The Charlotte Hornets are expected to lose tonight. They’re playing their eighth game in 12 nights and fourth game in five nights. Cheri Mah, a sleep consultant, has devised a formula to predict when teams are facing a distinct competitive disadvantage and likely to succumb to a “schedule loss,” and the Hornets have rated an 8.5 on her 0-12 point scale. The Hornets’ opponent, the Pistons, have had two full days off heading into tonight’s battle. Perhaps minimize your exposure to the Hornets tonight.
Point Guard
Stud
Chris Paul’s salary has increased to a season-high $8,900 on DraftKings and declined to a season-low $8,800 on FanDuel. In the past five games against the Nets, he’s failed to record fewer than 41 FanDuel points, and his implied point total for today’s game sits at 36.49 points. The Nets rested Brook Lopez in their previous meeting — one that began with the Clippers jumping out to a 35-7 lead. The Clippers are currently implied to score a slate-best 114.5 points, but the 12.5-point Vegas spread and Paul’s inability to match value in his past three games make him more of a GPP play in the event the Nets are able to remain competitive without Jeremy Lin and potentially Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who’s questionable to play with a sore right ankle.
Values
Point guards continue to thrive against the Hornets this season, registering a league-high 69 percent Consistency on DraftKings. After failing to meet his implied point total in Saturday’s contest against a point-guard friendly opponent, Ish Smith will get the opportunity to redeem himself. If your lineup decision comes down to Smith or Elfrid Payton — who is $100 more on DraftKings and faces the Spurs — Smith offers more stability, as point guards who cost at least $4,000 have historically owned a +4.69 Plus/Minus on 73.7 percent Consistency on DraftKings against the Hornets this season.
Jose Calderon is stuck at $3,500 on FanDuel, and he’ll likely start for the fifth straight game with D’Angelo Russell unavailable. In the previous four starts, Calderon’s minutes have ranged from 13 to 28, but he’s never dipped below 17.2 FanDuel points, which is four points higher than his salary-implied point total today.
Leverage Play
Giannis Antetokounmpo has typically performed well when he goes up against the stars of the league, and his performance against the Cavaliers has resulted in his third-highest average Plus/Minus (+5.9) on DraftKings. Antetokounmpo currently leads all players on the slate with 14 Pro Trends, and he’s the most expensive point guard on the slate — $300 more than CP3. Antetokounmpo is tied with Kemba Walker with 92 percent Consistency on DraftKings over the past month — the best mark among point guards on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Rockets and Jazz played earlier this season. Although the Rockets were able to notch 111 points, they were held to a season-low 95 possessions and George Hill was unable to play. The Jazz currently rank last in pace and third in defensive rating; their 92.6 defensive rating in home games leads all teams.
James Harden is the second-most expensive option on both sites but comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of -6.27 on DraftKings and FanDuel. When Rudy Gobert was on the court with Harden in the first meeting, Harden attempted one shot inside of 10 feet and was limited to 40 percent shooting from the field. The Rockets are implied to score 103 points — tied for their second-lowest mark this season — and, in those games, Harden recorded 60.3 and 64.5 DraftKings points. The Jazz’ defense already allowed Harden to hit 57.3 DraftKings less than two weeks ago, and, with projected ownership of at least 41 percent in FanDuel GPPs, fading Harden and opting for cheap guards in order to pay up at leaner positions may be the route to travel.
Value
J.J. Redick produced 29.4 FanDuel points against the Nets earlier this season and did not play the final 16 minutes of the game. Not only are the Nets close to the worst defense in the league on a per-possession basis, but, because they play at the second-fastest pace, they’ve allowed a league-high 118.0 points per game over the past 10 games. Redick has historically done most of his damage in the first quarter or against Harden; in this case, we’re banking on early production and rest in the fourth quarter.
Leverage Play
Jeremy Lamb has played the fewest minutes (65) of the Hornets’ regular rotation players during their past seven games. All but six of those minutes have come in the past two games, but he’s exceeded 35 FanDuel points in both. If the Hornets are truly destined to lose due to sleep deprivation and the toll of the NBA schedule, Lamb profiles as the least susceptible to face fatigue since this will mark his seventh game all season. If this game turns sideways, he’ll play additional minutes as a reserve in garbage time. It’s points-chasing with a purpose.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James leads all starting small forwards projected to play at least 25 minutes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.04 on DraftKings, and small forwards have averaged a league-best +2.43 Plus/Minus when facing the Bucks this season. He’s the top small forward option on DraftKings despite playing 42 minutes in Sunday’s win over the Sixers, and he’s a lock for cash games once you peruse the rest of the small forward options.
