The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook appears to be in a smash spot today against the Phoenix Suns. Tyson Chandler remains out for the Suns, and their defense has gone from bad to awful with him off the floor this season. They’re allowing 118.7 points per 100 possessions in that situation, and the Thunder’s resulting implied team total of 117 points represents an increase of more than 10 points compared to their season average (106.4). Westbrook has a great individual matchup as well, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94 on FanDuel.
While Westbrook is in a great spot, it’s possible that Stephen Curry is in an even better one. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.50 on FanDuel, which is the fourth-best mark among PGs on today’s slate. Curry is also significantly cheaper than Westbrook, and his $9,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. That said, it’s still hard to trust Curry for cash games given his poor recent production (-2.41 average Plus/Minus over his past 10 games) and the blowout potential (13-point spread).
Value
The Clippers remain shorthanded for today’s contest versus the Knicks, with Danilo Gallinari and Avery Bradley both already ruled out. That makes them an intriguing team to target given the Knicks’ defensive struggles, and the Clippers’ implied team total of 117.5 ranks second on today’s slate. Milos Teodosic has played 27 minutes in back-to-back games and has averaged 0.81 fantasy points per minute on the season. He seems underpriced on FanDuel, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Trey Burke has been impressive for the Knicks recently, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +9.69 on DraftKings in each of his past three games. He’s been dominating possessions while on the floor, resulting in an average of 1.24 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for only 26.1 minutes in our NBA Models, but that should still give him a chance to return value at his current $5,100 salary on DraftKings.
Kemba Walker has seen his price tag plummet on FanDuel, falling from $9,000 on Tuesday to just $7,800 today. That’s a much more reasonable salary for Walker, who has a nice matchup today versus the Philadelphia 76ers. They’re playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Walker has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.65.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Victor Oladipo features one of the biggest pricing discrepancies of the day between the two sites. He has a $10,000 salary on FanDuel and $8,900 salary on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on the latter. He’s in an intriguing spot today against the Milwaukee Bucks. On one hand, the Pacers are implied for just 103.75 points, which is the third-lowest mark on the slate. On the other hand, Oladipo appears to have a decent individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.15 on DraftKings.
Value
No value SG really jumps off the page on tonight’s slate, but Wesley Matthews looks like someone worth considering. He’s played over 31.5 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 0.79 fantasy points per minute over the past month. His salary has remained fair at $4,900 on FanDuel, and he has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.38 against the Chicago Bulls.
Fast Break
Lou Williams’ salary has started to creep up across the industry, but $8,000 on FanDuel seems fair given his elite matchup versus the Knicks. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel, and Williams has seen a usage bump of 2.2 percent with Bradley and Gallinari out of the lineup this season:
Bradley Beal has one of the toughest matchups of the day against the Toronto Raptors, who currently rank third in the league in defensive efficiency. It results in an implied team total of just 106.25 for the Wizards, and Beal has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.87. That said, he has been priced down to $7,900 on FanDuel in anticipation of the difficult matchup, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He could be worth some exposure in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off arguably his worst game of the season, scoring just 13.6 FanDuel points in a blowout loss to the Pistons on Wednesday. That said, it’s tough not to like him to bounce back today against the Pacers. No one at the position is projected to play more minutes than him (37.8), and that might be a conservative projection: He had played at least 39 minutes in four straight games prior to Wednesday’s blowout. The Bucks’ implied team total of 107.75 also represents a solid increase compared to their season average (104.9). Giannis is especially appealing today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Paul George might be the top option at the position on FanDuel. He’s been an awesome value of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.42 over his past 10 games and a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the past month. He also benefits from the same incredible matchup as Westbrook and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.60. He leads all SFs with 13 Pro Trends, and a comparable number of Pro Trends has historically led to success for comparably-priced SFs:
Value
Reggie Bullock has assumed a solid role for the Pistons, playing between 30 and 35 minutes. The Pistons have a fantastic matchup today against the Orlando Magic, giving Bullock an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14 on FanDuel. Teammate James Ennis could also be worth some consideration. He’s projected for only 23 minutes, but he’s priced at the dead minimum on FanDuel and has averaged 0.74 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
T.J. Warren is set to return after a one-game absence, which will likely have a negative impact on Josh Jackson. That said, Jackson has been phenomenal recently even with Warren in the lineup, averaging 1.04 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He still has appeal on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Otto Porter continues to offer nice value with John Wall sidelined due to injury. He’s exceeded 30 DraftKings points in nine straight games, culminating with a 51.5-point fantasy performance in his most recent game. He’s averaged a stout 1.11 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his $7,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Power Forward
Studs
The PF position is a little stronger than usual at the top today. Draymond Green has been extremely solid recently, posting a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over the past month. His price has actually decreased by $100 on FanDuel over that time frame, however, so he’s still very affordable despite his recent production. He has a nice matchup today versus the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.99.
