Thursday brings a five-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic
Vegas: 209.5 over/under, Magic -5.5
The 76ers are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and will be without stud big man Joel Embiid yet again. They continue to be a very poor team without him, especially on defense: Although they are ranked a respectable 16th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 106.0 points per 100 possessions, that number dips all the way down to 112.0. That would easily be the league’s worst mark over a full season:
Jahlil Okafor had a nice game last night, putting up 33.6 FanDuel points in 24.7 minutes. However, that was largely due to hitting 10-of-11 free throws. Even when Okafor has been efficient from the field, he’s been unable to post high-ceiling games because of his limited minutes and usage rate. He has a solid +4.32 Opponent Plus/Minus against a Magic team that has been poor versus opposing big men, but Okafor just doesn’t have a ceiling high enough to target in guaranteed prize pools.
Although Okafor is the popular Embiid substitute when he’s out, there are a couple other Sixers who see a nice bump in value without the big man:
Robert Covington and Ersan Ilyasova have led the team with 28.0 DraftKings points and Plus/Minus values of +4.6 and +4.7 in games sans Embiid this year. The latter has really struggled of late, which has coincided with his minutes dipping below 30 per game, but Covington has excelled recently:
Over his last 10 games he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of them and has averaged a robust +8.72 FD Plus/Minus. He’s consistently getting the most minutes, and while his matchup versus the Philly wings is perhaps only neutral Covington provides a nice floor and ceiling at a position largely bereft of both.
Aaron Gordon has been ruled out tonight with a right foot bone bruise (per our NBA News feed). When he’s been off the floor, big men Nikola Vucevic and Serge Ibaka have increased their usage rates by 2.2 and 2.1 percentage points. Vooch is coming off a huge game in which he dropped 49.8 FD points in only 30 minutes against the Rockets, and he’s an elite GPP option today against the Embiid-less 76ers: He owns a high +5.88 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Take out the blowout loss to the Hawks, and Ibaka has been consistently great for his mid-tier price tag:
He’s quietly had a phenomenal shooting season in Orlando . . .
. . . and is a solid play, especially at $6,000 on FD, where he has 11 Pro Trends (in our Player Models) and a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Evan Fournier‘s value could certainly be hampered by Gordon’s absence given the perimeter matchups. Covington has turned into one of the best wing defenders in the league this season: He ranks first among all eligible small forwards with a +3.54 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. While Covington would have played the majority of his minutes checking Gordon, there’s a solid chance he’ll slide down to guard Fournier instead of whoever takes Gordon’s starting spot. Fournier has resumed his heavy minute loads, playing at least 32 in each of his last three games.
Also, if Elfrid Payton can’t get it going against the worst defense in the league, when will he?
Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets
Vegas: 224.5 over/under, Rockets -4
This game boasts the slate’s highest Vegas total at 224.5 points. The biggest news for this contest is that the Hornets will see the return of Cody Zeller, who has been perhaps their most important player this season: He ranks ninth among all centers this year with a +2.72 Real Plus-Minus. He’s missed the past seven games and the Hornets have lost six of those seven, their only win coming against the lowly 9-44 Nets.
James Harden is priced way up at $12,300 DK and $12,600 FD, and it’s likely that he’ll be lower-owned than the similarly-priced Russell Westbrook, who will get a Cavaliers squad at home without LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love. Harden has an absolutely massive ceiling — he’s put up 65-plus FD points in three of his last six games — and he absolutely torched the Hornets in their first meeting this year:
This seems like a tough matchup on paper — the Hornets own a top-10 defense and have elite wing defender Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to throw at Harden — but, as you can tell, Harden has the ability to torch any defender. That said, it’s important to note that Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller were both out for that first meeting. Harden will likely still draw MKG, but those two guys should improve the Hornets’ help defense.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Harden has minimal correlation with his teammates this year . . .
. . . and that held true in their first meeting:
Most of the Rockets’ main guys are in play given the small slate, but Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley have played the best recently. That said, it has actually been Sam Dekker, Ryan Anderson, and even Eric Gordon who have performed the best this season as road favorites:
And don’t forget about Clint Capela, who oddly remains only $5,200 FD despite crushing value lately.
Like Harden, Kemba Walker had a perceived tough matchup in the first meeting against Beverley, but he torched it:
That said, with Batum and Zeller now back in the fold, it’s unlikely that Kemba will use 33.0 percent of the Hornets’ possessions or post a ridiculous 41.7 percent assist rate, as he did in the first game. He’s a fine GPP option, especially on FD, where his $7,500 comes with 12 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating, but that first game is not this current one. #CaptainObvious
Here’s what our News feed has to say about Zeller and the Charlotte frontcourt rotation:
It’s fine to have exposure to Zeller, Marvin Williams, and MKG, but there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the rotation and minutes of these guys.
