Today brings a six-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard is easily the most expensive PG in the slate — he’s $1,700 more than any other PG on DraftKings and $2,500 more on FanDuel — and he’s in the game with easily the highest Vegas total at 218.5. The Blazers and Suns both play at top-10 paces and Phoenix has allowed a below-average 103.2 points per 100 possessions on the year. Lillard will match up against Eric Bledsoe, who has allowed PGs to score (per our Matchups tool) 5.6 DK points above salary-based expectations in the past year, although he’s been better and healthier this year: Opposing PGs have been about average (+0.5 Plus/Minus) against him this season. Dame doesn’t rate highly on either DK or FD in the Phan Model because of the high price tag, but he certainly has a very high ceiling. He’s projected for 34.7 minutes and a position-high 31.84 usage rate.
Values
Deron Williams is doubtful for today’s game against the Lakers, which means J.J. Barea will get the start and see a heavy amount of minutes. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations every game this year, and last game he scored 33.7 FD points in 46.1 minutes. That was an overtime game, so Barea’s minutes will be a bit lower, but they’ll still be quite high: His 36.4 minute projection currently leads all PGs in the slate and he’s also projected for 26.1 usage at just $6,000 DK and $5,700 FD. The Lakers have been below average defensively this year and have allowed PGs to score 1.2 points above salary-based expectations on DK. Barea has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FD at +6.81 and will be the über-chalk: He’s projected for slate-high 17-20 percent ownership on FD.
Kris Dunn has held steady at around 28-30 minutes since taking over the starting PG role in Minnesota. He’s projected in that range today (29.5), and although he has a low usage rate projection (16.96) his salary hasn’t moved: He’s actually slightly cheaper ($4,800) on FD today than he has been the past two games ($4,900). He faces a Brooklyn team that ranks 19th on defense this year and will face fellow 2016 draft pick Isaiah Whitehead, who posted a poor 108 defensive rating in his short time in the NBA. Minnesota is implied for 105.25 points, the fourth-highest mark today. Dunn is a solid option in cash games or tournaments if you’re fading Barea.
Leverage Play
Because of the immense value he provides, Barea is easily the highest-rated FD PG in the Phan Model. The next guy is Kyrie Irving, who struggled last game (21.4 FD points in 33.9 minutes against the 76ers) but hadn’t been below 30 FD points in any of his first five games. Today he’ll face a tough Atlanta defense that currently ranks second in the NBA and has held opposing PGs to 1.5 points below salary-based expectations on DK. However, that’s seemingly priced in today, as Kyrie is $7,300 on FD, down from $7,800 in the past three games. He’s projected for 34.1 minutes and a 30.2 usage rate. He’s a nice leverage play down from Lillard in tournaments.
Shooting Guard
Stud
I think we can officially say that Devin Booker‘s sprained right toe is now feeling better: He has scored 38 and 39 real points in his last two games — 50.1 and 41.3 FD outings. He has played absolutely huge minutes in the last three — 45.3, 41.5, and 38.5 — and his 35.7 projection today could be on the conservative side. He’s also put up at least 22 shots in the last two games and is projected for a 27.30 usage rate today, which again could be conservative if this game against Lillard and the Blazers turns into a fast-paced affair. Booker has the highest-projected ceiling at 42.4 FD points, although that comes with a high 13-16 projected ownership. Still, this is a really nice spot for Booker in a high-total game against a Blazers team that has allowed 1.5 points above salary-based expectations to SGs on DK this year.
Value
Wesley Matthews played a ton of minutes (43.7) last game in Dallas’ overtime win against the Bucks and is projected for a high number (36.9) today. As mentioned above, the Mavs will likely be without Deron Williams, which means that Barea will have to man the PG spot and not play off the ball as he often does when Deron is available. That may not affect Matthews in a huge way — he’ll get minutes regardless — but it does increase his upside, as Harrison Barnes has been playing quite a bit of small-ball four and the wing depth is pretty thin behind those two guys. Matthews is the highest-rated FD SG in the Phan Model and boasts the highest Projected Plus/Minus at +4.64.
