The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 8:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard has the top matchup of the day at the PG position facing the Los Angeles Lakers. They’re currently playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA and have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.66 to opposing PGs over the past two seasons. Lillard leads the slate with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically been strong values:
One potential caveat is that the Blazers are the only team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back today. They are playing at home, but this could still be tough for Lillard. He’s been absolutely dreadful in these situations before:
The juicy matchup on a very short slate likely outweighs the concerns of a small 16-game sample, but it is an eye-opening data point nonetheless. He should be one of the highest-owned players of the day.
Stephen Curry has been an elite producer on DraftKings to start the season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.12 while posting an 88 percent Consistency Rating over his first eight games:
He’s been underpriced on DraftKings relative to his salary on FanDuel for virtually the entire season, and that appears to be the case again today: His Bargain Rating of 86 percent is tied for the top mark at the PG position. The big concern with Curry today is his matchup with the San Antonio Spurs. They’re currently allowing a Plus/Minus of -0.23 to fantasy-relevant PGs this season, and the over/under on this game has dropped by three points since opening. That said, Curry has had success in this matchup previously:
Value
Dejounte Murray leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel and should benefit from the pace-up spot against the Golden State Warriors. The Spurs have the largest pace differential (paceD) on the slate at +5.8, and Murray has historically provided the top Plus/Minus among the Spurs regulars when playing the Warriors:
Fast Break
Lonzo Ball is currently priced at just $7,000 on FanDuel, which is the cheapest he’s been since Game 2 of the season. He’s underperformed over his last five games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.25, but he does have a strong individual matchup today against Lillard, who ranked 60th out of 79 qualifiers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus last season (DRPM). Ball’s strong contributions in the peripheral statistics also gives him a higher ceiling than most for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shooting Guard
Stud
As bad as the Lakers have been against PGs recently, they’ve been even worse against SGs. They allowed a Plus/Minus of +2.27 to the position last season, which should benefit C.J. McCollum today. He’s fared well against them over the last two seasons:
However, like Lillard, McCollum has historically struggled with home back-to-backs, owning a Plus/Minus of -1.92 on FanDuel over 11 instances in the past two seasons.
Values
On a two-game slate, you’re likely going to need to consider some players for GPPs you normally wouldn’t on a full slate. Two of those guys today could be Pat Connaughton and Brandon Paul, both of whom are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. Connaughton routinely plays about 20 minutes a night and has the ability to score the basketball: He’s shooting 46 percent from the field and 45.5 percent from 3-point range this season. He would also see a boost in the event of a Blazers blowout – his best game of the season came in a 48-point rout of the Suns on opening night – although that doesn’t seem likely given the current seven-point spread.
Paul is coming off his best game of the season on Monday, scoring 30.25 fantasy points on DraftKings while playing roughly 29.5 minutes. The Spurs will likely need to play their wing players more minutes than normal in an uptempo game against the Warriors, which definitely makes Paul an intriguing contrarian option for GPPs.
Fast Break
Klay Thompson will likely garner some attention today given the lack of options at the position and his propensity for big games, but he has historically been a brutal fantasy producer against the Spurs:
He’s scored more than 28.6 fantasy points on FanDuel only once against them over the past three years, which isn’t surprising given that Danny Green ranked fourth among SGs in DRPM last season. It’s possible Green spends more time on Kevin Durant in this contest given the absence of Kawhi Leonard, but it’s not like seeing Kyle Anderson on defense is much of an upgrade: Anderson’s DRPM of +3.11 ranked second among all SFs last season.
Manu Ginobili is ancient at this point, but the old man can still get it done on occasion. He absolutely crushed the Warriors last season, exceeding value in all three regular season games and three out of four in the postseason, resulting in a staggering Plus/Minus for the year:
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is in a class of his own today at the SF position, costing nearly $4,000 more than the next priciest option on both sites. The Spurs have historically been a tough matchup for Durant – they’ve held him to an average Plus/Minus of -0.57 over the past three seasons – but this is obviously not the same defensive team without the presence of Leonard. Durant scored at least 52 fantasy points in three of the four games against the Spurs in the playoffs last season, which goes to show what he can potentially do against them without Kawhi shadowing him. It’s hard to fathom him not being the highest-scoring option of the day at SF: His current median projection is nearly 10 points higher than the ceiling projection of any other player at the position.
