The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook headlines the PG position on today’s slate and has an intriguing matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.38 on FanDuel, but that likely undersells how good this matchup is. The Clippers have played at the sixth-fastest pace this season, and they’ve allowed 109.9 points per 100 possessions since trading away Blake Griffin. The Thunder have an implied team total of 113 points on today’s slate, which represents an increase of over six points when compared to their seasonal average (106.9). The Thunder could also potentially be without Paul George, and if he’s out Westbrook will be tough to avoid: He’s averaged 39.2 minutes of playing time and a usage rate of 42 percent in three games without George this season:
Value
De’Aaron Fox has been solid recently, returning value in three straight games on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.89 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has played at least 33.5 minutes in each of his past two games. He has one of the best matchups at the position today against the Golden State Warriors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.30. He’s a stronger value today on DraftKings, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic is in a potential smash spot today against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Heat are going to be incredibly shorthanded, with Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson, and Hassan Whiteside joining Dion Waiters on the sidelines. Dragic has led the team with a 28.7 percent usage rate with all four players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.93 fantasy points per minute:
The Lakers provide Dragic with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.83 on FanDuel, and the Heat have an implied team total of 107.75. He has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel.
Terry Rozier has been priced all the way up to $8,200 on FanDuel, making him the second-most expensive PG on today’s slate. While that’s a hard price tag to stomach, Rozier has averaged an impressive 42.2 FanDuel points per game with both Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart out of the lineup this season:
He also has an elite matchup today with the Orlando Magic, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.90.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Lou Williams has failed to hit value in four straight games on FanDuel, but as a result his price has been decreased to just $7,200. So far this season, Williams has been a major value at a comparable salary:
He has a solid matchup today with the Thunder, who have allowed 110.2 points per 100 possessions since losing Andre Roberson to an injury.
Value
Wayne Ellington figures to see a healthy amount of playing time today given Miami’s current injury situation. He saw over 35.5 minutes in their last game against the Kings and has averaged 0.73 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where his $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell has looked like his old self of late, scoring at least 37.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He is coming off 34.5 minutes in his most recent contest and has averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s been particularly active over his past two games, posting a usage rate of at least 33.3 percent in both, and the Nets have the potentially to be slightly shorthanded with Allen Crabbe currently questionable.
Austin Rivers has SG eligibility on DraftKings in addition to PG eligilibity across the industry, and he’s been a reliable fantasy asset over the past month. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over his past 10 games on DraftKings, thanks in part to the sheer volume of minutes he’s playing. He’s seen at least 35.5 minutes in four of his past five games and has averaged 0.79 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.66 on DraftKings today against the Thunder, and his $5,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
The Warriors are going to be an important team to monitor heading into today’s slate. They are already without Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant is currently questionable with a rib injury. Head coach Steve Kerr has stated that he doesn’t want to “overplay” Durant while Curry and Thompson are out, so it’s possible that Kerr could exercise caution with Durant today. If Durant is active, he appears to be in a wonderful spot. He’s posted a usage rate of 39 percent with both Curry and Thompson off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.53 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel:
The Warriors haven’t played many competitive minutes this season with Curry, Thompson, and Durant off the floor, but Omri Casspi figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Durant can’t go. He’s averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute this season and could see upwards of 30 minutes given their current injury situation.
Value
Justice Winslow has been an awesome source of value recently:
He failed to return value in his most recent contest, but he did play 37.5 minutes in that game. He’s currently projected for 32.2 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.00 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That’ll play at $5,600 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Caris LeVert has been outstanding on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s played 29.5 minutes in two of his past three games, and it’s possible he could see an even larger workload today if Crabbe can’t suit up. He’s a strong value today on DraftKings, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Jayson Tatum was a bit of a mixed bag in his most recent contest. On the one hand, he put up a season-high 23 field goal attempts. On the other hand, he needed to play 46.5 minutes in a double-overtime game to return value. His salary has increased for today’s contest against the Magic, but he should continue to be one of the team leaders in usage with Irving sidelined.
Power Forward
Stud
Draymond Green will make his return today for the Warriors, which puts him in a pretty intriguing spot. He will likely see some sort of usage bump with both Curry and Thompson sidelined, but it’s fair to question how much of an impact that will have on him from a fantasy perspective. Green has always made more of an impact with his peripherals than with his scoring ability, so its possible that the Warriors being shorthanded could actually wind up hurting him. He’s been markedly worse with both Curry and Thompson off the floor so far this season, albeit in a limited amount of minutes:
His matchup with the Kings is also less than ideal, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.73. Still, he’s definitely in consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Values
The Heat feature a trio of PFs who look like potential values today. Let’s start with James Johnson. He’s coming off one of his best fantasy performances of the season, scoring 47.5 FanDuel points in 33.5 minutes against the Kings. That game did go into overtime, but that still puts him on pace for around 28 minutes on today’s slate if the rotation doesn’t change. He’s averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and that combination of playing time and production figures to make him a solid value at $4,700.
Bam Adebayo started in center in place of Whiteside in their most recent contest and figures to occupy that role again today. He’s the cheapest PF for Miami on today’s slate and has averaged a very respectable 1.01 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Finally, Kelly Olynyk has been the best value of the trio recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven straight games. He’s averaged 1.12 fantasy points per minute over the past month, but he’s also the most expensive of the bunch at $5,500 on FanDuel.
All three of these options are in terrific spots against the Los Angeles Lakers, with each possessing an Opponent Plus/Minus of at least +3.75. Playing two of these guys together is definitely viable, especially on FanDuel, where each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 95 percent.
Fast Break
Julius Randle has been outstanding recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.88 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. Despite that fact, his salary has increased by only $100 over that time frame, and his current $7,400 price tag gives him a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Tobias Harris has been even better than Randle over his past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.14. He has an excellent matchup with the Thunder, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.69, and he’s one of the only top PFs with a Bargain Rating that’s better on DraftKings than FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid owns one of the top matchups of the day regardless of position against the Brooklyn Nets. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.25 on DraftKings, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 113.5 is the top mark on today’s slate. Embiid has historically fared well in this matchup:
He did disappoint in his most recent outing with the Nets, but that was mainly due to seeing reduced minutes in a blowout. That’s certainly a possibility on today’s slate as well — the Nets are currently 8.5-point underdogs in Philly — but Embiid should smash in this matchup if it does stay close. He’s extremely appealing on DraftKings, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Value
Today’s slate doesn’t look like a good one for value at the center position. That said, David West could be worth a look on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.26 fantasy points per minute this season and could see some additional run today for the shorthanded Warriors. He also has an excellent matchup with the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.86. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan has been a rebound monster recently, pulling down at least 18 boards in six of his past seven games. He has a tough on-paper matchup with the Thunder, but that concern would be mitigated if Steven Adams is unable to suit up.
Al Horford will rejoin the Celtics lineup today, and he has a chance to be a large part of their offense. So far this season, he’s seen a team-high usage bump of 4.8 percentage points with Irving off the court, resulting in an average of 38.23 fantasy points per 36 minutes:
He’s one of the top center values on FanDuel, where his 60 percent Bargain Rating is nearly double the next best mark among centers priced above $4,800.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
