Thursday brings a five-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons
Vegas: 217.5 over/under, Cavs -5
Tyronn Lue is expected to coach the Cavs tonight after missing the previous game with a sinus infection. He wasn’t with the team at shootaround, but he plans to meet the team prior to the game. If he can’t go, assistant coach Larry Drew will coach his second straight game, and during Monday’s loss, LeBron James played 39 minutes and Kyrie Irving played 40 minutes under Drew.
J.R. Smith is officially questionable to return to the lineup, and Kyle Korver has already been ruled out. Smith missed shootaround because of an illness, and if he’s cleared to play, he’ll likely receive Korver’s minutes. He costs $3,500 on DK and FD, and conditioning won’t be an issue after he suffered a fractured right thumb in December.
James doesn’t possess a rosy track record against the Pistons — a resume that includes four playoff games:
Don’t let that distract you from James’ recent production and minutes, however: He’s played at least 37 minutes in five straight games, and the Cavs have had two days off since their last game. He and Kyrie have become the Cavs’ offense with Kevin Love sidelined, and James easily leads a weak small forward group in projected ceiling and floor.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
The Pistons have been solid at home but terrible on the second night of back-to-back sets. Overall, the Pistons are 2-9 on the second night of back-to-backs, their Offensive Rating drops to 97.5, and their Defensive Rating worsens to 108.9. They also lose about three possessions per 48 minutes on their overall pace when playing on consecutive days. Here’s the carnage (via our Trends tool) when the Pistons play with zero days rest:
Andre Drummond’s salary has been reduced to a season-low $6,800 on DraftKings. Among the five ‘My Trends’ I have on Drummond, only one is significantly positive, and that’s when Drummond plays at home this season (+3.70 DraftKings Plus/Minus). When he’s played the Cavs previously, his performance has underwhelmed. Nonetheless, based on his average production against the Cavs (37.0 DK points), he should be able to at least meet value.
Aron Baynes is questionable to play, which could open up minutes for Boban Marjanovic, who recorded 13.75 DK points in 11 minutes last night. The alternative at backup center is Jon Leuer, who’s been largely positive on the second night of back-to-back sets this season. In the three games Baynes missed this season, Marjanovic played twice and averaged 26.13 DK points at minimum salary. In the game Leuer was used as the backup center, Drummond played 40 minutes and recorded 28 points and 22 rebounds, further cementing Drummond’s candidacy should Baynes be unavailable.
In Stan Van Gundy’s revised rotations, Reggie Jackson plays the first six minutes of each quarter and Ish Smith plays the last six minutes of each quarter. That’s subject to change at the end of each half, but for now, both point guards are looking at close to 24 minutes a night. When Jackson is playing well, he’ll get the lion’s share of the minutes at the end of the second and fourth quarter, which reduces Smith’s floor.
Utilizing point guards against the Cavaliers has been a solid tactic this season. Since the beginning of January, point guards projected to play at least 18 minutes have averaged a league-best +7.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 78.6 percent Consistency. In this case, deciding between Jackson and Smith is roughly a difference of $600 in salary. However, Jackson is shooting 31.9 percent from the floor on zero days rest, so this may be a chance to pivot to Smith, who, as I’ve already mentioned, possesses a low floor since he’ll either come in at the six-minute mark of each quarter or not come in at all. It’s a great spot. The problem is in choosing who will see more minutes.
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas: 207 over/under, Grizzlies -2.5
The Clippers are playing their fifth game in seven nights. My general rule of thumb is to fade players in this situation, especially if they’ve played the preceding four games. I don’t believe coach Doc Rivers plans on resting anyone, but the game starts early enough that a late scratch should be announced prior to lineup lock for the main slate.
Chris Paul hasn’t exceeded 33 minutes in the first four games of this stretch, which may have been a preemptive measure to the condensed schedule. If that trend continues tonight, Paul’s ceiling will continue to be impeded. Both he and Blake Griffin have failed to meet salary-based expectations in all five March contests, and in the five games in which the Clippers have been underdogs this season, Paul has failed to match salary-based expectations while averaging 37.05 DraftKings points. Zach Randolph has long been Griffin’s kryptonite, and J.J. Redick has recorded a -1.08 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 44.4 percent Consistency as an underdog and a -0.60 DraftKings Plus/Minus on the second leg of back-to-backs. It’s not an attractive Vegas total, and if all three aren’t playing well together, it’s money down the drain in cash games.
Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, and Chandler Parsons will remain in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. Coach David Fizdale plans to recycle the same lineup he trotted out in the previous game with Andrew Harrison and Brandan Wright starting ahead of Tony Allen and JaMychal Green.
The combination of Conley and Gasol has been dynamite against the Clippers this season:
The Grizzlies have been off for two days prior to this game, which is a distinct advantage when facing a team playing their fifth game in seven nights. Conley and Gasol have done all the heavy lifting in the first unit, especially with Parsons impersonating a basketball player in his limited minutes, and they are neutrally correlated — their production doesn’t negatively or positively affect the other. On a night in which the center and point guard positions are relatively deep, Conley and Gasol stand a reasonable chance of going overlooked.
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas: 210.5 over/under, Spurs -3
The Spurs are playing their fifth game in seven nights. Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge rested last night, so they’ll likely suit up tonight. Kyle Anderson has already been ruled out because of a leg injury, Tony Parker was scratched because of a back issue, and Manu Ginobili is being rested. Pau Gasol played less than 17 minutes last night, and the Spurs also have to worry about Saturday’s game vs. the Warriors.
When the Spurs and Thunder played each other in January, Danny Green guarded Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard guarded Victor Oladipo, and the Spurs hid Tony Parker on Andre Roberson. The Thunder played it straight up except they had Steven Adams on LaMarcus Aldridge and Domantas Sabonis on Dewayne Dedmon.