Aaron Gordon just recently returned from injury, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games. He should see at least 31 minutes in this game and has averaged 1.11 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That puts him in play at $7,300 on DraftKings.
Of course, you could also just pay all the way up for Ben Simmons on FanDuel. He seems to have gotten over his midseason slump and is coming off a 47.8-point fantasy performance yesterday against the Cavs. They’re playing at home on the second leg of a back-to-back, but Simmons hasn’t seen a noticeable decline in that situation so far this season:
Value
Dwight Powell seems locked in to an expanded role for the Mavs at the moment. He’s played at least 32.5 minutes in back-to-back games, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects today against the Bulls. He’s averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his $5,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies have the potential to be really shorthanded today, especially at the PF position. Deyonta Davis has already been ruled out and JaMychal Green is a game-time decision. If both of those players are ruled out, it could result in a massive workload for Jarell Martin. He’s coming of a 35.5-point fantasy performance in his most recent contest and has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on DraftKings.
Paul Millsap played more than expected in his first game back from injury, turning in 25.75 DraftKings points in 23.5 minutes. He could theoretically see a bump in playing time today, which makes him intriguing at $5,200 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.07 fantasy points per minute so far this season and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.00 on DraftKings.
Center
Studs
Karl-Anthony Towns has been an awesome value over his past 10 games:
He’s in an interesting spot today against the Utah Jazz, who are obviously an elite defensive team. The Timberwolves’ implied team total of 100.5 is the lowest mark on the slate and represents a massive decrease compared to their season average (109.8). That said, Towns’ salary has been reduced to just $9,100 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He also has historically had decent success against Utah:
He’s worth considering at his reduced cost, especially with Jimmy Butler sidelined with an injury.
Nikola Jokic stands out as the best value on FanDuel by a considerable margin. He has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent, which dwarfs the Bargain Ratings for all of the other high-priced centers:
Jokic has also been an absolute monster recently, averaging 1.62 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That said, he does have a tough matchup against the Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.23.
Value
Alex Len should continue to start at center with Chandler sidelined, although his playing time has fluctuated in that situation over his past five games. Still, he’s averaged a nice 1.09 fantasy points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value at $5,100 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Myles Turner is the definition of a boom-or-bust fantasy option. He followed up a 51.2-point fantasy performance on Monday with a 14.5-point performance on Wednesday; that is typical of him so far this season. However, there is some reason for optimism today. Part of his poor play on Wednesday was due to reduced minutes in a blowout situation, and he should return to a normal workload today. He also has an elite matchup against the Bucks, who have been the second-worst rebounding team in the league. He seems like an ideal GPP target on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Marcin Gortat doesn’t see a lot of playing time these days, but he has still been effective in his limited minutes. He’s averaged 0.95 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his salary has been reduced to just $4,100 on FanDuel for today’s contest against the Raptors. He needs to see approximately 20 minutes to have a chance to hit value at his current salary, and he’s hit that threshold in three of his past four games.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
