The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard features one of the biggest price discrepancies between the two sites today: He’s priced at just $8,400 on DraftKings compared to $9,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on the former. He leads all PGs on DraftKings with 12 Pro Trends, and PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends and Bargain Ratings have historically exceeded value:
Portland has been the second-most efficient offense in the league this season, averaging 114.4 points per 100 possessions, and their implied team total of 112.75 points ranks third on today’s slate.
The Nets and Magic combined for 247 points last Friday, and their combined over/under of 229 points is the largest on today’s slate by a margin of 8.0 points. PGs projected for at least 20 fantasy points have historically thrived in games with comparable implied team totals:
Unsurprisingly, D’Angelo Russell has dominated the offense after the injury to Jeremy Lin. He’s posted a usage of 31.9 percent when playing without Lin this season, averaging 47.54 fantasy points per 36 minutes on FanDuel.
Value
Ricky Rubio presents an interesting dilemma today. On one hand, this is a decent pace-up spot for the Jazz: Their pace differential (paceD) of +4.7 is the top mark on today’s slate. Rubio has also commanded a usage rate of 24.9 percent and is averaging 14.7 points per game this season; both marks would be career-highs if sustained for a full year.
On the other hand, Rubio has an absolutely brutal individual defensive matchup against Patrick Beverley. Beverley was second among PGs in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season and has allowed an average FantasyLabs Plus/Minus of -3.6 to opposing players. Rubio has seen his salary drop by $600 on DraftKings in anticipation of this matchup, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on that site. That kind of salary decrease could potentially outweigh the negatives of a difficult matchup: Rubio has historically dominated with a Bargain Rating of at least 95 percent on DraftKings:
Fast Break
Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins have a combined usage rate of 65.5 percent this season, which hasn’t left much offense available for the rest of the team. Jrue Holiday in particular has suffered: His usage of just 18.2 percent this season represents a decrease of over five percent compared to his career-average. He is coming off a strong game against the Lakers, recording a Plus/Minus of +7.04 on FanDuel, and has another positive matchup today against the Portland Trail Blazers. Lillard was 58th among 76 qualifiers at PG in DRPM last season.
Kyrie Irving has yet to really get it going offensively as a member of the Boston Celtics, owning an average Plus/Minus of just +0.67 on FanDuel through his first three games. That said, Marcus Smart missed practice on Monday and may possibly join Gordon Hayward in street clothes for today’s contest. Irving has assumed a usage rate of over 30 percent this season with both of those players off the court, albeit in a relatively small sample size, and his current field goal percentage of 37.3 percent will undoubtedly improve as the season goes on.
Shooting Guards
Studs
Victor Oladipo is the most-expensive SG on DraftKings today at $7,200 and has an interesting matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves. His night will likely largely depend on whether he’s matched up against Jimmy Butler or Andrew Wiggins on the defensive end of the court. Wiggins was one of the worst defensive wings in the league last season, owning a DRPM of -3.16, while Butler’s mark of +1.80 was one of the best.
Regardless of the matchup, Oladipo should benefit from the continued absence of Myles Turner. So far this season, Oladipo leads the team in usage with Turner off the court:
While Lillard has a difficult matchup against Holiday today, who ranked third in DRPM last season among PGs, C.J. McCollum has a very exploitable matchup against E’Twaun Moore. Moore ranked just 58th among qualifiers at SG in DRPM last season, and that could result in McCollum taking on a larger role than normal today. McCollum has also historically thrived against subpar teams, posting a significantly higher Plus/Minus against sub-.500 teams throughout his career:
Values
Terrence Ross draws one of the top matchups of the day against the Brooklyn Nets and has played at least 30 minutes in both of the Magic’s competitive games this season. He’s also seen a bump in usage of approximately three percent with Elfrid Payton off the court, who has already been ruled out of today’s game. Ross owns a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on DraftKings.
Tim Hardaway Jr. has had two rough games to start his second stint with the Knicks, but he still figures to be a large part of their offense this season. His usage rate of 25.2 percent trailed just Kristaps Porzingis‘ in the Knicks’ last game, and Hardaway has seen his salary decrease by $800 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler has yet to return value as a member of the Timberwolves:
However, that has resulted in a salary decrease of $1,100 on DraftKings since the start of the season. He leads all SGs on DraftKings with 10 Pro Trends and a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
If Smart were to sit for the Celtics, Terry Rozier would likely be the prime beneficiary in today’s contest. He played 30.5 minutes in Smart’s absence last game and has averaged 39.03 fantasy points per 36 minutes on FanDuel so far this season. FanDuel has raised his salary $2,400 since the start of the year, but he still has a Bargain Rating of 75 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James stands out in a class of his own tonight at the SF position: He’s the highest-priced option by $3,100 on DraftKings. Paying up for LeBron rewards players with the top Upside Rating and second-highest Consistency Rating among all SFs on today’s slate. He’s played an average of 39 minutes per game in competitive games so far this season and has averaged 1.43 fantasy points per minute. The only real concern with LeBron is the potential blowout factor against the Bulls: The Cavs are currently slate-high 14.5-point favorites.
