Today’s four-game slate kicks off at 8pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Stephen Curry exited Wednesday’s game in the third quarter after tweaking his right ankle, but he returned and played 31 minutes. He plans on playing against the Nuggets, but coach Steve Kerr may have other ideas. There’s a chance that Curry will sit, and that changes my perception on the rest of the slate. The Warriors are playing their third game in four nights and traveling to Denver on the second night of a back-to-back set. The game starts an hour after lineups lock; hopefully we’ll have some clarification before then.
When Curry has been off the court this season, the Warriors’ Offensive Rating has dropped to 102.5, which would rank below average in the NBA on a team-wide level. He leads the team in usage rate (29.6 percent) and shot attempts. Shaun Livingston started the three games Curry missed last season, and he’d likely fill in as the de facto point guard. This all assumes Curry is given the night off, which Kerr hasn’t traditionally done unless someone is actually injured. The uncertainty actually makes Curry a leverage play on both sites and one better reserved for tournaments.
Values
Goran Dragic rates highly among point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and his salary has dropped at least $300 on both platforms since Monday’s game against the Thunder. Chicago has allowed the most assists per game this year, which is inviting for the Heat’s leader in assists at 6.2 per game. This game has a slate-low Vegas total of 200 and both teams rank in the bottom-10 in pace. However, the Heat have had two days off and the Bulls are playing their fifth game in seven days. I give the schedule advantage to the Heat and have no qualms rostering Dragic despite a down performance against a top-three defense last time out.
Tim Frazier had his highest-scoring DFS game against the Bucks earlier this month. A repeat 44.1-point FD performance doesn’t seem likely, but he’s priced at the same salary on FD ($5,500) as he was in their first meeting when he exceeded salary-based expectations by 22.09 points. In the two games since Lance Stephenson was waived and Archie Goodwin joined the roster, Frazier has played at least 32 minutes and notched 19 total assists. I can only assume Goodwin won’t play until he practices with the team, and that will leave Frazier unopposed as the starting point guard.
Leverage Play
Emmanuel Mudiay has made at least half of his shot attempts in the last two games. That ties the longest streak in his career of shooting at least 50 percent from the field. In the game after his 24-point first quarter explosion in Boston, his ownership was at 4.8 percent in FanDuel GPPs. The PG spot is ultimately a decision between rostering Curry, Dragic, and/or Frazier. Mudiay could be an afterthought, but you can’t deny his track record in home games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a shooting guard on FanDuel, and he leads all players with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.41. When the Bucks and Pelicans last played at the beginning of the month, Antetokounmpo missed a triple-double by three assists and notched 51.5 FanDuel points in 34 minutes. Although the Bucks are ranked 19th in pace, their fastest game this season (104.6 possessions) was against the Pelicans. Giannis was limited to 26 minutes in the previous game due to foul trouble, and that helps explain the recent drop-off in production. The Pelicans yield the most rebounds per game this season, and if he’s able to play his full complement of minutes, Antetokounmpo could challenge for another triple-double at home.
Value
Malcolm Brogdon has been the primary ball-handler in the second unit when Antetokounmpo and Matthew Dellavedova rest. Prior to his zero-assist performance in the last game, Brogdon recorded at least four assists in three consecutive games. He’s more of a manager than a true distributor playing alongside Greg Monroe and Michael Beasley. His ceiling is low, but he’s averaged 22.25 DraftKings points over the past four games while averaging 23.7 minutes per game — the fifth-highest mark on the Bucks.
Leverage Play
Over the previous two seasons, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes were the only Warriors starters to average a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings when facing the Nuggets. Klay has been heavily discounted this season due to his shooting struggles, and his ownership in this slate will depend on Curry’s status. The Nuggets and Warriors are top-six teams in pace this season, and if Curry does rest, Thompson will be afforded more touches. He barely hit value last night after scoring 18 points in the first quarter, but that game wasn’t representative of a normal basketball game, as the Mavericks rested their starters.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has played at least 31 minutes in every game this season and been on the court for every fourth quarter; Klay Thompson and Ian Clark are the only other two Warriors that can boast that last point. Durant’s salary dropped to a season-low $9,400 on DraftKings. He’s a must-play if Curry rests, as that will likely make Durant the primary ball-handler in the first and second units. When Curry has been off the court, Durant’s usage rate has climbed to 30.4 percent and his assist percentage has increased to 29.2 percent — 1.6 points higher than Curry’s season average.
