Thursday presents a three-game slate that begins at 7pm ET. All three matchups pair teams ranked in the bottom half of pace during the first two games of the postseason. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Stud
Only Russell Westbrook has attempted more shots than Kyrie Irving through the first two games of the playoffs. Irving ranks third in usage rate this postseason, and he’s the most expensive point guard option on this slate on FanDuel. What he provides in scoring he lacks in nearly every other category. That hasn’t been an issue in the first two games, but with LeBron James running the offense, Irving’s production is capped despite his advantage on the offensive end.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Tony Parker‘s 31.4 percent usage rate through two postseason games is higher than the marks of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Paul George, and Jimmy Butler. It’s also 10.7 percentage points higher than his regular season mark. Parker’s assist rate is almost nonexistent, and the series shifts to Memphis tonight — an ominous sign for a player who has struggled on the road with a 46.9 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel this year.
Malcolm Brogdon costs $400 less on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, and coach Jason Kidd appears intent on playing him alongside Matthew Dellavedova. While that cuts playing time for Tony Snell, it has allowed Brogdon to play 34 and 37 minutes in the first two games of the series. Brogdon has been reduced to a spot-up shooter in the Bucks’ offense, but the combination of his playing time and salary is unmatched on this slate.
Fast Break
Mike Conley: The over/under for his free-throw attempts has to be in double digits following coach David Fizdale’s rant after the Grizzlies’ Game 2 loss. Conley was able to exceed salary-based expectations in each of the first two games despite being thwarted by the Spurs’ Danny Green. Should the Grizzlies keep the game close, Conley may be relied upon to play close to 40 minutes.
Jeff Teague: He dealt with an ankle issue during the first game of the series, and now he appears to be dealing with a wrist issue in his shooting hand. He leads all projected starters in Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and when playing at home, Teague has averaged a +4.54 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 89 percent Consistency.
Shooting Guards
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo and DeMar DeRozan both offer projected floors that are comparable to the projected ceilings of the rest of the available shooting guards in the player pool.
The last two times Antetokounmpo and DeRozan were on a slate together, they were the obvious choices at shooting guard due to the lack of available options. DeRozan leads all shooting guards on DraftKings in projected ownership, and every other option is projected at less than 15 percent ownership. J.R. Smith is the only other shooting guard projected to play at least 27 minutes (per the Player Models), but he’s dealing with a hamstring issue.
When analyzing where to spend today, the difference in range of outcomes between Antetokounmpo and DeRozan versus the rest of the field is sizable. DeRozan has been limited to a cumulative -2.05 DraftKings Plus/Minus in two games this postseason, and his history against the Bucks the last two seasons is comparable at a -2.81 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). While his average production may warrant a potential fade in GPP scenarios, DeRozan will play close to 40 minutes. Antetokounmpo will as well, although he has dealt with foul trouble the entire season — an issue that has yet to arise in the postseason. Should Antetokounmpo’s proclivity for tick-tack fouls return, someone like Michael Beasley may prosper as a GPP punt option after receiving limited run in the first two games.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Lance Stephenson plays more minutes than starter Monta Ellis, and Stephenson’s salary rose to $5,000 on FanDuel. He ranks first among rotation players in Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and if you’re trying to differentiate your lineup from what may be a popular Antetokounmpo-DeRozan pairing, Stephenson may offer the highest ceiling among the remaining options.
Fast Break
Iman Shumpert: Following a DNP-CD in Game 1, Shumpert started the second half of Game 2 for the injured Smith. Shumpert played 19 of the 24 second-half minutes as the primary defender on Paul George, and he may start tonight if Smith is ruled out. Shumpert costs $3,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and if he gets all of Smith’s minutes, Shumpert would project to provide close to 20 FanDuel points based on his per-minute production.
Small Forwards
Studs
LeBron James, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard are the studs of this slate. Leonard is the cheapest option, and all three possess a Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent on FanDuel. James and George are expected to play more than 40 minutes for the third straight game. James is the most expensive option on the slate, and he also provides the highest and most stable floor. George offers versatility with dual eligibility at power forward, and Leonard has subsisted on efficient scoring through the first two games thanks to the absence of Tony Allen.
