Thursday brings a five-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets
Vegas: 226 over/under, Nets -4.5
The Suns and Nets have ranked top-five in pace since the All-Star break, and this game offers the highest Vegas total at 226 points. The Nets are favored for the fourth time all season, and the Suns could have as little as eight players available.
Alex Len played 36 minutes and Marquese Chriss played a career-high 38 minutes while doubling as the backup center Tuesday with Alan Williams unavailable. Williams expects to play tonight. However, if he is unable to play, Len is cheap on DraftKings at $4,500 and would be a solid bet to hit his salary-implied point total of 20.15 points — a mark he’s cleared in three straight contests. Chriss’ salary is at an all-time high on FanDuel at $5,100, but power forward selection is unenviable on this five-game slate.
Chriss’ post-All-Star break stats are up across the board with the exception of fouls per 36 minutes, which has mercifully decreased from 5.9 prior to the break to 5.2 since the break. It’s not a drastic difference, but Chriss has played at least 23 minutes in 10 straight games. Some of that is attributed to the lack of options on the bench and some of that is credited to fewer fouls.
Tyler Ulis has played at least 40 minutes in three straight games, and that’s mainly due to the lack of depth in the backcourt. Should Ronnie Price remain sidelined, Ulis can easily exceed 40 minutes. If Price is cleared to play, Ulis may still play 40 minutes. His minutes floor may be the highest of anyone on this slate, and he gets a great matchup. At the point guard spot, Ulis may be the chalk option simply for his safety.
Devin Booker is playing through an ankle injury and has converted 13-of-55 shots in the past three games. While he may seem like a decent option at a thin shooting guard position, he’s clearly laboring and has already missed one game with the injury. If you’re looking for pivots on his team (not at the same position), T.J. Warren has averaged 38.4 minutes per game over the last four games as well as a team-best 33.88 FanDuel points. Considering his FanDuel implied point total is 26.84 points, he’ll be a popular option at small forward. Warren has actually ranked seventh in usage rate (18.4 percent) on his team over the last four games, and his production has been helped by seven blocks and steals since Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight were shut down. Auspiciously, opponents average a league-high 9.6 steals and 5.7 blocks per game when facing the Nets this season.
The Nets won’t have a shootaround today, meaning we won’t get an update on Jeremy Lin‘s status until closer to lock. He’s officially probable after suffering a sprained right ankle two games ago. Coach Kenny Atkinson will have four point guards to juggle if Lin is cleared to play, and Lin’s salary remains friendly on DraftKings at $5,600. The main concerns are a potential minute limitation as well as the point guard depth. Prior to the injury, Lin had exceeded salary-based expectations in eight consecutive games while playing between 21 and 29 minutes. In a favorable matchup between two high-paced teams, Lin’s ownership should be high.
Brook Lopez has been exceptional lately:
Over the past 21 games, he’s averaged a +4.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 81 percent Consistency. Barring a night of rest — which has happened once all season at home — Lopez will offer immense safety in cash games.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson recorded a season-high 46.25 DraftKings points against the Suns back in November. He scored a career-high 20 points and pulled down 13 rebounds as the small forward. Now that he’s playing at power forward, he’s fighting for playing time with Quincy Acy, Trevor Booker, and K.J. McDaniels. Hollis-Jefferson costs $4,400 on DraftKings (PF only) and $4,300 on FanDuel (SF only), and since we’re all at the mercy of Atkinson’s rotations, Hollis-Jefferson may be better utilized in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) despite the artificial minute cap of 30.
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Vegas: 201.5 over/under, Heat -4.5
Serge Ibaka will serve his one-game suspension tonight, leaving a void at starting power forward. The game prior to the All-Star break, DeMarre Carroll started at power forward and Norman Powell moved into the starting lineup. Since the Heat start Luke Babbitt at power forward, Carroll may be tasked with being the nominal power forward in order to keep the bench unit intact. Alternative options include Jakob Poeltl, who started at power forward the two games before Ibaka was acquired, P.J. Tucker, or Patrick Patterson, who will likely play most of the power forward minutes regardless of who gets named the starter.
With Ibaka off the court, the Raptors’ Defensive Rating is a team-best 93.3 points allowed per 100 possessions, and since the All-Star break, the Raptors have averaged 98.94 possessions per 48 minutes with Ibaka on the bench, roughly three possessions more than their team average since acquiring Ibaka and losing Kyle Lowry to injury.
On a per-minute basis, here’s how the Raptors stack up without Ibaka (per our NBA On/Off tool):
Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute, but the Raptors’ pace becomes a crawl at 91.16 possessions per 48 minutes. DeMar DeRozan has experienced a +10.3 percent usage rate differential, although attempting 38 shots in the previous game may have inflated that number. Prior to Tuesday’s overtime win, DeRozan recorded a +6.5 percent usage rate differential minus Ibaka. Patterson has averaged a team-worst 0.62 DraftKings points per minute sans Ibaka, withdrawing him from serious consideration.
