, where his $6,300 salary comes with a +3.68 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