Values
Al-Farouq Aminu is expected to miss tonight’s contest after injuring his ankle on Wednesday, which would open up approximately 30 minutes in the Trail Blazers’ rotation today. One player who could potentially benefit is Maurice Harkless. Last season, Harkless averaged nearly 30 fantasy points in games without Aminu:
He leads the position with a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Evan Turner is another option to see more minutes for the Blazers without Aminu. He played over 36 last night and has generally been a larger part of the Blazers offense this year than he was in his first season. He’s capable of contributing in every category across the board.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram has scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last two games and is currently second on the team in minutes per game. He should have moderate ownership on both sites given the presence of elite stud options like Durant and value plays like Harkless and Turner, which definitely increases his appeal for GPPs. Ingram’s Upside Rating of 62 percent on FanDuel over the past year is the highest mark at the SF position.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge busted for the first time all season in his last contest, thanks mostly to seeing just 26 minutes of court time given the blowout. He continues to lead the team in usage in Leonard’s absence and is facing a Warriors team that has struggled with big men to start the season: They’ve allowed an average Plus/Minus of +4.66 to opposing PFs on FanDuel. The only real concern today is how Aldridge will fare in a pace-up environment. Historically, that hasn’t exactly suited his style of play:
Draymond Green will also likely guard him for the majority of the game, and his DRPM of +5.59 blew away the field at the PF position last season.
Value
Noah Vonleh has been listed as the starter in Aminu’s absence, but Portland big men Caleb Swanigan and Ed Davis could see increased roles as well. Davis has been the more productive player this season, averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute, and he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on DraftKings. Swanigan costs the absolute minimum on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Draymond Green has not really lived up to his price tag this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of -4.04 on FanDuel through his first eight contests. That has resulted in a salary decrease of $600 since opening night, however, and Draymond is always capable of putting up a huge game given his contributions in every category.
Julius Randle is averaging only 19 minutes a night this season, but he’s managed to be very productive in those minutes. He’s currently third in usage among Lakers regulars and has scored at least 29.9 fantasy points on FanDuel in three of his last four games. Aminu is an excellent defender – he was sixth among PFs in DRPM last season – which has helped Portland allow a Plus/Minus of -6.01 to opposing PFs so far this season. With Aminu out of the lineup, however, Randle should have a much easier matchup than the numbers suggest.
Center
Stud
Jusuf Nurkic is coming off his best game of the season against the Utah Jazz, scoring over 45 fantasy points and playing roughly 34 minutes. He should have a significantly easier matchup today against Brook Lopez and the Lakers: Lopez ranked 50th out of 69 qualifying centers in DRPM last season, and the Lakers have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.99 to centers so far this year on DraftKings. Nurkic’s $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent, and centers with comparable Bargain Ratings and salaries have historically been solid values on DraftKings:
Value
Pau Gasol has seen more run recently after the injury to Joffrey Lauvergne, playing at least 25 minutes and scoring at least 28.25 fantasy points in each of his last three contests. He remains affordable at just $5,400 on DraftKings and $6,100 on FanDuel, but it’s fair to question how much he’ll be able to stay on the court in today’s matchup: He played 23 minutes or less in six of seven contests with the Warriors last season. Still, given his average of 1.17 fantasy points per minute, he doesn’t exactly need to play a ton to hit value at his current salary.
Fast Break
Brook Lopez has seen his salary decrease by $2,100 since the start of the season on FanDuel, which is the largest decrease on the slate regardless of position. He’s currently playing roughly 20 minutes a night given the amount of options the Lakers have at the position, which has obviously resulted in lower-than-expected production from Lopez so far this season. It seems unlikely that he’ll play that few minutes all season, and if/when he does return to his typical 30 minutes a night, he’s going to be able to destroy this price tag. Even with just two games on tonight’s slate, Lopez should have very minimal ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