Leverage Play
The second-worst team against SGs this year has been the Phoenix Suns: Per our Trends tool, they’ve allowed 3.6 points over salary-based expectations to DK SGs over the past year. That bodes well for CJ McCollum, who had an excellent game last outing against tougher competition, putting up 47.8 FD points in 39.1 minutes against the Grizzlies. For as good as Booker has been offensively in his young career — he turned 20 last freaking week — he’s been pretty awful defensively: He owns a terrible -3.9 Defensive Real Plus/Minus over the past year and has allowed opponents to score 5.0 points above salary-based expectations over that same time frame. The Blazers are implied for the highest total on the night at 113 points and McCollum — a guy who scores a position-high 0.89 fantasy points per minutes — is set up for a potentially huge game.
Small Forward
Stud
The SF position has a similar dynamic to the PG one today: LeBron James is $3,000 more than any other SF on DK and $2,500 more on FD. He’s been a monster lately, scoring 54.6 and 56.4 FD points in his last two games against the 76ers and Celtics. Those are poor defensive teams, sure, but it’s important to note LeBron’s minute totals in those: 35.9 and 36.4. It was speculated that LBJ might rest a little more this year, but that just hasn’t been the case no matter the matchup or Vegas spread: He’s played 35-40 minutes in every game this year. He’s projected at 35.6 minutes today and his usual high 29.76 usage rate. He’s far and away the best player at this position: His 1.27 fantasy points per minute dwarfs the next player’s (Rudy Gay at 0.89, interestingly). This is a tough matchup against the second-ranked defense in the Hawks, although Bron probably has the easiest matchup: When the Cavs play big with Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, the Hawks will likely have to use Kent Bazemore on him.
Value
LeBron has the highest Projected Plus/Minus value currently (+5.68) among FD SFs, but below him is Harrison Barnes at +4.31. So . . . is there a chance that Harry isn’t quite as bad as we thought? He’s coming off an excellent game in which he scored 34 real points and 49.6 FD points in 48.4 minutes of action. He was efficient, too: He shot 13-26 from the field and 2-5 from the 3-point line. That could certainly turn out to be an outlier, but the high minutes and usage rate are likely here to stay given the Mavs’ lack of depth with Deron and Dirk Nowitzki out. Per our Matchups tool, Barnes should face off against Lakers PF Julius Randle, who might be pretty darn good as well. If you’re targeting Barnes, do so on FD, where he has nine Pro Trends and a 99 Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Rudy Gay is very intriguing as a leverage play in tournaments today due to his price point: He’s the second-highest salaried SF after LeBron at $7,400 FD, but he’s $1,000 more expensive than still-hot TJ Warren, who plays in the highest-total game of the evening. As such, Gay has a lower rating on FD, although he’s actually rated higher than Warren on DK because of the discount there: Gay is $6,800 compared to Warren’s $6,900 price tag. In fact, Gay is currently the highest-rated DK SF in the Phan Model. Gay is projected for 34 minutes and a 26.01 usage rate currently and will face a Pelicans team that ranks 16th on defense and has allowed DK SFs to score 1.9 points below salary-based expectations this season. Gay has a high ceiling and will come at low ownership tonight.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is playing on another back-to-back — his third of the year — and will face a Kings team that currently ranks 26th on defense, allowing a miserable 107.8 points per 100 possessions on the year. Davis exceeded salary-based expectations on FD by 3.39 points last night against the Warriors at Oracle. That seems like a low number considering he scored 49.1 points on a 33-13 line. Davis is definitely the class of the position, as his 1.28 fantasy points per minute sits considerably higher than any other PF’s, as does his projected ceiling at 66.4 FD points. He’s projected for 34.9 minutes and a slate-high 33.21 usage rate, although I will caution that there’s some risk here: He’ll match up against DeMarcus Cousins, who 1) is a massive human and 2) is drawing 7.8 fouls per 36 minutes in the past year. Davis could have a huge game, but he could also see limited minutes due to foul trouble.
