The All-Star #NarrativeStreet is certainly a factor tonight. The reserves will be named before any of the four games begin, and the ‘snubs’ will be playing against coaches that may not have voted them in. It all begins at 8pm ET.
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas: 197 over/under, Thunder -9.5
The Mavs will be without Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, and J.J. Barea. Andrew Bogut believes he can play on the second night of a back-to-back set, and A.J. Hammons was recalled from the D-League. If you’re looking for value, you’ve found it with the Mavs. Feast your eyes on the beneficiaries for a team presently implied to score 93.75 points.
Harrison Barnes and Seth Curry presently lead the Mavs in Projected Plus/Minus. Since entering the starting lineup on January 12th, Curry has averaged a +6.1 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 27.8 minutes per game. He’s also made 57.1 percent of his attempts during that stretch. My only concern for either player is the threat of Andre Roberson, who will likely guard one or the other.
Pierre Jackson immediately pops in the Phan Model. That’s mainly because his salary is at the minimum and he may start at point guard. Devin Harris or Justin Anderson could potentially start alongside Curry in the backcourt, which would shift Curry to point guard and Jackson into a reserve role, where his minutes would dry up. The starting lineup will likely be announced early enough to decrease your Jackson shares, but it’s a nationally televised game — the announcement of starting lineups can be delayed under those circumstances.
Many of the Mavs cost $3,000 on DraftKings. It’s a question of how many of them you can stomach and how long you think this game will remain close.
No one on the slate rivals Russell Westbrook‘s projected ceiling or floor. The pace differential (-7.0) and Vegas spread are concerning, but Westbrook is an elite play at home:
Conversely, points guards projected to play at least 18 minutes against the Mavs this season have cultivated the only negative FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Westbrook’s salary, combined with a potential blowout, really curtails his appeal. I don’t expect Jackson to guard Westbrook if he starts. That honor will likely belong to Dorian Finney-Smith or Anderson. The chances of Westbrook playing a season-low in minutes is on the table, and at his current salaries, it becomes prohibitive to build your lineup around him.
Steven Adams isn’t a flashy play, but he currently leads all centers in Projected Plus/Minus. Over the past 10 games, he’s produced a DraftKings +6.23 Plus/Minus, and his salary has dropped down to $5,000, which is a cheaper price point than Enes Kanter, who typically players fewer minutes.
Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas: 211.5 over/under, Timberwolves -3.5
The Pacers have been one of the worst road teams this season:
They have the worst DraftKings Plus/Minus and Consistency for players projected to play at least 18 minutes. The Pacers’ starters — C.J. Miles is currently projected ahead of Glenn Robinson III — have all recorded Consistency between 42 and 47 percent.
As road underdogs, the Pacers have become highly avoidable.
Al Jefferson has provided the best Consistency, and he’s a cheap center option on DraftKings at $3,200. He’s exceeded 15.0 DraftKings points in five straight games, and that’s enough production to consider the expenditure. The Timberwolves’ Defensive Rating has improved to ninth over the past 15 games, and concentrating on Pacers on a short slate in this spot is a suboptimal move. However, since Miles is in the starting lineup and costs the minimum on FanDuel, a few GPP shares aren’t unjustifiable.
Karl-Anthony Towns and the Target Center. They go together like lamb and tuna fish.
The Pacers’ road Defensive Rating is 110.7, the third-lowest mark in the league, and their 46.2 percent rebound rate on the road ranks 29th — yet another feather in Towns’ cap. He leads his team in Consistency, Upside, and Dud rate over the past 14 games, and his +4.97 Opponent Plus/Minus ranks second among projected starting centers on the slate.
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets
Vegas: 231 over/under, Nuggets -7
The Nuggets and Suns have played two times prior to this season. The will now play in back-to-back games two days apart in a home-and-home set. The Nuggets scored 120 points in each of the previous installments and the Suns totaled 218 points. This game claims the highest Vegas total and will likely be the most targeted game on the slate.