Value
Joe Ingles has been among the top fantasy values at SF so far this season on FanDuel:
Ingles has averaged over 31 minutes per game this season, and he’s posted 33.98 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Rodney Hood off the court. Hood is currently questionable for today’s contest.
Fast Break
DraftKings will sometimes bump salaries ahead of tough matchups, and Danilo Gallinari gets that privilege today against the Utah Jazz. He’s yet to return value this season, but his salary decrease of $700 on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Both Bojan Bogdanovic and Lance Stephenson are priced at $3,800 on FanDuel today. Bogdanovic is projected to play more minutes of the two, making him the safer play for cash games, while Stephenson holds a significant edge in usage. They both rank among the top FanDuel options in our NBA Models.
Power Forward
Studs
So far this season, Anthony Davis has been a fantasy monster on DraftKings:
Davis has a matchup today against the Portland Trail Blazers, who allowed the second-highest Plus/Minus to PFs projected for at least 20 fantasy points last season:
That being said, this matchup isn’t exactly a slam dunk for Davis. The Trail Blazers have the highest rebound rate in the league this year, and Davis has exceeded value in part by securing at least 16 rebounds in each of his three games this season. He also has a rough individual matchup against Al-Farouq Aminu, who ranked seventh among qualifiers at PF last season with a DRPM of +3.13.
Like Gallinari, Blake Griffin is getting a significant price discount against the Jazz tonight. His salary has decreased by $600 on DraftKings since the start of the year despite returning value in each of his first two contests, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He leads the slate with 13 Pro Trends, and PFs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically been a solid source of value:
Value
Aminu has a Consistency Rating of 100 percent this season and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.11 on DraftKings over his first three contests. He remains affordable with a $4,800 salary on DraftKings and $5,300 salary on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis has scored at least 30 points in both of his first two games and leads the Knicks with a usage rate of 33.9 percent. He has a solid matchup against the Boston Celtics, who had the second-worst rebounding percentage as a team last season. That said, he’s seen his salary increased by at least $800 on both sites since the start of the year, which makes him a tougher call for cash games.
Domantas Sabonis has started each of the last two games without Turner and appears likely to earn at least two more starts before he returns. He currently leads the team in Plus/Minus with Turner off the court this season:
He has a matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns that seems tough, but KAT ranked last in DRPM last season among 60 qualifiers at center.
Teammate Thaddeus Young has seen his salary decrease by $800 from his last start and has played at least 31 minutes in two of his three games this season. The Pacers are 11-point underdogs in today’s contest, however, and this is a bit of pace-down spot against the Timberwolves.
Center
Studs
DeMarcus Cousins has been nearly as dominant as Davis this season:
He holds a slight edge in usage rate (34.8 percent to 30.7 percent) and has 13 combined blocks + steals over his first three games. He’s also averaged five assists per game, which has helped make up for the slight decrease in rebound percentage.
Karl-Anthony Towns is coming off his best game of the season and has an excellent matchup today against the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers had the sixth-lowest rebounding rate last season and will be without their best rebounder today in Turner; Towns could have a field day on the glass. Towns is still on pace for the lowest usage rate of his career, but he’s still quite affordable on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Value
Enes Kanter has averaged only 23 minutes per night over his first two contests but has still been able to return value thanks to a cheap salary and an average of 1.19 fantasy points per minute. He does have a tough matchup against Aron Baynes, who ranked 11th in DRPM among centers last season, but he’s averaged just 15 minutes per game over his last two contests; it’s likely that Kanter will spend at least part of his time on the court against a weaker defender.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert and DeAndre Jordan are facing off against each other today, which creates an interesting dynamic. Of the two, Gobert appears to be in the better situation. He’s in the top pace-up spot of the day with a pace differential of +4.6 and has historically crushed in comparable situations:
He’s also seen his salary decrease by $1,200 on DraftKings since the start of the season, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Jordan leads the position with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent but has a brutal matchup against Gobert. He was first among all defenders in DRPM last season, and only the Golden State Warriors allowed a lower average Plus/Minus to centers projected for at least 20 fantasy points last season:
Jordan personally hasn’t thrived in this matchup, averaging a Plus/Minus of just +0.06 over 17 contests in the last three seasons. That being said, he has historically crushed with a Bargain Rating of at least 95 percent on DraftKings, recording an average Plus/Minus of +4.74.
Nikola Vucevic is priced up at $9,800 on FanDuel today, which blows away his previous career-high price tag of $9,200. It’s normally not wise to pay for a player who’s priced at his ceiling, but it might be worth making an exception for Vucevic today. He’s commanded a massive usage rate and Plus/Minus with Payton off the court this season:
He also has an excellent matchup against the Brooklyn Nets; he scored 55.90 FanDuel points against them on Friday. He’s currently projected for just five to eight percent ownership on FanDuel.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
