The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday presents a two-game slate that begins at 8pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, and Stephen Curry are three of the four most-expensive players on the slate. Here’s how their ownership was distributed in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on Tuesday’s slate (data via the DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Wall and Thomas both benefited from a high-scoring overtime game, and Wall confirmed he sprained his right ankle in Game 1 of the series during today’s shootaround. He got out to a quick start in Game 2 with Thomas as his primary defender, but the Celtics eventually adjusted their defensive coverage by hiding Thomas on Otto Porter or Kelly Oubre and throwing multiple defenders at Wall. Thomas scored 29 of his actual 53 points in the fourth quarter and overtime, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in consecutive games for the first time in this postseason.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Curry may also be dealing with an ankle issue, but he’ll play tonight. He was limited to 30 minutes in the series opener, which may have been due to a combination of the ankle and the Warriors’ 21-point fourth-quarter lead. The Jazz play at a much slower pace than the Blazers — the Warriors’ first-round opponent — and Curry averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in Game 1, similar to his season-long mark with Kevin Durant on the court (per the On/Off tool).
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Wall is the most expensive of the three options, and when the Wizards have been favored at home this season, Wall has averaged more than today’s salary-implied point total (per the Trends tool):
Wall also confirmed that his left wrist is a bit sore, but he’s going to play tonight. He ranks second in minutes per game this postseason among players not eliminated, and when Thomas has been on the court, Wall has converted 53.9 percent of his field goal attempts. In three previous playoff home games, he didn’t record fewer than 50.0 DraftKings points.
Thomas costs more than Curry on DraftKings and the opposite is true on FanDuel. After both of their performances on Tuesday, the public may decide to spend the extra $600 for Thomas. The Celtics have ranked first in offensive efficiency during the second round, recording an astronomical 124.4 points per 100 possessions, which is similar to the Celtics’ Offensive Rating with Thomas on the court. Thomas will likely be valued more favorably than Curry on this slate, and based on recency bias, Curry will emerge as a pivot play in GPPs.
Value
Shelvin Mack was the preferred backup point guard in Game 1 after being phased out of the rotation during the first round. Mack costs $2,000 on DraftKings, which is the cheapest salary for any guard projected to play minutes in the Player Models. He’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute against the Warriors this season, which would require him to play 10 minutes in order to provide value. Now that George Hill has been ruled out, Mack will likely be the chalk play of the slate. When Mack started against the Warriors earlier this season, he recorded 33.0 DraftKings points in 37 minutes with Hill, Gordon Hayward, and Rodney Hood unavailable. Coach Quin Snyder has yet to name Hill’s replacement in the starting lineup, and we likely won’t find out until after lineup lock.
Fast Break
Shaun Livingston: He recorded 19.5 FanDuel points in his return to the lineup on Tuesday. He’s consistently played between 15 and 20 minutes during the regular season, and with the Warriors presently favored by 13.5 points (per the Vegas dashboard), Livingston could get a couple extra minutes.
Terry Rozier: Coach Brad Stevens has removed Gerald Green and Amir Johnson from the rotation, clearing the way for Rozier to join the eight-man rotation. Rozier leads the Celtics with a 124.6 Offensive Rating when he’s been on the court this postseason, and that mark has improved to an amazing 140.2 in the past two games.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Bradley Beal has struggled with his outside shot the entire postseason, but he failed to record at least 35.0 FanDuel points on two of eight occasions; both instances occurred on the road. The Celtics’ defenders have done a wonderful job forcing Beal into tough shots and navigating the Wizards’ pick-and-rolls to deter clean looks through the first two games. Heading back home may be a suitable cure for Beal’s woes, and when the Wizards have been implied to score at least 107 points as home favorites, Beal has averaged 34.03 FanDuel points.
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Andre Iguodala offers a 95 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he is dual eligible at shooting guard and small forward. The Warriors are presently implied to score less than 110 points at home for the fourth time all year, and in the previous three instances, Iguodala recorded a team-best +4.18 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Marcus Smart: He’s started the third quarter in each of the first two games of the second round, and he may ultimately get the starting nod tonight. He costs $400 less than teammate Avery Bradley, who suffered a hip pointer during Game 2. (Bradley said he’ll play tonight.) Smart’s primary function in this series is to defend Wall, and Smart hasn’t recorded less than 22.5 DraftKings points in 12 straight games, which has resulted in an elite 92 percent Consistency Rating over the past month.