If you need a shooting guard, look no further. The Nuggets and Suns have yielded bottom-three (or top-three, if you think about it that way) DraftKings Plus/Minus marks to opposing shooting guards projected to play at least 18 minutes.
Let’s punctuate the point using FanDuel data:
Gary Harris is a solid cash-game draw. Devin Booker has shown quality GPP upside, and he’s the most expensive shooting guard on both platforms by at least $900.
Eric Bledsoe posted 60 DraftKings points against the Nuggets this season. He was also limited to 22.25 DraftKings points against them two weeks earlier, and he disappointed two nights ago against the Timberwolves. To be fair, he was limited to less than 30 minutes because of foul trouble on Tuesday, and now he gets the best matchup for point guards this season. If the move is to fade Westbrook because of the pace and blowout concerns, Bledsoe offers a serviceable pivot play due to the high Vegas total and exceptional matchup.
Tyson Chandler and P.J. Tucker are also on the radar. Chandler presently ranks second among centers in Projected Plus/Minus, and he hasn’t disappointed of late.
Tucker’s playing time has remained close to 30 minutes per game, and even in the last contest when he shot 1-of-3 from the field, he still provided 34.5 DraftKings points as a multifaceted low-end stat-stuffer. His selling point is his dual eligibility on DraftKings, and on FanDuel he’s recorded 100 percent Consistency and 71 percent Upside over the past month.
Emmanuel Mudiay has been ruled out, and Jameer Nelson will likely remain in the starting lineup. He’s played at least 27 minutes in four straight games, and he’ll be the chalk at point guard due to the clear salary savings he provides.
Darrell Arthur has shown signs of life, and he’s not on the Nuggets’ injury report (yet). At $3,000 on DraftKings, he’s provided enough lately to consider at a relatively thin position. The upper echelon at power forward includes Barnes and Towns.
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz
Vegas: 201.5 over/under, Jazz -13
These teams have played three times, and the recorded pace measurements by NBA.com can be seen below. The total possessions in the two most recent games have ranked below the Jazz’s season average, and George Hill didn’t play in either of those. Hill doesn’t alter the Jazz’s pace when he’s on the court this season. However, over the past six games with Alec Burks firmly in the rotation, the Jazz’s pace has bumped up to 97 possessions per 48 minutes.
Oct. 28th: 96.42 possessions
Dec. 5th: 93.44 possessions
Dec. 27th: 92.62 possessions
From coach Luke Walton on minute distribution:
“It’s probably not going to change because our bench has been so good for us all year. We’re not going to shorten the bench’s minutes to get the starters back in sooner. The bench most nights is posting big numbers for us.”
He’s daring you to choose any of the starters, which could change tonight. On most nights, it’s extremely difficult to pinpoint which starter will play enough minutes to justify their salary, which limits consideration for all Lakers to GPPs.
When the Lakers have been implied to score less than 100 points this season, Lou Williams is the one who leads the charge off the bench:
Williams against the Jazz over the past eight meetings:
When D’Angelo Russell hasn’t played this season, Williams has averaged 31.4 DraftKings points in 26.2 minutes per game. He was incandescent against the Blazers on Wednesday, posting 52.0 DraftKings points in 28 minutes, and he led the team with 20 field-goal attempts. The shooting guard spot is littered with plenty of value, and Williams provides a pivot from the chalk.
The Jazz are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and both Gordon Hayward and George Hill have struggled shooting the ball recently. Rodney Hood could return to the lineup after being upgraded to questionable, and his presence will shift Joe Ingles into a reserve role once again. The matchup is a great one, and Rudy Gobert leads all centers in Opponent Plus/Minus. He and Hayward are two of the most likely to be ‘snubbed’ from All-Star consideration later tonight, and if you’re focusing on that angle, Gobert, who leads the Jazz in average DraftKings Plus/Minus when favored at home, should draw considerable interest as a GPP play.
News Updates
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