It appears all 10 teams playing on the five-game slate have players whose status will be updated later today. Also, Fred Hoiberg and Michael Malone will likely shuffle their rotations. Uncertainty reigns supreme today.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard rates highly among point guards for a few reasons: There are limited options, his Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel and DraftKings leads all guards, and he posted two of the six highest-scoring DFS games against the Nuggets this season for an average DraftKings Plus/Minus of +17.98.
I believe the rule of thumb is this: If the Trail Blazers are playing the Nuggets, roster Lillard and wait for 60 DraftKings points. Lillard ranks in the 80th percentile in scoring in isolation and as the pick-and-roll ball-handler. Conversely, the Nuggets remain near the bottom of the league in defending both play types: They’re bottom-seven in both instances. Lillard gets the added benefit of a Vegas total of 221 points — the second-highest mark on the slate — and a two-point spread, which should guarantee his normal allotment of minutes.
Values
Derrick Rose didn’t practice on Wednesday because of a stiff back, and he was limited to 10 minutes in Tuesday’s loss because of back spasms. He sat two games last week because of a back issue, and he’s presently listed as questionable to play. Assuming he doesn’t, Brandon Jennings would likely start and warrant consideration as a punt play. Prior to Tuesday’s game, he exceeded 20.65 DraftKings points in five straight games, which is coincidentally his implied point total today.
If you want to punt even lower, Jerian Grant will likely start if Rajon Rondo can’t play for the second straight contest. He’s as cheap as possible on FanDuel, but he played fewer minutes than Isaiah Canaan on Tuesday, as Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade alternated playmaking duties.
The last guy I’ll mention is Patty Mills. The Spurs will play on the second night of a back-to-back set, and Tony Parker is a rest candidate. Mills’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.11 on FanDuel rates second to Lillard’s, and the Spurs lead the slate with a pace differential of +7.8. Mills probably won’t start, but when Parker doesn’t play, Mills leads the Spurs with an average FD Plus/Minus of +11.5.
Leverage Play
Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 45.85 FanDuel points and 47.94 DraftKings points in four games against the Bulls last season. Both games were his fourth-best outings on both sites. Antetokounmpo may be more of a ‘Leverage Play’ at point guard on DraftKings, but he’s pure chalk on FanDuel at shooting guard with a projected ownership of at least 41 percent in GPPs. He’s the second-most expensive player on both platforms, and in the first sweep of projections, he leads all players in Projected Plus/Minus. The concern with Antetokounmpo is the matchup: Though it’s not official, he’ll likely be guarded by Jimmy Butler, who ranks fourth in personal fouls drawn this season. Antetokounmpo has been susceptible to foul trouble this season, and he leads all NBA players with 3.8 fouls per contest. Additionally, Antetokounmpo appeared on the Bucks’ injury report as probable to play because of a sprained right ankle. He possesses the highest projected ceiling and floor among point guards on the slate, but too many question marks shift his exposure into the tournament realm.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Dwyane Wade has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in 10 straight contests. He’s expected to play tonight, but his status for Friday’s game won’t likely be determined until tomorrow. Rondo is listed as questionable to play, and in the four games Rondo has missed, Wade has led the team with a 30 percent usage rate and averaged 35.6 DraftKings points. His salary is definitely feasible for cash games, and we’ll likely learn Rondo’s status before the main slate locks.
Values
E’Twaun Moore and Langston Galloway will likely experience a slight increase in playing time now that Tim Frazier has been ruled out at least a week. Both are streaky players, and with Tyreke Evans likely to play, they’re not locks. However, the salary savings will be difficult to avoid on DraftKings and FanDuel. The Pacers’ bench ranks in the bottom-10 in defensive rating, and they’ll be without Rodney Stuckey, who won’t play due to a hamstring injury.
Leverage Plays
Shooting guards opposing the Knicks have averaged a +2.63 Plus/Minus on 59.2 percent Consistency on FanDuel. The Warriors are presently double-digit Vegas favorites, and Klay Thompson leads all players who’ve played in more than 10 such games this season in average Plus/Minus (+5.27) and Consistency (78.9 percent) on FanDuel. In three games without Zaza Pachulia, Thompson led the Warriors with 35.7 minutes per game. The Vegas spread of 14 points, combined with the slate-best total of 222.5 points, makes Thompson a stellar tournament target.
C.J. McCollum has fared well against the Nuggets this season, posting scores of 53.5 and 34.15 DraftKings points. He leads all starting shooting guards with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2 and a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on DraftKings. He costs $100 less than Wade on DraftKings but $100 more on FanDuel, and the Nuggets will get Gary Harris back in the starting lineup tonight. McCollum is also more expensive than Thompson by $900 on FanDuel, and that’s a site where McCollum can be leveraged.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler has averaged a team-high 46.4 FanDuel points and a team-best 24.1 percent assist rate in the four games Rondo has missed this season. Excluding the matchup against Kawhi Leonard three games ago, Butler has bottomed out at 43.8 FanDuel points in the previous six contests. He currently leads all small forwards in Opponent Plus/Minus and Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he costs $700 less than Kevin Durant.
