Thursday brings an eight-game main slate at 7 pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers
Of the three games with the highest Vegas totals today — Rockets-Thunder (217.5), Blazers-Lakers (217.5), and Pacers-Nets (217.5) — it’s likely that the latter will go the most overlooked.
Paul George put up 44.2 FanDuel points in a tough matchup versus the Pistons last game, and he gets an elite matchup today versus the Nets. He owns a +3.16 Opponent Plus/Minus and will likely start opposite Bojan Bogdanovic, who has been one of the worst defenders in the league this year: Bojan’s -2.72 Defensive Real Plus/Minus ranks 95th out of 97 eligible SGs. George could also see some time against rookie Caris LeVert. LeVert was selected 20th overall by the Pacers but traded to the Nets for Young; LeVert has since been rehabbing from his third foot surgery and will play tonight against the team that traded him away. Back to George: None of these guys have a chance of guarding him if he’s aggressive offensively.
Both PFs, Young and Trevor Booker, profile as cash-game guys: Young has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games and averaged a +5.70 FD Plus/Minus during that time, and Booker has hit value in three straight. Both have strong Opponent Plus/Minus values and, while Young is a stronger play because of his superior minute projection, Booker is averaging a much better 0.96 fantasy points per minute and has a nice double-double shot tonight.
LeVert might be worth a couple darts in tournaments: He’s the absolute minimum $3,000 on DK, which means that he needs only 12.65 points to hit value. His minutes will likely be capped in his first start, but this Brooklyn wing rotation is very thin without Jeremy Lin, and LeVert could surprise in 20 to 25 minutes.
It’s pretty much always wise to play centers versus Indiana: Brook Lopez is only $6,700 DK and has a massive +5.04 Opponent Plus/Minus. Myles Turner, who is certainly a fine GPP option in his own right, has worlds of defensive potential and even has a solid +1.95 DRPM, but he has not managed to keep opposing centers off the glass and away from big fantasy days. Indiana owns the third-worst rebound rate, grabbing only 47.5 percent of available boards.
And let’s not forget Jeff Teague, who has averaged a +6.69 DK Plus/Minus over his last nine games and owns 10 Pro Trends and a +3.66 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s probably a bit overpriced at $7,400, but he has a projected ceiling of 50.3 points and could see single-digit ownership.
Point Guard
Stud
Per our NBA News feed, Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni said after Wednesday’s practice that Patrick Beverley would return for Thursday’s matchup versus the Thunder, but Beverley has since been downgraded to a game-time decision after experiencing lingering pain in his right wrist. That will certainly affect the value of Russell Westbrook, who currently owns a poor -1.01 FD Opponent Plus/Minus. Westbrook is a solid play regardless in tournaments — his 74.4 projected FD ceiling leads all players in the slate — but he becomes an elite play in all formats if Beverley is ruled out. Westbrook dropped 52.0 FD points last outing versus the Rockets, and he’s averaged a ridiculous +4.63 Plus/Minus over his last nine games — a sample that includes a game against Memphis in which he was ejected early and posted a -27.74 Plus/Minus. The dude is a machine and a solid play even on a tough road-road back-to-back.
Value
Tony Parker has had quite a run of playing poor defenses versus opposing PGs and hasn’t disappointed:
Those high Plus/Minus games coincide with matchups versus the Raptors, Hawks, Blazers, and Suns, and now he gets the best matchup of them all: The Denver Nuggets. They’ve been by far the worst team against PGs this year: Nearly 90 percent of starting PGs have hit value, and they’ve averaged an incredible +8.62 DK Plus/Minus. Per our Trends tool:
Parker is not a guy to roster very often because of his low floor and low ceiling, but it’s hard to argue that any PG doesn’t have a high floor against the Nuggets: Guys like Tim Frazier, Darren Collison, and Sergio Rodriguez have all put up 38-plus DK outings this season against them. Parker has a massive +5.97 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD, where his low $4,600 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Jrue Holiday has scored 31-plus FD points in five of his last six games and gets an elite matchup today versus the Hawks, who have been the third-worst team in the league this year versus starting PGs:
Jrue likes to operate out of the pick-and-roll, and opposing PG Dennis Schroder has been poor defending that play this season.
