Thursday marks the last slate before All-Star break and has only two games beginning at 7pm ET. Once the slate has started, get your sweat on with our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Let’s jump in.
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
Vegas: 217 over/under, Wizards -2
The Wizards have been on a tear lately, winning 17 out of their last 20 games. That said, they’ve played a lot of home games in that span: Six of their last seven games have been at home, with the lone road game coming against the lowly Brooklyn Nets. Most of their players have moderate home/away splits:
Home
Away
Of note, Marcin Gortat has been largely the same player at home versus away, Markieff Morris has been better on the road, and both John Wall and Bradley Beal have fairly significant splits in favor of home games.
These teams have played each other three times already this year, and Gortat has been the most valuable asset, averaging a +12.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus on perfect Consistency.
That falls right in line with his current play: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging a +9.08 Plus/Minus over that time. He’s still ridiculously cheap at $6,000 and has nine Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He’s the highest-rated DK player in the Phan Model for a reason.
Wall will carry massive ownership despite the trends listed above due to his high ceiling. He put up 47.6 FD points in 36.6 minutes just last Friday against the Pacers and has posted a double-double in eight straight games.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Beal and Morris will also carry high ownership given the two-game slate and the fact that the SG and PF positions lack viable players with the floors that these guys possess.
The contrarian option here is Otto Porter, who has been a bit overlooked during the Wizards’ incredible run but just put up 36.4 FD points in 33.5 minutes against the Thunder on Monday. Given the two ‘studs’ at his position in Jimmy Butler and Paul George, Porter is likely be the lowest owned of the rosterable Wizards.
Thaddeus Young has been ruled out again and Lavoy Allen is questionable with a sore right knee. If Allen can suit up, he’ll likely draw the start, although he’s been pretty unimpressive in that role:
In five games without Young, Allen has averaged only 19.9 DraftKings points and a +4.0 Plus/Minus in 25.4 minutes per game — and that sample includes his 42.75-point explosion in his first start. If Allen is ruled out, Kevin Seraphin will likely move into the starting PF spot, but, as you might’ve guessed, he’s also been quite unremarkable over the last two starts in Allen’s absence:
Just about every player is playable in guaranteed prize pools in a two-game slate, and it’s not as if Allen ($3,200 DK) or Seraphin ($3,500) are expensive, but be aware that even though they’re now starting these guys don’t suddenly have high ceilings.
Monta Ellis has been the most surprising Pacer of late, as he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games and averaged a +4.80 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10:
He’s gotten 30-plus minutes in each of the last three games and remains only $3,700 on DK, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Paul George leads all players with 14 DK Pro Trends and will likely be very chalky alongside Jimmy Butler. George has played huge minutes lately and has upside going against Porter, who isn’t horrible in terms of Defensive Real Plus-Minus — he is 23rd among 80 eligible SFs with a +0.81 mark — but has given up high shooting marks to opposing wings:
George has played very well against the Wizards in their three meetings this year.
That leaves us with some intriguing GPP plays in Myles Turner, Jeff Teague, Al Jefferson, and even Glenn Robinson, who exploded last night for 31.0 DK points in 26.4 minutes of action against the Cavaliers. Turner is perhaps the safest of the four and has averaged 32.1 DK points and a +3.8 Plus/Minus in two games this year without Allen and Young. Among centers today, Gortat is likely the best value, but Turner arguably has the highest upside.
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls
Vegas: 212 over/under, Bulls -1
Isaiah Thomas has performed exceptionally well in two games against the Bulls this year:
He dropped 50.5 DK points on them in their last meeting, which is a mark he’s struggled to hit lately.
Given their respective pricing, Wall ($10,400 FD) is clearly the safer option compared to Thomas ($10,000), but that could potentially lower Thomas’ ownership. Thomas has a more reasonable price on DK, where his $9,300 salary comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. (For reference, Wall is $10,700 there with a 13 percent Bargain Rating.)
Amir Johnson has been the best Celtics player against the Bulls this season. That said, he played only 15.3 minutes last night, and Kelly Olynyk has more-or-less taken over most of the minutes alongside Al Horford in the backcourt. Olynyk has been amazing of late . . .
. . . and he’s somehow still only $4,500 DK despite averaging an +8.23 Plus/Minus over the past 10 games on 90 percent Consistency.
Marcus Smart is the other guy to look at here: He exploded for 51.8 DK points last night against the 76ers thanks to 21 real points, five rebounds, five assists, and a whopping eight steals.
That last data point is certainly unsustainable, but he’s enjoyed huge minutes lately and Brad Stevens clearly wants his defensive prowess out on the floor. He should be very chalky today, especially at only $5,800 on FD, where he has a 68 percent Bargain Rating.
Jae Crowder is an intriguing DFS player today. Given his incredibly narrow range of outcomes . . .
. . . he profiles more as a cash-game play. However, the SF pool also boasts George and Butler, who are equally safe and have much higher ceilings. It might be smart in this slate to be underweight on Crowder and go all in on George, Butler, and select shares of Porter and Robinson.
I’ll mention James Young just because this is a small slate and probably anyone with 20-minute upside should be mentioned. He’s $3,000 DK and had a +5.6 Plus/Minus in 22.1 minutes last night, but it was also against the 76ers. I wouldn’t advise points-chasing here.
For the Bulls, this is clear: Jimmy Butler should be the absolute “chalk lock” of the night. Dwyane Wade has been ruled out with an illness, and Butler has averaged 53.2 DK points and a ridiculous +12.4 Plus/Minus in 38.0 minutes per contest in his five games this season without Wade:
If you fade Jimmy tonight, you’ll likely have a long All-Star break.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Butler may be the only Bull to see 30-plus minutes tonight, especially with Nikola Mirotic likely to play after sitting out the last two games with back spasms. Doug McDermott had played well in his absence . . .
. . . but he’ll likely dip back to the mid-20s with Niko playing. Michael Carter-Williams will likely slide into the starting lineup alongside Jerian Grant. Although he’s been solid in games without Wade this year . . .
. . . that likely overstates his value with Butler back. In those five games with Wade out and Butler in, Jimmy has averaged a 30.6 percent assist rate and pretty much run the team by himself.
In two games against the Celtics this year, there have been solid performances for the Bulls, especially from the PFs:
That said, the Bulls frontcourt rotation is very difficult to analyze right now. Robin Lopez played only 21.2 minutes on Tuesday, and Taj Gibson has been equally all over the place in terms of minutes:
All that said, Gibson still has a ceiling worth rostering — especially considering his success against Boston this year — and the Celtics continue to struggle rebounding the basketball: They rank 26th in rebound rate, grabbing only 48.1 percent of the boards.
Rajon Rondo won’t start, but he’s played more minutes than Grant lately, he’s only $4,200 DK, and he has a massive +4.12 Opponent Plus/Minus today. Thomas remains the worst defensive point guard in the league, as evidenced by his poor -4.38 DRPM.
Wouldn’t this be the slate for Rondo to randomly explode and win someone a GPP?
News Updates
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