Thursday brings a five-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons
Vegas: 211.5 over/under, Pistons -6
The Nets are going for the season series sweep, and Reggie Jackson will remain inactive.
Brook Lopez has averaged +10.02 FanDuel Plus/Minus in his last five games against the Pistons. Barring a dreaded DNP-rest, he’ll make for a sturdy option in cash games, especially comparing him to others in his salary range.
Quincy Acy won’t play, and it’s likely Sean Kilpatrick will face a minute restrictions following an extended absence with a hamstring injury. Outside of Lopez, Jeremy Lin has been the lone constant in the rotation with predictable and steady minutes. Since Acy has split his playing time at backup center and power forward, Trevor Booker and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson may see an increase in playing time, or we may get reintroduced to Justin Hamilton and Andrew Nicholson. It’s unclear how coach Kenny Atkinson will balance the rotation, which ultimately shifts the Nets’ value into punt play territory in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), as seven of the 11 — yes, 11 — players projected for minutes in the Phan Model cost less than $4,000 on FanDuel. Hollis-Jefferson has posted 31.2, 32.4, 32.1, and 31.4 FanDuel points in the past four games, but you can’t guarantee that he’ll receive more than 20 minutes, even with Acy unavailable.
When Jackson has been on the court this season, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has converted 38.7 percent of his field-goal attempts. When Ish Smith has been on the court, Caldwell-Pope’s accuracy has improved to 41.3 percent. More importantly, Caldwell-Pope has averaged 0.25 more DraftKings points per minute with Jackson on the bench and a +5.8 percent effective field goal differential since the beginning of 2017.
Every shooting guard projected to play at least 30 minutes against the Nets this season has averaged a combined 80 percent Consistency on FanDuel. When Caldwell-Pope has played in a game with a pace differential between +3.0 and +7.3, he’s averaged a +6.68 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70.4 percent Consistency. Caldwell-Pope, despite his inconsistencies this season, may be a valid value play at shooting guard. It’s the vacillating production that has cemented him a better GPP play.
The Pistons featured Tobias Harris heavily when they faced the Nets on March 21st. The Nets used Caris LeVert as the primary defender on Harris, who utilized his size advantage in the post frequently. On the other end, the Pistons played straight up with Harris on Hollis-Jefferson and Marcus Morris on LeVert. Harris was moved back to a reserve in the most recent contest, which will likely force LeVert on Morris — an advantageous matchup for the Pistons.
When the Pistons have been favored at home, Andre Drummond has averaged 37.84 FanDuel points on 67.9 percent Consistency, and Morris has provided a +5.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 60.7 percent Consistency. Morris has been woeful the past 10 games, averaging a -4.51 FanDuel Plus/Minus, but that deterioration has dropped his salary to $4,900. Assuming the Pistons feature him the way they featured Harris on LeVert last time out, Morris should be a solid bet to meet salary-based expectations. Morris also leads all players on the slate with a +6.12 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Smith is likely looking at close to 30 minutes in an up-tempo game, and after posting 38.4 FanDuel points against the Nets last Tuesday in 28 minutes, he’ll be the chalk play in cash games on FanDuel.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls
Vegas: 211 over/under, Cavs -5.5
The Cavs are playing the first game of a five-game-in-seven-night excursion. Following Wednesday’s practice, coach Tyronn Lue confirmed all the healthy players will be available and no one will rest.
LeBron James is still dealing with eye issues, and his salary decreased to $10,100 for the first time since late January. Coach Lue doesn’t plan to lower James’ minutes quite yet, which means he could get up to 40 should the game remain close. When James has played at least 37 minutes over the past month, he’s averaged 60.3 DraftKings points per game — a far cry from today’s salary-implied point total of 48.15. He’s a safe option at a shaky position, and he leads all players in projected ownership in GPPs on both platforms despite the recent poor performance largely driven by blowout losses.
James: DFS Scouting Report
The rest of the Cavs supporting cast has been adequate recently, but none of them have provided solid value in GPPs. Kevin Love‘s minute limitation appears to have dissolved, and Iman Shumpert leads the non-LeBron Cavs with a +2.30 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the past 10 games.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
The Bulls are going for the season series sweep and have been off for three straight days. They have also won 19 straight home games when broadcasted on TNT.