There are some high-priced ‘Studs’ above him, but Jrue’s $7,200 FD salary is a nice target in tournaments, especially since he’s currently projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden put up 45.8 FD points last game versus the Thunder thanks to 21 real points, eight rebounds, and 12 assists. That may seem like a solid number, but note that Harden’s current $12,000 salary gives him an implied total of 50.54. He can certainly hit that against any team, but he does have a tough matchup today versus Andre Roberson, who is an elite wing defender and owns a +2.14 DRPM on the season. He has the quickness and size to bother Harden all over the court:
Harden is a tough fade — he’s averaged an +8.0 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine games and is just two games removed from putting up a 53-16-17 game against the Knicks — but his high salary, high projected ownership (26-30 percent), and tough matchup make him riskier than he usually is.
Be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy NBA Scouting Report on Harden.
Value
Nicolas Batum is $7,700 DK and $7,800 FD, but he’s still perhaps the best ‘value’ among SGs options today. Batum has been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games and averaging a +7.50 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He has posted at least 33 FD points in each of his last seven games, and he currently leads all SGs with a +5.30 Projected Plus/Minus. Like most SGs today, he has a poor -3.74 Opponent Plus/Minus, but he’s shown this season that he can perform even in tough matchups, as he’s perhaps the SG in the league who’s least dependent on scoring, besides Harden:
These two teams have already played twice this season, and Batum averaged 31.1 FD points and a +2.73 Plus/Minus, the former of which is close to the total he needs to get tonight to hit value for cash games.
Leverage Play
C.J. McCollum has a dream matchup against the Lakers, but he’s just off a brutal game against the Warriors last night in which he shot 31 times and had to be the entire Portland offense. We don’t have news on Damian Lillard yet — he’s missed five straight games with a sprained left ankle — and McCollum would remain a usage monster if Lillard is ruled out again. In those five games, McCollum has averaged 45.6 DK points and an +8.4 Plus/Minus, and he’s used a ridiculous 37.4 percent of the Blazers’ possessions while on the floor. He’s pricey at $9,000 DK, but he’s only $8,000 FD and would become an elite value there against the Lakers’ 30th-ranked defense if Lillard is out. By the way, if Lillard gives it a go, load him up in tournaments: He’s only $8,000 DK and owns a massive +4.78 Opponent Plus/Minus.
If Lillard is in, look at Victor Oladipo as well, who has scored 28.1 and 30.0 points in his last two games since returning from injury. He’s only $5,900 on FD.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard has a better matchup versus the Nuggets, but Gordon Hayward is a slightly better value at only $7,700. The Jazz are currently 4.5-point road dogs implied to score a slate-low 97.5 points versus the Raptors. That said, most of the Jazz’ games have low implications because of their defense and pace, and Hayward has still produced this season:
He continued his career struggle versus his former college coach last game, but he’s been very consistent lately outside of that, playing at least 32 minutes and posting at least 31 FD points in each of his prior six games. He needs only 31.67 points to hit value tonight. He has a tough one-on-one matchup versus DeMarre Carroll, but Carroll hasn’t exceeded 18 minutes in each of his last three games, which means that Hayward will spend at least half the game being guarded by backup Terrence Ross, who has an average +0.20 DRPM this season. George is certainly the true SF ‘Stud,’ but Hayward is a fine pivot in guaranteed prize pools at only 13-16 percent projected ownership.
Value
The SF spot is ugly outside of George today — LeVert might actually become a viable punt play at min price — but Trevor Ariza has been consistent lately and the Rockets are currently implied to score a slate-high 116.75 points versus the Thunder. Wing stopper Andre Roberson has historically guarded Harden, which we’re projecting to be the case again today, which means that Ariza will likely start opposite Victor Oladipo, who gives up a sizable height advantage and could have trouble tracking Ariza in D’Antoni’s “organized chaos” offense.
Ariza is only $5,900 on FD, where he’s currently projected for five to eight percent ownership.
