The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tonight we have a massive 13-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Despite a Bargain Rating of 81% on FanDuel, Russell Westbrook has a projected Plus/Minus in the negatives against Golden State. A negative mark in the predictive metric has not been kind to Westbrook over the course of his career — despite his usual colossal ownership in such situations:
This trend has persisted every season but 2016-17 when he had a star-deprived supporting cast, and this season he is averaging a -1.77 Plus/Minus and a cash-game sinking 36.0% Consistency.
Damian Lillard, on the other hand, is a better play on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating and a slate-leading 14 Pro Trends. The reigning Western Conference player of the week is well suited to tournaments for tonight’s matchup in Dallas, as the public has been fading Lillard on the road, which would have been the right move if looking for a bit of extra consistency, but not if looking to maximize upside:
Value
Assuming Elfrid Payton (knee) is out, Tyler Ulis will be among the top values at the position on FanDuel, where he costs just $4,900 and has a 99% Bargain Rating against Sacramento. Ulis has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games and has played over 36 minutes in each of the past three.
Low salaries are making Jerian Grant (and Sean Kilpatrick, who is only SG-eligible on FanDuel) pop in our NBA Models, but it’s tough to get behind anyone in the Chicago rotation even after the Bulls shut down yet another player in Denzel Valentine. Everyone on the team played 14-26 minutes last game, and their stats in that contest were inflated by an outlying 52.4% shooting night from a team that shoots 43.5% on the season, last in the NBA.
Trey Burke has averaged an absurd +10.07 Plus/Minus on DraftKings over his last 10 games and exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight. He faces Orlando at home in the Garden, where his average Plus/Minus (+6.51) is over double his road mark (+2.98) this season.
Fast Break
Chris Paul has been rested a lot lately, but he has produced a Plus/Minus of at least +4 in each of his last four games. He faces Washington tonight and leads all point guards on FanDuel in Pro Trends.
On the other side of the ball, John Wall played over 33 minutes in his last game, and only two players on the slate have more DraftKings Pro Trends.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and the highest projected Plus/Minus of any shooting guard over $5,000. With the Wizards visiting H-Town, it’s important to note that The Beard’s average Plus/Minus has been 3.2 points higher at home since the start of the 2014-15 season, a trend that has held exactly at that mark this season. Chris Paul’s hair has been closer to the scalp than ever before this season, and our On/Off tool reveals his presence on the floor tends to bring down The Beard as well: Harden loses 4.3 points off his usage rate and averages a -3.9 Plus/Minus in the 54 games he’s played with CP3.
Value
Danuel House played 34 minutes for Phoenix last game and finished with a 16-6-3 line with two blocks. He projects for minutes in the high 20s against Sacramento and is a top value across the industry.
JJ Redick and Marco Belinelli both sit near the top of our NBA Models, as both are projected to play around 30 minutes. Belinelli is cheaper and his price has not caught up to his salary on DraftKings lately:
Fast Break
Klay Thompson has seen a usage bump of 4.1 percentage points in games without Stephen Curry (knee) but hasn’t been able to offset the 5.8-point dip in eFG that Steph’s absence causes him.
DeMar DeRozan has a -9,07 DraftKings Plus/Minus in two games against Cleveland this season.
After a streak of five straight games of failing to exceed salary-based expectations on DraftKings, Victor Oladipo has done so four times in his past five games and is one of the top-rated upper-tier options at the position at Denver. And unlike most players, Oladipo has been better on the road, averaging a +3.79 Plus/Minus on the road compared to just +0.57 at home.
Donovan Mitchell, on the other hand, should benefit from being at home against the Lakers; he averages a +2.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus in Utah compared to +0.17 on the road. He also posted a +15.55 in his lone game against the Lakers this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Lebron James‘ salary has cracked $12,000 on DraftKings for just the fourth time since the start of 2014-15, but he’s still a bargain there compared to FanDuel. A negative projected Plus/Minus has not hampered The King this season as long as the game takes place in the city whose economy he almost single-handedly supports:
LeBron’s foil in last year’s NBA Finals, Kevin Durant, has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel tonight against the team he ghosted to go to Golden State. KD’s projected Plus/Minus as of this writing is +6.49, and KD has been a straight-nasty DFS play in his Warriors career anytime his projected Plus/Minus is +4.0 or higher:
Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged an abysmal -3.16 DraftKings Plus/Minus in the 29 games in which he has a negative Plus/Minus projection, as he does today against Boston, which sports the league’s best defensive rating (103.6). However, in pure unicorn fashion, Giannis has averaged a +6.43 Plus/Minus and perfect 100% Consistency Rating in three games against them. Because of course he does.