Small Forwards
Stud
Kevin Durant underperformed relative to his salary on Tuesday, and he missed 10 shots for the first time in 15 games. It’s unclear if he’s still dealing with a lingering calf issue, but he appeared to move fine during the first round. The small forward position is laden with the most players presently projected to play at least 30 minutes this evening; there are plenty of alternatives. Despite averaging a team-high 47.05 DraftKings points per game when the Warriors have been favored by at least 10 points this season — exceeding today’s salary-implied point total of 42.15 — Durant has averaged only 41.84 DraftKings points when the Warriors have been implied to score no more than 115 points as a double-digit favorite:
Value
Kelly Oubre has played at least 20 minutes in three straight games, and he’s been the sixth man in both games of the second round. He’s also been the primary defender on Thomas when Wall has been off the court, and all but two of Oubre’s 23 3-point attempts have been classified as open or wide open. Although he’s struggled with his shot during the postseason, he was much more effective at home during the regular season from behind the 3-point line.
Fast Break
Otto Porter: He suffered a bruised elbow and bloody nose in Game 2, but he still played 38 minutes and nearly recorded his second straight double-double. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games, but his salary has risen above $5,000 on FanDuel for the first time in six games.
Jaylen Brown: Coach Stevens lauded Brown’s defense on Beal in Game 2, and that exhibition may extend Brown’s playing time in this series. He’s listed as a shooting guard on DraftKings and small forward on FanDuel, and in both cases, he costs $2,200. Brown played more minutes in Game 2 than starting power forward Johnson, and Brown got most of the second-half minutes.
Power Forwards
Stud
Draymond Green has exceeded salary-based expectations in every postseason game while recording no fewer than two blocks. Markieff Morris‘ foul woes and lingering ankle ailment will likely elevate Green’s ownership in all formats. Green once again offers the sturdiest floor at his position, both in terms of playing time and per-minute production. He hasn’t recorded less than 44.0 DraftKings points in a postseason game yet, and he’s done so by averaging a near triple-double in 35.0 minutes per game. In the lone game in which he was dinged with two early fouls, interim coach Mike Brown left Green in the game; Brown has consistently granted the starters a longer leash than Steve Kerr.
Green: DFS Scouting Report
Value
David West put on a passing clinic in Game 1, and he was successful at drawing Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors away from the rim. West played more minutes than Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee on Tuesday, and he’s exceeded 15.0 FanDuel points in four straight games in no more than 18 minutes.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris: When he hasn’t been in foul trouble or injured, he’s played 38 and 40 minutes this postseason. Prior to fouling out on Tuesday, Morris provided 33.5 DraftKings points in 27 minutes despite dealing with a sprained left ankle. Morris represents the logical pivot off Green, but his limited mobility and 4.0 fouls per game — or 5.5 fouls per 36 minutes — this postseason reduces his appeal in cash games.
Centers
Stud
Al Horford claims the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate, and he leads all centers on the slate in monthly Consistency. He’s also been priced up to his average DFS production over the past month, and Tuesday’s overtime session allowed Horford to exceed salary-based expectations on FanDuel by 2.6 points. He costs $300 less than Green on DraftKings and $1,300 more than Marcin Gortat. When the Celtics have been road underdogs this season, Horford has averaged 31.79 DraftKings points on 57.1 percent Consistency.
Value
Ian Mahinmi isn’t expected to play for the ninth straight game, clearing the way for Marcin Gortat to receive over 30 minutes and Jason Smith to get between 10-15 minutes off the bench. Gortat recorded at least 14 points and 10 rebounds for the fourth time this postseason during Tuesday’s overtime loss, but he required 41.5 minutes prior to fouling out. His playing time has generally hovered around 36 minutes, and when the Wizards have been favored at home this season, Gortat has averaged a +4.33 DraftKings Plus/Minus prior to the All-Star break — a time frame that coincides with Mahinmi’s absence from the rotation.
Fast Break
Kelly Olynyk: His salary dropped to $4,100 on DraftKings, and he’s hovered around total’s salary-implied point total of 18.15 points in each of the last five games. He’s one of three Celtics who has averaged at least 1.0 DraftKings points per game this postseason, and Wizards’ coach Scott Brooks implied he would try to get Bojan Bogdanovic more minutes; that matchup benefited Olynyk in Game 1.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
