The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
There are some huge Vegas totals on the board today, but they also come with large spreads. There are four games with double-digit spreads currently, and they all involve the high-priced point guards:
Using the Trends tool, here’s how those top guys have fared as double-digit favs over the past two seasons:
- Russell Westbrook: 59.4 DraftKings PPG, +2.4 Plus/Minus
- Stephen Curry: 46.8 DraftKings PPG, +3.1 Plus/Minus
- Kyrie Irving: 42.9 DraftKings PPG, +1.0 Plus/Minus
- Kyle Lowry: 38.1 DraftKings PPG, -0.5 Plus/Minus
Westbrook seems to be in an especially good spot against the Orlando Magic, who have been the worst squad against opposing PGs this season, evidenced by his sky-high +6.46 Opponent Plus/Minus. Further, he’s been a big frontrunner: Over the past two seasons, he’s crushed value against teams with a win percentage of no more than 40 percent.
Value
Despite Westbrook’s great spot, it seems like a solid day to pay down at the position. Trey Burke has crushed value over his past two games, putting up 40.5 and 44.5 DraftKings points against the Celtics and Magic, respectively. He hasn’t exceeded 30 minutes in those two, but his usage rates of 33.9 and 32.0 percent more than make up for that. He’s taken a combined 41 shots during those games and seems to be a heavy part of the Knicks’ tanking plans. He can slide up to the SG spot alongside Emmanuel Mudiay, which gives him a decent minutes floor. The 2018 Knicks, everyone.
Fast Break
Elfrid Payton has a huge +5.08 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Pelicans on FanDuel, where he comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating. In five games with the Suns, he’s averaged 33.4 minutes and 37.1 FanDuel points per game. Those numbers would be more than enough to hit value at his $7,500 price tag.
Yogi Ferrell has seen a minutes bump since Dallas traded away Devin Harris, culminating in 35.2 minutes of action in Saturday’s loss to the Jazz. At $4,000 on FanDuel, that’ll play.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has been a bit up-and-down in his most recent matchups versus the Jazz:
Further, he’s historically struggled in road back-to-backs, averaging a -0.49 FanDuel Plus/Minus on just 55.0 percent Consistency in 40 such instances since 2014. And to make matters worse, Utah has been the worst place for a road B2B during that time span: Players have averaged a league-worst -3.0 Plus/Minus in those games. He obviously has a massive ceiling on any slate, but he’s not a must-play in this spot.
Value
Jamal Crawford played 27.3 minutes last game and will likely have to play a bit more with Jimmy Butler out for the foreseeable future. Butler has missed seven games this season for the Wolves, and in those Crawford averaged 25.4 minutes, a 26.3 percent usage rate, and 26.6 DraftKings points per game. Those numbers won’t blow you away, but the dude is just $3,800; that’s more than enough for him to hit value. The biggest concern with Minnesota in the long term is how bad they’ve been without Jimmy. Look at those net ratings . . .
. . . but that’s less of a big deal today against the lowly Sacramento Kings.
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday is playing absolutely massive minutes of late, going 41.3 yesterday in a great overtime game vs. the Bucks. He finished with 36 points, nine rebounds, and six assists — good for 59.8 FanDuel points. Playing that many minutes in a back-to-back isn’t ideal, but he’s at least at home and against the Phoenix Suns, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Jrue has a nice +3.86 Opponent Plus/Minus and owns 11 Pro Trends.
Small Forward
Stud
There are only two players priced above $7,000 on FanDuel today in Paul George ($8,700) and Kevin Durant ($10,200). They’ve been very different players over their past 10 games:
- George: +5.53 Plus/Minus, 70 percent Consistency
- Durant: -3.98 Plus/Minus, 30 percent Consistency
Both have huge spreads against tanking teams, and this season neither has been good as a double-digit fav:
Both profile as GPP-only plays, and George leads the tandem in Opponent Plus/Minus and Pro Trends.
Value
In the seven games sans Butler this season, Nemanja Bjelica has led the team with a huge +10.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus differential. He has averaged over 30 minutes in those games, posting 23.8 DraftKings points in the process. He’s not a big usage guy — he’s averaged a 15.5 percent mark — but can contribute to the box score in a variety of categories. He provides much-needed shooting in the offense without Butler, as he’s hit a ridiculous 42.3 percent of his 3s this year. Especially against the awful Kings, he’s a fairly easy play at just $4,700.
