Thursday night brings a five-game slate, including a nationally-televised 76ers game.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard was held in check by the Bulls on Tuesday, and his history against the Rockets in the regular season isn’t awe-inspiring: 42.9 percent Consistency and a -2.91 Plus/Minus on DraftKings over the past seven games. The Rockets will welcome back Patrick Beverley after knee surgery less than a month ago. He’s expected to play his normal allocation of minutes in a starting role, but it’ll be his debut and it’s difficult to believe he’s fully conditioned to stay with Lillard the entire game. Lillard’s two best games this season have come against the Denver Nuggets. Outside of those games, he’s failed to eclipse 45 FanDuel points all but once. I think it’s a spot to be judicious with Lillard in cash games, but the slate-high 221 Vegas total warrants a few shares in tournaments, especially with the Rockets playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
Values
Jerian Grant and Tyler Johnson are likely to receive a boost in playing time depending on the statuses of Rajon Rondo and Goran Dragic, both of whom are questionable to play with ankle issues. Also, if George Hill (thumb) is cleared, he becomes a top play in cash games on FanDuel.
Grant is the tournament punt play because the Bulls-Jazz game is slated to tip off 150 minutes after every other game starts. Additionally, the Jazz are ranked fifth in defensive rating and last in pace. If Rondo’s status bleeds past lineup lock, both he and Grant become too risky to target.
Johnson has played at least 33 minutes in two straight games and is better applied in cash games on FanDuel if Dragic doesn’t play. In the last game, coach Erik Spoelstra utilized a seven-man rotation. Johnson ranks third on the Heat with 24.7 FanDuel points per game, and he’s slightly less volatile than Dion Waiters.
Leverage Play
John Wall is likely to play the second night of a back-to-back set. He was limited to seven minutes in Wednesday’s first half, and then scored 23 of his 27 points in the second half. After Lillard and Wall — and assuming Dragic, Hill, and Rondo are ruled out — Ricky Rubio is the only other option currently projected to play at least 30 minutes. I’m fine with Wall exposure because of what he said before last night’s game: “If I do play both, I probably won’t play the same amount of minutes as I play in one of the games.” He played 24 minutes total against the Sixers. If that number is increased (based on Wall’s comment), he should edge closer to 30 minutes. And the game starts early enough that you can pivot off Wall if he’s ruled out.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden was held in check by Andre Roberson on Wednesday, but the Trail Blazers don’t have anyone nearly as good defensively on their team. What they do have is the 27th-ranked defense, a mark worse even than the Rockets’ defense on a per-possession basis. In his last seven games against the Trail Blazers, Harden has averaged 58.54 FanDuel points and a +13.94 Plus/Minus.
Harden is priced at a season-high $12,400 on DraftKings, a salary that requires 59.65 points to meet expectations. Locking in Harden on DraftKings doesn’t offer much wiggle room on a five-game slate, and you’d have to hit on all the low-salary players. I’m more inclined to invest on FanDuel at $11,700 in cash games. He’s projected to be the highest-owned player in FD GPPs tonight.
Here’s a fun stat: Portland opponents are attempting a league-high 30.3 free throw attempts per game; Harden is averaging 9.4 free throw attempts per game.
Values
Rodney Hood missed the previous game because of illness, but he showed up at practice on Wednesday and should be cleared to play today. We already know Derrick Favors (knee) won’t play, but George Hill’s status looms for a game that starts 3.5 hours after lineups lock.
Josh Richardson is in the same boat as Tyler Johnson: No Dragic equals more minutes. When Dragic and Justise Winslow have been off the court this season, Hassan Whiteside leads the Heat with 1.4 points per minute and Richardson places second on the team with 0.8 FanDuel points per minute. Aside from Rodney McGruder, Richardson is the cheapest backcourt option on the Heat at $4,300.
Leverage Play
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the second-most expensive shooting guard on FanDuel, and the difference between him and the other two expensive shooting guards is $2,100. Justise Winslow (wrist) has been ruled out, and the Heat may roll out Rodney McGruder at small forward again. That would certainly benefit Giannis. His true hurdle will come in the form of Hassan Whiteside. Giannis leads the NBA in field goal attempts per game in the restricted area at 9.3. The Heat, courtesy of Whiteside, have limited opponents to a league-low 50.2 percent accuracy in the restricted area. The goal is to get Whiteside in foul trouble to open up the paint.
Small Forward
Studs
Jimmy Butler is the most expensive small forward on a slate in which the second tier in salary is more enticing. The Bulls will play on the road against the Jazz, a game with a slate-low 193 total. Rondo’s status has yet to be determined, and that will shake up the offensive dynamics. With Rondo off the court this season, Butler leads the team in usage rate at 35.3 percent and FanDuel points per minute at 1.4. If we don’t know whether Rondo will be available heading into lock, Butler becomes more of a tournament play.
Carmelo Anthony is the cheaper, chalkier play on DraftKings at small forward. If we discard the game in which he got ejected, he’s hit at least 35.75 DraftKings points in six straight games. That’s a bit higher than today’s implied point total of 34.65. Wings have consistently provided value on the season against the Wizards, who could be without Bradley Beal and John Wall.
