Thursday brings a five-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets
Vegas: 217.5 over/under, Pelicans -5
Of the five games tonight, only three have Vegas totals over 210 points. And of those three, two have huge spreads: The Warriors are 13-point favorites over the Pistons, and the Spurs are 14.5-point favorites over the Lakers. The lone game with a juicy total and close spread is this one: The 15-24 Pelicans at the 8-29 Nets.
That fact makes Anthony Davis the strongest play in the slate, but he’s currently questionable with a bruised left hip sustained in Monday’s game. He played only 29 minutes in that contest versus the Knicks but still dropped 70.6 FD points on 40 real points and 18 rebounds. If he’s able to go, things could get ugly again, as he’ll face a Nets team that plays at the league’s fastest pace, averaging 104.1 possessions per game, and owns the fourth-worst defense, allowing a poor 108.5 points per 100 possessions. Davis is listed as a PF, but he’s been playing the center position for a couple weeks now. Brooklyn has been the worst team defending Cs this season (per our Trends tool):
Brow has the slate’s highest projected ceiling at 67.9 points on FD, where his $11,800 salary comes with eight Pro Trends and a 75 percent Bargain Rating.
In the first two games without Brow, it was unexpected Pels who exceeded value:
Cheick Diallo is currently on assignment for the Pelicans in the D-League, but the other guys who played well in Davis’ absence — Dante Cunningham, Terrence Jones, and Buddy Hield — are all worth considering in guaranteed prize pools. Hield struggled out of the gate during this rookie season, but his shooting has come back around and he’s now exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 4.60 FD points over his last nine games. Cunningham is certainly the thinnest of these plays sans Davis, while Jones would arguably be the best cash-game option. He owns a nice +3.21 FD Opponent Plus/Minus and would be in line for 30-plus minutes in Davis’ absence.
Jrue Holiday has a nice +3.04 FD Opponent Plus/Minus, but he’s also had elite matchups over his last three games against the Knicks, Celtics, and Hawks, and he played poorly:
He’s certainly fine in tournaments, but his recent low floor even in great matchups is concerning — Davis or no Davis.
The Pelicans have been stout defensively with Davis at center lately, and they now rank seventh in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing only 103.8 points per 100 possessions. Thus, Brook Lopez‘s tournament value largely depends on the status of Davis. If Brow is out, Lopez will face a small New Orleans frontcourt, and it’s not as if the Pels have been an incredible rebounding team with Davis: They rank 28th on the year, grabbing only 47.6 percent of the available boards. Lopez is cheap at $6,400 on DK, where he currently has 11 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Other than Lopez, no Net other than Bojan Bogdanovic gets enough minutes to be interesting in either contest format. This isn’t a great matchup for Bojan, but he is projected for 31.1 minutes and is only $4,400 on FD, where he has a high +4.32 Projected Plus/Minus and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. The Nets are currently implied for 106.5 points, the fourth-highest mark of the main slate. Points have to come from some non-Lopez player, and Bojan is a nice GPP bet to be that guy.
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
Vegas: 206.5 over/under, Knicks -3
Rajon Rondo re-entered the Chicago rotation last game . . .
. . . and he’s only $4,400 FD facing a Knicks team that is on a back-to-back and ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.1 points per 100 possessions.
The Bulls now are in a timeshare at PG with Rondo and Michael Carter-Williams, who is only $4,800 and still managed to hit value last game in Rondo’s return in 28.8 minutes of action. The Bulls were very short-handed that game with Jimmy Butler and Nikola Mirotic out, and they’re already both ruled out for tonight’s contest, which is a big reason the Bulls are currently 3.5-point dogs.
Per our NBA On/Off tool, in the only 2016-17 game sans Butler it was rookie SG Denzel Valentine who had the biggest performance, posting a +17.3 DK Plus/Minus in 30.2 minutes.
However, that was also without Dwyane Wade, who is likely to play tonight and soak up the majority of the usage without Butler. At only $6,800 DK and $6,900 FD, Wade should be a chalky cash-game option in an elite matchup.