Value
Robert Covington has averaged a +6.1 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 12 games without Embiid. He’s projected for a Plus/Minus of +7.04 tonight against Brooklyn, and the Trends tool tells us that he’s been a smash play when his projected Plus/Minus is +3 or more:
David Nwaba projects for 27 minutes tonight with Valentine out and has a 90% Bargain Rating on FanDuel against Charlotte, but it’s concerning that his minutes have dropped for three games. He was under 20 for the first time since March 17 last game.
Fast Break
Suns lottery pick Josh Jackson is projected for over 35 minutes tonight against Sacramento and a +4.87 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Despite a rising salary, Jackson has exceed salary-based expectations in 10 straight games.
Paul George scored only 19.75 DraftKings points in his last game against Golden State, but he is projected for a Plus/Minus of over +3, and in that situation he has averaged a solid +2.65 Plus/Minus and 62.5% Consistency this season, per the Trends tool.
Jayson Tatum has a projected Plus/Minus of over +4 on FanDuel for tonight’s tilt in Milwaukee — right in line with the +4.06 he’s averaged over his past 10 games.
Power Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons has been on a tear in the two games since Embiid went down, dropping a 13-12-11 line at Atlanta and following it up with a 20-8-15 line at Charlotte. For tonight’s matchup with Brooklyn, Simmons has the highest ceiling projection on the slate and the highest Plus/Minus projection of any power forward on FanDuel. He also leads all players on the slate in projected Plus/Minus by over three points on DraftKings (where he’s eligible at PG/SF, not PF).
Value
Marquese Chriss has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and has eclipsed salary-based expectations in eight straight games. Chriss projects for just over 30 minutes tonight against Sacramento.
Ersan Ilyasova and Amir Johnson both project for at least 26 minutes tonight with Embiid out. The cheaper Johnson has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, while Ilyasova’s is 86% over at FanDuel.
Rondae-Hollis Jeferson will face Philly tonight and has averaged a +5.41 Plus/Minus on DraftKings over his last 10 games. Even more impressively, he rarely goes under value by more than a few points even when he fails to hit:
Fast Break
Jordan Bell should see an uptick in playing time with Kevon Looney (flu) ruled out, and he’s an especially attractive play at $3,800 on FanDuel, which is cheaper than his $4,200 tag on DraftKings.
Kyle Kuzma leads the position with 13 Pro Trends and a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He makes more sense as a tournament play, as he has gone for a Plus/Minus of +15 or more in one-third of his past 12 games but is facing a Utah squad that ranks second in defensive rating (104.2).
Center
Stud
First, some macro: When it comes to the NBA, home/road splits have to be treated differently depending on whether you’re betting or playing daily fantasy sports. When you’re betting, home teams are more often than not a fade — they’ve covered the spread just 49.1% of the time since 2005, per BetLabs:
When you’re playing DFS, though, you’ll usually get a boost from players at home. Using all players in the FantasyLabs database that have been projected for 24-plus minutes (over 50,000 in total), the Trends tool indicates that players at home average a +2.04 Plus/Minus and 56.2% Consistency while players on the road average a 1.10 Plus/Minus and 52.9% Consistency.
In particular, players who are center-eligible enjoy a 1.41-point Plus/Minus advantage at home (2.59) compared to away (1.18) — by far the largest difference of any position.
And now for the micro: Nikola Jokic is a perfect example of this trend:
Denver is at home tonight and should be in play on DraftKings, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating and a position-leading 11 Pro Trends.
Value
Kyle O’Quinn projects for over 28 minutes against Orlando — his highest projection of the season. O’Quinn has been a beast on DraftKings this season when he’s been projected for 21 or more minutes:
Fast Break
Martin Gortat at Houston and Greg Monroe and Aaron Baynes at Milwaukee all rank behind O’Quinn as top-four centers on FanDuel in the Phan Model (our most accurate PRO NBA Model) — and all project for under 5% ownership. Baynes’ and Monroe’s teammate Al Horford, meanwhile, is averaging a -3.50 Plus/Minus and 33% Consistency for the month.
Steven Adams has averaged a +3.36 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency on DraftKings in three meetings versus Golden State this season.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured: Ben Simmons
Photo credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