Leverage Play
Harrison Barnes has been playing excellent basketball lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games and averaging a robust +5.48 FD Plus/Minus during that time. The Mavericks are currently six-point home favorites implied to score 105.25 points against the Suns, who are atrocious defensively this year. They play at the league’s second-fastest pace, averaging 102.9 possessions per game, yet they own the 23rd-ranked defense, allowing a poor 107.0 points per 100 possessions on the season. Barnes has a nice +1.11 Opponent Plus/Minus and should start opposite rookie Marquese Chriss, who has been one of the worst defenders in the league this season:
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is a much better value on DK, where his $10,000 salary comes with a +4.95 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He has a mediocre -0.48 Opponent Plus/Minus versus the Hawks, who currently boast the fifth-ranked defense in the league, allowing only 102.7 points per 100 possessions. He’s been crushing lately, putting up 51-plus DK points in six of his last seven games:
He’s grabbed at least 15 boards per game in those six games and has been the Pelicans’ defensive force down low. He’s currently the No. 1 PF in the Phan Model for DK, and he’s projected for a chalky 36-40 percent ownership.
Value
Derrick Favors is perhaps a little risky because of his rehab protocol, but he got up to 29.02 minutes last game versus the Celtics and remains only $4,500 on FD. We have him projected for 28.3 minutes versus the Raptors, and he needs only 17.62 fantasy points to hit value at that price point. He’s currently the No. 1 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a position-high +6.28 Projected Plus/Minus, a 93 percent Bargain Rating, and a +1.01 Opponent Plus/Minus. The Raptors have been a mediocre defensive team this season without Bismack Biyombo and now rank 17th in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.2 points per 100 possessions. Favors has an elite matchup versus Pascal Siakam. If he’s going to get nearly 30 minutes, he’s in play in all contest formats at that price.
Leverage Play
Nikola Jokic is facing the Spurs, who now own the top-ranked defense in the league, allowing a stout 101.3 points per 100 possessions. Further, Jokic is now priced up at $7,100 FD, where he needs 29.03 points to hit value. Still, Jokic has hit at least 36 FD points in each of his last five games and averaged a ridiculous +9.10 Plus/Minus over his last nine:
It’s certainly a brutal matchup, but it could drop his ownership down — he’s projected for 13-16 percent currently — and he’s still projected for a +5.87 Plus/Minus because of his stellar recent play and usage rate. He trails only Davis at the position with his 1.16 fantasy points per minute.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has scored 45.8 and 51.6 FD points in his last two games against the Pacers and Heat, and he now gets another nice matchup against the Hornets, who rank a solid sixth in defensive efficiency on the year but have struggled against opposing centers. Drummond owns a nice +2.12 Opponent Plus/Minus and has a ton of upside against a Charlotte team that doesn’t even try to rebound offensively in Clifford’s system: The Hornets rank 26th in offensive rebound rate, grabbing only 21.0 percent of the available boards. Drummond has at least 14 rebounds in each of his last three games, and he can certainly do damage against Roy Hibbert, who has struggled to guard the pick-and-roll this season. Drummond is only $7,900 on FD, where he has nine Pro Trends and a low five to eight percent projected ownership.
Value
Montrezl Harrell just continues to hit value:
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games and averaged an impressive +6.31 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine. He’s up to only $4,700 FD today, which gives him ‘Value’ status despite the tough matchup versus the Thunder and Steven Adams. He’s currently the No. 1 center in the Phan Model for FD, and he currently owns a position-high +5.30 Projected Plus/Minus and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He also has a position-high 21-25 percent projected ownership, so perhaps a tournament fade is in order.
Leverage Play
Turner is the elite tournament option, but we’ve already hit on him. Instead, let’s mention Rudy Gobert, who has averaged a +3.27 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine games and has recently seen his salary drop to $7,400. He struggled last game, scoring only 24.6 FD points against the Celtics, and there is some concern that his upside could be limited with Favors back in the rotation. Still, it’s hard to ignore a matchup against Toronto, who has struggled to defend opposing centers this season:
Gobert has 10 Pro Trends and nine to 12 percent projected ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