Jimmy Butler and Rajon Rondo have led the Bulls in average FanDuel points per game in three games against the Cavs this season. They’ve both exceeded salary-based expectations in every game, and Butler has recorded a double-double in four straight games for the first time in his career. He hasn’t dipped below 45.0 FanDuel points in six straight games — all with Dwyane Wade (elbow) sidelined. Even though the Bulls are implied for a total of 103.75 points, no Cleveland opponent has scored fewer than 103 points in the last six games, and most have exceeded 110.
Butler is cheaper than James on both sites, and Butler’s recent performance makes him the perfect pivot off James. With Wade sidelined, Butler has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute, up from his yearly-mark of 1.2, and he leads the Bulls with a 35 percent assist rate. James has been consistent enough to rely on in cash games, and Butler has been spectacular enough lately to ride in GPPs for the ownership advantage.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Michael Carter-Williams is currently the backup point guard, a status that is subject to change. He also costs the minimum on DraftKings. His recent production has been abysmal, but at $3,000, his salary-implied point total is just 12.65.
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas: 217.5 over/under, Timberwolves -10.5
Over the past 10 games, the Timberwolves and Lakers rank 29th and 30th in Defensive Rating. During that same span, they’ve ranked in the bottom-two in opponent fastbreak points per game and bottom-three in opponent points in the paint per game. This bodes well for the Lakers, as they also rank first in points in the paint on a per-game basis and second in fastbreak points over the last 10 games.
Julius Randle, Ivica Zubac, and Jordan Clarkson have all averaged 9.0 points in the paint during the past 10 games, and Randle leads the team with 3.3 fastbreak points over that time frame. Clarkson has received steady minutes and scored a career-high 35 actual points against the Timberwolves last Friday on a career-high and (likely unsustainable) eight 3-pointers. During this recent 10-game stretch, Clarkson ranks second in minutes per game at 38.0, sandwiched between Karl-Anthony Towns (38.6) and Andrew Wiggins (37.9). Clarkson, Zubac, and D’Angelo Russell provide a Bargain Rating of at least 93 percent on FanDuel, and in a game with deplorable defenses, all three are in consideration in GPPs. Clarkson has been the most consistent Laker over the past month, registering 92 percent Consistency — the third-highest mark at his position on the slate.
When faced with a negative Opponent Plus/Minus, Randle has averaged 33.65 DraftKings points on 63.3 percent Consistency. More importantly, he produced 49 DraftKings points against the Wolves last Friday. Randle is the definition of a GPP play, and he’s posted -11.9 and -11.15 DraftKings Plus/Minus marks over the past two games.
Wiggins has been unstoppable against the Lakers this season: He averaged 41.5 actual points in the previous two meetings, as well as 13.5 free throw attempts per game and a season-high 34.2 percent usage rate. Converting that to the DFS landscape, Wiggins averaged a +24.16 FanDuel Plus/Minus in those games. He can be maddening to roster when he’s not scoring, but he’s proven he can convert when facing the Lakers this season.
Over the past two seasons, Ricky Rubio has recorded 55.5, 34.8, 37.5, 37.0, and 54.3 DraftKings points in five games against the Lakers. Over the past month, he leads all points guards with 100 percent Consistency on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’ll be a strong pivot option when compared to players in his salary range.
Kris Dunn has received at least 24 minutes in four straight games, and the increase in playing time has largely come at the expense of Brandon Rush. Dunn is an inexpensive option at $3,900 on both platforms, and he’s recorded a combined 11 steals over the past four games. The Lakers have ranked 25th in turnovers per game over the last 15 games, and opponents are averaging 8.3 steals per game during that span. Dunn posted 33.25 DraftKings points against the Lakers last week in 34.52 minutes, and even if he gets 20-25 minutes, he’ll be in a good position to pay back his salary.
Of all the positions projected to play at least 18 minutes, centers facing the Lakers have averaged the best Plus/Minus (+6.35) and Consistency (76.3 percent) this season. That’s the alarm to fire up Towns. He possesses a 90 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he has the highest projected ownership at his position. He leads all players on the slate with a +4.81 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings, but his salary is a bit cumbersome at a position that offers plenty of value. Loading up on Towns would likely require shunning other high-salaried players with lesser matchups:
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
Vegas: 220 over/under, Clippers -9.5
The Clippers are the only team playing on the second night of a back-to-back. This is a game in which Clippers starters could rest, and Austin Rivers has already been ruled out due to a hamstring injury.
Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick, and Marreese Speights have met salary-based expectations in each of their games against the Suns this year. Paul was limited to one appearance and Griffin missed one of the three meetings — two absences that likely skews the data.
Over the past three seasons, Jordan has averaged 38.45 DraftKings points on 70 percent Consistency when facing the Suns, and Griffin has recorded fewer than 41 DraftKings points on two of eight chances. The 10-point spread is concerning, as is the fact that Griffin, Paul, and Jordan all played at least 37 minutes last night. They offer solid floors, and both Griffin and Jordan possess Bargain Ratings of at least 86 percent on DraftKings.
Points guards facing the Suns have eclipsed all other matchups at the position over the span of the season in average Plus/Minus. That’s right: The Nuggets no longer yield the highest Plus/Minus to opposing point guards projected to play at least 18 minutes. Even if Paul plays just 30 minutes, he should barely exceed salary-based expectations on FanDuel at 1.25 FanDuel points per minute.
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
Griffin: DFS Scouting Report
Jordan: DFS Scouting Report
The recent Suns games have played out similarly: The Suns get down big early (generally by 20-30 points), and then the opposing team stops caring, allowing the Suns to crawl back into the game. Phoenix opponents have scored at least 120 points in three of the past four games, and since the Suns shut down Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, and Tyson Chandler, they have ranked 29th in offensive efficiency, scoring 95.0 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also ranked first in pace over the last eight games, recording 106.74 possessions per 48 minutes.
It’s unclear if Devin Booker or Leandro Barbosa will suit up this evening. If they can’t go, Derrick Jones Jr. will likely remain in the starting lineup, and both Tyler Ulis and T.J. Warren will come close to 40 minutes. Ulis offers a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but many of the Suns are priced as if they’re down to nine available players (as they have been in many of their previous games).
Jared Dudley has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games on FanDuel at mimimum salary. He and Warren will require immediate consideration should Booker be ruled out, and Warren has averaged a +9.39 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the past 10 games on 80 percent Consistency.
Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas: 230 over/under, Rockets -1.5
This game is the main event. It features two teams in the playoff hunt (although the Rockets are virtually locked into the No. 3 seed) and the highest Vegas total and lowest spread on the slate.
Montrezl Harrell and Ryan Anderson remain out, leaving Eric Gordon as the likely replacement in the starting lineup for the third straight match.
Over the past 10 games, Clint Capela has averaged a +6.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency. He costs $5,600 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and his recent stretch warrants consideration in cash games as a low-cost center.
Lou Williams has played at least 30 minutes in the past two games sans Anderson, and in the three games Anderson has missed since Williams joined the team, Lou has recorded a team-best +10.9 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Coach Mike D’Antoni stripped his rotation down to eight players over the last two games, and Sam Dekker has seen the biggest rise in playing time. Williams experienced the second-biggest jump in playing time, and with Gordon in the first unit, Williams attempted double-digit shot attempts in consecutive games for the first time since mid-March.
James Harden may be the lock of the slate as long as he doesn’t rest to help accelerate the healing of his hurt left wrist. In the last nine games against the Blazers, Harden has averaged 64.44 DraftKings points. In those games, he’s failed to meet today’s salary-implied point total of 59.65 DraftKings points on just two occasions.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
The DraftKings Plus/Minus marks for Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum against the Rockets this season are quite different:
- Lillard: 36.5 DraftKings points, -7.40 Plus/Minus
- McCollum: 41.0 DraftKings points, +5.60 Plus/Minus
Trevor Ariza was the primary defender on Lillard in the most recent contest, allowing Patrick Beverley to slide over to McCollum. The matchups were reversed in the first game of the year, and both of the previous meetings occurred in November. McCollum appears to be the safer option of the two, and Lillard’s value is presently tethered to cash games thanks to his 100 percent Consistency over the past month.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
Maurice Harkless’ recent production and playing time have resulted in a $1,500 decrease in his DraftKings salary. A -7.78 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 10 percent Consistency over the past 10 games will do that. However, Harkless has been the primary defender on Harden in their prior matchups, and assuming that elevates Harkless’ playing time for one game, he’ll make for a sneaky punt play at $3,900 after posting 6.0 DraftKings points in less than 15 minutes on Tuesday. At $3,500 on FanDuel, he’ll be a fine punt play after averaging 25.23 FanDuel points in the last six games against the Rockets.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