Doug McDermott is likely to get the start at the SF spot, but he really struggled in the first game without Butler, scoring only six DK points in 24 minutes. It’s fine to go down that path again in tournaments — he’s only $3,800 FD and has a 98 percent Bargain Rating there — but beware of his low 5.7-point projected floor. Taj Gibson played well in that game and has now exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games. He likely won’t see heavy minutes regardless of who is in and out, which limits both his floor and ceiling. Bobby Portis could be a recency bias selection — he posted the second-highest DK Plus/Minus in Jimmy’s absence — but he’s projected for only 15.8 minutes.
The Knicks are playing awful basketball right now and just dropped a game on a last second shot by Philadelphia’s T.J. McConnell. The poor play has certainly affected Kristaps Porzingis, who has put up back-to-back duds, scoring 17.75 and 18.5 DK points in 27.6 and 23.9 minutes versus the 76ers and Pelicans. He’s made only six field-goal attempts over those two games and has been a non-factor just about everywhere on the floor. Because of the poor play, which could be related to a sore left Achilles he was dealing with last week, he’s not a cash-game option. However, against a Butler-less Chicago defense, his 47.8-point DK ceiling can’t be completely ignored in GPPs.
Carmelo Anthony has been equally disappointing of late, but he does get a nice bump today with Butler ruled out. Per our NBA Matchups tool, Melo will likely start versus McDermott, who has been one of the worst SF defenders in the league this year: His -1.47 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) ranks 76th out of 80 eligible SFs. McDermott has allowed 1.0 point per possession defending players in isolation this season . . .
. . . and Melo has gone ISO in 23.6 percent of his possessions, which could actually bump up even more tonight. Melo is a better play on DK, where his $7,300 salary comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
The last two Knicks players I’ll mention should be used with caution. Kyle O’Quinn exploded for 38.5 FD points last game against the 76ers, but he’s projected for only 16.3 minutes tonight and should have a tougher time against Gibson and Robin Lopez. Derrick Rose controversially got the start for the Knicks last game and played well, scoring 33.4 FD points and 25 real points in 31.7 minutes. That said, Chicago has actually been tough against opposing PGs this season — Rose owns a -0.42 FD Opponent Plus/Minus — and last night marked the first time Rose had exceeded value in five games.
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
Vegas: 212 over/under, Spurs -14.5
On the one hand, the Spurs are implied for 113.25 points against the Lakers, who play at the league’s sixth-fastest pace, averaging 100.4 possessions per game, and own the second-worst defense, allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions. On the other hand, the Spurs are incredibly deep and massive 14.5-point favorites. In the games in which they’ve been at least double-digit favorites, it hasn’t been pretty for the starters:
If we change the trend to include games with at least 12-point spreads, it gets uglier:
A lot of these guys are interesting in GPPs for different reasons. In these large-spread games, backups like Patty Mills and Jonathan Simmons have posted nice games at near-minimum salaries. Also, it is certainly possible for starters like Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard, and LaMarcus Aldridge to have uber-efficient games against one of the worst teams in the league and hit value in under 30 minutes. Also, there’s always a chance that the Lakers keep the game closer than expected and the starters actually play full minutes, although I’d like that narrative a little more if the game were in Los Angeles. None of these guys have enough safety to for cash games, but GPP exposure should absolutely be sprinkled on a lot of different Spurs tonight.
The Lakers are currently implied for a slate-low 99 points, which makes sense considering they’re facing a Spurs team that ranks second in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing only 101.5 points per 100 possessions. What’s even worse is that garbage time isn’t appealing against San Antonio: The Spurs’ backups, such as Mills and Dewayne Dedmon, are likely superior defenders to the starters. It’s fine to have minimal GPP exposure to talented guys with high ceilings like Julius Randle and D’Angelo Russell, who are both priced down on DK because of the matchup, but temper expectations.
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns
Vegas: 206.5 over/under, Mavericks -2
This game is an epic battle of pace: The Mavericks are the second-slowest team in the league, averaging only 93.3 possessions per game, while the Suns rank third in pace, averaging 102.5 possessions per game. That is a massive difference and one that almost immediately makes the Suns players collectively overpriced for cash games. I did a study on this type of game last year and found that high-paced teams are dragged down by their slow opponents, severely hurting their value.