Value
Kawhi Leonard is currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $8,300 salary comes with a +4.90 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating. There isn’t a lot of value at SF today, even with Carmelo Anthony ruled out: In the 10 games without Melo last season, big man Kristaps Porzingis saw the biggest bump in DFS value. As such, the two highest Projected Plus/Minus values on FD belong to Kawhi and Butler. Kawhi has a nice matchup against Phoenix, who ranks second in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Kawhi has a top-five Opponent Plus/Minus mark and is a safe cash-game option in this slate.
Leverage Play
Kevin Durant is a bit of a wildcard on the five-game slate. He’s failed to exceed salary-based expectations in six of the past seven games, yet he leads all small forwards with 93 percent Consistency on DraftKings over the past month. The Knicks rank 26th in defensive efficiency, but in the off-chance that the Knicks keep the game close until the final quarter, Tucker locks down Kawhi the way he did to Anthony Davis and Carmelo, and Rondo is cleared to play for the Bulls, Durant may justify the tournament exposure.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis faces a team ranked 29th in rebound rate, and he leads all power forwards with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.01 on DraftKings. Davis will remain an elite tournament option on both sites, but his salary may be an impediment to constructing a solid cash-game roster on FanDuel. Nonetheless, he leads all power forwards in projected ownership in GPPs and Projected Plus/Minus.
Values
Coach Michael Malone dropped the following two quotes within one minute of each other during Wednesday’s practice:
“I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more changes to the lineup. Read into that what you may.”
“Jokic is playing great, and I have to find more minutes for him.”
In the first meeting with the Trail Blazers this season, Nikola Jokic posted 55.4 FanDuel points in a season-high 34 minutes. Despite failing to play more than 28 minutes in the past five games, he’s averaged 36.82 FanDuel points, which is 12.6 points higher than his implied point total today. Whether he starts or not, he’s provided consistent value, and it appears his playing time will increase. The Trail Blazers rank 28th in defensive efficiency (109.2), and Jokic leads all power forwards with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.67.
Leverage Play
Kristaps Porzingis will oppose Draymond Green. In two games against the Warriors last season, Porzingis made 4-of-19 shots and averaged 23.0 minutes per game. Alternatively, Green recorded 39.75 and 59 DraftKings points in those games, and he notched a triple-double in the first meeting. Clearly, Green will be the preferred choice if it becomes an either/or decision. The Warriors could be without Pachulia for the fourth straight game because of a wrist injury, and Green played at least 34 minutes in consecutive games for the first time since the beginning of December. Porzingis costs $100 more than Green on DraftKings and $200 more on FanDuel — likely reducing his ownership — but he provides a higher ceiling than Green, which is vital in tournaments.
Center
Stud
Myles Turner is the most expensive center-only option on both sites. He leads all centers in Opponent Plus/Minus, projected ceiling, and Pro Trends on FanDuel. He’s still projected for the highest ownership in FanDuel GPPs, but he’s probably the safest play at center after posting at least 27.8 FanDuel points in five straight games. He should be one of the chalkiest plays in the entire slate.
Values
It’s time to fire up the center tandem in Milwaukee again. Greg Monroe and John Henson cost less than $5,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings. In Monday’s blowout loss, neither played more than 16 minutes, and Miles Plumlee was assigned mop-up duty for the final 2:45.
In four games against the Bulls last season, Monroe averaged 33.19 DraftKings points, and they provide a matchup in which he could easily play 20 minutes. Henson will likely continue to start, and he leads all centers on DraftKings in Projected Plus/Minus at a salary of $4,200.
Robin Lopez is in the mix as a safer, slightly more expensive play than the centers in Milwaukee. He possesses a more favorable Opponent Plus/Minus, and his playing time is stable. You can easily pay the extra $400 or $200 up from Henson or Monroe on DraftKings and work around him. The same can be done on FanDuel, but the salary discrepancy is wide enough to consider Henson as your only center (if you’re fading Turner).
Leverage Play
Mason Plumlee costs the same as Turner on FanDuel and $400 less on DraftKings. Plumlee has experienced a recent uptick in offensive production, and in two games against the Nuggets earlier this season, he accumulated 24 and 28.25 DraftKings points. As mentioned above, Turner is the obvious choice at center. However, the Blazers-Nuggets’ 221-point Vegas total is the second-highest mark on the slate, and the amount of value at center today will likely force people to overlook Plumlee.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
