The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a small three-game slate at 7:30 pm ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, let’s go game-by-game.
Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets
Vegas: 206.5 total, Celtics -7.5
Kyrie Irving is the most-expensive option on the slate at $8,500 on FanDuel, although he’s currently questionable to play with a minor facial fracture that has kept him out of the better part of two games. Thankfully he plays in the first game of the night, so we should have news on his availability prior to lock. That’s a good thing because you’ll likely want a lot of Celtics on this small slate: They’re facing the Brooklyn Nets, who rank first in pace by a wide margin, averaging 107.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and 24th in defensive efficiency (106.7 points per 100 possessions). The Celtics remain red hot, winning 12 in a row after starting the season 0-2. If a game were to be blow out tonight, it’d be this one (although the spread opened at just 7.5 in favor of the Celtics).
In the full game Kyrie missed (he went out early in the game before that), Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart were the main beneficiaries, posting 30.3 and 35.5 DraftKings points in 28.4 and 32.5 minutes, respectively. In all minutes this year with Kyrie off the floor, pretty much all of the starters have seen a nice increase in usage rate:
Make sure to buy these players at their lowest points. For example, Smart is a better value on FanDuel, where his $6,200 price tag comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating. Rozier is a better value on DraftKings, where his $5,300 price tag comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. They’re both in play in tournaments, of course, but being price-sensitive across sites is certainly wise in cash games.
If Kyrie is in, all of these guys take a major usage hit:
Outside of the Kyrie injury status, this isn’t a complicated situation. The Nets have allowed a collective +4.1 DraftKings Plus/Minus to players projected for 20-plus minutes (second-most in the league). They are generous to every position, although they’re especially so against big men:
Be it Al Horford, Marcus Morris (who is very cheap on FanDuel today), or a bounce-back spot for Jayson Tatum — it’s fine to be heavy on the Celtics.
Update: Kyrie is “on track to play” Tuesday.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the season so far is that the Celtics are dominant defensively, ranking first in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 95.4 points/100. As such, it’s probably wise to be a little cautious with the Nets, although it isn’t exactly a huge slate with lots of options. Further, the Nets are notorious for not playing any of their players heavy minutes; DeMarre Carroll leads the team with an average of 28.7 minutes per game.
With that said, a couple players might have to get to 30-plus tonight due to injuries. D’Angelo Russell is out, which means Spencer Dinwiddie and Isaiah Whitehead are the only healthy PGs on the roster. Wing Sean Kilpatrick will likely have to take a few minutes in the backup role, but this is Dinwiddie’s job currently. The Nets actually kept a fairly tight rotation in the one game sans Russell; five players got above 20 minutes, with four going 30ish-plus.
Again, be cautious given Boston’s elite defense. Target the guys who have upside and will see actually decent minutes like Dinwiddie, LeVert, and Carroll. The former two are especially cheap on DraftKings, where their $4,800 and $4,500 salaries come with Bargain Ratings of 98 and 97 percent, respectively.
Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets
Vegas: 218.5 total, Rockets -6.5
Everyone will likely be on the Boston-Brooklyn game, which gives this — with a decent 218.5-point total — some appeal in GPPs. Of course, James Harden won’t be overlooked: The dude has been ridiculous of late, averaging a +7.11 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his past 10 games despite seeing sky-high price tags:
Toronto has been a beatable matchup this year, especially on the wing: Harden’s +3.53 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings is a top-five mark at the position. It will be interesting to see if rookie OG Anunoby, who is in line to start today for the injured Norman Powell, can give Harden any problems. On one hand, Anunoby is a physical specimen and has the tools to be an elite NBA defender; he was billed coming into the draft as a player with legit chance to guard all five positions. At 6’8″ with a 7’2″ wingspan, he’s definitely capable of hanging with Harden. On the other hand, he’s a rookie wing getting his first NBA start, and Harden is one of the smartest, craftiest players in the world. This will be a fun one to watch:
Speaking of Anunoby, he’s $3,000 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel. This is a tough spot against Houston, but he’s just so cheap on both sites. In 44 minutes this season with Powell off the floor but DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry on, Anunoby has averaged a 13.8 percent usage rate and 0.58 DraftKings points per minute. Even at just 25 minutes — and that’s likely a conservative projection — he should hit value at those poor marks. He’s the prototypical play-in-cash-fade-in-GPPs type of guy today. Also, C.J. Miles C.J. Kilometres fits into that mold.
Harden has been outstanding this season, but don’t overlook the rest of his teammates. Role players like P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza have been very consistent: Ariza specifically has crushed lately, averaging a +3.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He has played at least 30 minutes in every game this season. Clint Capela wanted to get up to 30 minutes this season, and that has come true over his past three games, in which he’s dominated:
Astoundingly, he ranks sixth in the league currently with 2.2 win shares; he’s 23 years old.
Speaking of revelations, Eric Gordon has probably already locked up the Sixth Man of the Year, and that undersells him: He’s been one of the best wings in the league. He looks physically like the player he was at the beginning of his career and has taken on a larger role this season, as evidenced by his massive 28.8 percent usage rate. He and Capela give the Rockets something of a ‘Big 4′ for when CP3 returns, and they’re obviously both in play tonight against the Raptors. Gordon is especially valuable on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Touching quickly on the Raps’ main guys in Lowry and DeRozan. The former has been a disappointment this season, exceeding 40 FanDuel points just once. The latter still has a ceiling worth pursuing in GPPs, especially on a small slate, but he’s historically been at his worst as a road dog:
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Vegas: 201 total, Spurs -6.5
The stepchild of the slate, this game has a brutal 201 over/under and features two teams in the bottom-10 in pace this season. San Antonio has been especially slow this season, averaging just 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes. As such, there’s not a lot of fantasy goodness in this one: No player on FanDuel from this game has a Projected Plus/Minus above +0.4. In fact, only Rudy Gay currently is projected to exceed his salary-based expectations. Obviously multiple players will, but you get the point: This could be an ugly, slow-paced, defensive battle.
With that said, this game is a little more appealing on DraftKings, where Bargain Ratings are generally higher than on FanDuel. One example is Dallas PG Dennis Smith Jr., who leads all players on the slate with 11 Pro Trends; his reasonable $5,600 salary comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. Yogi Ferrell is just $3,800 and comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating; he’s played 34.3 and 35.5 minutes the past two games and could continue to see a heavy load with Dorian Finney-Smith and Devin Harris questionable to play again. Harrison Barnes has been great lately, going for at least 40 DraftKings points in four of his last five games; he could have an easier matchup than normal against the Spurs if Danny Green is ruled out.
With the exception of Smith on DraftKings, all of these guys likely aren’t needed in cash games given the low total, but they do make excellent GPP plays, especially since the public will be all over the Rockets and Celtics. Pau Gasol popped off last game, going for 48.0 DraftKings points and averaging 1.67 fantasy points per minute. He definitely has upside today against a Dallas squad that owns the third-worst rebound rate in the league at 47.0 percent. None of these guys will play heavy minutes in the upper 30s like some of the players mentioned in the other games, but they’ll also have ownership that reflects that discrepancy.
Also, just a quick public service announcement: The Spurs are on the first leg of a back-to-back; you might want to keep our NBA news feed open in case Pop gets silly.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
