The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday presents a two-game slate that begins at 7pm ET. Only six rotations players on either site own a positive Opponent Plus/Minus (per the Player Models), and all four teams are presently implied to score less than 99 points (per the Vegas dashboard). The Grizzlies and Bucks are one loss from elimination, and that may dictate increased minutes for their starters. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Stud
Mike Conley has averaged a +7.73 DraftKings Plus/Minus when the Grizzlies have been home underdogs this season (per our Trends tool), and when facing the Spurs since the 2014-15 season, Conley has been nearly flawless on FanDuel:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in every postseason game, and he’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute since the Grizzlies reshuffled their starting lineup in Game 3. For reference, that is better production than the Spurs’ Kawhi Leonard during that same span and a 0.08 point-per-minute improvement from the first two games.
Conley: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Andrew Harrison has played at least 19 minutes in each game of the postseason, and in the two games in Memphis, he recorded 17.4 and 16.1 FanDuel points. The series shifts back home for the Grizzlies, and Harrison’s salary-implied point total on FanDuel is just 10.15 points.
Matthew Dellavedova offers similar cap relief on DraftKings at $2,800, but he’s been held under 10 DraftKings points in consecutive games. He’s more of a punt option due to the salary relief he provides, but if he can replicate his performance from any of the first three games, he’ll exceed salary-based expectations.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry: Every point guard on the slate possesses a negative Opponent Plus/Minus, and Lowry has the worst mark among them. He’s also dealing with a back issue, and he’s failed to provide value in three of five playoff games. The salary difference between he and Conley is negligible on FanDuel, but Lowry costs $800 less on DraftKings, presenting an opportunity to pivot and gain leverage in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shooting Guards
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most expensive player on the slate, and the main difference between Game 4’s dud and Game 5’s 55.3-point FanDuel performance was six made baskets and four additional free throws. He attempted all but one shot inside of five feet of the rim in the previous game, boosting his scoring totals. Antetokounmpo failed to meet salary-based expectations in both home games in this series, but in an elimination game, he may play more than 40 minutes even if the Bucks are down 20 heading into the fourth quarter.
Antetokounmpo costs at least $10,300 on DraftKings for the 22nd time this season, and in the previous instances, he’s averaged more than today’s salary-based expectation:
He’s played at least 40 minutes in three of the last four games, and he ranks second among all players in this postseason with 100.2 touches per game, according to stat tracking data on NBA.com. His projected ceiling is the highest on the slate, and although he’s been relatively limited by the Raptors’ defense, it will be difficult to overlook him on FanDuel.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
DeMar DeRozan is the fourth-most expensive player on DraftKings, and he’s in the same situation as Antetokounmpo, who is not shooting guard-eligible on DraftKings. The shooting guard slate is loaded with players who cost less than half of DeRozan’s salary, and the only two projected for an above average usage rate — Troy Daniels and Jonathon Simmons — have been out of their team’s primary rotations.
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Antetokounmpo and DeRozan don’t need to be paired on FanDuel due to a value option listed below, but on DraftKings, DeRozan provides immense safety in cash games. He, much like Lowry, has failed to meet salary-based expectations in three of five games against the Bucks, and his career DraftKings Plus/Minus of -3.45 against the Bucks is concerning enough to consider fading him. That said, if Lowry is limited due to his back, DeRozan may carry the playmaking burden. He leads the Raptors with a +8.4 percent usage rate differential with Lowry off the court in this series.
Value
Norman Powell recorded 39.8 FanDuel points in Game 5 at $3,100. His salary has since decreased to $2,600, and he’ll likely remain in the starting lineup. He’s the only player that costs less than $6,000 on the slate to be projected for ownership of at least 41 percent, and he’s played 34 minutes in two straight games. He’s likely going to be the highest-owned player in all formats (which can be tracked at the DFS Ownership Dashboard), and when players have been projected for similar ownership at a salary of no more than $4,000, they’ve provided the best Plus/Minus, Consistency Rating, and Upside among other ownership tiers:
Fast Break
Tony Snell: Powell costs $5,500 on DraftKings, where he’s only small forward-eligible. DeRozan will likely be the obvious choice at shooting guard on DraftKings, but Snell offers comparable playing time, which is not the case for the rest of the available shooting guards. Although coach Jason Kidd has relied on the Dellavedova-Malcolm Brogdon pairing frequently, Snell has played at least 35 minutes in two straight games. His production is heavily reliant on scoring, but among players with more than five 3-point attempts per game, Snell has converted a postseason-best 53.3 percent. The Raptors have yielded 23 3-pointers classified as open or wide open to Snell this series.
Small Forwards
Stud
Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker are still the only Spurs to average a positive Plus/Minus in this series, and Leonard marginally failed to meet salary-based expectations in Game 5 despite playing 39.3 minutes.
