The main slate (7:00pm ET) begins at least an hour before four of the five basketball games are set to tip, but thankfully there aren’t any major injury concerns.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry play for the top two teams in Pace this season.
Westbrook leads the NBA with 8.7 fast break points per game and a 43.2 percent usage rate. The Warriors have allowed 16.5 fast break points per game, the fourth-most through the first week of the season. Due to the pricing disparity, Westbrook appears to be the safer play on FanDuel, where he leads all point guards with projected ownership of 17-20 percent. In three games against the Warriors last season, Westbrook shot 34.7 percent from the field and recorded a 40.2 percent usage rate. However, he was listed at $11,100 on FanDuel in all three regular season games, $1,100 less than today’s salary. Westbrook attempted 30 shots last night and was unable to meet salary-based expectations against the Clippers at $12,900 on DraftKings. He’ll play the second night of a back-to-back set at the same price.
Curry scored 23 points in the third quarter against the Trail Blazers on Tuesday and still failed to meet salary-based expectations for the fourth straight game. His per-possession stats are congruent with his numbers from last season, but his steals dropped from 2.1 per game to two total steals in 132 minutes and he’s averaging a career-low 6.0 assists per 100 possessions. Losing tertiary stats like steals and assists, combined with the acclimation process early in the season, has aided in Curry’s inability to provide value. Despite the Thunder’s high-octane offense and top-rated defense, point guards from Chris Paul to Sergio Rodriguez have easily exceeded salary-based expectations, making Curry a leverage tournament play.
Values
Jameer Nelson and Jamal Murray will be asked to step up in the absence of Will Barton (ankle) and Gary Harris (groin). Murray will get the start, but Nelson is $3,000 on DraftKings and played the entire fourth quarter on Tuesday after Barton was ruled out. Emmanuel Mudiay is another value option on DraftKings. Coach Michael Malone hasn’t been shy to use the Nelson-Mudiay backcourt; together they have led the team in usage differential when Barton hasn’t played this season (per our NBA On/Off tool).
Leverage Plays
Jeff Teague emerges in the DraftKings player pool with a Projected Plus/Minus of +6.3 and a difference of 7.05 in projected floor and implied point total. The Warriors and Pacers lead all teams with implied point totals of 107.5, and the Bucks join the Pacers as a bottom-10 defense. Teague probably classifies more as a value play, but he supplied two duds in his last three games and has shot 6-of-35 from the floor since the opener.
Marcus Smart played 34 minutes in his season debut, and he will likely have to play substantial minutes to help deal with LeBron James. Smart has performed better on the road in his career, as shown below. He’s a bit too pricey on FanDuel, but his $4,400 salary on DraftKings is $500 cheaper than that of Kris Dunn.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Klay Thompson has been tasked with guarding Westbrook in previous meetings with the Thunder, and assuming the defensive assignments are divvied in a similar fashion, fading Thompson is the prudent recourse. Thompson will likely be guarded by Victor Oladipo, and in his last four meetings against the Magic, Thompson produced a -4.10 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and -2.95 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He works as a tournament pivot on FanDuel at a two-year low price tag of $5,700, but there’s definitely risk here.
Value
Zach LaVine has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among shooting guards on both sites, as well as the highest projected ownership at 21-25 percent on FD. It’s fair to discard the results from his last game since the Grizzlies didn’t present a legitimate NBA lineup, but in the first two games this season, LaVine easily provided value.
Leverage Play
Victor Oladipo costs the same as LaVine and Evan Fournier on FanDuel while costing at least $400 more than both on DraftKings. He also costs $300 more than Klay on FanDuel. He may not get to touch the ball tonight, but if Westbrook does the incomprehensible by making it his focus to mainly involve teammates, Oladipo and Steven Adams come to the fore. Oladipo carries lower projected ownership than LaVine and Fournier at 13-16 percent on FD. Also, coach Billy Donovan has made it a habit of staggering Oladipo and Westbrook, leaving plenty of usage for Oladipo against the Warriors’ second unit.
Small Forward
Studs
Fitting both Kevin Durant and LeBron James in your lineup isn’t an insurmountable task on FanDuel given the slate landscape. Durant’s +9.6 Projected Plus/Minus leads all players on FanDuel, and his floor is 4.55 points below his implied point total. That’s straight cash, homey. James is more difficult to peg since Jae Crowder (ankle) and Al Horford (concussion) won’t play. He’s $200 less than Durant on FanDuel and $600 less on DraftKings, but this game could unravel early and James has been deferring to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love at the start of the season.
Values
In five games this season, Rudy Gay has 100 percent Consistency and 100 percent Upside on DraftKings. The Magic have the 26th-ranked defense, and players opposing them have provided 57 percent Consistency with a Plus/Minus of +2.18 on DraftKings in the first week of the season.