Fast Break
David Nwaba doesn’t have a huge ceiling, but he’s an efficient scorer, averaging a 54.3 percent field goal rate, and he has rebounding upside. Over his past two games, he’s averaged 33 minutes and nearly double-doubled in each. He’s still fairly priced at $5,500 on FanDuel and has a solid matchup against a Brooklyn team that ranks sixth in pace.
T.J. Warren has gone for 36.1 and 43.1 FanDuel points over his past two games, during which he’s averaged over 35 minutes. He has a solid matchup against the Pels in what should be an up-and-down game: Both teams rank in the top-four this season in pace.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis still has PF eligibility on DraftKings, where he’s the highest-priced option at $11,700. The Pels have been on a ridiculous offensive run lately, and Brow has been a big reason. Look at these games:
The dude is filling it up from every area in the box score and is thus the most scary fade in DFS right now. He should continue to play huge minutes as the Pels push for a playoff spot, and he’s in a brilliant game environment against the Suns, who rank fourth in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. He’s a better buy today on DraftKings, where he comes with a +3.74 Opponent Plus/Minus and 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
John Collins remains a nice value and has gone for 30-plus minutes in each of his past two games with Ersan Ilyasova now gone to Philly. He’s hit value in those games, which is impressive considering he’s posted really low usage rates of 9.6 and 16.4 percent. He has an excellent match up against the Lakers, who are much stronger defensively on the perimeter with Lonzo Ball and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope than they are down low. As a result, Collins has one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus marks of the day at +3.58. At $5,800 he’s a safe cash-game option yet again.
Fast Break
There could be some GPP value in buying low on guys who have played poorly of late. Derrick Favors is one example, as he’s gone for 25.7 and 20.8 FanDuel points in his past two games after going for 36-plus in his prior three. His minutes have still been solid — he got 31.0 Saturday against the Mavericks — and we’re projecting him around that mark today. It will be interesting to see rotations tonight against Houston. Will Houston force Utah to play small? How will that affect Favors?
Another guy I don’t mind buying low on is Lauri Markkanen. He’s been atrocious lately, but it hasn’t been for a lack of playing time. He’s gone for over 31 minutes in his past two games despite going a combined 2-of-16 from the field. He’s a great shooter, so that won’t continue, and he has a nice get-right spot against the Nets. He’s especially intriguing on DraftKings, where his $5,500 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Center
Stud
The Wolves are definitely Karl-Anthony Towns‘ team now that Butler is out. He’ll have to play a ton of minutes as the Wolves push for playoff seeding, and he’ll use a ton of possessions. In two meetings vs. the Kings last season, Towns went for 56.5 and 69.5 DraftKings points, and it honestly could’ve been more given his elite offensive efficiency. He has a ridiculous +5.08 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Kings, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency on the year. Losing Jimmy hurts, but this is a great game for the Wolves to get KAT confident and going for the stretch run toward the playoffs.
Value
Alex Len has destroyed value over his past three games, during which he’s started for Tyson Chandler:
He’s been priced up today but not nearly enough. He’s only at $5,200 on FanDuel, where he comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and leads all players with a +7.86 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s in a great game environment against the fast-paced Pels, and he’ll get them without Boogie, which means they’ll likely play smaller with Brow at center. Foul trouble is thus less of an issue. He’s going to be one of the chalkiest players in the slate.
Fast Break
Julius Randle has been on point lately, posting a +4.61 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his past 10 games. He’s been over 40 fantasy points per game over his past three, and he’s in about as good of a spot you’ll find on the slate. He faces the lowly Atlanta Hawks, who are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and especially atrocious on the glass, ranking 26th in rebound rate.
If you want to buy low on Lauri, as mentioned above, look at Cristiano Felicio, too. He was terrible in his first game starting, getting just 11.6 minutes and posting only 9.8 DraftKings points against Joel Embiid and the 76ers. In the next game, he put up 22.3 fantasy points and got over 30 minutes. He has one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus marks of the day, and he’s still incredibly cheap at just $3,600.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Photo credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
