Tuesday brings a five-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets
Vegas: 226 over/under, Raptors -11.5
In the last eight games against the Nets, here’s how Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have fared:
Perhaps it’s not as much a choice as much it is a decision of how much Lowry you want tonight. Lowry ranks second in the league in minutes per game, he leads the Raptors with a +7.40 DraftKings Plus/Minus in road games, and his usage rate increases from 22.5 percent at home to 26.0 percent on the road. Compared to the rest of the point guards on the slate, he offers the best Consistency and Upside over the past month.
Patrick Patterson is questionable to play after missing two games because of a sore left knee, including the Raptors’ 132-113 win over the Nets last Friday. Lucas Nogueira has averaged 27.67 FanDuel points in the past three games against the Nets, and if Patterson is ruled out, Nogueira will likely receive close to 30 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 29.17 FanDuel points on 88.9 percent Consistency in the last nine games against the Nets, and if Patterson is unable to play, Valanciunas will garner consideration in all contest formats after recording three straight double-doubles in less than 30 minutes.
For as bad as the Nets are this season — they have the worst record in the league — they are at least competitive at home, which quells my fears about the 11.5-point spread. They’ve allowed at least 100 points in 16 straight games — a stretch in which they’ve ranked first in pace and last in Offensive Efficiency, scoring 99.3 points per 100 possessions. Coach Kenny Atkinson runs a deep rotation and minutes are rarely consistent from game to game. Brook Lopez is the one player who consistently exceeds 30 minutes. Spencer Dinwiddie has shown promise lately as the interim starting point guard, but he was held scoreless in the Nets’ most recent game and profiles more as a risky punt play after posting between 12.4 and 26.1 FD points over the past eight games.
Houston Rockets at Miami Heat
Vegas: 221 over/under, Rockets -7.5
Before making a decision on James Harden, I find it best to re-read Bill Monighetti’s article scouting Harden’s tendencies. Harden’s performance drops off on the road, and in his last 10 road games, he’s averaged 49.6 FD points. His recent average would fall two points shy of his salary-implied total, yet he’s projected to be the highest-owned player in FD and DK GPPs. Another blemish in Harden’s cap is the single-digit spread. In 15 games in which the Rockets have been favored by less than 10 points on the road, Harden has averaged 51.08 FD points on only 57.1 percent Consistency.
What about Ryan Anderson, you ask? Well, gander at his home/road splits:
I can’t tell you why he performs better away from Houston, but it would appear the most advantageous to time to roster Anderson would be on the road. However, Anderson is doubtful, so this is just something to keep in your back pocket until next time. Sam Dekker or Corey Brewer may start if Anderson can’t go, and Trevor Ariza would likely play close to 40 minutes as the dual small forward and power forward. The Rockets play early enough that Anderson’s status and the starting lineup will be known before lineups lock. If Ariza starts at power forward and Brewer slots alongside him, Dekker loses shine as a punt play, but Eric Gordon will remain a strong cash option due to the shooting guard player pool.
Clint Capela is expected to start, and his return will chop down the value of Montrezl Harrell and Nene. It is the first game of a back-to-back set, so Nene may take the night off with Capela returning, but nothing is imminent on that front. Capela’s minutes won’t be hard-capped, but it is his first game after missing 15 games due to an injury, and coach D’Antoni has four options (if Anderson is healthy) to run out at center. D’Antoni added, “I don’t think (Capela’s) at a minutes limit. He’ll be a self-check. His condition being what it is, we’ll keep him under 20 minutes probably.”
Speaking of home/road splits, feast your eyes on Hassan Whiteside‘s:
The results improve when weeding out teams with a negative Pace Differential: He climbs to a +8.39 DK Plus/Minus on 92.3 percent Consistency. He doesn’t offer much stability as a cash-game draw, but he’s projected to be owned in fewer GPPs than Karl-Anthony Towns. Once you read the synopsis on Towns, you’ll see why pivoting down to Whiteside would be the prudent move in GPPs.
With Dion Waiters in the starting lineup, Goran Dragic has failed to meet salary-based expectations in two straight games, and he’ll likely be guarded by the Rockets’ Patrick Beverley. Waiters, conversely, exceeded salary-based expectations in two straight games and led the team in shot attempts. Although extremely erratic, he’s a solid GPP play due to his comparatively cheaper salary at his position, where he carries the third-best Opponent Plus/Minus for projected starters.
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls
Vegas: 196.5 over/under, Bulls -5.5
Many of the Mavs remain cash-game options. Both Harrison Barnes and Seth Curry have provided 92 percent Consistency over the past month. Power forwards projected to play at least 18 minutes against the Bulls have recorded a league-best +4.99 FD Plus/Minus, and although Barnes isn’t listed at PF on FD, he starts at power forward and posted 32.75 DK points against the Bulls earlier this season.
Dirk Nowitzki may be the most attractive Maverick outside of Tom Cruise, and it has to do with Robin Lopez‘s inability to close out on floor-spacing bigs. Behold a sample size of 10 opposing centers who have averaged at least 0.5 3-point attempts per game this season:
The Bulls haven’t even faced Joel Embiid, but players like Myles Turner, Marc Gasol, Anthony Davis, and Brook Lopez have all feasted on the Bulls this season. It also means that Robin Lopez may not play his typical minutes in deference to Cristiano Felicio. Nowitzki has played at least 27 minutes in five straight games and has averaged a +7.81 FD Plus/Minus. He’s $400 cheaper on FD at a loaded power forward spot, making him a solid pivot play or even a PF2 in cash games.