The one guy we’re missing here is Batum, who put up 42.6 FD points last game against the Nets but has been somewhat uninspiring lately outside of that:
However, he has a +1.53 Opponent Plus/Minus today and has been much better with Zeller playing than not:
Per the NBA On/Off tool, Batum has a -12.4 net rating differential in games sans Zeller. That’s a comical difference highlighting the importance of Zeller to nearly everyone on this team.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas: 210 over/under, Thunder -8
As mentioned above, the Cavs are unlikely to play LeBron, Kyrie, and Love tonight on the second leg of a back-to-back. If you were wondering why the Cavs moved from a one-point road favorite when the line opened to currently a nine-point dog, there’s your reason.
Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo, and company are fine plays given their price points and the depleted Cavs roster, but let’s just get right into Russell Westbrook. There was a lot to like about Westbrook even before the Cavs’ three best players were listed as doutbful. The Cavs have been awful defending PGs all season, and they now rank second in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to the position over the full year:
And it’s been even worse lately. Since January 1st, they’ve easily been the worst team in the league against PGs:
Now let me play devil’s advocate. In the one game this year in which the Big 3 together sat out, the Cavs played at a snail-like pace.
Tristan Thompson led the team with 28.5 minutes in that game, and when he was on the floor, they averaged only 86.79 possessions per 48 minutes. For reference, the slowest three teams in the league — Utah, Dallas, and Memphis — average a much faster pace than that.
Westbrook can have a massive performance in a slow-pace game, but just note that the Cavaliers will likely do their absolute best to limit possessions.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
As you can tell by the image above, the best values in that first game were James Jones and Kay Felder, who started at PG in Kyrie’s absence. Kyle Korver has taken over Jones’ role, and he and Felder are solid options, especially at only $3,900 and $3,000 DK. Channing Frye, Jordan McRae, and Thompson will also be popular given their near-minimum price tags, but just be wary that this will be a slow game and the Cavaliers could really struggle to score. Playing a guy in an expanded role at a low price tag is usually the recipe for success, but it can backfire when he’s not at all suited for that role.
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Vegas: 192.5 over/under, Jazz -3.5
The two slowest-paced teams play each other tonight, and so it’s no surprise that the Vegas total is an incredibly low 192.5 points.
Deron Williams has been ruled out again, which means that Yogi Ferrell will continue to start in his place. He’s been solid in the six games with Williams, posting 29.8 DK points and an +8.7 Plus/Minus in 36.6 minutes per game . . .
. . . but this is an absolutely brutal matchup against a Jazz team that ranks third in defensive efficiency, allowing only 101.5 points per 100 possessions. We know that pace is incredibly important for DFS success, and when you combine that with solid defense — well, it’s likely no surprise that every player in this game projected for at least 20 minutes has a highly-negative Opponent Plus/Minus.
There’s a sliver of hope for Yogi — the Jazz have been the fourth-worst team since January 1st against opposing PGs — but given his now-elevated $5,700 price tag and the slow pace of this game, he’s a dart throw at best.
If you’re taking a chance on guys in this game, look toward Wesley Matthews on the Mavs’ side. He’s been excellent lately . . .
. . . and is still reasonably-priced, especially on DK, where his $5,400 salary comes with nine Pro Trends and a 66 percent Bargain Rating.
On the Jazz side, Gordon Hayward has continued to shoot the ball well lately . . .
. . . and Rudy Gobert gets a Dallas team that ranks dead last in rebound rate, grabbing only 46.2 percent of the boards this year. Gobert has at least 15 rebounds in three of his last four games and has immense upside in this matchup. He’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership given the value plays at the position.
Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas: 220 over/under, Blazers -1
It’s the battle of two elite offensive PGs who struggle to defend in Damian Lillard and Isaiah Thomas. The latter has come back to earth a bit lately:
Further, he’s been priced way up to $10,000 DK and $8,500 FD. That said, this is an elite matchup against a Portland team that ranks 10th in pace, averaging 99.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.7 points per 100 possessions.
Dame also has an elite matchup, as Thomas has been the absolute worst PG in the league this year defensively. He ranks 86th out of 86 eligible PGs with a -4.48 Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
He’s posted 46.0 FD points in each of his last two games in tough matchups and is still only $8,500 on FD, where he has 10 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. His ownership will likely be kept under control because of Westbrook’s presence in this slate, but he’ll still be (rightfully) incredibly chalky.
Jae Crowder has been a cash-game mainstay over the past month, but he finally put up a dud in his last outing, scoring only 13.4 FD points in 32.1 minutes on 0-of-6 shooting from the field. Still, he’s averaged a +5.00 FD Plus/Minus over his past 10 games and brings a lot of safety at the volatile SF position.
On the Portland wing, Al-Farouq Aminu has channeled his inner Crowder lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging a +3.55 DK Plus/Minus over that time frame. At only $5,300 DK and $5,400 FD, he’s firmly in the mix for all contest formats.
While Dame vs. Isaiah is the headline here, there are other guys with high ceilings worth rostering in GPPs, specifically Al Horford and C.J. McCollum, who is fresh off of nailing a game-winner against Dallas on Tuesday. He put up 38.9 FD points in 39.4 minutes in that contest, although he will have tough one-on-one matchups against Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown, who has made strides as a defender lately.
Horford will likely start opposite Noah Vonleh, who is somehow still in the league.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
