The NBA trade deadline expires at 3pm ET today. Any moves made after this article is published will likely impact the six-game slate that begins at 7pm ET. We’ll conduct a broad overview that will serve as the foundation of chaos.
Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic
Vegas: 217 over/under, Blazers -2.5
The last time the Blazers and Magic squared off, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum scored a combined 60 points and Evan Turner was the only other Blazer to score in double figures. They will be without Al-Farouq Aminu tonight, as well as Turner, and that creates minutes at the power forward spot. Maurice Harkless could slide up a spot and Ed Davis may receive additional minutes. Allen Crabbe could also see a handful of minutes on the wing, but Lillard and McCollum will likely monopolize offensive touches.
The most intriguing player on the Blazers is Jusuf Nurkic, who provided 29.25 DK points in 21.3 minutes off the bench against the Jazz in the game prior to the All-Star break. Meyers Leonard has been underwhelming as the interim starting center, and since both cost roughly the same on FD, paying the extra $200 for Nurkic is a reasonable move in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Centers facing the Magic this season have averaged a +4.32 FD Plus/Minus (projected 18 minutes minimum). Nurkic may even enter the starting lineup, which is reasonable given Leonard’s putrid display thus far.
Terrence Ross is expected to make his Magic debut, and interim starting point guard C.J. Watson has been ruled out. It’s unknown if Ross will slide into the starting lineup, but either Elfrid Payton or D.J. Augustin will move back into the starting lineup. Coach Frank Vogel moved Payton to the bench due to his increased performance as a reserve earlier this season, but it’s already been reported that Payton is likely to get the nod tonight. His salary has dropped significantly over the past three weeks, but his production has been too wide-ranging to comfortably roster him in cash games.
It’s easy to see why Nikola Vucevic currently rates highly in the Phan Model:
He’s annihilated the now Mason Plumlee-less Blazers, and now that Serge Ibaka is no longer on the Orlando roster, Vucevic becomes their primary offensive weapon down low. Per 36 minutes, Vucevic leads the Magic with 43.4 DK points sans Ibaka, and in the two games Ibaka missed this season, Vucevic led the team with a +4.6 usage rate differential and 34.8 DK points in 30.0 minutes per game.
Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons
Vegas: 206.5 over/under, Pistons -4.5
This game possesses the lowest over/under on the slate by a wide margin, and every Hornet projected to play claims a negative Opponent Plus/Minus. The Pistons rank sixth in road defensive efficiency, yielding 101.5 points per 100 possessions, and their average home pace is roughly 2.5 possessions per 48 minutes greater than their road pace. The Pistons and Hornets have played three times already this season, and the Hornets scored less than 90 points in the first two meetings while the Pistons exceeded 110 points on two occasions.
The image below depicts how the Hornets broke down in the past games. Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are firmly in the red, and Marvin Williams and Kemba Walker have posted the best DK Plus/Minus marks on the team. Walker is priced below his average production, and Williams has provided an outstanding +6.17 DK Plus/Minus on 94.4 percent Consistency this season when the Hornets are underdogs. If you want exposure to this low-implied total match as a contrarian play, Williams and Walker offer solid past performance.
Cody Zeller and Miles Plumlee have already been ruled out, leaving Frank Kaminsky as the primary beneficiary. He’ll likely remain the starting center, and in the past three starts, he’s averaged 38.6 FD points in 36.78 minutes per game. Unsurprisingly, his salary has reached $6,000 on DK and FD, but he’s shown an ability to take advantage of traditional centers on the perimeter. He’s even grabbed double-digit rebounds in two of the past five contests while securing at least one block and steal in three straight games.