Both James and Durant qualify as value plays on FanDuel based on their Projected Plus/Minus values, but just below them is Wilson Chandler. He failed to meet expectations in the first three contests, but his salary has dropped to $4,800, making his average of 18 FanDuel points per game slightly less than his implied point total of 18.93.
Leverage Plays
Paul George ($8,400 on DraftKings) and Andrew Wiggins ($6,300 on FanDuel) are stuck in that middle ground. Durant should be heavily owned, and with Barton and Harris out for the Nuggets, cheap plays like Chandler or Danilo Gallinari will likely be popular. Both their roles won’t change without Barton, but usage should. Coach Mike Malone already said Chandler is not an option at shooting guard.
George failed to provide value in a blowout loss the Bulls. Since he played only 23 minutes, however, we can fall back on his 40-plus performances in the other three games. Wiggins suffered from a similar playing time limitation, competing in only the first three quarters against the Grizzlies on Tuesday. Most of his DFS points will be based on how well he scores in a game, but with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.35 on FanDuel (the second-best mark among SFs behind George’s), Wiggins should be well-rested to take on a Barton-less Nuggets team.
Power Forward
Stud
Aside from scoring and efficiency, Draymond Green’s per-possession numbers mirror his stats from last season. Even though he hasn’t scored more than eight actual points in the last three games, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations by leading the team in assists and nearly averaging a triple-double. The Thunder replaced Domantas Sabonis in the second half starting lineup last night with Nick Collison, a move related to Sabonis’ four fouls in the first half. I’m not sure if Jerami Grant will step into the starting lineup tonight, but neither matchup worries me. You’ll want to get your shares of Green on DraftKings, where he holds an 86 percent Bargain Rating. Because of the prior relationship between Green and Steven Adams, I’d be inclined to focus on Green in tournaments in case an ejection were to occur.
Values
Gorgui Dieng has been the beneficiary of the increased defensive attention aimed at Towns this season. He’s also proven to coach Tom Thibodeau that he can play 34 minutes a game. Dieng is presently the highest-rated power forward on FanDuel at $6,500, and his Projected Plus/Minus of +4.8 leads the position.
Jonas Jerebko is expected to play similar minutes to last night, as Horford has been ruled out. In 22 minutes, Jerebko put up 18.5 DraftKings points, close to six more than his implied point total at $3,000. This game could be a blowout, forcing coach Stevens to empty his bench. When he does, Jerebko, Jordan Mickey, and Jaylen Brown will likely remain on the court.
Leverage Play
Thaddeus Young may go overlooked in the Player Models, but the entire Pacers team should benefit from a projected high-scoring affair. Young leads all starting power forwards with an Opponent Plus/Minus mark of +7.32 in a matchup against Jabari Parker. In three games against the Bucks last year, Young exceed salary-based expectations every time and averaged a +8.43 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +9.56 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins has lived up to his salary once in five games on DraftKings, but he’s been much more efficient at his FanDuel prices. Utilizing centers against Orlando is usually a safe play: Over the past week, Joel Embiid went for 38.75 FanDuel points in 24 minutes and Andre Drummond grabbed 20 rebounds. The Magic’s defense has been bad to start the year, and they’ve allowed the opposition to shoot 47.4 percent overall and 66.7 percent inside of five feet — placing them 29th in both categories. Cousins is currently the highest-rated center on FanDuel and nowhere near that on DraftKings. That tells me he’s cash-viable on FanDuel and tournament-worthy on DraftKings.
Value
Karl-Anthony Towns’ salary has decreased by $1,300 on DraftKings since the season opener. He was limited to 30 minutes in the previous game because the Grizzlies sat their regulars, but in the time he’s been on the court without Ricky Rubio this season, he’s averaged what amounts to a per-game differential of +7.0 DraftKings points.
Myles Turner has the best Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel (+7.47) and DraftKings (+8.27). Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, and Roy Hibbert all exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel by at least 20 points in their starts against the Bucks this season. I see no reason to fade Turner in cash games.
Leverage Play
Jusuf Nurkic has provided significant value at the beginning of the season, but his presence in the starting lineup has bumped Nikola Jokic down to power forward and cost the sophomore a -4.7 percent rebounding differential and a -4.0 percent usage rate differential this season. Nurkic is still plenty cheap ($5,600 on FanDuel), and he hasn’t been whistled for more than three fouls in a game this season. While the Timberwolves are currently a top-10 defense, they were ranked 28th prior to playing the Grizzlies without Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. That game alone helped them shave 10 points off their Defensive Rating (DRtg).
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