Value
The same player has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among PFs on both DK and FD tonight: Portland’s Al-Farouq Aminu. He struggled last game against the Grizzlies, scoring 17 DK points in 33.5 minutes of action, but he gets a much easier matchup tonight against 31-year-old Jared Dudley, who has allowed opposing PFs to score 4.3 points over salary-based expectations in the past year. Aminu is projected for 31.7 minutes and a 16.89 usage rate, which isn’t ideal but this game does have the highest total and Aminu should get the benefit of sheer volume of possessions. At $4,800 on both DK and FD, he holds Projected Plus/Minus values of +4.85 and +5.37. He’s the highest-rated PF in the Phan Model for both sites and is in play in all contest formats tonight. #rhyming
Leverage Plays
Paul Millsap and Kevin Love will face each other tonight in a game with a Vegas total of 207 — the second-highest mark behind the Suns/Blazers game. However, note that the Cavs are large 8.5-point favorites, which puts the Hawks at 99.25 implied points — the second-lowest total tonight — despite the high-total game. Millsap and Love both have similarly-projected ceilings — 48.9 and 48.5 FD points, respectively — and have almost identical minute and usage projections as well. Millsap comes at a bit of a higher price — he’s $600 more on DK and $700 more on FD — although he has the higher projected floor. Contrarian to public view, Millsap has actually been the poorer defender of the two, allowing 2.7 points above salary-based expectations to PFs in the past year, compared to Love’s mark of -0.2. Both are interesting leverage plays down from Brow and both come with projected ownership on FD of 13-16 percent.
Center
Stud
Ah, another position in which there is one player (DeMarcus Cousins) who is quite a bit higher in price than everyone else. Boogie is really expensive on DK at $10,400 and thus has a fairly low rating in the Phan Model and holds a -0.85 Projected Plus/Minus despite his massive 65.9-point projected ceiling. On FD, though, he’s going to be really hard to fade. At $9,500, he holds a whopping 14 Pro Trends and a position-high +4.83 Projected Plus/Minus. He gets the Pelicans and their 16th-ranked defense on the second leg of a back-to-back — after facing the Warriors, no less — and is projected for 34.6 minutes and a position-high usage rate of 33.65 percent. He is easily the highest-rated center in the FD Phan Model. The Pelicans are the worst rebounding team in the league, averaging 45.9 total rebounds per game. Boogie could put up an absolutely monstrous night.
Values
After Boogie, the player with the highest Projected Plus/Minus values is Andrew Bogut at +4.75 on DK and +4.38 on FD. Bogut doesn’t have a very high ceiling at just 37.2 FD points, but that’s definitely fine given his low price points of $4,200 DK and $4,500 FD. He’s projected for 26.1 minutes and played 34.3 in Dallas’ last game in overtime against the Bucks. The Lakers (his opponent today) rank 21st in the league this year in defensive rebound rate (75.4 percent) and Bogut is currently grabbing a career-high (by a lot) 25.7 percent of the available rebounds while on the floor. He’s pulled down 16, nine, 14, and 12 rebounds in his last four games. He likely can’t score enough points to hit the double-double mark, but he’s a solid bet to get double-digit rebounds at a low price point tonight.
Leverage Play
Karl-Anthony Towns has been consistent this year — he’s scored at least 30 FD points in each of his first fives games — but he’s had only one ‘ceiling game,’ in which he exploded for 55.8 points against the Nuggets in 37.5 minutes of action. But context is needed: He’s faced the Grizzlies’ frontcourt twice, Boogie once, and the Thunder last game. Today’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, who currently rank 19th on defense, is a much easier one. And that even undersells it: He’ll face off against Brook Lopez, who has allowed a purely awful 8.6 points over salary-based expectations in the past year to centers — easily the worst mark in the slate. Because of his disappointing start to the year and Boogie’s nice matchup against the Pelicans, KAT could go underowned today. Low-owned KAT against the Nets is always a good thing.
Good luck!
News Updates
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