Value
Kawhi Leonard is cheaper than James by at least $1,300 on both sites, but the disparity is larger on FanDuel, where Leonard currently leads all players in Projected Plus/Minus and projected ownership. The Magic have ranked first in defensive rating since replacing Aaron Gordon in the starting lineup with Jeff Green, but Green missed the previous game with a back injury and could be out again tonight. In Green’s absence, the Magic yielded more than 94 points for the first time in seven contests as coach Frank Vogel went rogue with the starting lineup and relied on an eight-man rotation. Leonard leads all small forwards in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and his Upside over the past month is six percentage points below James’, who costs $1,300 more.
Leverage Plays
The dip from Leonard and James to the rest of the small forwards is stark. Marcus Morris has dropped down to a season-low $4,700 on FanDuel and warrants consideration, especially with the backdrop of the Hornets’ schedule. Aaron Gordon has similarly declined in price to a season-low $4,100 on FanDuel, and he’s nothing more than a flier in tournaments; his projected ownership is two to four percent in a matchup with Kawhi. On this slate, the best bet is to double-up on Leonard and James and rely on value from other positions.
Power Forward
Stud
Before I get to Anthony Davis, I want to express where the Lakers rank in pertinent categories: 28th in defensive rating, fourth in pace, and last in opponent field goal percentage within five feet of the rim and in the restricted area.
Davis briefly exited the Pelicans’ first game against the Lakers this season because of a stiff lower back and recorded 49.6 FanDuel points in 35 minutes. He’s played at least 38 minutes in four of the past five games, and the Pelicans are implied to score 111 points. Aside from the perpetual injury threat, the only reason to fade Davis is price-related: He costs a season-high $11,600 on DraftKings and a season-high $12,000 on FanDuel. His point totals from the Pelicans’ last meeting with the Lakers will not justify the expense this time around, but the Lakers don’t have anyone to contain him and he’s projected to play 39.9 minutes tonight; anything over 37 minutes has resulted in an average of 62.75 DraftKings points this season.
Values
Thomas Robinson leads the Lakers in rebound percentage and the Pelicans rank last in team rebound percentage this season. I don’t believe Julius Randle will play tonight as he deals with a hip pointer; in the Lakers’ last game, coach Luke Walton started Robinson to match the Hawks’ size. Robinson failed to play more than 16 minutes in either of the last two games, but he pulled down a team-high 18 rebounds over that time and he’s near-minimum on DraftKings ($3,200) and FanDuel ($3,600). Larry Nance definitely has the higher projected ceiling, but Robinson is much cheaper on DraftKings.
Leverage Plays
Blake Griffin is in the same boat as CP3: He’s facing an inferior opponent and may not play more than 30 minutes. In Griffin’s case, Trevor Booker offered little resistance in their last meeting, and Griffin produced 39.2 FanDuel points in 25 minutes. That said, Griffin’s price has escalated since then, and he’s failed to exceed salary-based expectations in three straight games. Kevin Love is cheaper on both sites and has better recent production, which could potentially sway ownership in his favor.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond leads all center-only players in average DFS production over the past month, and that’s enough to be considered a ‘Stud.’ However, in his past seven meetings with the Hornets, Drummond has recorded a -5.61 Plus/Minus on 28.6 percent Consistency on FanDuel. Fret not. The Hornets rank 28th in offensive rebound percentage and Drummond ranks third in the NBA with 13.4 rebounds per game. We have the “schedule loss” narrative on our side, as well as a reasonable $7,400 salary on DraftKings. The salary difference is large enough on FanDuel to roll the dice with DeAndre Jordan in tournaments, but Drummond leads all centers on DraftKings with a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.8.
Value
The Bucks have really struggled against centers this season. Tristan Thompson has provided 92 percent Consistency over the past month on FanDuel, where he costs a season-high $5,000. Without Channing Frye the past two games, Thompson has averaged 29.15 FanDuel points per game and recorded consecutive double-doubles. It’s unknown if Frye will play tonight; if not, Thompson’s playing time should remain steady.
Leverage Plays
Clint Capela already recorded a season-high 39.1 FanDuel points against the Jazz this season on a career-high 19 shot attempts. Rudy Gobert countered with 40.3 FanDuel points in the same game. Gobert costs $800 more and the Jazz are playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, making Capela the more appealing venture. In Gobert’s case, he’s also an additional $100 more than DeAndre, whose projected floor and ceiling marks are higher.
News Updates
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