The Pistons’ roster is firmly entrenched in trade rumors, but they’ve seemed to have the upper hand in this matchup:
Andre Drummond was ejected in the first half of the first game between these two teams, but he managed to compile 26 points and 20 rebounds in the sequel. The time to pounce on Drummond is when the Pistons are at home, where he’s recorded a +4.69 DK Plus/Minus on 74.1 percent Consistency. Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris are priced below their average production against the Hornets this season, and Morris has two solid custom trends in his favor:
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas: 227 over/under, Rockets -3.5
The Rockets made 24 3-pointers the only time these teams played this season. They were led by Eric Gordon with seven of those. Lou Williams isn’t expected to make his Rockets debut, and with Corey Brewer traded, Gordon, James Harden, and Patrick Beverley will likely claim all of the backcourt minutes. Gordon gets one of the best matchups for shooting guards this season, and Harden is now listed at point guard only on DK. He’s clearly the most expensive player on either platform, and he also leads all the high-priced studs in projected usage now that the Kings have dealt DeMarcus Cousins to New Orleans. Harden will likely become much more feasible to roster once the trade deadline passes and additional value emerges. He’s not a cumbersome investment on FD currently, but the single-position eligibility on DK restricts his utility.
Coach Mike D’Antoni mentioned that Nene could start at center to help mitigate the Pelicans’ size. That would shift Clint Capela to a reserve role and immediately vault Nene into a value play at center. He costs the minimum on DK, which is fine for a punt play since he’ll likely play anywhere between 16-24 minutes and likely guard Cousins, the league leader in fouls drawn per contest.
Now is Ryan Anderson‘s time to shine. He’s on the road, and he’s returning to the arena he called home the previous four seasons. Anderson’s notorious home/road splits have made him untouchable at the Toyota Center.
DeMarcus Cousins is slated to make his Pelicans debut. The experiment in New Orleans is one worth watching, but immediately pouncing on Cousins or Anthony Davis at their inflated salaries is a maneuver best employed in GPPs. It’s unclear if Terrence Jones will remain on the roster, but if Davis gets injured or Cousins gets ejected, the other will have a chance to dominate in this likely high-paced game. Neither will likely maintain their high usage moving forward, and Cousins’ presence shatters Jrue Holiday‘s cash-game value now that his salary has settled above $7,000.
The Pelicans’ backcourt was cleaned out in the Cousins trade, leaving Holiday, E’Twaun Moore, and Tim Frazier as the remaining members. The Pelicans could theoretically slide Solomon Hill down to the two guard spot or utilize two-point-guard looks, but it appears Moore is in line for significant minutes. He costs less than $3,700 on DK and FD, and he’s in the mix as a value play on the slate since shooting guards projected to play at least 18 minutes have averaged a +3.50 FD Plus/Minus when facing the Rockets this season.
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas: 223 over/under, Cavs -10
Overall, the Knicks have averaged a -2.30 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 25 percent Consistency in three contests against the Cavs this season. They lost the first two by 61 combined points, and the third loss featured a 27-point deficit in the third quarter, belying the final margin of seven points. Even without Kevin Love, the Cavs are presently 10-point favorites. The Knicks are last in the league in road true shooting percentage (52 percent), and their Offensive Rating drops three points per 100 possessions as a visitor compared to that of their yearly average.
Two players immediately stand out based on the previous three games: Brandon Jennings and Willy Hernangomez. Point guards have been a must-play when facing the Cavs this season, and Jennings provided plenty of value in his two starts for the injured Derrick Rose. As long as Rose is still on the roster, he shifts into that role of starting point guard facing the Cavs, and he carries a +5.28 FanDuel Plus/Minus when the Knicks are underdogs. Hernangomez will start at center, and he’s posted no fewer than 21.75 DK points in the last 11 games he’s played at least 19 minutes.