James, George, and Leonard face defenses that have ranked in the bottom-four this postseason, and per the Vegas dashboard, only the Cavs and Pacers are implied to score more than 100 points tonight. All three small forwards presently lead all players on the slate in Projected Plus/Minus, and the decision on how many you choose may be determined by the alternatives at the position and your penchant for risk mitigation at shooting guard. If you spend up on DeRozan and Antetokounmpo for their floors, you may miss out on even greater floors from James, George, and Leonard.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
George: DFS Scouting Report
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Values
The top four players in minutes played this postseason are James, George, Jimmy Butler, and Khris Middleton; they are all averaging at least 41 minutes. Middleton also ranks fourth at his position tonight in per-minute production and salary, clearing the runway for him to be the optimal SF2. If Middleton plays 40 more minutes, the expectation is that he’ll provide around 33 FanDuel points based on his 0.83 FanDuel point-per-minute average. His salary-implied point total is just 23.76 FanDuel points.
Fast Break
James Ennis: Coach David Fizdale promised changes to the starting lineup tonight. Ennis replaced Wayne Selden to start the second half during Game 2, and Ennis provided 24.0 DraftKings points in 26 minutes. Although it’s not official, Ennis appears primed for more minutes in an attempt to contain Kawhi.
Power Forwards
Stud
Serge Ibaka played on a bum ankle in Game 2 and still produced 36.4 FanDuel points in 35.5 minutes. He leads all of the power forwards on this slate in minutes played in the first two games of the playoffs, and he’s received extensive minutes at center, which has allowed him to boost his production with five total blocks. He’s not on the injury report heading into tonight’s contest, which limits the concern for his availability tonight. Ibaka performs better when given at least one day of rest, averaging 30.32 DraftKings points in such circumstances.
Values
Zach Randolph replaced JaMychal Green at the start of the third quarter in Game 2. Green has played limited minutes in the first two games of the series because of foul trouble, and Randolph capitalized in Game 2 with 38.5 DraftKings points in 35.5 minutes. Whether Randolph starts or comes off the bench, Green has demonstrated an inability to remain on the court, allowing Randolph quality minutes as a reserve.
Patrick Patterson costs $2,800 on DraftKings, and after being limited to 16.4 minutes in Game 1, he played 30 minutes in Game 2. His increased minutes came at the expense of DeMarre Carroll, and Patterson provided 22.75 DraftKings points in the last game. It’s unclear if coach Dwane Casey will recycle the same rotation from Tuesday’s win, but if he does, Patterson would offer significant value at 0.67 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Kevin Love: He went from a ghost in the first game to a standout in the second one. He’s the most expensive power forward on the slate, but his projected ownership is lower than some of the cheaper options at the position. If Pacers coach Nate McMillan slips up again and guards Love with Stephenson for stretches, Love could continue to put on a clinic at reduced ownership, which can be confirmed at the Ownership dashboard shortly after lock.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
Centers
Stud
Marc Gasol costs $7,100 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and his production through the first two games has been up and down — 46.8 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 27.0 DraftKings points in Game 2. Randolph and Conley carried the offensive burden on Monday, as they have during the regular season against the Spurs. When Randolph has been on the court this postseason, Gasol has suffered a -7.9 percent effective field goal differential and a -0.09 DraftKings points per-minute differential (per the On/Off tool).
Values
Myles Turner costs $5,500 on DraftKings and comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Now that the series shifts back to Indiana, Turner may provide more value, as he’s been much more productive at Bankers Life Fieldhouse this year:
Tristan Thompson costs $4,600 on FanDuel — a $100 decrease from the first two games of the playoffs. He’s the cheapest center projected to play at least 30 minutes. He hasn’t recorded more than 26 FanDuel points in any game over the last month, limiting his appeal to cash games.
Fast Break
Thon Maker: Here’s a snippet from coach Jason Kidd:
“No one’s guaranteed any minutes. … The way Thon’s playing it’s put John out a little bit, and hopefully we can get John back in.”
Even in Maker’s limited minutes, he’s averaged a +7.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus during the first two games of the series at $2,600 each time. His salary rose to $2,900 on DraftKings for tonight, and he and Greg Monroe will split the majority of the 48 minutes at center. What kept Monroe off the court in the last game was Ibaka sliding up to center, and since it worked well in the last game, Maker and Monroe may play similar minutes.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