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
The Raptors have struggled over the past 14 games with a few notable exceptions:
Cory Joseph and Valanciunas have led the Raptors in Consistency on DraftKings since the All-Star break, and Joseph’s salary remains serviceable. However, he was limited to 10.75 DraftKings points against the Heat on March 11th in a game the Raptors fell behind early and never recovered.
Twenty-one. That’s the total number of fourth quarter minutes Valanciunas has played since the All-Star break. Five of those were recorded after Ibaka was ejected on Tuesday, but it was Tucker and Patterson who closed the final 12 minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime at power forward and center. Valanciunas’ salary on DraftKings has increased to $5,200 for the first time since the first game following the trade deadline. He’s in a good spot since he’ll likely see an increase in playing time, and the last time the Raptors faced the Heat, he provided 23.5 DraftKings points in 21 minutes. If you’re looking to spend down at center, Valanciunas may be the route to go.
Hassan Whiteside’s status will determine Willie Reed’s utility as value play. Whiteside is officially probable after receiving 13 stitches between his middle and ring fingers on his right hand on Tuesday. He missed three games two seasons ago after suffering the same exact injury, but he cited pain tolerance as the reason for sitting out. Whiteside participated in shootaround and intends to play. Due to the location of the injury, Whiteside profiles as more of a GPP option. He was limited to working with just his left hand at shootaround, and his right hand will likely be heavily padded this evening.
Whiteside: DFS Scouting Report
Here’s an ominous tweet:
Hassan Whiteside says he has "an open mind" about tonight and that he will decide whether he can play later.
— Tim Reynolds (@ByTimReynolds) March 23, 2017
If Whiteside can’t play, Reed will become the chalk value play. In the five games Whiteside missed earlier this season, Reed recorded a team-best +12.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 28.5 minutes as the lone healthy center on the roster. James Johnson and Okaro White could see additional minutes as the backup center, and Johnson recorded 32.23 FanDuel points sans Whiteside earlier this season. Johnson’s present FanDuel salary-implied point total rests at 24.64 points.
Dion Waiters remains out, leaving Josh Richardson as the likely starting shooting guard and a viable option at a weak position. Richardson has played at least 31 minutes in three straight games, and he’s scored double-digit points in consecutive contests for the first time since January. Wayne Ellington is expected to play following the birth of his son yesterday, and if he’s ruled out, Richardson’s playing time will become even more solidified.
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
Vegas: 204 over/under, Clippers -4.5
DeAndre Jordan has averaged 39.86 DraftKings points in the last nine games against the Mavericks. His salary-implied point total today is 31.15 DraftKings points. Conversely, Chris Paul has averaged a -5.55 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the last eight games against the Mavericks, and Blake Griffin has been close to neutral in his five games.
Jordan may have the most favorable matchup of the three:
That presumes the Mavericks don’t rest anyone or move Nerlens Noel into the starting lineup. They rank 29th in rebound rate since the All-Star break and last overall since Dirk Nowitzki became the full-time starting center on January 29th. Jordan provides a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and at a position littered with viable alternatives, Jordan’s potential ceiling will situate him well in GPPs. The Milwaukee Bucks have ranked 28th in rebound rate since the All-Star break, and Jordan recorded 50.75 DraftKings points against them on March 15th while corralling 17 rebounds. The next game out against the Cavs — ranked 26th in rebound rate over the same time frame — Jordan grabbed 17 rebounds and registered 40.75 DraftKings points in 26.6 minutes.
DeAndre: DFS Scouting Report
The Mavs have started to spiral over the last two months, and since the beginning of February, they’ve ranked 29th in average DraftKings Plus/Minus for players projected to play at least 18 minutes. Wesley Matthews has made 32.8 percent of his shots in March, and Harrison Barnes is starting to look worn out after playing a career-high 2,525 minutes this season.
Over the past 22 games, Nowitzki and Yogi Ferrell have been the only Mavs in the rotation with positive DraftKings Plus/Minus values.
Ferrell’s salary has dropped to $4,000 on DraftKings — the lowest for a projected starting point guard — and he’s exceeded 17.65 DraftKings points — his salary-implied point total — in 11 of the past 13 games while receiving between 22 and 32 minutes per game. Since J.J. Barea returned from injury, Ferrell has played more than 30 minutes just twice. Nowitzki has been the most consistent Maverick since the beginning of February; although he’ll be placed in an obvious mismatch, Jordan is not one to venture out to the 3-point line on defense, potentially yielding plenty of wide open shots to Nowitzki.
Seth Curry was reportedly dealing with a sore left shoulder following Tuesday’s loss, but he hasn’t appeared on the Mavs’ injury report. His recent production makes me believe the problem is with his right shoulder since he’s made 39.5 percent of his attempts over the past six games. His salary has suffered a dramatic decrease on DraftKings to $4,800, but based on his recent slump, Curry might be a 50/50 proposition to meet today’s salary-implied point total.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
Vegas: 198 over/under, Spurs -8.5
These teams played against each other last Saturday, and the Grizzlies emerged with an eight-point win.
The Grizzlies have won four of their last five games and held each opponent below 97 points. Their resurgence coincides with Chandler Parsons’ absence, and the Grizzlies have ranked last in pace during that short span with 92.17 possessions per 48 minutes.
