The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is the highest-priced PG on FanDuel by $4,300, and he’s been worth it of late, averaging a +3.02 Plus/Minus on 60 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He’s gone for at least 60 fantasy points in three of his past four, and his usage has been sky-high during that time. He has a tough matchup in that the 76ers rank third this season in defensive efficiency, allowing just 102.4 points per 100 possessions, but they have been vulnerable to PGs, as evidenced by Westbrook’s position-high +2.79 Opponent Plus/Minus. The 76ers have solid defenders in Robert Covington and Ben Simmons, but those guys also have to worry about big wings like Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. Given the small slate and other PG options, Westbrook should be chalky.
Value
Ish Smith is projected for 30-plus minutes against the Cleveland Cavaliers, which makes him automatically in play. The Cavs took solace in that they at least weren’t as bad defensively as the Sacramento Kings, but no more: Cleveland now ranks dead last in defensive efficiency on the season, allowing an embarrassing 109.8 points/100. Just last week they gave up 148 points to the Thunder; Westbrook had 23 points, 20 assists, and nine rebounds in 34 minutes of action. Smith has hit value in six of his past 10 games, and he’s certainly a candidate to do so again versus this atrocious Cavs team.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry was outstanding last week against the Minnesota Timberwolves, scoring 53.5 FanDuel points and 40 real points in 33.5 minutes on the road. In the two games since, he’s been terrible, putting up a combined 14 real points on putrid 5-of-24 shooting. He’s in a great spot to bounce back, however, as he’ll get a Lakers team without Lonzo Ball. Per nbawowy, LA has allowed just 107.4 points/100 with Lonzo on versus 113.0 with him off.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan has been very up-and-down of late, but he’s the only SG that really qualifies as a ‘stud’: His $8,600 price tag on DraftKings is over $2,000 more expensive than any other option. This is a pace-up spot for the Raptors, and DeRozan gets the same benefit Lowry does from absence of Lonzo. He also gets them at home, where he’s posted a Plus/Minus differential of +2.5 since the beginning of last season. It’s likely a day to pay down at the SG spot, which means a lineup constructed around DeMar could be contrarian in tournaments.
Value
In 12 games this season with Lonzo, Jordan Clarkson has averaged nearly 30 minutes and 30.7 DraftKings points per game. He’s posted a 27.6 percent usage rate during that time, and his average of 1.06 DraftKings points shows that he has a decent floor, even in a tough matchup with the Toronto Raptors. Clarkson is especially valuable on DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
The Detroit SG options in Reggie Bullock and Avery Bradley both have massive Opponent Plus/Minus marks of +6.69 and +5.29, respectively, on DraftKings. The Cavs have been the worst team in the league against opposing wings, and these guys are especially cheap on FanDuel, where they come with Bargain Ratings of 97 and 93 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is coming off a solid game against the Pacers in which he scored 58.5 FanDuel points thanks to a 26-10-11-4 line. The Cavs desperately need a locked-in LeBron right now, as they’ve lost seven of their past 10 games. Still, he does present some downside, as he’s been a much worse fantasy asset this season with Isaiah Thomas on the floor versus off, averaging just 1.15 DraftKings points per game with IT3 versus 1.51 without him. For that reason, it might be wise to pay up for Westbrook instead of James, although Bron showed his ceiling last game with a superb triple-double.
Value
Jerryd Bayless is doubtful for the 76ers, which means the Philly backcourt rotation could be thinner than usual. In four games this season without both Bayless and J.J. Redick, Robert Covington has averaged over 30 minutes and a +4.1 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He’s been scorching in those minutes, posting a stellar 65.7 true shooting rate and averaging 1.1 points per possession. They will especially need him today against the long wings of the Thunder, and he has a strong matchup on the perimeter offensively with Andre Roberson now out for the year. He’s especially cheap on DraftKings, where his low $5,500 salary comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Paul George has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his past four games and has played between 36 and 37 minutes in the past three. He’ll have to play heavy minutes again to match up against Simmons, especially with Roberson now out for the season; PG is by far the Thunder’s best remaining wing defender. He’s been at his best this season against good teams, and especially in games with close spreads: He’s averaged 40.8 DraftKings points and a +4.93 Plus/Minus in 16 games this season with a spread of four or less.
Power Forward
Studs
LaMarcus Aldridge has been very up-and-down of late:
Still, he projects as a high value play considering how much the Spurs may have to run their offense through him. Kawhi Leonard and Rudy Gay remain out, and Manu Ginobili is questionable to suit up. In seven games without those three this season, Aldridge has led the team with 36.9 minutes per game; no other player has averaged 30. He’s also led the team with a 28.5 percent usage rate, and his 40.3 DraftKings points per game would be close to his expected total today at his current $8,700 price tag. Finally, he has a beautiful matchup against the Kings, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency and 27th in rebound rate.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein is out today for the Kings, which means both Skal Labissiere and Zach Randolph could get extra minutes in the frontcourt versus the Spurs. In the three games without WCS this season, ZBo has dominated, averaging 33.2 minutes per game and a ridiculous 45.6 DraftKings points per game. He won’t get that many minutes today considering the Kings want to play their young guys like Skal, but both are a value at their current price tags and projected roles. Make sure to buy them on the correct side, however: Skal, for instance, is a much better value on DraftKings, where his cheap $4,600 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris is yet another player competing against the Cavs defense and is thus another player to consider in fantasy. He’s been a poor asset of late, averaging a -1.60 FanDuel Plus/Minus on just 40 percent Consistency over his past 10 games, but he’s shown upside in this matchup before, exceeding value in seven of his past 10 matchups versus Cleveland. He leads all PFs with a +4.0 Opponent Plus/Minus today, and he’s quite cheap on FanDuel, evidenced by his 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Center
Studs
Andre Drummond put up 86.8 FanDuel points just two games ago thanks to a stupid 30-24 line against the Utah Jazz. He’s playing on the second leg of a road back-to-back tonight against the Cavs, but, again, it’s the Cavs. They’re the worst team in the league defensively, and they’ve been surprisingly bad on the boards, ranking 25th and grabbing just 48.6 percent of the available rebounds. He’ll have a slightly tougher go at it with Thompson playing more (see below), but he still has massive upside in this game and leads all centers in projected ceiling by at least seven fantasy points. On top of that, he should be somewhat contrarian given the likely chalkiness of Thompson.
Value
Tristan Thompson got 31.2 minutes last game against the Pacers, and the Cavs got the win 115-108. Considering Cleveland just let up 148 points to the Thunder last week, giving up only 108 is a huge victory. Thompson played well in that game on both sides of the ball, and he finished with 25.5 FanDuel points thanks to a 10-10 double-double. He should retain his role in this game, which means he’s far too cheap on FanDuel at $3,600. He should be one of the most popular players on the slate considering his +7.13 Projected Plus/Minus is nearly five points higher than that of any other player at any position.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas has absolutely smashed value of late:
Despite those eruptions, he hasn’t really seen a price increase: He’s just $5,700 against a Lakers team that has really regressed defensively of late. Val leads all centers in the slate with a +3.19 Opponent Plus/Minus, and he’s projected for just five to eight percent ownership in this small slate because of the juicy affair in the Detroit-Cleveland matchup. That’s incredibly enticing for GPPs.
Good luck!
Photo via Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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