When the Spurs have been favored by less than 10 points on the road this season, Leonard has been the most reliable player on the team:
He was more passive in Game 5, recording a usage rate of 26.6 percent, which was less than Parker’s 28.8 percent mark and Leonard’s 32.8 percent usage rate through the first four games. Whether Leonard defers or monopolizes the offense in Game 6, it’s unlikely Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills, and Parker are able to replicate their Game 5 performances on the road. Leonard’s baseline in this series has been set at 28.3 FanDuel points in a Game 3 loss in 30 minutes of play; only four other small forwards on the slate have exceeded 20 FanDuel points in a game in this postseason, and only two of those have done it more than once. Leonard may be the optimal small forward simply because of the player pool.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Values
James Ennis and Vince Carter are starters who cost less than $4,000 on FanDuel and no more than $4,100 on DraftKings. DeMarre Carroll costs $3,000 on DraftKings, and he’s coming off an outlier game of 23.1 DraftKings points in less than 22 minutes. Ennis and Carter have played more minutes than Carroll as coach Dwane Casey rotates through defenders for Antetokounmpo, but none of these three offer a solid floor. Carter has played at least 30 minutes in four straight games, but he hasn’t recorded more than 19.0 FanDuel points, and Ennis is splitting time with Wayne Selden or Troy Daniels — whomever coach David Fizdale prefers in the moment.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton: He’s expected to play despite dealing with an illness, and when the Raptors’ Powell has been on the court in this series, Middleton has converted 6-of-20 shot attempts. Among players with at least 4.0 spot-up opportunities per game, Middleton ranks last with 0.43 points per possession. However, among the small forwards available on today’s slate, he’s one of only two players who has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in the playoffs. Middleton’s lingering illness and the presence of Powell, who costs $800 less on DraftKings, could potentially deflate Middleton’s ownership numbers, and that would be a huge edge on a two-game slate.
Power Forwards
Studs
Serge Ibaka, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Zach Randolph are the most expensive power forwards on the slate. All three cost within $200 of each other on DraftKings, and Aldridge costs at least $500 more than the other two on FanDuel.
When Jonas Valanciunas has been off the court in the postseason, Ibaka has led the Raptors with a +2.2 percent usage rate differential and 1.1 DraftKings points per minute (per the On/Off tool). Since Randolph joined the starting lineup three games ago, he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute. Over that same time period, Aldridge has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute and a subpar 18.3 percent usage rate; he ranks last among the three power forwards in both categories.
Ibaka has played 114 total minutes through five playoffs games, while Aldridge has played 110 minutes over the past three games. Randolph is the most expensive option on DraftKings and the cheapest of the three on FanDuel, but moving into the starting lineup hasn’t increased his productivity. Because Conley and Marc Gasol are tasked with playing more minutes than usual, Randolph hasn’t gotten the benefit of his normal usage rate.
Ibaka may offer the safest floor despite the reduced playing time, as he doesn’t rely on scoring and rebounding for his production: He’s blocked at least three shots in three games in the postseason, and nine of his 12 blocks have come with Valanciunas on the bench. Randolph and Aldridge appear interchangeable, but Aldridge’s minutes may be more secure; he hasn’t played less than 30 minutes in a game yet.
Value
David Lee may start for the third straight game, and since Dewayne Dedmon was available but didn’t play until the final two minutes of Game 5, coach Gregg Popovich may be set on a four-man rotation at power forward and center consisting of Lee, Aldridge, Pau Gasol, and Davis Bertans. Lee and the Raptors’ Powell appear to be the chalk plays on the slate on FanDuel.
Fast Break
JaMychal Green: It appears some combination of the three expensive power forwards and Lee will be the most likely pairing on FanDuel. Green costs $100 less than Lee on FanDuel and $700 less on DraftKings. Since moving to the bench, Green has provided 15.2, 17.8, and 15.1 FanDuel points.
Centers
Stud
Marc Gasol was on pace to play 43 minutes in Game 5 before coach Fizdale emptied the bench for the final two minutes, and Gasol marginally failed to meet salary-based expectations. Even if he fails to meet salary-based expectations again tonight, he could still easily be the highest-scoring player at the position. Gasol remains $7,100 on DraftKings for the fourth straight game, and he’s played at least 38 minutes in three of the last four. No other center on the slate is presently projected to play more than 24 minutes, and none of them have played at least 30 minutes in a game in the postseason.
Value
Thon Maker is the cheapest starting center available on the slate, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games despite splitting minutes at center with Greg Monroe and not playing more than 24 minutes in any game. Since Maker isn’t reliant on scoring, his floor isn’t devastatingly low, and even if he gets into foul trouble it shouldn’t drastically affect his already-low minutes projection.
Fast Break
Greg Monroe: He leads all Bucks in average DraftKings Plus/Minus (+4.99) when the Bucks have been home favorites, and when Ibaka has been on the court, Monroe has converted 60.9 percent of his attempts. He continues to split minutes with Maker, but he ranks second on the team in usage rate and first in average DraftKings Plus/Minus — slightly ahead of Maker’s marks.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