Value
Danilo Gallinari leads the Nuggets with 37.4 minutes per game. Without Darrell Arthur and Wilson Chandler in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s blowout win over the Celtics, Gallinari played a team-high 41 minutes and all but the final 2:25 of the fourth quarter. The game had already been decided, but the Nuggets are thin on the wing without Will Barton (ankle); both Arthur (knee) and Chandler (knee) are questionable to play tonight. In six prior games against the Warriors, Gallo never scored less than today’s implied point total of 28.15 on DraftKings.
Leverage Play
Rudy Gay has been listed as questionable and probable in the past two games with a strained rib and played both times. He appears healthy now and is listed at the same price as Jimmy Butler on FanDuel ($7,600) and $200 more on DraftKings ($7,300). Butler’s salary oddly dropped $100 after his 66.5-point DK performance last night. Butler will be very popular, which should keep Gay’s ownership down.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the most expensive player on FanDuel and DraftKings. Durant is $1,900 cheaper on FanDuel, and DeMarcus Cousins is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings. We already have a one-game sample of how Davis performs against the Bucks: In their first meeting this season, Davis recorded 35 points, 15 rebounds, three steals, three blocks, and 18 free-throw attempts. He’s a better tournament target on FanDuel at $10,900, and in the last two games without Stephenson and a limited Terrence Jones, Davis averaged 51.6 FanDuel points — 5.89 points above today’s implied point total.
Value
If Larry Nance (concussion) is cleared to play without restriction, he should be considered on FanDuel at $3,900. In the three games before exiting Sunday’s game, he had averaged 28.7 FanDuel points per game. Otherwise, Taj Gibson, who’s failed to exceed salary-based expectations only once this season, emerges as the value play on FanDuel. He leads all power forwards with a Projected Plus/Minus of +6.5, and he joined Robin Lopez as the only starters to provide value in the second game of their first back-to-back this season. He’ll match up against Luke Babbitt, who has allowed 3.8 points over salary-based expectations on DK in the past year.
Leverage Play
Draymond Green is the only Warrior with 100 percent Consistency on FanDuel and DraftKings this season. The crowd may prefer Jabari Parker — his projected ownership on FanDuel leads all power forwards at 21-25 percent — but Green has missed today’s implied point total on DraftKings only once this year. Playing the second night of a back-to-back set in Denver is daunting, but if Curry gets ruled out, Green would assume more offensive responsibility.
Center
Studs
The Lakers have allowed a league-high 52.3 points in the paint this season. DeMarcus Cousins is sixth in the NBA with 12.2 points in the paint per game. Further, the Lakers have allowed opponents to shoot a league-high 67.9 percent inside the restricted area on a league-high 33.1 attempts per game. Cousins is shooting 67.2 percent in the restricted area, and he’s fourth in the NBA with a 35.0 percent usage rate. In his last five games against the Lakers, Cousins averaged 51.76 FanDuel points — 12.19 points above his implied point total today. This is a dream matchup for Cousins, and he rests at a season-low $9,500 on FanDuel.
Value
Hassan Whiteside isn’t in the ‘Stud’ category because the ‘Value’ section would have been empty otherwise. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel at +6.9, and he could have lower ownership after failing to hit salary-based expectations in two of his last three starts. The price drop to a season-low $8,200 on FanDuel certainly offers less risk. The Bulls are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, and the Heat — primarily Whiteside — lead the league with an opponent field goal percentage of 47.7 percent in the restricted area. Whiteside already has a triple-double against the Bulls in his career, and if you’re not building your team around Cousins, Whiteside is the next logical choice.
Leverage Play
The Warriors and Nuggets are top-three in allowing the most opponent field goals per game. Jusuf Nurkic has been marginalized in the past two games, but if the Nuggets are going to compete with the Warriors, they could rely on their frontcourt of Nurkic and Nikola Jokic. Unless coach Michael Malone decides to roll out Gallinari and Kenneth Faried at power forward and center, which he will certainly entertain, this could be a spot where Nurkic neutralizes the Warriors’ small lineup. He boasts the third-highest ceiling among centers today and should have low ownership with Cousins and Whiteside in the slate.
News Updates
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