Now that Parker, Anderson, and Ginobili have been removed from consideration, additional backcourt minutes will likely go to Green, Patty Mills, Dejounte Murray, and Jonathon Simmons. As hinted at in the matchup segment, Green’s minutes will likely be tethered to those of Westbrook, who has averaged 36.8 over the last six. Green rarely exceeds 30 minutes, and in the first meeting, he played 23 minutes.
Per the NBA On/Off tool, here’s how the Spurs grade out on a per-minute basis when Parker, Ginobili, and Anderson are on the bench:
Murray will likely start, but it’s been Mills who has led the Spurs with a +7.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus in the 14 games Parker has missed this season. Both guys cost less than $3,700 on FD and DK, but Mills offers the safer minutes floor.
Aldridge has been a poor investment when the Spurs are favored. However, that directly conflicts with his favorable road Plus/Minus. The issue with the dog/favorite splits is the sample size, and when the Spurs faced the Thunder previously, Aldridge and Leonard combined for 60 of the Spurs’ 108 points while no other player scored more than eight points.
I don’t think anyone has slowed down Kawhi this season. I’m not concerned about the matchup against Roberson, who was limited to 24 minutes in the first meeting between these teams. Leonard hasn’t recorded fewer than 50.0 FD points in four straight games, but he also played at least 39 minutes in three of those — something he had never done in the regular season before. If you project him to get that many minutes tonight, then he’ll be a solid cash-game threat.
Kawhi: DFS Scouting Report
Every time I attempt to find reasons to fade Westbrook, he handily exceeds value. He’s been a lock at home this season, averaging a +10.13 DK Plus/Minus on 83.9 percent Consistency, but the Thunder are underdogs and points guards facing the Spurs this season have provided close to a neutral Plus/Minus. In the first game against the Spurs this season, Westbrook recorded 57.5 DraftKings points and missed out on meeting value by 1.65 points.
Over the past six games, Westbrook’s usage rate of 46.7 percent is 11.4 percent higher than that of the next closest player, and he’s attempted at least 30 shots and 15 free throws in three of the past four games. Based on volume and Westbrook’s salary decrease on DK to $12,500, he’ll remain an elite GPP option.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Since Dewayne Dedmon has taken over as the full-time starting center, the Spurs’ Defensive Rating has been a league-best 96.3 points allowed per 100 possessions, which is roughly six points better than the team ranked second over that time frame. For reference, a six-point gap exists between the team ranked second and the team ranked 20th in the same category. That’s the true downside for relying on too many Thunder players at home.
Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas: 220.5 over/under, Blazers -9.5
Jahlil Okafor is listed questionable but is unlikely to play, and Richaun Holmes and Gerald Henderson are officially probable. Holmes will likely start if Okafor is ruled out, but over the past two starts, he’s played less than 24 minutes and recorded fewer than 20 FD points both times. Justin Harper and Dario Saric are eating into Holmes’ minutes at center, and Saric has been extraordinary during Joel Embiid‘s absence. Power forwards have been solid plays against the Blazers this season, recording a +3.67 FD Plus/Minus when projected to play at least 18 minutes, and Saric is in the mix in all formats.
Update: Okafor will start Thursday. See additional news and analysis at the end of this column.
Justin Anderson has played at least 22 minutes in four straight games, and he’s been the sixth man the past two games. The Sixers have been blown out in both games, and Anderson has played all but three minutes of the last two fourth quarters. He’s a cheap option at shooting guard on DK and small forward on FD, but he claims a shaky floor with Henderson likely to play.
Damian Lillard hasn’t exactly demonstrated value against the Sixers in previous matches:
Nonetheless, he’s been solid since the All-Star break, exceeding 40 DK points in all six games. He provides a solid floor, and with Robert Covington likely guarding C.J. McCollum, Lillard will largely be responsible for the offensive load.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
The Blazers have been exceptional at home this season. Every player who has been projected to play at least 18 minutes has averaged a positive DraftKings Plus/Minus when playing at the Moda Center.
The five players projected for the most minutes on the Blazers possess a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent on FD, led by Maurice Harkless‘ 98 percent Bargain Rating. His salary won’t budge beyond $4,800 despite his recent stretch of sufficient performances. He’s been the epitome of cash money:
Centers facing the Sixers this season have averaged a +4.84 FD Plus/Minus, and in 2017 alone, that number has risen to +6.37 on 72.7 percent Consistency. The major concern in this game is the near double-digit spread, but based on the matchup, Jusuf Nurkic is a solid investment in GPPs.
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns
Vegas: 229 over/under, Suns -5.5
D’Angelo Russell has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in every game since the All-Star break, and he played at least 30 minutes in four straight games for the second time this season. He also gets a sweet matchup in a game in which both teams rank in the top-six in pace and bottom-five in Defensive Rating.
Eric Bledsoe is listed as questionable to play in the Suns’ game notes. In the lone game he sat this season, Brandon Knight started but provided only 2.0 DraftKings points in 20 minutes. Knight has been out of the rotation since the All-Star break, opening the door for Tyler Ulis to get the nod should Bledsoe get ruled out. The game doesn’t begin until three hours after the main slate locks, making Bledsoe and Ulis attractive GPP plays for separate reasons: If Bledsoe plays, he’ll get a great matchup. If he doesn’t, Ulis will likely move into the starting lineup and absorb all of Bledsoe’s duties.
Alan Williams will likely continue to play more minutes than Alex Len, who has averaged 25.25 DraftKings points in 10 games against the Lakers. Williams’ salary has exceeded Len’s, leaving the latter as more of a thin punt play on DK at $4,100. Williams will continue to be chalk despite an increase in salary, and this trend is a large reason why:
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