On the Mavs side, Harrison Barnes remains a cash-game option: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last six games and has averaged a nice +4.65 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine. With Dirk Nowitzki playing more minutes lately, Barnes has been able to play more SF, which would match him up against T.J. Warren, whom he has the ability to beat:
And while we’re on the topic of matchups, this is unfair:
Dirk, who is a future Hall of Famer and has perhaps the hardest jump shot in the history of basketball to defend, will go up against rookie Marquese Chriss, who ranks 83rd out of 93 eligible PFs with a -0.54 DRPM. Dirk has played 30-plus minutes in his last two games and is only $5,500 on DK, where he has seven Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
The Mavs’ guards — Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, and Seth Curry — have all had poor games lately but are seeing nice minutes. The former two are projected for 30-plus minutes and are fine in GPPs at their price points. Matthews is especially intriguing at $4,700 on DK, where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
While this is a brutal matchup in terms of pace, it’s hard to ignore Eric Bledsoe‘s recent play:
He put up 52.0 DK points in 38.6 minutes last game against the Cavs and has now exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging an impressive +6.79 Plus/Minus over that time. At only $7,100 DK, he’s more than viable in GPPs even in the tough matchup: He’s currently the No. 1 PG in the Phan Model for DK, where he owns a position-high +5.15 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. When you shoot 12-of-18 against the defending champs, paceD matters very little.
Tyson Chandler and Devin Booker are also worthy of GPP exposure. Big men are typically less affected by pace concerns, and Dallas currently ranks dead last in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 46.4 percent of the available boards. Chandler’s scored at least 30 DK points in three straight games and has legitimate 15-plus rebound potential in this matchup. Booker is a little more thin, but he did just drop 42 FD points on 24 shots in his last game. He won’t get near that shot total in this slow-paced game, but at a 27.41 projected usage rate, he’s worth owning in tournaments.
Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors
Vegas: 219.5 over/under, Warriors -13
Like Hansel, Stephen Curry is so hot right now:
He’s put up at least 43 FD points in each of his last four games and has hit at least four 3-pointers in those contests. Unfortunately, he will face the Pistons, and even though the Warriors are still 13-point favorites and implied for a slate-high 115.75 points Steph has historically struggled against Detroit:
The reason for his struggles is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who is one of the best guard defenders in the league and has really held his own against Steph over the past few years. Curry hit value against him last time they played, but he was also only $8,000 DK at that time. He’s $9,000 tonight. It’s hard to fade Steph when he’s shooting hot, but he owns a -0.91 Opponent Plus/Minus and that undersells his matchup against KCP.
The other three of the ‘Big 4’ — Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson — all have highly-negative Opponent Plus/Minus values today:
Vegas suggests that targeting the Warriors is the optimal play today. They’re still excellent players with massive ceilings, but Detroit owns a top-10 defense, allowing 104.4 points per 100 possessions, and the Pistons have been stingy against DFS opponents. Don’t fade the Warriors altogether, but exercise caution.
On the Detroit side of the game, Golden State has turned into a brutal matchup, now ranking fourth in defensive efficiency this season, allowing only 101.7 points per 100 possessions. Several Pistons have been playing very well lately — notably, Tobias Harris and Andre Drummond — but their ceilings are limited against this elite defense. Tobias managed to hit value last game even while starting and he’s now exceeded salary-based expectations by 7.53 FD points over his last nine games:
He’s still too cheap at $6,000 on FD, where he has 10 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Drummond has the easiest one-on-one matchup for Detroit, facing Zaza Pachulia, who has struggled in pick-and-roll defense and defending on the block.
At only $7,500 on DK, he’s a worthy GPP target and has 13 Pro Trends. Finally, Reggie Jackson is probable and has a +6.97 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine games. He has a nice correlation with both Tobias and Drummond, so if you’re going to build lineups with those two guys, think about stacking them with Jackson, who is reasonably priced at $7,000 FD.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