Conversely, here’s how the Cavs have fared against the Knicks this season:
LeBron James averaged 34.5 minutes per game — three minutes fewer than his yearly mark — in three games against the Knicks this season, and he’s maintained 100 percent Consistency on DraftKings. If you’re looking for security on this hectic day, James offers a similar ceiling and floor to those of Harden at a significant discount. Minutes could be an issue, as coach Tyronn Lue mentioned wanting to decrease James’ playing time down during the second half of the season. However, with Love and J.R. Smith sidelined, James has averaged 50.5 DK points in 36.2 minutes. In the 17 instances since last season when the Cavs were double-digit favorites and implied to score at least 110 points, James produced 51.68 FD points on 82 percent Consistency.
Kyrie Irving, Channing Frye, and Tristan Thompson additionally benefit from Love’s absence, and the latter two claim a FD Opponent Plus/Minus of at least +4.46. The spread is concerning, but no Love reduces the concern slightly.
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Vegas: 230 over/under, Warriors -12
Chris Paul went through the full practice on Wednesday and could play tonight. He’s been listed as out, but waiting for Doc Rivers’ confirmation is the prudent move.
Individually, the bench players have provided more value against the Warriors than the starters. Blake Griffin has historically performed abysmally when facing Draymond Green, who missed the last game with a shoulder injury.
Here’s how the Warriors have fared against the Clippers this year:
In the three previous games against the Clippers, the Warriors tallied 115, 144, and 133 points without a single overtime. Despite averaging 100.69 possessions per 48 minutes — a decline in two possessions compared to their yearly average — their 128.1 Offensive Rating against the Clippers is their highest average mark against any team this season.
Andre Iguodala averaged a +10.7 DK Plus/Minus in the three previous games, and he costs $3,800 on DK. If you need a punt play and want to press your luck on Iguodala, this would be the occasion: A week-long layoff and a solid track record against the Clippers.
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings
Vegas: 220.5 over/under, Nuggets -7
Kenneth Faried is officially doubtful, and Jameer Nelson will continue to start ahead of Emmanuel Mudiay. In fact, it’s unclear if Mudiay is the second- or third-string point guard currently. Once the statuses of Danilo Gallinari, Darrell Arthur, and Mudiay are known — all three are presently questionable — value could begin to emerge with the Nuggets tonight. Until then, many of their options are priced unfavorably since coach Mike Malone likes to play a large rotation.
How will the minutes and usage be dispersed on Sacramento following Sunday’s trade? Nobody knows, and the team will forgo shootaround in favor of a walkthrough following the trade deadline.
We can gander at the Kings’ box score from February 8th to help provide a blueprint on how playing time may unfold. Cousins was suspended for that game, Anthony Tolliver played 37 minutes as the starting power forward, and Darren Collison, Arron Afflalo, and Ben McLemore all played more than 30 minutes.
Because he gets the best matchup for any position, Collison warrants consideration in cash games on FanDuel at $5,500. Tyreke Evans is expected to be limited to 27 minutes, and he’s likely going to lead the second unit offense or wind up starting at small forward. It’s anyone’s guess at this point. Buddy Hield, the centerpiece of the deal, will likely be asked to play substantial minutes.
The Kings have two traditional centers and one stretch power forward. Assuming Georgios Papagiannis and Skal Labissiere don’t get minutes immediately, the rest of the available players are wings and guards. Kosta Koufos will likely remain the starting center, and he provides significant value when Cousins and Rudy Gay are unavailable. Willie Cauley-Stein is the other center option, and he’s almost guaranteed 20 minutes. Nearly all the options on the Kings costs less than $5,000. It’s mainly a matter of figuring out which player will receive a majority of the minutes.
As coach Dave Joerger told the media yesterday . . .
“It’s going to be a little bit on the fly. There’s not a lot of practice time in 25 games (left). So you’ve got to stick with some of the things that you’ve been doing, even as you slowly work through some other things.”
And then there’s this nugget:
League executives anticipate Sacramento will move Arron Afflalo prior to today's trade deadline.
— Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes) February 23, 2017
If Afflalo moves, it becomes a free-for-all on the wing with McLemore and other guards likely being forced to play minutes at power forward.
News Updates
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