Nikola Mirotic is set to return after missing four games because of an illness. Players coming back from sickness have generally been poor, excluding Jimmy Butler‘s recent game after reportedly losing 10 pounds. Coach Fred Hoiberg added, “We’ll have to keep a close eye on him. Conditioning is going to be the biggest thing after being out of the lineup for a week . . . I think he lost eight pounds with the virus he had. Now it’s about getting him back in game shape and getting his timing back.” Nonetheless, Mirotic is a welcome sight for Butler, and when Mirotic and Doug McDermott are on the court, Butler averages 1.5 DK points per minute. Butler presently leads all small forwards on both sites in projected ownership, and based on the player pool, it’s easy to see why. He was overshadowed by McDermott in the most recent game, and he exceeded salary-based expectations while missing a triple-double by two rebounds and four assists. However, a slate-worst Opponent Plus/Minus and an active Dwyane Wade should restrict Butler to GPPs.
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
Vegas: 200 over/under, Spurs -11.5
The Timberwolves are implied to score less than 100 points for the sixth time this season, and they are double-digit underdogs on the road. There’s not much to like about that amalgamation of factors, restricting exposure of these guys to GPPs.
In his last eight games against the Spurs, Andrew Wiggins has averaged 19.65 FanDuel points. When sharing the court with Kawhi Leonard, he’s made 27-of-72 shots (37.5 percent), and when Leonard has been off the court, he’s converted 14-of-38 attempts (36.8 percent). Conversely, Zach LaVine has averaged a +7.02 FD Plus/Minus (the highest of any active Timberwolf) in his last eight games against the Spurs. It’s an either/or proposition with Wiggins and LaVine, and LaVine recently returned from a hip injury that caused him to miss two games. They both cost $6,000 on DK, and LaVine costs $500 less on FD. LaVine also offers a +10.6 DK Plus/Minus in games in which the Timberwolves are implied to score less than 100 points this season, and he’s not projected to be guarded by Leonard.
Karl-Anthony Towns has played four games against the Spurs. He’s shown zero percent Consistency in those matches while averaging a -6.20 FD Plus/Minus. You may recall the Karl-Anthony Towns decision tree: Is he playing at home? No, he is not, which curbs his cash-game appeal. Alternatively, Gorgui Dieng, who will play despite dealing with an illness, has a negative correlation with Towns as well as inverted home/road splits. His best correlation aligns with LaVine.
The Spurs scare me in this game because they lost to the Suns last time out. I suspect a well-executed performance that could potentially cap minutes across both teams, which really places most of the players in a precarious spot. I am intrigued by Danny Green at a season-low $3,300 on DK and $3,500 on FD strictly for the savings. Kawhi Leonard isn’t positively correlated with any other starter, and he led the Spurs with 42.75 DK points in the first meeting against the Timberwolves. He also monopolized the offense, leaving LaMarcus Aldridge frittering with 13.0 DK points and a whopping -16.2 DK Plus/Minus. Leonard remains a solid choice in cash games, mainly due to the field at his position, but the rest of the Spurs are extremely risky due to the double-digit spread, which has been covered ad nauseam by Mears and myself.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas: 230 over/under, Nuggets -1
Kenneth Faried was inserted into the starting lineup last night and performed well alongside Nikola Jokic. Although both appear incompatible due to their negative correlation, Faried is shooting 74.1 percent from the field with Jokic on the court, as opposed to 49.1 percent with Jokic on the bench.
Per T.J. McBride:
Since Dec. 15, when Jokic replaced Jusuf Nurkic in the starting lineup, the combination of Faried and Jokic is boasting a 132.7 Offensive Rating in 53 minutes together, which is the best two-man pairing on the Nuggets in that span. What is surprising is that two-man pairing not only has the Nuggets’ best OffRtg but also the team’s best Defensive Rating of 98.3 since Dec. 15.
The Lakers are not formidable in the interior, where Faried does all of his work. He has the best Opponent Plus/Minus at his position, and he’s extremely cheap for a player who is in line to sustain his new role. Barring a return to a reserve role, Faried is a solid option in all formats at his position due to the depressed salary.
Jokic hasn’t committed more than three fouls in five consecutive games while averaging 29.3 minutes per outing. He’s been sensational, and he gets one of the easiest matchups for centers this season in a game with the highest-implied Vegas total. His 75 percent Upside over the past month leads all players in the player pool and coincides with his reinsertion into the starting lineup.
Gary Harris sprained his right ankle yesterday, and coach Michael Malone doesn’t believe Harris will play tonight. Jameer Nelson was the first sub off the bench for Harris, and he started the second half, which may offer an indication as to who will start against the Lakers if Harris is ruled out. Because the game doesn’t begin until three hours after lineups lock, Nelson and Will Barton will command at least GPP representation. Nelson’s salary is close to the minimum on both platforms and he’s provided at least 21.5 DK points in three straight games coming off the bench. Barton offers a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FD, although he’s been downgraded to probable because of an illness.
Jordan Clarkson and Tarik Black, who are both dealing with ankle injuries, have been upgraded from questionable to probable. The concern in Los Angeles is coach Luke Walton’s dynamic backcourt rotations. He coaches based on feel and lets the hot hand remain in the game, making it difficult to predict which guard will dominate the possessions. Walton’s frontcourt rotations are slightly tighter due to the absence of Larry Nance, and that gives Julius Randle close to 30 minutes a night. However, he has scored a combined six actual points in his last two games, and the recency bias could limit his exposure across the public. Taking one glance at his home/road splits, the case for Randle instantly gains credibility:
When factoring how point guards perform against the Nuggets this season (minimum projected 18 minutes), it’s difficult to fade D’Angelo Russell on FD at $6,000. Kyle Lowry and Nelson will likely gain the most traction at point guard, but Russell shouldn’t go overlooked.
News Updates
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