Value
Andrew Wiggins isn’t cheap, but he costs less than similarly-priced players in Anthony and Gordon Hayward. Wiggins can be easily paired with any of the other cheap small forwards, and he’s playing in the game with the second-highest total against a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back set. Wiggins played more than 41 minutes in back-to-back games without Shabazz Muhammad and Brandon Rush, and he could easily achieve that level once more.
Leverage Play
Gordon Hayward doesn’t draw a good matchup against Butler, and he briefly exited the previous game after aggravating his dislocated finger. Hayward costs more than Anthony and Wiggins on DraftKings, and the Bulls and Jazz are ranked in the bottom-10 in pace. Like most of the Jazz players, he gains more offensive burden when Favors doesn’t play; further, Hill may not be available.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis scored a career-high 35 points last night, and since the only other expensive option at power forward is Jabari Parker, Porzingis has gained ‘Stud’ clearance. He’s attempted at least 15 shots in seven straight games, and over that time he leads the Knicks with 24.3 actual points per game. Porzingis is fairly cheap on both platforms, and he’s currently the top-rated power forward on each. The Knicks are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and that may mean fewer minutes for the older players on the team like Anthony, Derrick Rose, and Joakim Noah.
Value
Trey Lyles is projected to start for the Jazz, who will be without Derrick Favors and could be without George Hill. Boris Diaw started the first three games without Favors, but Lyles replaced Favors at halftime in the last game he exited early. Lyles has been erratic this season, but with Diaw playing his second game since returning from a right leg contusion, 30-plus minutes doesn’t seem like a stretch. He’ll probably get eaten alive by Taj Gibson on defense and in the rebounding category, but Lyles can counter on offense by taking Gibson to the perimeter; that will also make it easier for Hayward and Hood to attack the rim.
Leverage Plays
Gorgui Dieng has averaged 32.08 FanDuel points in four games against the Sixers over the previous two seasons. He’s the leverage play because Joel Embiid leads the league in fouls drawn per 36 minutes at 10.0. Dieng averages only 3.3 fouls in 30.1 minutes per game this year, but there’s still reason to believe he might have a short night: Myles Turner and Rudy Gobert both fouled out in less than 21 minutes against the Sixers earlier this season. Dieng’s salary has dropped $1,100 since the beginning of November after he was able to meet expectations in only two of the past seven contests. Dabbling in a few Dieng shares is certainly a contrarian move.
Jabari Parker ranks second in average FanDuel points per game among power forwards, and he’s the only one to provide 100 percent Consistency this season. That said, he’s been a high-variance player this season, posting at least 39 FanDuel points or no more than 24 FanDuel points in the past eight games. Tournament shares are preferred, but he’ll easily go overlooked when the decision is between him or Porzingis.
Center
Studs
It may have been the Sam Mitchell effect, but Karl-Anthony Towns played less than 25 minutes in both games versus the Sixers last season; he racked up four fouls in 10 minutes in the first meeting. He was also easily outplayed by Jahlil Okafor in both games. I’m more comfortable with Towns in tournaments based on the available centers on the slate, namely Embiid. The reason Towns intrigues me is because of how he demolished Nikola Jokic in their meeting earlier this season. I have to believe he’ll come out and attempt to take it to Embiid in a similar fashion.
Hassan Whiteside is two days removed from his highest-scoring DFS game this season. Today’s opponent, the Bucks, played the final 14 minutes of Wednesday’s game without John Henson, Greg Monroe, or Miles Plumlee. Centers have provided a +3.31 Plus/Minus on 71.4 percent Consistency this season against the Bucks. Whiteside is the safer play when compared t0 Towns, but he’s also more expensive. And, of course, he isn’t Embiid.
Value
Joel Embiid is still capped at roughly 24 minutes per game. He leads all centers in fantasy points per minute on both sites, and over the past five games, the Timberwolves are last in defensive rating at 113.9 points allowed per 100 possessions. With only one center slot on FanDuel, Embiid is the cash-game play. If he changed his last name to “Lyrics,” I’d say lock in those lyrics, Wayne Brady. His price isn’t much different on DraftKings, but you should be able to pair him with Whiteside in a tournament lineup.
Leverage Plays
There’s little reason to deviate from the top-three options, but Clint Capela has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. He could potentially see an increase in playing time since Nene rested on the second night of a back-to-back earlier this season. Capela played fewer minutes than Montrezl Harrell in that game and was thoroughly outplayed by him. The matchup against the Trail Blazers provides a +5.1 Opponent Plus/Minus and the opportunity for a double-double. The Trail Blazers are still last in the NBA in rebounding percentage and first in opponent rebounds per game. Capela is a danger to play limited minutes again because Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts has embraced the intentional foul strategy, and Capela is splitting minutes with Nene due to his foul shooting woes.
Rudy Gobert is another option to consider because he’s the same price as Embiid on DraftKings. Favors is not expected to play, and in the first game Favors sat this season, Gobert posted 34.5 DraftKings points. Hayward was also out of the lineup, and Gobert was pressed into 41 minutes of action. There’s also the angle of coach Quin Snyder benching Gobert in the Jazz’s last game. However, the Bulls don’t play anyone at center that’s a threat to take Gobert to the perimeter.
News Updates
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