Mike Conley has averaged 35.66 FanDuel points on 100 percent Consistency in his last eight games against the Spurs. Marc Gasol hasn’t met salary-based expectations in six straight contests versus the Spurs, and Tony Allen has recorded 25 percent Consistency over the past 12 games.
It’s time to update the Conley and Gasol underdog trends:
Conley: DFS Scouting Report
This may be a spot to fade Gasol based on his last performance against the Spurs and focus more shares on Zach Randolph, who was instrumental during Saturday’s win. Randolph’s salary has been reduced to a season-low $4,700 on DraftKings, and when the Grizzlies have been implied to score fewer than 100 points, Randolph leads the team with a +4.43 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 77.8 percent Consistency this season.
Allen is officially questionable to play as he deals with a left knee issue. His availability will likely determine this game, as he helped limit Kawhi Leonard to 36.75 DraftKings points less than a week ago.
Leonard converted 4-of-11 shots when Allen was on the court last time out, and the Grizzlies’ defense is miles better when Allen is available.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
LaMarcus Aldridge is the only Spur to meet salary-based expectations in both games against the Grizzlies this season on DraftKings. The power forward player pool isn’t crawling with obvious plays, but as a pivot off Leonard if Allen is healthy, Aldridge could be a nice play in GPPs. Aldridge has exceeded 30.15 DraftKings points in six of the past eight contests, and he’s attempted 24 shots in three of those games.
New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas: 215.5 over/under, Blazers -12
The Knicks are the only team on this slate playing on the second night of a back-to-back set. That means they won’t convene at shootaround, and we likely won’t know the status of Derrick Rose until coach Jeff Hornacek addresses the media pre-game. Rose injured his right foot during Wednesday’s loss, but he was able to return to the game briefly.
Can I interest you in some Ronald Delaine Baker?
Hornacek doesn’t plan to rest the Knicks’ veterans until the front office forces his hand, which will likely occur when the Knicks are mathematically eliminated from postseason contention. However, Hornacek plans to limit minutes for the vets, namely Carmelo Anthony. Could both Rose and Anthony be given a night of rest? It’s possible since Anthony played a team-high 36 minutes last night. In fact, all five starters exceeded 31 minutes, contradicting Hornacek’s declaration of reducing minutes for players like Anthony, Rose, and Courtney Lee.
Anthony costs $6,500 on FanDuel. It’s his lowest salary on FanDuel in our database — a 177-game sample. Is it a trap? Anthony has averaged 35.38 FanDuel points in his last five games against the Blazers. In the five games the Knicks have been double-digit underdogs on the road, Anthony has been largely absent:
Add in his overall performance lately as ‘Triangle Melo,’ and we may see ‘Rest Melo’ tonight. Anthony has pronounced home/road splits, but his FanDuel average in road games is higher than today’s salary-implied point total. And if you exclude the two road games in which he was ejected in the first half and the road game against the Rockets when he sat the entire second half, his splits aren’t as detrimental:
Where Anthony is most susceptible is on the second night of back-to-back sets:
Ultimately, how low does Anthony’s salary have to drop for you to be comfortable rostering him, and is he cash-viable on the second leg of a back-to-back as a double-digit underdog if Rose is unable to play? It also matters how many minutes you think Hornacek will give him, and if you think he’ll revert to ‘Iso Melo’ sans Rose.
Carmelo: DFS Scouting Report
Speaking of Rose, here’s a per-minute breakdown of when he and Brandon Jennings have been off the court since the All-Star break:
You’ll notice Anthony’s usage rate of 20.7 percent and Baker’s per-minute production pails in comparison to that of Chasson Randle. Baker will likely start if Rose doesn’t play, and both Baker and Rankle cost the minimum on DraftKings. Baker is point guard- and shooting guard-eligible, and in the games Rose missed earlier this season, Baker recorded a team-best 19.1 percent assist rate among current players.
Since joining the Blazers, Jusuf Nurkic has averaged 37.5 DraftKings points in 15 games. The Knicks have allowed the most second-chance points and fifth-most points in the paint since the All-Star break, and after the performance Rudy Gobert had last night, it will be difficult to fade Nurkic in such a plus matchup. Centers facing the Knicks have been prolific this season:
The overview of the individual performances for Blazers players since the All-Star break has been favorable to Nurkic and Damian Lillard. Lillard has been playing too well lately to completely fade in cash games. The spread is concerning, and it’s the second time all season the Blazers have been favored by double digits. In the previous game, Lillard recorded 41.5 FanDuel points in 36 minutes, and over the past month Lillard leads all projected starting point guards with 100 percent Consistency on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
Ed Davis is out for the season, and Meyers Leonard‘s minute have been scaled back as he basically plays on one leg due to right hip pain, leaving Noah Vonleh as the starting power forward and backup center. Leonard has played 6.5, 2.8, 6.3, and 7.2 minutes in the last four contests, and Vonleh has played at least 26 minutes in four straight games for the first time in his career. His salary is $3,800 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he makes for a decent PF2 just based on his minutes stability.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
